持续上涨后，波动加剧 股指周报 2025/10/18 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 目录 06 估值 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 重要消息：1、北京时间10月18日上午，国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方同 意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋商；2、工信部：到2027年实现城域算力1毫秒时延圈覆盖率不低于70% 打造高品质毫秒入算底座；3、寒武纪 第三季度营收为17.27亿元，同比增长1332.52%；净利润为5.67亿元。紫金矿业：前三季度归母净利润同比增长55%；4、摩根大通宣布未来 十年将为美国稀土、AI、能源、机器人等关键产业提供高达1.5万亿美元融资与项目支持；这项计划的出台恰逢美国政府到处入股关键产业 公司的节点。 经济与企业盈利：1、国家统计局：8月份规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长5.2%，2025年1—7月份全国固定资产投资增长0.5%，7月份社会 消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，增速延续回落态势；2、中国9月官方制造业PMI为4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The domestic zinc ore apparent inventory has been depleted again, the domestic TC of zinc concentrate has declined again, and the growth rate of imported TC of zinc concentrate has slowed down. The total domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased, and the monthly spread of SHFE zinc has remained low; the registered warrants of LME zinc overseas have remained low, and the monthly spread of LME zinc has been high. After the zinc ingot export window opened, the SHFE-LME ratio stabilized. It is expected that SHFE zinc will operate weakly in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: On Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.59% at 21,836 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 229,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S fell 6.5 to $2,948/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 224,600 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 21,850 yuan/ton, with a basis of -45 yuan/ton in Shanghai, -35 yuan/ton in Tianjin, -105 yuan/ton in Guangdong, and a price difference of 60 yuan/ton between Shanghai and Guangdong [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased slightly to 162,700 tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the SHFE was 67,300 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was -45 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -15 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 38,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 13,900 tons. The basis of the cash-3S contract in the overseas market was $137.2/ton, and the 3-15 spread was $69.99/ton. Cross-market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE-LME ratio on the disk was 1.043, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -4,529.7 yuan/ton [11]. - Industrial Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $119/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 277,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 614,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy was 54.63%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.13%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs in China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non-ferrous metals industries, but does not provide specific text analysis [14][16][19][20]. 3. Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In September 2025, the zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year-on-year change of -10.0% and a month-on-month change of -8.8%. From January to September, the total zinc ore output was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of -3.5%. In August 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 467,300 dry tons, a year-on-year change of 30.8% and a month-on-month change of -6.5%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,501,500 dry tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 43.9%. In August 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 555,100 metal tons, a year-on-year change of 6.4% and a month-on-month change of -2.9%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 4,001,000 metal tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 11.6% [25][27]. - Zinc Ingot Supply: In September 2025, the zinc ingot output was 600,100 tons, a year-on-year change of 20.2% and a month-on-month change of -4.2%. From January to September, the total zinc ingot output was 5,069,100 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 8.9%. In August 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 27,900 tons, a year-on-year change of -2.0% and a month-on-month change of 37.2%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 244,300 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of -13.8%. In August 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 654,100 tons, a year-on-year change of 27.1% and a month-on-month change of 5.0%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,713,300 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 6.1% [33][35]. 4. Demand Analysis - Initial Demand: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy was 54.63%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.13%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [39]. - Apparent Demand: In August 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 599,600 tons, a year-on-year change of 9.8% and a month-on-month change of 0.6%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 4,570,700 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 4.1% [41]. 5. Supply-Demand Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply-Demand Balance: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply-demand difference was a surplus of 54,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply-demand difference was a surplus of 142,600 tons [52]. - Overseas Refined Zinc Supply-Demand Balance: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply-demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply-demand difference was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased slightly to 162,700 tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the SHFE was 67,300 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was -45 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -15 yuan/ton [60]. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 38,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 13,900 tons. The basis of the cash-3S contract in the overseas market was $137.2/ton, and the 3-15 spread was $69.99/ton [63]. - Cross-market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE-LME ratio on the disk was 1.043, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -4,529.7 yuan/ton [64]. - Position Analysis: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc has turned slightly net short, the net long position of investment funds in LME zinc has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral in the short term [67].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has been the hottest segment this year, with stock prices rising over 70% as of October 14, 2025, ranking first among all industries. The core drivers include supply contraction and macroeconomic factors, with a focus on the dialogue between strategy and industry teams to address various questions regarding the sector [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply constraints are a fundamental logic behind the market's performance, with significant underinvestment in global resource capital over the past decade, particularly in key metals like copper and rare earths. This has led to a decrease in supply elasticity [24]. - The latest round of inventory replenishment may exceed market expectations due to a shift in the U.S. economic structure, with manufacturing showing signs of recovery while the service sector weakens. This could lead to a more robust inventory cycle compared to previous years [3][14]. - The global manufacturing cycle is expected to gradually recover, which will increase resource consumption per unit of GDP, potentially leading to a significant rise in metal demand [16][19]. Group 2: Financial and Market Trends - The financial environment, particularly the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to support metal prices, with gold and other precious metals benefiting from increased liquidity and risk aversion [26]. - The current market dynamics suggest a transition to a rebalancing phase, with a focus on the recovery of corporate earnings and the export price index in China as key indicators for A-share companies [5]. - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is characterized by a combination of supply constraints, inventory replenishment, and financial attributes, indicating a systemic recovery rather than purely demand-driven growth [26]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The copper market is particularly sensitive to inventory replenishment logic, with price support stemming from U.S. market dynamics influenced by tariffs and supply disruptions [25]. - The demand for metals, especially copper, is expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of AI infrastructure, which will drive increased consumption in data centers and power systems [42][45]. - The valuation differences between overseas and Chinese non-ferrous metal stocks can be attributed to varying valuation methods and accounting practices, with Chinese companies showing higher cash profit quality but lower apparent valuations [30][32][35].

