行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 21 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 宏观金融研究团队 021-60635739 有色金属研究团队 021-60635734 黑色金属研究团队 021-60635736 石油化工研究团队 021-60635738 农业产品研究团队 021-60635732 量化策略研究团队 021-60635726 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价震荡偏弱，主力收盘报 78640，宏观面等待周五晚间全球央行年会上鲍威尔 发 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream off - season characteristics are obvious, and the non - ferrous metals sector has corrected. The prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends, and each metal has its own influencing factors and market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals have different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is 98.7, with a daily decline of 1.36%, a weekly increase of 1.04%, and an annual decline of 9.03%; industrial silicon is 8500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.97%, a weekly decline of 12.60%, and an annual decline of 22.62% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The overall content of the Politburo meeting is less than the market's optimistic expectations; the result of the Sino - US economic and trade talks is in line with expectations, but the US side's statement is hawkish; China's July manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the Fed's statement is hawkish, suppressing the expectation of a September interest rate cut; the US July non - farm data is lower than expected, and the ISM manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the US has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper [8]. - **Raw Material End**: Slightly bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has increased slightly, and the port inventory of domestic copper ore has decreased [8]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The loss of smelters using spot copper ore has narrowed, and the profit of smelters using long - term contract copper ore has increased. China's copper smelter production in July has further increased [8]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The downstream demand has improved slightly, but the off - season characteristics are obvious [8]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The copper inventories at home and abroad have increased simultaneously [8]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The market is worried about the US economic recession, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, so the copper price is expected to remain weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: May be under pressure to decline in the short term; Arbitrage: None [8]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The Sino - US tariff suspension will be extended for 90 days; the US June core PCE price index has increased significantly; China's July official manufacturing PMI has declined; Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper; the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged, but two voting members support a rate cut [88]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee remains the same as last week, and the import processing fee index has been slightly increased. The smelters have a strong willingness to raise the processing fee [88]. - **Smelting End**: Bearish. The zinc ingot production in July reached a new high in the past five years, and the production in August is expected to increase [88]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The terminal project construction is affected by natural disasters, but the galvanizing sector is affected by positive news. There is a rumor that galvanizing manufacturers around Beijing will stop production during the September military parade, which needs further attention [88]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and it may continue to increase before the terminal demand enters the peak season [88]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The zinc fundamentals are under strong pressure, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Long copper and short zinc [88]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The US July non - farm data has unexpectedly declined, and the previous two months' data has been significantly revised down; the US manufacturing PMI is weaker than expected; the Sino - US trade negotiation is slightly less than expected [200][202]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable, and the benchmark price is rising. The demand for nickel ore procurement has weakened, and the domestic port inventory has increased seasonally [200][202]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The pure nickel production remains high; some Indonesian nickel - iron plants have reduced production due to cost inversion, but the demand has also weakened; the MHP coefficient is stable, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate may increase [200]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The stainless steel price has corrected, the steel mill profit has been repaired, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the overseas demand is still restricted. The new energy production and sales remain high, and the precursor enterprises' raw material inventory is relatively sufficient [200]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The overall inventory has increased. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory is 20.9 tons, an increase of 2.53%; the SHFE nickel inventory is 2.57 tons, an increase of 1.17% [200]. - **Investment View**: Weakly volatile. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the nickel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with increased volatility. In the long term, there is still pressure of over - supply of primary nickel [200]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see [200].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The rising spot premium restricts the decline of copper prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,040 with a daily decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 78,010 with a decline of 0.04%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,607 with a decline of 1.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 109,011, an increase of 53,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 176,193, an increase of 4,504. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 46,546, an increase of 30,514, and the open interest was 271,000, an increase of 221 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 19,622, a decrease of 351, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,200, an increase of 1,350. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.28%, a decrease of 1.87% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 50.76, a decrease of 3.96 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,600, an increase of 100. The spot - to - near - term futures spread was 165, an increase of 55 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a 4 - month high. Trump said the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days, and the US Commerce Secretary claimed to have reached trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand [1] - **Micro News**: Chile expects to get Trump's tariff exemption, causing New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to decline generally. Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and development projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1 [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, effective August 1, which has led to significant market reactions, particularly a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices [1][3]. Market Reaction - COMEX copper prices plummeted over 18% on July 30, with the decline continuing, while LME copper showed minimal reaction, resulting in a significant narrowing of the price spread between COMEX and LME copper [1][4]. - The collapse of the abnormal premium structure for U.S. copper means that traders will lack incentives to transport copper from other regions to the U.S., leading to concerns about limited copper inflow into the U.S. market [4]. Implications for Supply and Demand - The U.S. copper import volume has nearly reached last year's total, and without price incentives, the inflow of copper from other regions may be restricted, potentially leading to a re-export scenario [4]. - LME copper inventories have accumulated nearly 50,000 tons since early July, with expectations of further increases in inventory levels due to the reduced impact of tariffs on refined copper [4]. Future Considerations - President Trump has not ruled out the possibility of imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, with potential phased tariffs starting in 2027 [5]. - The U.S. administration's directive includes measures to support the domestic copper industry, such as requiring that 25% of high-quality scrap copper produced domestically must be sold within the U.S. [5].

