Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the suspension of underground mining operations at the Kakula mine due to a seismic event, with updates on recovery efforts and production guidance adjustments from Ivanhoe Mines, in which the company holds a stake [1][2][3] Group 1: Mining Operations Update - The Kakula underground mining operations were suspended due to a seismic event, but the pumping capacity has stabilized the underground water level [1] - Mining activities in the western section of Kakula are expected to resume on June 7, 2025, while the eastern section will restart as soon as possible, focusing on developing access to new mining areas [1] - The new mining area development in the far eastern section is expected to be completed by the second quarter of 2026, with pumping operations in the eastern section starting in August 2025 and concluding in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Guidance - The first and second phase concentrators at the Kamoa-Kakula mine are operating at approximately 50% capacity, processing ore from surface stockpiles [2] - As mining operations in the western section resume, the concentrators will see an increase in ore supply, with production ramping up for the remainder of 2025 [2] - The production guidance for 2025 has been adjusted to 370,000 to 420,000 tons of copper metal in concentrate, reflecting known and unknown risks and uncertainties [3] - The target for approximately 600,000 tons of copper production in 2026 has been withdrawn by Ivanhoe Mines [3]

Group 1 - CITIC Metal's affiliate, Ivanhoe Mines, reported progress on the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where underground operations were paused due to a seismic event [1] - The Kakula underground mine's dewatering capacity has stabilized, with work in the western section resuming on June 7, 2025, while the eastern section will restart mining operations soon [1][2] - New mining areas in the far eastern section are expected to be developed by the second quarter of 2026, with dewatering operations in the eastern section anticipated to begin in August 2025 and complete by the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The first and second concentrators at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine are operating at approximately 50% capacity, processing ore from surface stockpiles [2] - As mining operations in the western section resume, the concentrators will see an increase in ore supply, with production ramping up for the remainder of 2025 [2] - The smelter on-site is expected to begin operations in September 2025, with the first batch of anode copper produced in October [2] Group 3 - Preliminary investigations indicated that the seismic event originated from a high rock extraction rate area in the eastern section of the Kakula mine, leading to stress redistribution and yielding deformation in the mining pillars [3] - The production guidance for 2025 has been updated to 370,000 to 420,000 tons of copper concentrate, reflecting known and unknown risks and uncertainties [3] - Ivanhoe Mines has withdrawn its target of approximately 600,000 tons of copper production for 2026 due to the seismic event [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report Currently, downstream consumption is declining due to holiday effects, and the short - term operating rates of copper products and wire and cable may still face pressure. However, the supply at the mine end is still highly disrupted. The continuously low TC price and the strong performance of silver drive up the copper price. Therefore, for copper, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On June 11, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,150 yuan/ton and closed at 79,290 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,740 yuan/ton and closed at 78,570 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] Spot Situation Near the delivery date, the monthly spread did not improve significantly. Sellers quoted prices above par and were reluctant to sell at a discount. The price difference between brands of flat - water copper converged. The procurement and sales sentiment improved. In the latter half of the week, the supply of flat - water copper was not expected to be loose. Downstream buyers pressured prices due to high copper prices, while sellers were reluctant to sell below par. Some Russian copper was expected to arrive at the end of the week, and downstream buyers were likely to purchase at low prices [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: US May CPI data were all lower than expected, with core CPI only rising 0.1%. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points. Iran's defense minister said Iran would attack US military bases in the region if the nuclear negotiations failed. The possibility of the sixth - round Iran - US nuclear negotiations over the weekend was decreasing. The EU hoped to extend the trade negotiation time, and the Trump administration was willing to extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period if there was "sincerity" in the negotiations [3] - **Mine End**: An American mining project in Nevada attracted the attention of the US Export - Import Bank, which intended to provide $896 million to support a company in building a copper - molybdenum mine. In April 2025, Codelco's copper production increased by 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons; Escondida's copper production increased by 31% year - on - year to 128,400 tons; Collahuasi's copper production decreased by 13.5% year - on - year to 36,600 tons [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In May, LME's Russian copper inventory decreased by 27,350 tons, including 14,800 tons of "Class 2" Russian copper. The overall LME copper market inventory dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years [5] - **Consumption**: From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 74.87%, 1.03 percentage points lower than the previous week and 2.27 percentage points lower than market expectations. The copper cable industry's operating rate was 76.08%, down 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. Some enterprises' new orders decreased by about 10% month - on - month. From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 119,450 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 373 tons to 33,373 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,500 tons, a change of 700 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.12） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：78700-81000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，世行在报告中预计， 今年发达经济体经济将增长 1.2%，比此前预测低 0.5 个百分点。其中，将美国经济增速从此前的 2.3%大幅下调至 1.4%。欧元区和日本的经 济增速均被下调至 0.7%。 2、供给方面，2025 年 4 月份智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)铜产量同比增加 20.5%至 11.46 万吨，得益于部分矿山技改完成。必和必拓旗下的 Escondida 铜矿 4 月份铜产量同比 增长 31%至 12.84 万吨，这反映高品位矿石的开采效率提升。由嘉能可和英美资源集团联 合经营的另一座大型铜矿 Collahuasi4 月份铜产量同比下降 13.5%至 3.66 万吨，归因于矿石 品位下降或运营调整。全球铜精矿和废铜短期的格局持续。 3、需求方面，5 月，新能源汽车表现尤为突出，单月销量达 130.7 万辆，同比增长 36.9%。电解铜现货市场方面，重庆地区下游消费进入淡季，叠加 ...

