新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 需求相对偏淡 但宏观因素令铜价维持偏强态势 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-06，沪铜主力合约开于 100890元/吨，收于 105320元/吨，较前一交易日收盘3.92%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于104480元/吨，收于 104600 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.68%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价呈现贴水100元至升水60元区间，均价报贴水20元，较昨日下跌55元。 期铜主力早盘自102880元攀升至104100元后涨幅收窄。市场方面，平水铜由早间升水迅速转为贴水成交，午后贴 水扩大至100-70元，交投迟滞。预计高铜价将继续抑制需求，现货维持贴水格局，但需留意交割前可能的收货行为。 重要资讯汇总： 地缘方面，一名美国高级官员表示，特朗普总统及其团队正在讨论多种获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括从丹麦购买该 领土、与格陵兰建立自由联系协定，军事手段亦被列为选项之一。该官员称，特朗普希望在其本届任期内完成对 格陵兰岛的获取，并表示这一议题"不会消失"。白宫方面将获取格陵兰岛视为国家安全优先事项，尽管部分北约 领导人提出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips. The upward drive for copper prices comes from the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the long - term broad - money cycle, while the supply - side problems such as low copper concentrate processing fees and production disruptions, and the demand from the new energy sector support the copper price. However, factors like high inventory, the substitution of aluminum for copper, and weak demand in the real estate and home appliance sectors may limit the upside space [6][7]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1.后市研判 (Outlook for the Market) - In December, copper prices will be in a high - level oscillation. The operation strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. The increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the long - term broad - money cycle provide upward drive. On the supply side, problems such as the decline in global copper ore grade, slow new project commissioning, and insufficient capital expenditure are difficult to solve in the short term, and production disruptions in major producing areas lead to lower - than - expected annual production growth. The demand from the automotive and new energy sectors provides support, but high inventory and the substitution of aluminum for copper may limit the upside [6][7]. 2.行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, copper prices showed a high - level oscillation trend. The implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the US government shutdown event weakened the macro - driving force [9][10]. 3.宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspects) - **US Situation**: The US manufacturing PMI has contracted for eight consecutive months, and the overall labor demand is slowing down. However, the service PMI has reached an eight - month high. Although the performance and outlook of NVIDIA are excellent, the market doubts about its valuation bubble. The dovish shift of the previous hawkish officials has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts in December to 75%, and the market has priced in more than three interest rate cuts within a year, which provides upward drive for copper prices [16]. - **China Situation**: In October, China's manufacturing PMI declined, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The overall national economy was running smoothly, and new growth drivers continued to expand. The government has introduced policies to promote consumption, and the market is concerned about the introduction of more growth - stabilizing policies [18][21]. 4.基本面 (Fundamental Aspects) - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In October 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,451,487.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.08%. The supply from major suppliers increased, but that from other sources decreased, and the tight supply of copper concentrate remained difficult to ease [22]. - **Processing Fees**: As of the week of November 21, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 41.81 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.06 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The tight copper concentrate supply situation led to low processing fees and high pressure on the year - end negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas miners [25]. - **Inventory**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the US has absorbed a large amount of refined copper globally. Although the siphon effect is gradually weakening, South American copper still prefers to be exported to the US. The total global copper inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, remaining above the central level [28]. - **Production**: In October 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Due to smelter overhauls, the production decreased month - on - month, and the impact will be more evident in December [36]. - **Imports and Exports**: In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,144.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. Exports were 65,945 tons, a year - on - year increase of more than five times and a month - on - month increase of nearly 1.5 times [45]. - **Waste Copper**: In October, China's waste copper imports were 196,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. However, the low domestic waste copper utilization rate limited the demand for recycled copper raw materials [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is conducive to the substitution of aluminum for copper and suppresses copper consumption [31]. - **Downstream Products**: In October, the output of copper strips, copper rods, and other products decreased month - on - month due to high copper prices [48][52]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment period, and the demand for copper in the real estate sector is suppressed [56]. - **New Energy**: In October 2025, China's new energy vehicle production was 1.71 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. The new energy power generation sector maintained a high - growth trend, providing marginal demand for copper [61]. - **Home Appliances**: In October 2025, the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased year - on - year. Although there was some subsidy release in November - December, the home appliance market was still under pressure [64].

