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晶采观察丨四中全会将这项任务摆在首位 传递哪些信号?
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-10-28 14:27
10月20日至23日,中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议在京召开。全会审议通过《中共中央 关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》(以下简称《建议》),圆满完成各项议程。 相信很多人都关注到了这一点,党的二十届四中全会部署12项战略任务,明确把"建设现代化产业体 系,巩固壮大实体经济根基"摆在第一条。这足以说明实体经济的分量,以及对我国"立身之本"的重 视。 市场方面,大国经济都是内需为主导,市场是当今世界最稀缺的资源。因此,构建强大国内市场不仅是 发展的必然选择,更是推进中国式现代化的关键战略依托,这也体现了我们发展的战略定力。在具体路 径上,《建议》提出坚持扩大内需这个战略基点。一是拓展增量,二是提升效益,三是畅通循环。 在提升效益方面,国家发展改革委方面表示,我国固定资产投资年度规模已达到50万亿元,但惠民生、 补短板、育动能等任务还很重,必须把"钱"特别是政府资金更好地用在发展紧要处,花在群众生活上。 对此,《建议》提出优化政府投资结构,提高民生类政府投资比重,统筹用好各类政府投资,加强政府 投资全过程管理等举措,将更好地发挥政府投资的撬动作用,不断增进投资的综合效益。 推动经济行稳 ...
“十五五”建议稿的十大信号(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-10-28 13:54
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key points from the Central Committee's suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the analysis of risks and challenges, economic growth targets, structural optimization, and the importance of national security. Economic Analysis - The suggestions highlight the complex and severe external economic environment, shifting focus from "peace and development" to "intensified great power competition" and recognizing China's ability to navigate international challenges [3][36]. - Internally, the focus has shifted from reform and innovation to addressing insufficient effective demand and structural transformation challenges, such as employment pressures and income growth [3][36]. Key Goals - The main goals include maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, increasing the resident consumption rate, and enhancing the level of technological self-reliance and innovation [4][36]. - A new emphasis on national security has been introduced, aiming to strengthen the national security framework [4][36]. Modern Industrial System - The plan prioritizes the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, with a focus on enhancing global competitiveness in sectors like mining and metallurgy [5][37]. - It outlines four strategic emerging industries (new energy, new materials, aerospace, low-altitude economy) and six future industries (quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, sixth-generation mobile communication) [5][37]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Specific measures to boost domestic demand include increasing public service spending, expanding the supply of quality consumer goods, and enhancing investment in livelihood-related projects [5][37]. - The plan emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to consumption and investment to stimulate domestic circulation [5][37]. Technological Modernization - Technological modernization is defined as a crucial support for Chinese-style modernization, with a focus on seizing opportunities in the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation [6][38]. - The suggestions call for "extraordinary measures" to achieve breakthroughs in key core technologies across various sectors [6][38]. Reform and Market Construction - The construction of a unified national market is highlighted as a key reform area, aiming to eliminate barriers and promote fair competition [7][39]. - Financial and fiscal reforms are seen as essential for enhancing macroeconomic governance efficiency, with an emphasis on policy coordination [7][39]. Social Development - The suggestions focus on high-quality development in employment, income, real estate, and population, addressing structural employment issues and enhancing social security [8][40]. - Green development initiatives are emphasized, including the construction of a new energy system and the implementation of carbon reduction measures [8][40].
上交所聘任第三届科技创新咨询委员会委员 尹志尧、王兴兴等在列
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-10-28 13:47
本报讯 (记者毛艺融)10月27日晚,上交所官网发布消息称,已聘任第三届科技创新咨询委员会(以 下简称"咨询委")委员,并向社会公布。 杭州宇树科技股份有限公司创始人、CEO兼CTO王兴兴,北京银河通用机器人有限公司创始人兼CTO王 鹤,智元创新(上海)科技有限公司联合创始人兼CTO彭志辉、浙江强脑科技有限公司创始人兼CEO韩 璧丞等均在列。 来自半导体、生物医药等领域的上市公司的董事长、高管也出现在第三届咨询委委员名单里。例如,中 微半导体设备(上海)股份有限公司董事长兼总经理尹志尧,天合光能股份有限公司董事长兼总经理高 纪凡等。 多名来自航空航天、机器人、卫星、通信等行业的专家学者也在第三届咨询委委员名单里。包括清华大 学航天航空学院航空宇航工程系主任王兆魁、北京航空航天大学机器人研究所副所长文力、哈尔滨工业 大学机器人研究所副所长李瑞峰、哈尔滨工业大学卫星技术研究所所长李化义、中国信息通信研究院副 院长魏亮等。 据悉,上交所第二届咨询委自组建以来平稳运行,在科创属性研判和科创板建设等方面切实发挥了专业 支持作用。为贯彻落实新"国九条"和科创板改革"1+6"政策措施等相关精神,在中国证监会指导下,上 交所 ...
