宏观周报（2025/7/28-8/1） 要点摘要 【上周焦点】 【宏观经济概览】 【本周重点关注】 2025 年 8 月 4 日 宏观周报 主要股市指数一年表现 国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 主要商品指数一年表现 黄金近一年表现 数据日期：2025 年 8 月 1 日 资料来源：万得，国信证券（香港）财富研 究部整理 曾伟杰 SFC CE No.: BUH477 +852 2899 8300 javezeng@guosen.com.cn 主要利率一年表现 主要汇率一年表现 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及其项下所有内容。 美国：8月1日前美国与欧盟、韩国等国达成关税协议，并 向剩余未达成协定的经济体签发关税行政命令，具体税率 从10%至41%不等；市场聚焦二季度企业财报，Meta、微 软、eBay等公司业绩强劲；但美联储对降息仍谨慎，7月F OMC会议维持基准利率不变，叠加本周陆续公布的GDP、 通胀及就业数据喜忧参半，投资者情绪较上周回落，避险 情绪升温，美股进一步上冲后乏力，周五三大指数下跌抹 去本周涨幅。降息预期一度延后但经济数据恶化又引发市 ...

Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July increased by only 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, indicating a weakening labor market[6] - The downward revision of previous months' data totaled nearly 260,000, raising concerns about the quality of non-farm data[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones falling 1.23% to 43,588.6, the S&P 500 down 1.60% to 6,238.0, and the Nasdaq dropping 2.24% to 20,650.1[11] - European markets also faced significant losses, with the Stoxx 600 index plunging 1.89% amid fears of a global economic slowdown due to new tariffs announced by President Trump[11] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8% to 99.14, while international gold prices rose over 1%[4] - International oil prices dropped sharply, with WTI crude oil down 2.8% to $67.33 per barrel, reflecting concerns over demand growth[31] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields saw a significant decline, with the 2-year yield dropping 27.5 basis points to 3.68%, as market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged to 90%[34] - Asian bond markets showed weakness, with spreads widening by 1-3 basis points, particularly in the Chinese bond market[34] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 8 out of 11 S&P sectors declined, with the consumer discretionary sector leading the losses, down 3.59%[11] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.07%, marking its fourth consecutive decline, with technology stocks underperforming[13]

Core Viewpoint - The China Cybersecurity Association has organized and guided the optimization of five apps in response to issues related to the collection and use of personal information, aiming to enhance compliance with relevant laws and regulations [1] Group 1: Regulatory Compliance - The initiative focuses on addressing problems such as excessive collection of personal information, overuse of sensitive permissions, inconvenient permission settings, and difficulties in account cancellation [1] - The optimization is in accordance with the Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China, the Personal Information Protection Law, and regulations on necessary personal information for common types of mobile internet applications [1] Group 2: App Updates - Five app operators have released updated versions of their applications on app stores or official websites, committing to maintain compliance levels in future updates [1] - The list of optimized apps includes: 1. Cainiao (Mail and Express Delivery) - Version 8.10.715 2. Dongchedi (Used Car Trading) - Version 8.6.7 3. Yiche (Automobile Services) - Version 11.38.1 4. Mafengwo (Travel Services) - Version 11.3.3 5. Tuniu (Travel Services) - Version 11.44.0 [1]

每经AI快讯，8月4日，美股盘前，中概股多数上涨，哔哩哔哩涨约2%，百度涨约2%，小鹏汽车涨约 3%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

本论文主要作者来自小红书 AIGC 团队（Dynamic-X-Lab），Dynamic‑X‑LAB 是一个专注于 AIGC 领域的研究团队，致力于推动姿态驱动的人像生成与视频动画 技术。他们以高质量、高可控性的生成模型为核心，围绕文生图（t2i）、图像生成（i2i）、图像转视频（i2v）和风格迁移加速等方向展开研究，并通过完整的开 源方案分享给开发者与研究者社区。 基于一致性模型（Consistency Models, CMs）的轨迹蒸馏（Trajectory Distillation）为加速扩散模型提供了一个有效框架，通过减少推理步骤来提升效率。然而，现 有的一致性模型在风格化任务中会削弱风格相似性，并损害美学质量 —— 尤其是在处理从部分加噪输入开始去噪的图像到图像（image-to-image）或视频到视频 （video-to-video）变换任务时问题尤为明显。 这一核心问题源于当前方法要求学生模型的概率流常微分方程（PF-ODE）轨迹在初始步骤与其不完美的教师模型对齐。这种仅限初始步骤对齐的策略无法保证整 个轨迹的一致性，从而影响了生成结果的整体质量。 为了解决这一问题，文章提出了 单轨 迹 蒸馏（ ...