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: July 22, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The macro - level is the main reason for the recent rise in copper prices. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a plan to stabilize growth for industries such as non - ferrous metals, which has raised market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. With the short - term hype points of copper supply - side reform and a relatively strong fundamental situation, copper prices are expected to rise further [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices rose, with total positions increasing by 14,000 lots and trading volume significantly expanding. The market maintained a near - month contango structure and a far - month ack structure, and the spot premium rose to 220 due to tight market supply. Domestic social inventories decreased by 24,700 tons to 118,600 tons over the weekend, and low inventories began to affect the spot premium. The LME market had a slight inventory reduction of 100 tons, and the expectation of inventory accumulation continued to suppress the 0 - 3 contango structure. The overseas market was affected by the upcoming US tariff on copper, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas fundamentals [12] 2. Industry News - In June 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,222.29 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.35% and a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. From January to June, the total exports were 69,586.5 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.32% [13] - In June 2025, China imported 34,700 tons of scrap copper ingots (red/purple copper ingots), a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 71%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 226,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 111% [13] - In June 2025, China imported 68,500 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26% and a year - on - year increase of 2.38%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 382,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.56% [13]

Group 1 - Ivanhoe Mines reported a significant year-on-year increase of 11% in copper production at its Kamoa-Kakula mine, reaching 112,009 tons in Q2 [1] - Despite operational disruptions earlier this year due to an earthquake, production growth was achieved, and the company has lowered its 2025 production guidance by nearly 30% to between 370,000 and 420,000 tons [1] - The company has initiated mining in the low-grade Kakula West area, producing ore with a copper content of 3%-4%, and is implementing a two-phase drainage plan to access the flooded eastern region [1] Group 2 - The high-grade mining area in Kakula West, with a copper content of approximately 5%, is expected to resume operations by the end of the year [2] - Kamoa-Kakula is preparing to enhance its annual production capacity to 500,000 tons of copper concentrate by September, with the first production expected in October [2] - The Kamoa-Kakula mining area is one of the largest copper mines globally and is crucial for global supply amid increasing demand for energy transition metals [2]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company, with a current stock price of 7.5 HKD [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading vertically integrated copper producer globally, with a strategic focus on the "Zambia-Congo" dual-core layout [1][7]. - The company aims to double its copper production from its own mines within the next five years, leveraging its strong resource endowment and ongoing projects [7][41]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, reaching 3.99 billion USD in 2024, a 43.5% year-on-year growth, attributed to rising copper prices and enhanced production capacity [18][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2011 through the restructuring of four Zambian copper enterprises and has since become a pioneer in overseas non-ferrous metal mining for Chinese enterprises [1][11]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 28.4 billion HKD and a total share capital of 3,902 million shares [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2023 is 25.611 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of -10% [6]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 3.115 billion CNY, corresponding to a PE ratio of 8.6 [6][7]. Resource and Production Capacity - The company has a total ore resource of 436 million tons, ranking it among the top in the industry [31]. - The copper production from self-owned mines increased from 99,000 tons in 2020 to 159,000 tons in 2024, marking a growth of over 60% [37][41]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute approximately 1.67 billion USD in cash dividends for 2024, representing 42% of its total profit, maintaining a consistent dividend payout ratio of around 40% over the past five years [23][26]. Strategic Projects and Future Outlook - The company is actively expanding its resource base through various projects in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with significant investments planned for the coming years [27][53]. - The company has initiated several projects, including the Samba copper mine and Mwambashi copper mine, which are expected to contribute significantly to future production capacity [46][49].

