欢迎来到马莲第一期大摩宏观策略谈马莲开工的首周A股还在休息港股已经开始脸天了 包括525和周一开门就有震荡 先跌后涨主要原因一个就是美国关税一夜生变大家会看到全球跟美国谈的这些贸易谈判是不是在起波折其次对于中国今年物价能不能实现再通胀摆脱通缩这个辩论还是比较白热化的 最后更重要的从海外市场也可以借鉴AI人工智能从普涨变成了分化一方面大家对于资本开支上修出现了不一样的市场反馈另外更重要的就是AI对于其他行业冲击有点像多米诺骨牌似的展开了好像每周都会大幅的冲击一个新的行业 所以马年到底投资市场能否实现一个TG不稳今天我们就试图跟我们的同事们一起来关注这三个议题包括了我们的股票的首席策略师Laura我们的中国经济学家蔡志鹏博士 以及我们也在消费的寒风中寻找亮点特别是旅游行业是否能保持热度这也比较应景跟刚刚过去的九天长假大伙可能在天南海北相互经历的这些游历也能互为印证所以我们交易行业的分析师谦伦也会上线来分析首先我像往常一样抛砖引玉讨论第一个就是美国关税的新变数我们的结论是 尽管短期之内美国对海外各国的民意关税的税率会下一个台阶但是中期看五到六个月之内还是有一些不确定性的它会动用一些其他的工具组合更加定向的对重点国家 ...

2026 年春节社服行业数据点评 20260223 具体子行业在 2026 年春节期间有哪些亮点？ 在交通出行方面，与之密切相关的酒店业在 2025 年双位数下滑的低基数上实 现显著正增长。限时饮品方面，如茶百道和沪上阿姨分别实现双位数和高个位 数的单店或同店增长。此外，海南离岛免税销售额同比增长 19%，虽然较 1 月 日本通过短期直接刺激与中长期制度优化相结合的综合政策路径提升服 务消费发展，如 Go To Campaign 和完善休假制度，为中国当前服务 消费政策提供了参考借鉴意义。 餐饮行业重点推荐瑞幸、古茗、蜜雪和百胜。海底捞创始人回归，推动 红石榴计划。九毛九旗下太二餐厅调改效果逐渐显现。建议关注陕西旅 游，主要项目包括长恨歌演艺和华山索道。 份 40%的增速有所放缓，但仍表现良好。 你们对社服行业未来发展的总体观点是什么？ 摘要 春节期间社服行业复苏明显，交通出行提速，铁路增速达 10.7%，民航 增长 8%，酒店业在低基数上实现显著增长，海南离岛免税销售额同比 增长 19%，表明消费环境企稳，休闲需求强劲。 看好社服行业配置价值，政策刺激效果尚未完全显现，但需求已呈现企 稳回升迹象，政策支持服 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月26日，陕西旅游发布公告称，公司已完成注册资本及公司类型的工商变更登记，注册 资本由5800万元变更为7733.3334万元，公司类型由股份有限公司（非上市、国有控股）变更为股份有 限公司（上市、国有控股）。 ...

Group 1 - The primary obstacle for elderly individuals in tourism is the "age threshold," which has become a common practice among travel agencies to impose restrictions based on age, such as refusing high-age customers, requiring family accompaniment, signing liability waivers, and providing health certificates [1] - Travel companies are setting barriers due to the higher health risks associated with elderly travelers, which complicates issues like trip interruptions, medical care, and liability [1] - Using age as a sole criterion for service provision constitutes discrimination against elderly consumers and violates the principles of fair trade, as it fails to establish a scientific risk assessment mechanism or provide alternative solutions [1] Group 2 - The directive from the State Council emphasizes replacing age constraints with health status assessments, requiring health departments to focus on elderly individuals' physiological functions and chronic disease management to create a scientific health risk assessment system [2] - Travel companies need to develop refined and diversified products tailored to the elderly market, addressing the gap in supply for this demographic by focusing on areas like health and wellness, cultural experiences, and photography [2] - Financial innovation is essential to support elderly travel, encouraging the development of insurance products that cater to elderly travelers, optimizing pricing mechanisms, and expanding coverage to provide adequate protection at reasonable prices [2]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, stating that China will firmly protect its legitimate rights and interests, emphasizing that there are no winners in a trade war [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that from January 14, 2026, it will continue to impose anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea for a period of five years [3] - Five departments, including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, issued a notice to regulate the order of online recruitment, requiring platforms to ensure the authenticity and legality of job postings and to monitor illegal activities [3] Group 2 - The Jiangsu provincial government released an action plan for "Artificial Intelligence +", aiming to cultivate new intelligent native industries and support the development of various AI-related technologies and services [4] - Reports indicate that Tianjin will tighten the management of new residential property prices, limiting price changes to within 10% of the approved price for new sales permits, with stricter measures for significant discounts [4] - Guizhou Moutai announced that its board meeting on January 13, 2026, approved a market-oriented operation plan for Moutai liquor, focusing on a dynamic pricing mechanism based on market conditions [5]

2026年元旦假期，旅游市场迎来强劲开局，在消费结构、目的地选择与玩法体验上展现出深刻变化，为 2026年全年文旅消费的高质量发展奠定了基调。 A04·公司纵横 体验升级、目的地多元与南北交融成新常态 ...