Group 1: Resource Acquisition and Development - The company is focusing on resource replacement and increasing reserves through geological research and exploration activities in various mining areas [2][3] - Currently, the company owns several key mines, including the Pulang Copper Mine and the Dahongshan Copper Mine, located in the Sanjiang mineralization belt, which has good geological conditions and exploration potential [2] - The company plans to acquire 40% of Liangshan Mining from Yunnan Copper Group, which will enhance its resource reserves upon completion of the transaction [3][4] Group 2: Financial and Operational Updates - The acquisition of Liangshan Mining is expected to resolve industry competition issues and enhance the company's competitive edge due to Liangshan's resource advantages and profitability [5] - Liangshan Mining has an annual production capacity of approximately 13,000 tons of copper concentrate and 119,000 tons of anode copper, with a copper metal reserve of 779,700 tons as of March 2025 [4] - The company has faced a significant decline in net profit year-on-year due to low copper smelting processing fees and increased production costs [8] Group 3: Market Conditions and Strategic Responses - The rise in gold prices has limited positive impact on the company's overall performance, as most gold comes from purchased copper concentrates [6] - The company is implementing strategies to address the decline in processing fees, including focusing on resource optimization and cost reduction initiatives [9] - The company is closely monitoring copper price trends influenced by global economic conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and market speculation [11] Group 4: Risk Management and Financial Strategies - The company employs hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with raw material prices and foreign exchange fluctuations [12] - The company has maintained stable long-term relationships with suppliers to secure raw material supply and optimize procurement costs [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side overseas mine resumption and domestic anode copper capacity release bring increments, but the low operating rate of the copper processing industry on the demand - side limits the upside space. Domestic inventory depletion and the narrowing of LME backwardation support the price. There is a risk of price correction at high levels due to downstream resistance after the copper price breaks through 86,000 yuan/ton [6] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, ranging from 84,500 to 87,500 yuan/ton [39] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - As of November 10, the SHFE copper main - contract price rose slightly to 86,490 yuan/ton, a 0.65% increase from November 7. The LME copper price remained stable, closing at $10,695/ton on November 7, a 0.07% increase from November 4. The basis showed significant differentiation in spot premiums and discounts [1] - The LME copper open interest decreased slightly, with the open interest on November 7 decreasing by 1,670 lots to 324,423 lots. SHFE copper inventory increased by 1.06% to 135,900 tons, while domestic SMM mainstream area copper inventory decreased by 7,400 tons to 195,900 tons [2] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Overseas mine disruptions weakened as the Freeport Indonesia Grasberg copper mine resumed operation at the end of October. The domestic anode copper smelting capacity release accelerated, with the expected anode copper operating rate in November rising 6.86 percentage points to 59.91%, but the operating rate recovery of mineral anode copper enterprises was limited due to maintenance [3] - **Demand Side**: The copper processing sector showed a significant off - peak season during the peak period. In October, the copper strip operating rate decreased by 1.05 percentage points to 64.97% month - on - month, with a year - on - year decline of 7.76 percentage points. The H65 brass strip processing fee dropped to around 1,000 yuan/ton. Although the expected copper strip operating rate in November is to rise to 66.57%, it is still 6.98 percentage points lower than the same period last year [4] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories showed differentiation. LME inventory increased by 395 tons to 43,800 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 2,950 short tons to 369,400 short tons, while domestic SMM inventory decreased by 7,400 tons due to reduced imports and improved outbound shipments [5] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - Various copper - related price and inventory data are presented in a table, including SMM 1 copper price, spot premiums and discounts of different copper types, LME (0 - 3) backwardation or contango, SHFE and LME copper prices, and LME, SHFE, and COMEX copper inventories, along with their changes and rates of change from November 4 to November 10, 2025 [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On November 10, the copper strip market demand was off - peak during the peak season, and the mainstream H65 brass strip processing fee returned to around 1,000 yuan/ton [9] - In October 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 64.97%, a 1.05 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month and a 7.76 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The operating rates of large, medium, and small enterprises were 71.14%, 57.72%, and 55.9% respectively [9] - As of November 10, SMM national mainstream area copper inventory decreased by 7,400 tons week - on - week to 195,900 tons. Future imports are expected to decrease, and downstream