Core Viewpoint - After the "Double Festival" holiday, the stock price of Baiyin Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Baiyin Nonferrous") experienced rapid increases, achieving five trading limits in seven days, indicating strong market interest in the company amid a bullish trend in the nonferrous metals industry [2][4]. Company Summary - Baiyin Nonferrous has a diverse business layout, with silver accounting for a small proportion of its operations. The company announced plans to invest 1.5 billion yuan to establish a gold subsidiary, aiming to cover the entire gold industry chain [2][4]. - The company has significant production capabilities, with annual outputs of 400,000 tons of copper, 400,000 tons of lead and zinc, 15 tons of gold, and 500 tons of silver [5]. - Baiyin Nonferrous has faced management issues, including significant declines in profits, with a net profit of -217 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 1859.82% year-on-year [2][9][10]. Industry Summary - The nonferrous metals market has been performing strongly this year, with copper prices rising due to supply disruptions and silver prices experiencing significant increases, outperforming gold [6][8]. - The demand for silver is driven by its industrial applications in sectors such as photovoltaics and electronics, highlighting its stronger commodity attributes compared to gold [6][8]. - The overall market for precious metals is bullish, with silver prices rising over 80% this year, making companies like Baiyin Nonferrous attractive to investors [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - After the "Double Festival" holiday, the stock price of Baiyin Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. (601212.SH) experienced rapid increases, achieving five trading limits within seven days, indicating strong market interest in the company and the nonferrous metals sector overall [2][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Baiyin Nonferrous's stock price reached 6.53 yuan per share on October 17, 2025, marking a 9.93% increase from the previous trading day [4]. - The stock has seen five trading limits in seven days following the holiday, with notable increases on October 9, 10, 13, and 16 [4]. - The recent surge in stock price is attributed to the overall bullish trend in the nonferrous metals industry, particularly in silver and gold [2][4]. Group 2: Business Expansion - Baiyin Nonferrous announced plans to invest 1.5 billion yuan to establish a gold subsidiary, aiming to cover the entire gold industry chain [2][5]. - The company has made significant resource acquisitions, including 704,000 tons of copper and 13.44 tons of gold from its Brazilian copper-gold mine project [5]. - Baiyin Nonferrous holds a 49% stake in Gansu Rare Earth New Materials Co., which is one of Asia's largest producers of chlorinated rare earths [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - The nonferrous metals market has shown strong performance this year, with significant price increases in copper and gold due to supply disruptions [5][6]. - Silver prices have surged, with London spot silver reaching over $54 per ounce, reflecting an increase of over 80% this year [6]. - The demand for silver is driven by its industrial applications in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics, highlighting its stronger commodity characteristics compared to gold [6]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Management Issues - Despite the positive market conditions, Baiyin Nonferrous reported a net loss of 217 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a significant decline of 1859.82% year-on-year [3][7]. - The company has faced multiple management issues, including information disclosure violations and incidents of theft, which have raised concerns about its operational integrity [3][8][9]. - Baiyin Nonferrous's revenue from silver-related business accounted for only 4.54% of total revenue, indicating a diversified business structure beyond silver [7].

