Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - The price of yellow chickens continues to rise, with average prices for fast, medium, and slow-growing yellow feathered chickens at 10.84 CNY/kg, 12.68 CNY/kg, and 15.24 CNY/kg respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 5.9%, 5.0%, and 5.0% [13][14] - The supply side is experiencing a significant reduction in the supply of medium and fast-growing chickens, leading to market shortages, while high-end products are selling well [13] - Demand is being driven by seasonal factors such as graduation banquets and preparations for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which is boosting overall sales [13] - The current cycle of prosperity in the industry is expected to last about one quarter, with a recovery in the fundamentals of the sector [13] Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - The average price for lean pigs is 13.71 CNY/kg, down 0.2% from last week, indicating a relatively low valuation [14][16] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.1 CNY/kg, up 0.2% from last week [16] - Self-breeding pigs show a profit of 33.95 CNY per head, while purchased piglets show a loss of 151.8 CNY per head [18][19] Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chickens is 7.33 CNY/kg, up 1.8% from last week, while the average price for chicken products is 8.75 CNY/kg, down 0.6% [30] - The price of meat chicken chicks remains stable at 3.58 CNY each [25] - The yellow chicken production capacity is being adjusted, with a focus on seasonal price elasticity opportunities [14] Planting and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies [14] Supporting Industries - The volatility of agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller companies due to their advantages in procurement, scale, and capital [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Views - The USDA significantly raised the corn production forecast for the U.S. while lowering the soybean production forecast [1][15] - The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.5 percentage points this week [11] Summary by Sections Global Supply and Demand Adjustments - Global wheat production for the 2025/26 season was lowered by 1.65 million tons to 807 million tons, with consumption down by 1.1 million tons to 809.5 million tons [2][16] - Global rice production was raised by 200,000 tons to 541.5 million tons, with consumption up by 400,000 tons to 542 million tons [2][16] - Global corn production was increased by 24.92 million tons to 1.28886 billion tons, primarily due to a 26.33 million ton increase in U.S. corn production [2][16] - Global soybean production was decreased by 1.3 million tons to 426 million tons, mainly due to declines in the U.S. and Serbia [2][16] Domestic Supply and Demand Forecasts - China's corn supply and demand forecast remains unchanged from last month, with overall supply and demand in a tight balance [3][17] - The soybean supply and demand forecast for China also remains unchanged, with favorable conditions for growth in major production areas [3][17] Livestock and Poultry - The national price for lean pigs is 13.74 CNY/kg, down 0.4% from last week, indicating a relatively low valuation [18][19] - White feather chicken prices increased to 7.2 CNY/kg, up 0.8% from last week, while chicken product prices decreased to 8.8 CNY/kg, down 0.6% [18][32] - The price of meat chicken chicks rose to 3.58 CNY each, up 14.4% from last week [18][28] Agricultural Products and Planting - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential for growth in the sector [18] - The agricultural sector is experiencing increased price volatility, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller firms due to their advantages [18] Price Trends - Domestic corn spot price is 2394.12 CNY/ton, down 0.1% from last week [46] - Domestic soybean spot price is 3952.63 CNY/ton, up 0.7% from last week [56] - Domestic wheat spot price is 2438.11 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase from last week [51]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - The poultry prices have recently rebounded significantly, with white feather broiler chick prices rising to 3.1 CNY per chick, up 216.2% from the low in the second week of July [14][16] - The average price of broiler chickens is 7.14 CNY per kg, an increase of 14.4% from the previous low [14][16] - The average price of chicken products is 8.85 CNY per kg, up 5.7% from the low in July [14][16] - The supply side shows a notable decline in parent stock inventory, which fell to 21.385 million sets by the fourth week of July, down 6.8% from the first week of July [14] - Seasonal demand is expected to increase due to school stocking in September and October, with July marking the peak season for replenishment [14] - The sentiment in the market has been positively influenced by strict regulations on Thai poultry exports, which has led to a price increase of 500-1000 CNY per ton for chicken [14] Summary by Sections Swine Farming - The national price for lean pigs is 13.79 CNY per kg, down 