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瑞银2026-27年全球经济及市场展望
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 10:24
Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to remain weak for the next 4-5 months due to tariffs, but growth is anticipated to accelerate thereafter, particularly influenced by AI developments by 2026 [3][5] - In the baseline scenario, global GDP growth is projected at 3.2% for 2025, slightly decreasing to 3.1% in 2026, and then rising to 3.3% in 2027 [5] - The impact of tariffs is expected to suppress global exports and domestic prices in the U.S., while central banks in major emerging economies continue to lower interest rates [5][10] U.S. Economic Insights - The U.S. economy's expansion is primarily concentrated in AI-related sectors, with GDP growth forecasted to slow from 1.9% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026 due to tariff impacts [10][11] - Inflation is expected to peak around mid-2026, with core PCE inflation projected to decline to 2.9% by Q4 2026 and 2.4% by Q4 2027 [10] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates, with potential cuts of 25 basis points in December 2025 and January 2026 [11] China Economic Forecast - China's GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.5% in 2026, influenced by a slowdown in exports and a resilient domestic economy [13] - Policy support is anticipated to remain moderate, with fiscal deficits expected to expand slightly [13][14] - The "new economy" sectors are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7-8% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) [14] Eurozone and Japan Outlook - The Eurozone's GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.1% in 2026, primarily due to the lagging effects of weak growth in late 2025 [15] - Japan may experience a technical recession in late 2025 but is expected to rebound in mid-2026, supported by a potentially expansionary fiscal policy [16] Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index is expected to have about 10% upside in 2026, driven by approximately 14% earnings growth, with a significant contribution from technology companies [18][19] - The current technology cycle is compared to the 1990s, with substantial capital expenditure growth but still below historical peaks [20] Fixed Income and Currency Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to limit the reduction in front-end interest rates, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield projected to drop to 3.50% before rising to 4% by the end of 2026 [21] - The U.S. dollar is expected to maintain its attractiveness compared to other major markets, with the euro projected to trade between 1.14 and 1.18 against the dollar in 2026 [22] Commodity Insights - Gold is expected to outperform industrial and energy commodities, despite currently high valuations, with a reassessment anticipated in late 2026 [23]
中国贸促会:三方面助力中欧经贸合作走深走实
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-10-02 07:54
Core Points - This year marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the European Union [1] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) is focusing on enhancing high-level economic and trade interactions, supporting enterprises to participate in exhibitions in Europe, and creating high-level cooperation platforms [1] Summary by Categories Economic and Trade Interaction - The CCPIT has approved 373 exhibition projects for various national groups to participate in exhibitions in European countries, covering a total exhibition area of over 210,000 square meters [1] - As of now, 193 exhibition projects have been executed, with a net exhibition area of over 126,000 square meters and participation from over 6,900 enterprises across multiple sectors including machinery, transportation, information communication, and consumer goods [1] Future Cooperation - The CCPIT aims to continue close cooperation with the European business community, adhering to a mutually beneficial direction, and strengthening communication and exchanges to contribute further to China-EU economic and trade cooperation [1]
走进华为全球最大研发中心,世界城市日解码智慧城市独特魅力
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-02 01:32
Core Points - Huawei's Lianqiu Lake R&D Center in Shanghai is the largest R&D center globally, focusing on terminal chips, wireless networks, and IoT [1][5] - The center is a key project for Shanghai's smart city development and aims to enhance the global competitiveness of China's information and communication industry [17] - The 2025 World Cities Day theme emphasizes "innovative development and building people-centered smart cities," encouraging public participation in various activities [1][18] Group 1 - The Lianqiu Lake R&D Center will officially open in October 2024, with a total investment exceeding 10 billion yuan, covering an area of approximately 2.27 million square meters [5][17] - The center is designed with a "technology and nature symbiosis" concept, integrating Jiangnan garden aesthetics with Nordic architectural simplicity [5][7] - The center will accommodate over 30,000 R&D personnel, creating a world-class innovation park [5][17] Group 2 - The event attracted over 20 participants, including citizens and industry experts, highlighting the public's interest in smart cities and sustainable futures [3][7] - Discussions during the event focused on the importance of human-centered design in smart cities, emphasizing convenience, happiness, and accessibility [9][15] - Experts shared insights on the role of digital and intelligent methods in urban governance, aiming to improve livability, inclusivity, and safety in cities [11][17] Group 3 - The event showcased the significance of innovation in urban development, with a call for balancing speed and efficiency in smart city initiatives [13][15] - The Lianqiu Lake R&D Center serves as a model for Shanghai's smart city ambitions, contributing to the region's innovation ecosystem and industrial upgrades [17][18] - Future activities for World Cities Day will focus on enhancing public engagement in smart city development and promoting dialogue and collaboration [18]
报告称中国能源电力行业研发投入居全球首位
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-08-22 12:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that China's energy and electricity sector will lead global R&D investment in 2024, with a total investment of 7.4 billion euros [1][2] - The "Global Leading Enterprises Innovation Development Report (2025)" indicates that the number of top technology clusters in the Asia-Pacific region has expanded to 42, with China having 26 of these clusters, the highest in the world [1] - The report also notes that the "Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou" technology cluster has maintained its position as the second globally for five consecutive years, while Hefei and Zhengzhou have rapidly risen to 36th and 68th places, respectively, with leading growth rates of 22.7% and 18.9% in technological output [1] Group 2 - According to the "China Electricity Market Reform Report (2025)", by the end of 2024, China's electricity trading centers will have organized a total market transaction volume of 6.2 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 62.7% of the total electricity consumption [2] - The construction of the electricity spot market is accelerating, with 29 provinces (regions, municipalities) in China having initiated spot market construction by June 2025, making the southern five provinces the largest and most active "electricity supermarket" globally [2] - In terms of global innovation output, the 2024 Global 2000 Companies list shows that China, along with the US and EU, accounts for significant shares of global R&D investment, with China’s energy and electricity sector leading the way [2]