文/珠玑说 (本文所有内容皆有官方可靠信源，具体资料赘述文章结尾) 2015年，全球铜价跌到地板，矿业公司人人自危，急着甩卖资产，中国紫金矿业却逆势而上，砸下25.2亿人民币，买下了远在非洲一个听都没听过的铜 矿近一半股份。 当时这笔"豪赌"充满争议，没人想到，这个看似"坑"的项目，几年后竟摇身一变，成了坐拥万亿铜财富、改变紫金矿业命运的世界级宝藏，紫金矿业是 怎么做到这一点的？ 时间倒回2015年，全球大宗商品市场那叫一个惨，油价、铁矿石，还有跟工业生产关系最铁的铜，价格全线崩盘，国际铜期货价那年一下就跌了四分之 一，创了七年里最大的年度跌幅，市场上人心惶惶，铜价最低的时候，一吨连四千七百美元都保不住。 矿业行情这么差，全世界那些矿业大佬们一个个都急着踩刹车，要么缩减投资，要么变卖家当保命，整个行业都跟霜打的茄子一样。 可偏偏这时候，别人都怕得不行，中国的紫金矿业却像个独行侠，眼光毒辣得像鹰隼，直勾勾盯上了远在天边的非洲大陆——那个铜矿储量高达八千万 吨，铜出口占外汇收入四成以上，被叫做"世界地质奇迹"的刚果（金）。 是坑还是矿？那笔25亿的世纪豪赌 当大多数公司都捂紧钱袋子，信奉"现金为王"的时候，紫金矿 ...

智通财经6月11日电，智利国家铜业委员会称，智利Collahuasi矿4月份铜产量同比下降13.5%至36,600 吨。 ...

智利国家铜业公司称，4月铜产量同比增长20.5%，达到11.46万吨。(智通财经) ...

智通财经6月11日电，智利国家铜业公司称，4月铜产量同比增长20.5%，达到114600吨。 ...

智利国家铜业公司：4月铜产量同比增长20.5%，达到114600吨。 ...

[Table_Main] 矿业巨头启示录系列之二：跨越时空的 成长，打造一流铜企——FCX 和紫金 报告要点 本篇作为"矿业巨头启示录系列报告"的第二篇，选取自由港（FCX）和紫金 矿业进行分析。我们选取的 2 家公司均属于铜行业的龙头，但所处的阶段有 所不同。紫金作为高速成长的企业，其并购意识、降本文化、培养核心技术等 方面值得我们学习；FCX/PD（FCX"蛇吞象"并购 PD 之后，一举成为最大 的铜企）经历过多轮并购之后，已进入较为成熟阶段，"如何将现有资产利用 最大化"、"如何能从周期性行业波动中屹立不倒"等方面，值得我们深思。 从生命周期来看： 1）发展初期：紫金和 PD 均先深耕本土铜矿。 紫金和 FCX/PD 以自有矿山入手，借力"协同效应"，从而绘制"以点到面" 的国内矿业版图。其中，并购扩张的契机包括"顺势而为"（紫金矿业）、"收 购破产同行"（PD）等。 2）步入成长快车道：并购铸就矿业龙头。 从并购资产类别来看，FCX/PD 以收购公司为主，收购契机是"在确保自己抗 风险能力较强的情况下，收购破产的竞争对手，从而获得多个棕地矿山资源"； 紫金早期更多偏向以收购单个矿山为主，收购策略主要看 ...