2.3% from last week [16][17] - The current valuation remains relatively low, with a focus on leading companies with cost-effectiveness such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [16][17] Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broiler chickens is 7.14 CNY per kg, up 4.5% from last week [16][32] - The average price of chicken products is 8.85 CNY per kg, an increase of 3.6% from last week [16][32] - The price of broiler chicks is 3.13 CNY per chick, up 21.8% from last week [16][29] - The yellow feather broiler market is adjusting its capacity, with a focus on seasonal price elasticity opportunities [16] Planting and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth in industry companies as prices and profit distribution become clearer [16] Breeding Support - The volatility in agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller firms due to their advantages in procurement and scale [16]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Views - In the second quarter of 2025, the average price of live pigs is expected to be 14.5 CNY/kg, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous quarter and 11.4% year-on-year. However, due to the decline in raw material prices and improved breeding performance, listed companies are optimizing costs [15][16] - The poultry sector is facing challenges, with yellow feathered chicken prices remaining low at an average of 11.3 CNY/kg, down 2.4% quarter-on-quarter and 15.5% year-on-year. The profitability of leading companies like Wen's Group may be under pressure due to these price declines [15][16] - The feed sector is benefiting from stable pig prices and rising aquatic product prices, with Haida Group expected to achieve a feed sales volume of approximately 13.65 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 26% [15][16] Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - The national price of lean meat pigs is 14.54 CNY/kg, down 2% from last week. The current valuation remains relatively low, with a focus on leading companies and low-cost high-growth targets such as Muyuan Foods and Wen's Group [2][16] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 6.24 CNY/kg, down 7.6% from last week, while chicken product prices average 8.38 CNY/kg, down 0.9% [16][30] - The price of parent stock chicken chicks is 47.2 CNY/set, up 1% week-on-week, while the price of meat chicken chicks is 0.99 CNY each, down 27.2% [26][28] Feed Sector - Haida Group is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.218-1.518 billion CNY in the second quarter, with a year-on-year change of -3.64% to +20.1% [15][16] - The pet feed industry continues to maintain high growth, with expectations for Zhongchong Group to achieve a net profit of approximately 120 million CNY in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of about 40% [15][16] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies as actual transaction prices and profit distribution are confirmed [16] - The fluctuation of agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller companies due to their advantages in procurement, scale, and capital [16]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Increase" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The pet industry continues to show strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, with 400 merchants doubling their transaction volume and significant growth in user engagement [12][13] - In the pig farming sector, the average selling price of lean pigs is 14.05 CNY/kg, down 0.1% from the previous week, indicating a relatively low valuation and highlighting potential investment opportunities in leading companies with cost advantages [15][16] - The poultry sector is experiencing price declines, with broiler prices at 7.12 CNY/kg, down 2.1%, and chick prices down 32.1% to 1.86 CNY each, suggesting a need for monitoring price recovery opportunities [15][25] Summary by Sections Pet Industry - During the 618 shopping festival, 400 merchants on JD.com saw their transaction volume double, with a 32% year-on-year increase in transaction users and a 39% increase in new pet owners [2][13] - Leading brands in pet food include Royal Canin and Maffidi, with significant improvements in rankings for domestic brands [3][14] Pig Farming - The average price for lean pigs is 14.05 CNY/kg, down 0.1% from last week, while the average wholesale price for pork is 20.33 CNY/kg, up 0.3% [16][17] - The profitability for self-breeding pigs is 19.4 CNY/head, while purchasing piglets results in a loss of 186.79 CNY/head [18][19] Poultry Farming - Broiler prices have decreased, with the average price at 7.12 CNY/kg and chicken product prices at 8.65 CNY/kg, both showing declines [30][32] - The price of meat chicks has dropped significantly, indicating potential volatility in the market [25][28] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies, with commercial sales anticipated to begin soon [4] - The agricultural sector is currently facing price fluctuations, with leading feed companies likely to benefit from their scale and supply chain advantages [15]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The pet sector showed strong performance during the 618 pre-sale event, with significant sales growth and a notable increase in domestic brand market share [12][13] - In the pig farming sector, the average selling price of lean pigs decreased to 14.46 CNY/kg, down 1.2% from the previous week, indicating a low valuation environment [14][15] - The poultry sector experienced a slight decline in white feather chicken prices, with the average price at 7.36 CNY/kg, down 0.5% [14][30] - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance growth potential in the agricultural sector [14] - The fluctuation of agricultural product prices and the ongoing adjustment of poultry production capacity present investment opportunities [14] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The 618 pre-sale event saw pet category sales exceed last year's first-day total within 100 minutes, with a 180% increase in live-stream sales [12] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with significant sales growth reported for brands like Jueyan and Toptrees [13] Pig Farming - The average selling price of lean pigs is 14.46 CNY/kg, down 1.2% week-on-week, with a focus on low-cost, high-growth companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [14][15] - The average wholesale price of pork remained stable at 20.95 CNY/kg [15] Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices decreased to 7.36 CNY/kg, while chicken product prices remained stable at 8.86 CNY/kg [30] - The price of meat chicken chicks held steady at 2.85 CNY each [30] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is set to enter commercial sales, with expectations for growth in industry companies [14] Feed and Vaccines - The agricultural sector is experiencing price volatility, with leading feed companies likely to benefit from their scale and supply chain advantages [14]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The pet sector showed strong performance during the 618 pre-sale event, with significant sales growth and a notable increase in domestic brand presence [12][13] - In the pig farming sector, the average selling price of lean pigs decreased to 14.46 CNY/kg, down 1.2% from the previous week, indicating a low valuation environment [14][15] - The poultry sector experienced a slight decline in white feather chicken prices, with the average price at 7.36 CNY/kg, down 0.5% [14][30] - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance growth potential in the agricultural sector [14] - The fluctuation of agricultural product prices and the ongoing adjustment of poultry production capacity present investment opportunities [14] Summary by Sections Weekly Highlights - The pet category performed exceptionally well during the 618 sales event, with sales figures surpassing last year's first-day totals [12] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with significant sales growth reported for several brands [13] Agricultural Data Tracking - The average selling price of lean pigs is 14.46 CNY/kg, down 1.2% from last week, while the average wholesale price of pork remains stable at 20.95 CNY/kg [15][16] - The average price of white feather chickens is 7.36 CNY/kg, down 0.5%, and the average price of chicken products is stable at 8.86 CNY/kg [30][31] - The price of 15kg piglets decreased to 42.42 CNY/kg, down 2.1% from last week [20][34] Livestock and Poultry - The self-breeding profit for pigs decreased to 48.21 CNY/head, down 32.45 CNY from last week, while the profit from purchased piglets is negative [17][21] - The average price of meat chicken seedlings remains stable at 2.85 CNY each [26][30] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, enhancing the growth potential of industry companies [14] - The fluctuation in agricultural product prices is expected to create opportunities for leading feed companies to replace smaller competitors [14]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Increase" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The recent confirmation of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in Brazilian commercial poultry may have limited impact if it does not affect imports from other states or lead to nationwide import suspensions [11][12] - The reliance on chicken imports from Brazil is low, with only 5.5% of chicken meat being imported, primarily consisting of chicken by-products [11] - The price of lean pork has decreased to 14.63 CNY/kg, down 0.7% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 1.6% to 20.94 CNY/kg [12][13] - White feather chicken prices have dropped to 7.4 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.7%, and chicken product prices have also fallen by 0.4% to 8.86 CNY/kg [12][24] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies [12] - The agricultural sector has underperformed the market by 1.1 percentage points this week, with a slight increase of 0.05% [8][9] Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - The price of lean pork is currently 14.63 CNY/kg, down 0.7% from last week, with