Leggett & Platt(LEG) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-28 13:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter sales were just over $1 billion, down 6% year over year, primarily due to soft demand in residential end markets and sales attrition from the divestiture of the aerospace business [9][12] - Third quarter EBIT was $171 million, and adjusted EBIT was $73 million, a $3 million decrease year over year [12] - Third quarter earnings per share were $0.91, with adjusted EPS at $0.29, a $0.03 decrease year over year [12] - Operating cash flow for the third quarter was $126 million, an increase of $30 million compared to the third quarter of 2023 [12] - Total debt was reduced by $296 million in the third quarter, bringing total debt reduction for the year to $367 million [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bedding product sales decreased 10% year over year but improved 3% sequentially compared to the second quarter [9] - Specialized product sales declined 7%, while furniture, flooring, and textile product sales were flat year over year [9] - U.S. mattress industry production improved sequentially but remained negative year over year, with total market consumption expected to decline low single digits for the full year [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The domestic mattress production volume remained negative year over year, with expectations for a slowdown in the fourth quarter due to normal seasonality [10] - The automotive supply chain risks, including availability of aluminum and semiconductors, have begun impacting the industry, although no material impact has been experienced to date [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is reaffirming the midpoint of its full-year sales and adjusted EPS guidance, with sales expected to be $4.0 to $4.1 billion, down 6% to 9% versus 2024 [14][15] - The restructuring plan is nearing completion, with expected annualized EBIT benefits of $60 to $70 million [13][14] - The company aims to prioritize debt reduction while considering small strategic acquisitions and share repurchases in the future [16][51] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about tariffs potentially driving inflation and impacting consumer confidence and demand [6] - The company remains focused on providing high-quality, innovative products and improving operational execution despite a challenging consumer environment [8][17] - Management noted that the innovation pipeline is robust, with new products gaining traction, positioning the company for long-term profitable growth opportunities [17][48] Other Important Information - The company completed the divestiture of its aerospace business to optimize its portfolio [4][5] - Total liquidity at the end of the quarter was $974 million, comprised of $461 million in cash and $513 million in capacity remaining under the revolving credit facility [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Benefits from cost actions and restructuring - Management highlighted that the restructuring plan is nearly complete, with no customer disruptions and expected annualized EBIT benefits of $60 to $70 million [22][25] Question: Demand environment in bedding - The bedding market is characterized as more stable, with sequential improvement observed, although challenges remain due to macroeconomic factors [27][30] Question: Capital expenditure plans for 2026 - Management indicated that normalized CapEx is expected to be around $100 million, with ongoing funding for growth initiatives [32] Question: Segment margins for the year - Bedding segment margins are expected to be up 200 basis points, while specialized segment margins should increase by 50 basis points [33] Question: Growth opportunities post-restructuring - Long-term growth opportunities are seen in finished bedding and private label work, with a focus on innovation and product development [46][48]
四中全会将这项任务摆在首位 传递哪些信号?
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-10-28 13:12
Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy as a priority for national development [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Development - The proposal aims to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, focusing on enhancing the global competitiveness of sectors such as chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding, which account for approximately 80% of the manufacturing value added in China [2]. - An estimated market space of around 10 trillion yuan will be created over the next five years through these initiatives [2]. - The development of emerging pillar industries, including new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, is expected to generate several trillion-level market opportunities [2]. Group 2: Economic Strategy - The strategy emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as the main driver of the economy, highlighting the need to build a strong domestic market as a key strategic support for modernization [2]. - The proposal outlines three specific pathways to expand domestic demand: increasing volume, enhancing efficiency, and ensuring smooth circulation [2]. Group 3: Investment and Efficiency - The annual scale of fixed asset investment in China has reached 50 trillion yuan, with a focus on improving the effectiveness of government investments in areas that benefit people's livelihoods and address critical gaps [3]. - The proposal suggests optimizing the structure of government investment to increase the proportion allocated to public welfare, thereby enhancing the overall effectiveness of investments [3]. - The synergy between upgrading traditional industries and the growth of emerging industries is crucial for achieving stable and dynamic economic growth [3].