非农就业人口占美国总就业人口的比例约 80% ，对美国名义GDP的贡献也大约是80%。非农就业数据不仅是衡量劳动力市场状况的晴雨表，也是评估美国 经济整体健康状况，预测未来经济走向，以及美联储制定宏观经济政策的重要依据。 非农就业人数的增加意味着更多人有工作，有更多的收入，收入的增加会转化为消费支出的增长，人们有能力购买更多的商品和服务，而消费支出是美国经 济增长的主要驱动力。非农就业增长也反映了经济生产能力的提高，更多的人投入工作，意味着整个经济体的商品和服务产出也会增加。 2025年8月1日，星期五，美国劳工部数据统计局公布了7月份的非农就业数据，仅增加 7.3万，大幅低于市场预期。美国三大股指集体下跌，单日蒸发超过 1 万亿美元。 更令投资人担惊受怕的，是本次报告修订了今年5月和6月的非农就业数据：5月非农就业增长人数从14.4万下修至1.9万，下修了12.5万；6月非农就业增长人 数从14.7万下修至1.4万，下修了13.3万。5月和6月合计下修近26万人，这也太离谱了！ 美国总统特朗普看到这份非农就业报告后震怒，当天下令解雇劳工统计局（BLS）局长埃丽卡博士（Erika McEntarfer）。特朗 ...

Group 1 - Alibaba's AI strategy is accelerating across its various business units, with the launch of the AI-native version of Gaode Map, "Gaode Map 2025," which integrates over 20 years of data and technology to create an intelligent travel assistant called "Xiao Gao Laoshi" [1] - The company is focusing on two main directions: e-commerce and cloud + AI, following the return of CEO Cai Chongxin, which has led to divestments in non-core businesses, including the sale of Red Star Macalline [2] - Gaode Map's local life group reported revenue of 16.988 billion yuan, a 12% year-on-year increase, and for the first time, Gaode Map achieved profitability, indicating potential for further growth through AI services [3] Group 2 - The AI capabilities of Gaode Map allow for proactive predictions and actions, transforming the map service from a passive tool to an active partner in travel planning [2] - The divestment of Red Star Macalline, which involved a reduction of up to 130 million shares, reflects Alibaba's strategic shift towards AI and its commitment to focus on core business areas [2] - The integration of AI into Gaode Map aims to enhance user experience by providing personalized travel solutions through its intelligent assistant [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in capital expenditures (CapEx) by major overseas tech companies validates the high prosperity of the computing power industry, while the urgency for domestic computing power autonomy is highlighted due to security concerns with Nvidia chips [2][3]. Capital Expenditure Insights - Google raised its 2025 CapEx forecast by 13.3% to $85 billion - Meta increased its lower CapEx guidance to $66 billion - Microsoft reported a 27% year-on-year growth in Q2 CapEx to $24.2 billion - Amazon's Q2 CapEx surged by 90% to $31.4 billion, with an annual guidance of $110-120 billion - These investments are primarily directed towards AI data centers, large model computing, and cloud facility upgrades, driving core demand in the AI and computing power supply chain [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on the power generation sector, particularly recommending Weichai Heavy Machinery for its strong growth potential - Attention is also advised for the gradually increasing penetration of HVDC segments, with recommendations for Kehua Data, Hezhong Electric, and Tonghe Technology - Additionally, companies benefiting from power upgrades and liquid cooling segments are highlighted, including Invec, Shenling Environment, and Oulu Tong [3]. Overall Sector Rating - The electric power equipment sector maintains a "recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [4].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.49% to 24,627.25 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.93% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.51%, indicating a relatively active market with a half-day trading volume of HKD 126.524 billion [1] - The valuation of core internet leading companies in the Hong Kong stock market remains in the upper-middle range of normal valuation, with a systemic improvement in asset quality [1] - The dual logic of "AI technology transformation + undervaluation recovery" positions Hong Kong internet leaders as quality targets that can withstand economic cycles, with expectations for a comprehensive harvest period in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) supports T+0 trading and focuses on the internet platform economy, including major players like Alibaba, JD.com, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou, and Baidu, with a DeepSeek content ratio of 86% [2] - The ETF possesses dual attributes of "new consumption + new technology," making it a suitable tool for investors to allocate towards AI application and core assets in the "AI + internet" sector [2]

Group 1 - SAIC Motor reported a 34.22% year-on-year increase in vehicle sales for July, totaling 337,500 units, with a production of 323,300 units, marking a 36.11% increase [2] - New energy vehicle sales reached 117,300 units, up 64.91% year-on-year, with production at 100,500 units, a 45.23% increase [2] - Exports and overseas base sales were 82,098 units, a slight increase of 0.41%, with production at 83,129 units, up 2.58% [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's CEO highlighted the rapid growth of digital asset services among banks, with 22 banks approved to sell digital asset products and 13 for tokenized securities as of July 2025 [3] - The Indian Prime Minister Modi stated that India is set to become the world's third-largest economy, indirectly responding to Trump's comments about India's economic status [7] Group 3 - Boeing faces a strike involving approximately 3,200 workers after a labor contract proposal was rejected, with workers primarily involved in manufacturing military aircraft and components for commercial models [4][9] - The company expressed disappointment over the rejection of its proposal and has prepared for the strike with emergency plans in place [9] Group 4 - Experts predict that the central bank may implement further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the end of the third quarter to support economic growth and lower financing costs [5][6] - The Guangdong provincial government released a financial service plan aimed at supporting the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, focusing on enhancing financial service capabilities and risk-sharing mechanisms [10] Group 5 - Recent regulations in various regions have tightened control over pharmaceutical representatives, with some hospitals employing AI to monitor and manage the presence of drug sales personnel [11] - The Guangxi forestry economy achieved a total output value of 549.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a 24.3% year-on-year growth [13]