Group 1: Investment in Nickel and Copper Industry - Indonesia has attracted over $80 billion in investments for nickel smelting plants over the past decade, and is rapidly becoming a significant player in the copper smelting industry as global demand for copper rises [1] - In the past year, Indonesia has attracted over $9 billion in investments in the copper sector, including a large copper refining facility by Freeport Indonesia in East Java and a new smelting plant by Amman Mineral in West Nusa Tenggara [1][2] - The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry anticipates more copper smelting plants will emerge, contingent on sufficient financing and long-term investments [2] Group 2: Demand for Copper in Electric Vehicles - Analysts indicate that interest in copper processing plants is increasing, driven by the significant rise in electric vehicle production, with each battery pack for medium-sized electric vehicles containing approximately 10% copper, or about 80 kilograms [2] - By 2030, Indonesia's annual sales of four-wheeled electric vehicles are expected to reach 195,000 units, and two-wheeled electric vehicles are projected to reach 5 million units, with each four-wheeled vehicle requiring 83 kilograms of copper [3] Group 3: Current and Future Copper Production - Freeport Indonesia's copper refining facility in East Java is expected to produce at least 1.1 million tons of cathode copper annually, moving the country from sixth to fifth in global rankings for this category [4] - The new copper refining facility in East Java resumed operations in late May after a temporary closure due to a fire, with a processing capacity of 1.7 million tons of copper concentrate, yielding 650,000 tons of cathode copper [4][5] - Amman Mineral began producing cathode copper in March and is currently fine-tuning new equipment to achieve full and continuous capacity, with a processing capacity of 900,000 tons of copper concentrate [5] Group 4: Investment Potential and Industry Gaps - Indonesia has 220.3 million tons of copper reserves, ranking 10th globally, but its refined copper output ranks 16th, indicating a significant investment potential in the copper refining sector [3] - The current copper processing facilities primarily produce anode copper for decorative coatings and cathode copper for electric vehicle batteries, but there is a lack of facilities for producing sintered copper products for automotive electrical systems [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the suspension of underground mining operations at the Kakula mine due to a seismic event, with updates on recovery efforts and production guidance adjustments from Ivanhoe Mines, in which the company holds a stake [1][2][3] Group 1: Mining Operations Update - The Kakula underground mining operations were suspended due to a seismic event, but the pumping capacity has stabilized the underground water level [1] - Mining activities in the western section of Kakula are expected to resume on June 7, 2025, while the eastern section will restart as soon as possible, focusing on developing access to new mining areas [1] - The new mining area development in the far eastern section is expected to be completed by the second quarter of 2026, with pumping operations in the eastern section starting in August 2025 and concluding in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Guidance - The first and second phase concentrators at the Kamoa-Kakula mine are operating at approximately 50% capacity, processing ore from surface stockpiles [2] - As mining operations in the western section resume, the concentrators will see an increase in ore supply, with production ramping up for the remainder of 2025 [2] - The production guidance for 2025 has been adjusted to 370,000 to 420,000 tons of copper metal in concentrate, reflecting known and unknown risks and uncertainties [3] - The target for approximately 600,000 tons of copper production in 2026 has been withdrawn by Ivanhoe Mines [3]

Group 1 - CITIC Metal's affiliate, Ivanhoe Mines, reported progress on the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where underground operations were paused due to a seismic event [1] - The Kakula underground mine's dewatering capacity has stabilized, with work in the western section resuming on June 7, 2025, while the eastern section will restart mining operations soon [1][2] - New mining areas in the far eastern section are expected to be developed by the second quarter of 2026, with dewatering operations in the eastern section anticipated to begin in August 2025 and complete by the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The first and second concentrators at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine are operating at approximately 50% capacity, processing ore from surface stockpiles [2] - As mining operations in the western section resume, the concentrators will see an increase in ore supply, with production ramping up for the remainder of 2025 [2] - The smelter on-site is expected to begin operations in September 2025, with the first batch of anode copper produced in October [2] Group 3 - Preliminary investigations indicated that the seismic event originated from a high rock extraction rate area in the eastern section of the Kakula mine, leading to stress redistribution and yielding deformation in the mining pillars [3] - The production guidance for 2025 has been updated to 370,000 to 420,000 tons of copper concentrate, reflecting known and unknown risks and uncertainties [3] - Ivanhoe Mines has withdrawn its target of approximately 600,000 tons of copper production for 2026 due to the seismic event [3]