a focus on leading companies with cost-effectiveness such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [12][13] - The average price of white feather chicken is 7.4 CNY/kg, down 0.7%, and the average price of chicken products is 8.86 CNY/kg, down 0.4% [12][24] - The price of meat chicken chicks is 2.85 CNY each, down 2.1% from last week [12][22] Planting and Agricultural Products - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to begin following the public announcement period, with potential for significant growth in the sector [12] Breeding Support - The volatility in agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller firms due to their advantages in procurement and scale [12]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the agriculture sector [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the SW Agriculture sector achieved a total profit of 13.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1049%, with significant contributions from the breeding, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors, accounting for 59%, 16%, and 15% of profits respectively [10][11] - The breeding sector saw a profit of 8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 254%, driven primarily by pig farming, which generated 7.615 billion yuan, up 242% year-on-year [10][11] - The feed and animal health sectors reported profits of 2.143 billion yuan and 512 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 676% and 34% [10][11] - The planting sector experienced a profit of 800 million yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, influenced by declining grain prices [10][11] Summary by Sections Breeding Sector - The average price of lean pigs was 14.69 yuan/kg, down 1.1% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork was 20.59 yuan/kg, down 1.4% [12][13] - The profit from self-breeding pigs decreased to 85.05 yuan per head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 48.53 yuan per head [14][15] - The average price of broiler chickens was 7.48 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from the previous week, and the average price of chicken products remained stable at 8.9 yuan/kg [25][27] Feed and Animal Health - The feed sector's profit growth was supported by the performance of the breeding sector, with significant increases in profits from poultry and aquatic feeds [10][11] - The pet food segment also showed strong performance, achieving a profit of 330 million yuan, up 28% year-on-year [10] Planting Sector - The planting sector's profit decline was attributed to lower prices for corn and wheat, which fell by 11% and 14% year-on-year, respectively [10][11] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies [11] Market Trends - The agriculture sector underperformed the broader market by 0.1 percentage points, with a decline of 0.6% [8][9] - The feed sector saw a slight increase of 1.65% during the same period [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - Recent white chicken prices have rebounded after a prolonged decline, with meat chicken prices at 6.59 yuan/kg, up 8% week-on-week, and chicken chick prices at 2.54 yuan/chick, up 10.9% week-on-week. This price recovery is attributed to a supply shortage due to seasonal factors and increased slaughter profits [10][12] - In the pig farming sector, the average price for lean pigs is 14.44 yuan/kg, down 0.6% from the previous week, indicating a continued low valuation in the market. The focus is on leading companies with cost-effectiveness and growth potential [12][14] - The planting and agricultural products sector is expected to see growth potential following the approval of genetically modified varieties for commercial sales, which will gradually confirm the growth and realization timeline for industry companies [12] Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - The average price for lean pigs is 14.44 yuan/kg, down 0.6% week-on-week, with the average wholesale price for pork at 20.81 yuan/kg, down 0.2% [14][15] - In poultry farming, the average price for white feathered meat chickens is 6.59 yuan/kg, up 8% week-on-week, while the average price for chicken products is 8.97 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [12][27] - The profit for self-bred pigs is 33.56 yuan/head, down 9.52 yuan/head, while the profit for purchased piglets is -12.52 yuan/head, down 21.91 yuan/head [16][33] Agricultural Products - The domestic corn spot price is 2229.12 yuan/ton, up 0.5% week-on-week, while the soybean spot price is 3856.79 yuan/ton, down 0.6% [42][56] - The average price for domestic wheat is 2424.61 yuan/ton, down 0.4% week-on-week, and the average price for domestic soybean meal is 3648.57 yuan/ton, down 2.2% [45][63] Industry Recommendations - Companies to watch in the white feathered chicken sector include Shengnong Development, Hefeng Co., and Xiantan Co. due to their complete industry chain [11][12] - In the pig farming sector, focus on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wen's Foodstuffs, and Tangrenshen for their cost-effectiveness and growth potential [12]