Core Insights - Zijin Mining's Q3 report shows impressive performance with a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.45%, significantly surpassing last year's total [1][2] - The company's market capitalization exceeds 800 billion yuan, ranking third globally among mining companies and 16th in the A-share market [1] - Zijin Gold International, a subsidiary, has seen its stock price double since its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reaching a market value of 400 billion HKD [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Zijin Mining achieved operating revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, and a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, up 55.45% [2] - The gross margin for mining enterprises was 60.62%, an increase of 2.91 percentage points year-on-year, while the comprehensive gross margin rose to 24.93%, up 5.40 percentage points [2] - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 86.489 billion yuan and a net profit of 14.572 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 10% [2] Production and Pricing - The increase in performance is attributed to production release and rising gold prices, with gold production reaching 65 tons in the first nine months, a 20% increase year-on-year [2][3] - The average selling price of gold concentrate was 685.21 yuan per gram, up 41% year-on-year, while the average selling price of gold ingots was 746.43 yuan per gram, up 44% [2] - Copper production for the first three quarters was 830,000 tons, a 5% increase year-on-year, although Q3 production saw a 6% decrease due to flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine [3] New Projects and Investments - Zijin Mining announced an internal project for the Shapinggou molybdenum mine with an estimated investment of approximately 7.206 billion yuan, targeting an annual production capacity of 10 million tons [4] - The Shapinggou molybdenum mine was acquired in October 2022, with a total molybdenum resource of 2.1 million tons and an average grade of 0.187% to 0.2% [4][5] - The development of the Shapinggou molybdenum mine aligns with the company's strategic planning, positioning it to become one of the largest molybdenum producers globally [5]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's Q3 2025 financial results exceeded market expectations, with a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 55.45%, significantly surpassing last year's total [2][3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Zijin Mining achieved an operating income of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [3] - The gross profit margin for mining enterprises was 60.62%, up 2.91 percentage points year-on-year, while the comprehensive gross profit margin was 24.93%, an increase of 5.40 percentage points [3] - In Q3 alone, the company reported an operating income of 86.489 billion yuan and a net profit of 14.572 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.14% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of over 10% [3] Production and Sales - Zijin Mining's gold production reached 65 tons from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 20%, significantly outpacing the industry average [3] - The average selling price of gold concentrate was 685.21 yuan per gram, up 41% year-on-year, while the average selling price of gold ingots was 746.43 yuan per gram, up 44% year-on-year [3] - Copper production for the first three quarters was 830,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5% [4] New Projects and Investments - Zijin Mining announced an internal project for the Shapinggou molybdenum mine with an estimated total investment of approximately 7.206 billion yuan, targeting an annual production capacity of 10 million tons [5] - The Shapinggou molybdenum mine has a metal resource of 2.1 million tons, with a design annual production capacity of 22,100 tons of molybdenum [5][6] Strategic Outlook - The development of the Shapinggou molybdenum mine aligns with the company's strategic planning, positioning it to become one of the largest molybdenum producers globally [6]

Core Viewpoint - A significant block trade of 10.05 million shares of Huayu Mining occurred on October 17, with a transaction value of 261 million yuan, indicating a discount of 5.18% compared to the closing price of the day [2] Group 1: Trading Details - The block trade involved a transaction price of 26.01 yuan per share, while the closing price for Huayu Mining on the same day was 27.43 yuan [2] - The buyer was the Xi'an Weiyang Road Securities Branch of CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., and the seller was the Yulin Fushi Road Securities Branch of CITIC Jianzhong Securities Co., Ltd. [2] Group 2: Market Performance - On October 17, Huayu Mining's stock price decreased by 5.09%, with a trading volume of 13.97 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 6.01% [2] - Over the past five days, the stock has cumulatively declined by 1.54%, with a total net outflow of 500 million yuan [2] Group 3: Margin Financing Data - The latest margin financing balance for Huayu Mining is 1.705 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 18.53 million yuan over the past five days, which is a decline of 1.08% [2] Group 4: Company Background - Tibet Huayu Mining Co., Ltd. was established on October 22, 2002, with a registered capital of 819.96 million yuan [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of approximately 254.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.33%, and a net profit of approximately 37.864 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55.45% [1] - In the third quarter, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 86.489 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.14%, and a net profit of approximately 14.572 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57.14% [1] - As of October 17, the company's A-share price closed at 30.17 yuan per share, with a cumulative increase of approximately 104% year-to-date [1] Production and Financial Performance - The company's gold production for the first three quarters was 65 tons, an increase of 20% year-on-year, while copper production was 830,000 tons, up 5% year-on-year [2] - The silver production was 335 tons, a 1% increase year-on-year, and zinc production was 270,000 tons, down 12% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for mining enterprises was 60.62%, an increase of 2.91 percentage points year-on-year, and the overall gross margin was 24.93%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Quarterly Production Insights - In the third quarter, gold production was 24 tons, a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter, while copper production was 260,000 tons, a 6% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2] - Silver production in the third quarter was 112 tons, down 6% quarter-on-quarter, and zinc production was 90,000 tons, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2] - The mining enterprise gross margin for the third quarter was 61.27%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, and the overall gross margin was 27.23%, up 2.71 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Lithium Business Development - The company produced 11,000 tons of lithium carbonate in the first three quarters, including 3,700 tons from Zangge Mining since May 2025 [4] - The first phase of the lithium mine project in Argentina, with an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons, commenced production by the end of the third quarter [4] - The lithium mining system in Hunan Xiangyuan, with a capacity of 5 million tons per year, is set to begin trial production in the fourth quarter [4] Subsidiary Listing and Financials - The subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 30, issuing 401 million shares at a price of 71.59 HKD per share, raising approximately 28.7 billion HKD [5] - In the first three quarters, Zijin Gold International achieved gold production of 32 tons and a net profit of 9.05 million USD, equivalent to approximately 6.484 billion yuan [5] - Other main gold mines of the group produced 20 tons of gold, generating a net profit of 5.013 billion yuan [5]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 86,488,690,009 yuan for the third quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.14% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 14,571,868,503 yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 57.14% [1]