大涨,溢价率飙升!基金提示风险
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-10-28 12:57
Market Overview - On October 28, the A-share market experienced a high and then a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high [4] - The military, software, and lithium battery sectors showed strong performance, with several military and defense ETFs rising over 1% [4] - The Nasdaq 100 ETF (159660) led the gains with a 3% increase, and its premium rate surged to 9.9%, the highest since January of this year [4] Gold ETFs Performance - Under the backdrop of ongoing adjustments in international gold prices, gold-themed ETFs continued to decline, with gold stock ETFs, gold ETFs, and Shanghai gold ETFs all dropping over 3% [2][6] - On October 27, gold ETFs saw a net outflow exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, with some products experiencing five consecutive days of net outflows [2][9] Bond Market Activity - The central bank announced the resumption of public market government bond trading, leading to a rebound in the bond market, with bond ETFs generally rising [3][7] - The 30-year government bond ETFs (511130 and 511090) both increased by 0.61%, while several credit bond ETFs rose over 0.2% [7] - The trading volume of the short-term bond ETF (511360) surged, with a transaction amount exceeding 44.39 billion yuan, up from 36.50 billion yuan the previous day [8] Sector Insights - The military sector led the market gains, with notable stocks like Great Wall Military (601606) hitting the daily limit, and others like Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) and Kingsoft (金山办公) rising over 6% [4] - The technology and cyclical sectors are expected to attract attention, with a focus on artificial intelligence and related policies, as well as sectors benefiting from inflation recovery [11] New ETF Launches - The first batch of Brazil-themed ETFs is set to launch on October 31, including the E Fund Itaú Brazil IBOVESPA ETF and the Huaxia Bradesco Brazil IBOVESPA ETF, which will invest in Brazil's capital market [12]
划重点!“十五五”规划建议里的产业利好
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao - Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-10-28 12:49
Core Viewpoint - The "Suggestions" emphasize the construction of a modern industrial system, reinforcing the foundation of the real economy, with a focus on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and promoting advanced manufacturing as a key driver for economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Advanced Manufacturing - The "Suggestions" highlight the critical role of manufacturing in economic development, aiming to maintain its value-added within a reasonable range to support overall economic growth [2]. - Advanced manufacturing is identified as a significant focus for the future development of the real economy, with expectations for new opportunities arising from the evolving global technology landscape [2]. - The emphasis on advanced manufacturing is expected to drive the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure, with specific attention to sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, digital economy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology [2]. Group 2: Optimization of Traditional Industries - The "Suggestions" call for the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, aiming to enhance the global competitiveness of sectors like mining, metallurgy, chemicals, light industry, textiles, machinery, shipbuilding, and construction [3]. - There is a focus on improving the self-control level of industrial chains and promoting smart, green, and service-oriented manufacturing, which is anticipated to create a market space of approximately 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [3]. Group 3: Cultivation of Emerging and Future Industries - The "Suggestions" propose the cultivation of emerging and future industries, emphasizing the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [5]. - There is a forward-looking approach to future industries, exploring diverse technological routes and typical application scenarios, with a focus on quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [5]. - The establishment of mechanisms for investment growth and risk sharing in future industries is highlighted, alongside the promotion of specialized small and medium-sized enterprises and the cultivation of unicorn companies [5].
财报季牛市令各大公司承压
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 12:44
Group 1 - The U.S. stock market remains near historical highs as companies begin to report their summer earnings, with the S&P 500 index only 0.2% below its record high [2] - General Motors reported quarterly earnings that exceeded analyst expectations and raised some full-year performance targets, leading to a 10.2% increase in its stock price [2] - Halliburton and Danaher also saw stock price increases of at least 8% due to quarterly profits surpassing analyst forecasts, while Coca-Cola and GE Aerospace stocks rose by 3.4% and 4.2%, respectively [2] Group 2 - Warner Bros. Discovery announced plans to divest Discovery Global and is considering other options to enhance shareholder value, resulting in a 10.6% increase in its stock price [3] - Despite exceeding analyst profit expectations, PulteGroup's stock fell by 4.1%, and Northrop Grumman's stock declined by 2.3% due to revenue missing analyst forecasts [3] - Major tech stocks are experiencing a pause in their upward momentum, with Alphabet's stock dropping 1.3%, impacting the S&P 500 index [3] Group 3 - Gold prices have decreased by 3.3% from recent historical highs, settling at $4,215.60 per ounce, although they have risen nearly 60% year-to-date [4] - The S&P 500 index has surged 35% since April's low, putting pressure on companies to demonstrate profit growth to justify high stock prices [4] - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed important economic data updates, increasing the significance of corporate earnings reports for assessing economic vitality [4] Group 4 - In overseas markets, most European and Asian indices have risen, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index up 0.3% as investors anticipate favorable policies from newly appointed Prime Minister [5] - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has decreased from 4.00% to 3.95% [6]
“十五五”规划:促进中小企业专精特新发展,培育独角兽企业|快讯
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-10-28 12:12
Core Insights - The "Suggestions" for the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasize innovative regulatory approaches and the development of venture capital to foster the growth of future industries and risk-sharing mechanisms [1] - The plan aims to promote the development of specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and cultivate unicorn companies [1] - It highlights the importance of forward-looking layouts for future industries, exploring diverse technological routes, typical application scenarios, feasible business models, and market regulatory rules [1] - Key sectors identified for economic growth include quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication [1] - The plan also focuses on building emerging pillar industries and implementing industrial innovation projects to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [1] - It calls for the improvement of the industrial ecosystem and the implementation of large-scale application demonstration actions for new technologies, products, and scenarios to expedite the scaling of emerging industries [1]
中航成飞:第三季度净利润12.56亿元,同比增长169.53%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 11:29
Core Insights - The company reported a third-quarter revenue of 27.584 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 139.04% [1] - The net profit for the third quarter was 1.256 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 169.53% [1] - For the first three quarters, the total revenue reached 48.286 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.19% [1] - The net profit for the first three quarters was 2.169 billion, which is a year-on-year decline of 35.21% [1]