Core Viewpoint - The primary issue facing the Chinese economy and enterprises is how to reduce "involution," which is characterized as ineffective competition leading to a zero-sum or negative-sum game, particularly due to resource bottlenecks [3][4]. Economic Context - The current macroeconomic challenge in China is that many industries are experiencing demand growth that lags behind supply growth, resulting in price declines and increased difficulties for enterprises [3][4]. Industry Example: Tourism - The tourism industry exemplifies this issue, where domestic tourism numbers are increasing moderately, but supply growth (e.g., hotels, attractions) is outpacing demand, leading to price declines of over 10% despite a 5% increase in sales volume [4]. Solutions to Increase Demand - **Expand External Demand**: There is significant potential in service trade, particularly inbound tourism, which has seen rapid growth due to relaxed visa policies. If inbound tourism could reach 1%-2% of GDP, it could represent a substantial economic boost [4][5]. - **Increase Consumer Spending Power**: Proposing direct financial support to consumers through fiscal deficits, amounting to 2%-3% of GDP, to stimulate consumption and address deflationary pressures [5][6]. - **Address Declining Birth Rates**: The significant drop in birth rates poses a long-term risk to economic innovation and growth. Supporting young people financially could alleviate their burdens and encourage higher birth rates [7][8]. - **Provide More Leisure Time**: Reducing overall working hours and increasing vacation time could help balance work and personal life, fostering a healthier consumer environment [9]. - **Educational Reform**: To combat educational involution, reducing unnecessary competitive pressures in the education system is essential. This includes reconsidering the necessity of multiple rounds of academic screening [10][11]. Summary of Recommendations - The overarching strategy to reduce involution in Chinese society can be summarized as "four increases and one decrease": increase foreign visitors, increase financial support, increase birth rates, increase leisure time, and decrease examinations [12].

12月2日，省政府新闻办举行新闻发布会，介绍贵州省"十四五"时期国资国企改革发展成就。 一是经营质效持续向上向好。"十四五"以来，贵州始终坚持高质量发展，全力以赴稳生产、稳经营、稳市场，经济运行持续保 持稳中向好态势。全省国有企业（不含省级金融企业）资产总额从2020年的8.56万亿元增长到2024年的11.23万亿元，营业收入 从5694亿元增长到7835亿元，利润总额从841亿元增加到1150亿元，年均增速分别达7%、8.3%、8.1%。其中，省国资委监管企 业资产总额从1.54万亿元增长到2.25万亿元，营业收入从3740亿元增长到4942亿元，利润总额从820亿元增加到1343亿元，年均 增速分别达9.9%、7.2%、13.1%。 二是产业布局持续优化改善。"十四五"以来，贵州聚焦主责主业大力发展实体经济，助力建设现代化产业体系，持续推动国有 资本布局优化和结构调整，服务全省重大战略实施和重大产业布局的能力持续增强。完成能源集团、民航集团、建投集团、贵 旅集团的战略性重组，完成铝业集团、西能集团、大数据集团、物流集团、习酒集团的专业化整合，新组建农发集团、纺织集 团、外经贸集团、产发公司，一批主责主业 ...

Group 1: Duty-Free Shopping in Hainan - The duty-free shopping experience in Hainan has become increasingly popular among young consumers, allowing them to enjoy low-priced goods without traveling abroad [1] - The duty-free industry is emerging as a significant highlight of Hainan's economy, driven by various promotional activities and favorable policies [1] - By the end of 2025, Hainan will implement a full island closure, marking a crucial step in establishing a free trade port, which is expected to enhance trade and investment policies across a broader scope [1] Group 2: Hainan's Economic Development - Hainan's development has far-reaching implications not only for China but also for other Asian countries and the global economy [3] - The dialogue between Hainan's provincial secretary Feng Fei and Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong highlights the close cooperation between Hainan and Singapore, particularly in tourism and maritime industries [5] - Feng Fei's leadership and background in engineering and management are seen as instrumental in driving Hainan's rapid development and attracting necessary technologies and projects [5][6] Group 3: Leadership and Future Prospects - Feng Fei's educational background, including his studies at prestigious institutions like Tianjin University and Tsinghua University, has equipped him with the skills necessary for effective governance [6][7] - Since joining the government, Feng Fei has rapidly advanced through the ranks, demonstrating strong academic and professional capabilities [7] - As the new provincial secretary of Hainan, Feng Fei is tasked with promoting rapid development in key industries and accelerating state-owned enterprise reforms, positioning Hainan as a vibrant economic region in the future [8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 0.4% to 0.3%[1] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, while year-on-year they decreased by 4.4%, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In September, PPI remained flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.3% from -2.9%[2] - Production demand improved, supporting price increases in some energy and raw material sectors[2] - The coal processing price rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while the prices for coal mining and washing increased by 2.5%[2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in CPI may continue into October due to tailwind factors, with a focus on the progress of pig production capacity reduction[2] - The real estate market remains weak, with property sales area and sales value down 4.7% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively[2] - M1 growth has been rising, which is expected to support PPI improvement, although the overall PPI is unlikely to turn positive this year[2]