procurement demand is expected to increase, leading to a further slight decrease in weekly copper inventory [9] - SMM expects that the overall operating rate of Chinese anode copper enterprises in November 2025 will rise 6.86 percentage points to 59.91%, with the operating rate of mineral anode copper enterprises expected to rise 9.65 percentage points to 68.78% and that of scrap - produced anode copper enterprises to be 55.77%, a 5.61 - percentage - point increase [9] - In October 2025, the operating rate of SMM Chinese anode copper enterprises was 53.05%, a 3.99 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Due to maintenance, the operating rate of mineral anode copper enterprises decreased by 5.45 percentage points to 59.13%, while that of scrap - produced anode copper enterprises increased by 8.48 percentage points to 50.15% due to increased scrap copper supply and a wider refined - scrap price spread [9] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - Multiple charts are presented, including those related to China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fee, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper various net - long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [10][11][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (01258), projecting revenue growth for 2025-2027 with expected revenues of $3.632 billion, $4.730 billion, and $4.950 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -4.8%, 30.2%, and 4.7% respectively [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is $480 million, $518 million, and $631 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 7.7%, and 21.9% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be $0.12, $0.13, and $0.16, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 14.7, 13.7, and 11.2 times [1] Group 2 - In the third quarter, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $35.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, with quarterly profits of approximately $12.3 million, $14.0 million, and $9.3 million for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.57% in Q3 [2] - The company produced approximately 54,200 tons of crude copper and anode copper from its own mines, a year-on-year decrease of about 6%, while the production of cathode copper remained stable at approximately 63,900 tons [2] - The total copper production from the company's own mines for the first three quarters was approximately 118,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [2] - The company announced in June that it would acquire 10.5% of the issued share capital of SM Minerals through a share subscription, with the funds primarily allocated for technical exploration and development of the Bonkara mining project [2] - The Bonkara North mining rights hold approximately 1.5 million tons of copper metal, providing sufficient resources for large-scale mining operations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (01258), projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 with expected revenues of $36.32 billion, $47.30 billion, and $49.50 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -4.8%, 30.2%, and 4.7% respectively [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is $4.80 billion, $5.18 billion, and $6.31 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 7.7%, and 21.9% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be $0.12, $0.13, and $0.16, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 14.7, 13.7, and 11.2 times [1] Group 2 - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $3.56 billion for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, with quarterly profits of approximately $1.23 billion, $1.40 billion, and $0.93 billion for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.57% in Q3 [2] - The production of copper from the company's own mines was approximately 54,200 tons for crude copper and anode copper, a year-on-year decrease of about 6%, while the production of cathode copper was approximately 63,900 tons, remaining stable year-on-year [2] - The total copper production from the company's own mines for the first three quarters was approximately 118,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [2] - The company announced in June that it would acquire 10.5% of the issued share capital of SMMinerals through a share subscription, with the subscription price mainly allocated for technical exploration and development of the Bonkara mining project [2] - The Bonkara North mining rights owned by SMMinerals have an estimated copper metal reserve of approximately 1.5 million tons, providing sufficient resources for large-scale mining operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) shares rose over 3%, reaching HKD 14.53 with a trading volume of HKD 136 million, following the announcement of a projected profit increase for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company estimates a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately USD 356 million, representing a year-on-year growth of about 13% [1] - The increase in economic indicators is primarily driven by the rise in international copper prices and an increase in cathode copper production and sales [1] Production Metrics - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the company produced approximately 107,700 tons of cathode copper (including copper product processing services), a year-on-year increase of about 12%, achieving 77% of the annual production target [1] - The production of cathode copper from its own mines was approximately 63,900 tons, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1] - The total production