本周热点：再提反"内卷式"竞争，调整优化生猪产能。7 月 1 日，中 央财经委员会第六次会议召开，强调依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引 导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出等。而在二季度农业部也一 直提到持续调整优化生猪产能，生猪产业降重稳产持续进行。 根据涌益咨询数据，集团降重明显，本周集团出栏体重 124.59 公斤，较 上周下降 0.25 公斤；整体生猪出栏均重 128.64 公斤，较上周增加 0.50 公 斤，环比增长 0.39%，主要是周内价格上涨，散户及二育大猪出栏积极性 提升带动整体体重上升，较上月同期下降 0.53 公斤，下降-0.41%。后续 看，随着气温升高，生猪增重速度下降，体重有望持续下降。其次从产能 来看，农业部联合五部委发布 2025 年 5 月生猪产品数据，2025 年 5 月末 能繁母猪存栏 4042 万头，环比上涨 0.1%，相当于正常保有量的 103.6%， 较去年年末高点减少 38 万头。从后续看，目前行业仍处于盈利情况，根 据涌益咨询，本周自繁自养模式母猪 50 头以下规模出栏肥猪利润为 189.1 元/头，较上周增加 62.24 元/头，本周外购仔猪育肥出栏利润为 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The pet sector showed strong performance during the 618 pre-sale event, with significant sales growth and a notable increase in domestic brand presence [12][13] - In the pig farming sector, the average selling price of lean pigs decreased to 14.46 CNY/kg, down 1.2% from the previous week, indicating a low valuation environment [14][15] - The poultry sector experienced a slight decline in white feather chicken prices, with the average price at 7.36 CNY/kg, down 0.5% [14][30] - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance growth potential in the agricultural sector [14] - The fluctuation of agricultural product prices and the ongoing adjustment of poultry production capacity present investment opportunities [14] Summary by Sections Weekly Highlights - The pet category performed exceptionally well during the 618 sales event, with sales figures surpassing last year's first-day totals [12] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with significant sales growth reported for several brands [13] Agricultural Data Tracking - The average selling price of lean pigs is 14.46 CNY/kg, down 1.2% from last week, while the average wholesale price of pork remains stable at 20.95 CNY/kg [15][16] - The average price of white feather chickens is 7.36 CNY/kg, down 0.5%, and the average price of chicken products is stable at 8.86 CNY/kg [30][31] - The price of 15kg piglets decreased to 42.42 CNY/kg, down 2.1% from last week [20][34] Livestock and Poultry - The self-breeding profit for pigs decreased to 48.21 CNY/head, down 32.45 CNY from last week, while the profit from purchased piglets is negative [17][21] - The average price of meat chicken seedlings remains stable at 2.85 CNY each [26][30] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, enhancing the growth potential of industry companies [14] - The fluctuation in agricultural product prices is expected to create opportunities for leading feed companies to replace smaller competitors [14]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 农林牧渔 关注巴西商业家禽确认禽流感病毒 本周热点：关注巴西商业家禽确认禽流感病毒。巴西农业和畜牧业部于 5 月 15 日证实在南里奥格兰德州商业家禽饲养员中检测到高致病性禽 流感病毒。对于事件的影响我们解读如下：1）本次发生的禽流感病毒 位于南里奥格兰德州，该州在华注册企业有 8 家，均已于 2024 年 7 月 17 日起处于暂停进口状态，若本次禽流感没有进一步影响州外或海关 总署公告对巴西全国的进口停滞，则实质影响相对有限；2）我国鸡肉 的进口依赖度并不高，2024 年进口鸡肉 97.6 万吨，而白羽鸡肉产量 1778.9 万吨，进口依赖度 5.5%，但是由于国人对于鸡副的需求较多， 进口鸡肉主要以爪翅等鸡副为主，占比达到约 76%，而巴西是我国重 要的鸡副进口国，2024 年自巴西进口冻鸡翼、冻鸡爪占产品总进口比 例分别为 75%、43%，若后续对于巴西停滞进口，则可能引发鸡副价 格的上涨，进而带动整体鸡肉价的上升，建议关注巴西禽流感后续进 展。 生猪养殖：本周全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价 14.63 元/kg，较上周下降 ...