of crude copper and anode copper (including copper product processing services) was approximately 307,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 7%, also achieving 77% of the annual production target [1] - The production of crude copper and anode copper from its own mines was approximately 54,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 6% [1] - The company produced approximately 788,300 tons of sulfuric acid, a year-on-year increase of about 2%, completing 79% of the annual production target [1] - The production of cobalt hydroxide (containing cobalt) was approximately 676 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, achieving 75% of the annual production target [1] - The production of liquid sulfur dioxide was approximately 1,442 tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of about 90%, completing only 14% of the annual production target [1]

Core Insights - Southbound funds increased their holdings in China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) by 3.315 million shares on October 24, 2025, marking a 0.56% increase in total holdings [1][2] - Over the past 5 trading days, there were 3 days of net reductions totaling 11.876 million shares, while in the last 20 trading days, there were 10 days of net increases totaling 1.0858 million shares [1][2] - As of now, southbound funds hold 594 million shares of China Nonferrous Mining, representing 15.2% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Summary by Category Shareholding Changes - On October 24, 2025, total shares held reached 594 million, with an increase of 3.315 million shares [2] - On October 23, 2025, total shares held were 590 million, with an increase of 3.711 million shares [2] - On October 22, 2025, total shares held were 587 million, with a decrease of 7.842 million shares [2] - On October 21, 2025, total shares held were 594 million, with a decrease of 6.303 million shares [2] - On October 20, 2025, total shares held were 601 million, with a decrease of 4.757 million shares [2] Company Overview - China Nonferrous Mining Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the exploration, mining, and processing of copper and cobalt metals [2] - The company operates two segments: the hydrometallurgy segment, which produces and sells cathode copper and cobalt hydroxide, and the smelting segment, which produces and sells crude copper and anode copper [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) reported a significant increase in production and profits for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising international copper prices and increased sales of cathode copper [1] Production and Operational Performance - The company produced approximately 107,663 tons of cathode copper, a year-on-year increase of 12%, achieving about 77% of its annual production target [1] - The production of crude copper and anode copper reached approximately 307,573 tons, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [1] - The subsidiary Zhongse Huaxin Maben achieved a 74% increase in cathode copper production to 24,222 tons, attributed to the utilization of generators and photovoltaic systems [1] - Luala Copper Smelting saw a 28% increase in crude copper production to 112,994 tons, as production systems operated at full capacity [1] Profitability - The company estimates a profit attributable to owners of approximately $356 million, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, primarily due to the rise in international copper prices and increased sales volume of cathode copper [1] Challenges - The Qianbixi hydrometallurgy operation temporarily ceased production due to a tailings pond incident, resulting in an 82% year-on-year decrease in cathode copper production to 755 tons [1] - Ganfeng Mining faced a 39% year-on-year reduction in cobalt hydroxide production to 390 tons, impacted by export restrictions on cobalt products from the Democratic Republic of the Congo [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) expects to achieve a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $356 million for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 13% driven by rising international copper prices and increased cathode copper production and sales [1] Production and Financial Performance - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the group produced approximately 107,700 tons of cathode copper (including copper product processing services), a year-on-year increase of about 12%, achieving approximately 77% of the annual production guidance [1] - The group’s own mines produced approximately 63,900 tons of cathode copper, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1] - The total production of crude copper and anode copper (including copper product processing services) reached approximately 307,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 7%, also achieving approximately 77% of the annual production guidance [1] - The group’s own mines produced approximately 54,200 tons of crude copper and anode copper, a year-on-year decrease of about 6% [1] - The total production of sulfuric acid was approximately 788,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 2%, achieving approximately 79% of the annual production guidance [1] - The total production of cobalt hydroxide (containing cobalt) was approximately 676 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, achieving approximately 75% of the annual production guidance [1] - The total production of liquid sulfur dioxide was approximately 1,442 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 90%, achieving only about 14% of the annual production guidance [1]