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国泰海通 · 晨报260106|周期破晓见曦,成长擎画新篇
国泰海通证券研究· 2026-01-05 12:55
每周 一 景 :上海浦东陆家嘴 点击右上角菜单,收听朗读版 【农业】 周期破晓见曦,成长擎画新篇—— 农林牧渔展望 2026 行业报告 生猪养殖:政策、周期双驱动,产能逻辑催化。 1)价格:2026H1预计猪价延续低迷,行业延续低利润。2)产能:产能政策和周期调节,产能去化持续。3)负债降低,成本下降。关注成本改善、具备成 长性的生猪养殖企业。 禽养殖:白鸡供需静待修复,黄鸡需求或提升。 1)白鸡产业链价格陷入深度低迷,供需回归平衡尚需时间。2)黄鸡价格或将小幅修复,关注中华土鸡推广活动对黄鸡消费的带动作用。 牛养殖:养殖周期长,供给侧收缩推动价格上涨。 1)肉牛养殖周期长,我国肉牛养殖格局分散,散户行为影响大。2)2022-2024年的价格低位推动去化,2025年起出栏量环比下降,价格有望持续景气。 养殖后周期:饲料销量有望增长,龙头集中度提升。动保关注新品进展。 1)2026年养殖存栏量仍然较高,行业景气度持续向上,其中2026年上半年企业饲料销量增速预期高于下半年。2)动保需求受养殖低利润影响,2026年动 保景气度或承压,关注新品(如非洲猪瘟疫苗、宠物疫苗)进展。 种植:粮价有望稳中向上,自主可控,关 ...
农林牧渔展望 2026 行业报告:周期破晓见曦,成长擎画新篇
Haitong Securities International· 2026-01-05 06:40
Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on the cyclical turning points in the pig and beef farming sectors, highlighting companies like Muyuan Foods and WH Group as potential investments. The pet industry shows clear growth potential, with companies that integrate production, sales, and research expected to succeed, such as Zhongchong Co., Guibao Pet, and Petty Co. The planting sector also has significant growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Morning Light Bio and Noposion [11]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is expected to face continued low prices in the first half of 2026, driven by both policy and cyclical factors, with a focus on cost improvement and growth potential in pig farming enterprises [2][15]. - The poultry sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with white chicken prices remaining low and yellow chicken demand potentially increasing due to promotional activities [3][37]. - The beef farming sector is characterized by a long production cycle, with supply-side contractions likely to drive prices upward, particularly from 2025 onwards [4][46]. - The feed and animal health sectors are expected to see growth in sales, with a focus on the competitive landscape and the impact of low profits on animal health demand [5][63]. - The planting sector is projected to see stable grain prices, driven by domestic control and innovation, with a focus on specialty crops and plant extracts [6][69]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Prices are expected to remain low in the first half of 2026, with a gradual increase in supply due to rising breeding sow inventories [15]. - Capacity policies and cyclical adjustments are leading to a continued reduction in production capacity, with a focus on cost reduction and debt management among pig farming companies [23][27]. - Companies like Muyuan Foods are highlighted for their cost improvements, with expectations of further reductions in production costs [29]. Poultry Farming - The white chicken industry is in a deep price slump, with recovery expected to take time, while yellow chicken prices may see slight recovery due to promotional efforts [32][37]. - Leading companies are improving their operational efficiencies to cope with low prices, which may enhance their performance when prices recover [33]. Beef Farming - The long production cycle and fragmented market structure of beef farming in China are significant factors, with supply reductions expected to lead to price increases starting in 2025 [41][46]. - The beef supply is projected to decrease in the latter half of 2025, with expectations of continued price increases through 2027 [47]. Feed and Animal Health - The feed sector is expected to see a recovery in sales, with high inventory levels in the livestock sector supporting growth [52]. - The animal health sector may face pressure due to low profits in the livestock sector, but there are opportunities for breakthroughs in key products [63][65]. Planting - Grain prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with a focus on domestic production and innovation in seed varieties [69][75]. - The planting sector is seeing a shift towards high-quality, innovative seed varieties, with companies like Kangnong Seed showing strong growth potential [87].
成武农商银行精准支持新农人创业,为乡村振兴注入金融动能
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-12-27 07:19
齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点李可通讯员朱国朝 "当时我们正处于扩大生产的关键时期,资金短缺可能会让之前的投入付诸东流。"张先生回忆道。该行 根据其实际情况,迅速为他办理了20万元贷款。这笔资金及时到位,助力张先生顺利扩建了标准化大 棚,并配备了更先进的温控设备。 在金融支持下,张先生的菌菇产业步入快速发展轨道。如今,种植基地已从最初的一个大棚扩展为数座 联排大棚,菌菇品质稳定,产品销路不断拓宽。更值得一提的是,他的成功带动了周边村民就业,初步 形成了"基地+农户"的发展模式。 "如果没有农商银行在关键时刻的支持,我们可能还在为资金问题四处奔波,很难这么快走上正轨。"张 先生感慨道。现在,他已成为当地小有名气的"菌菇专家",并将自己的创业经验分享给更多创业青年。 从积累资金到获得金融助力,从单打独斗到带动一方发展,张先生的创业历程充分展现了新时代青年投 身乡村振兴的担当与作为。该行将持续关注农村创业群体的金融需求,不断创新金融产品和服务模式, 为更多"新农人"提供精准、及时的资金支持,让金融活水更好地浇灌乡村创业热土,为乡村振兴贡献更 多金融力量。 新一代年轻人从城市职场回归乡土创业,正为乡村全面振兴注入新活力。成武县九 ...
【渭南】消费帮扶“架金桥” 乡村振兴添动能
Shan Xi Ri Bao· 2025-12-24 23:22
Group 1 - The core idea of the articles highlights the successful implementation of the "832 platform" in promoting agricultural products from poverty-stricken areas, significantly improving sales and providing stable employment opportunities for local residents [1][2][3] - Shaanxi Baikang Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. has sold over 650 tons of agricultural products, achieving sales revenue of over 15 million yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of the platform in enhancing local agricultural businesses [1] - The "832 platform" has facilitated the sale of 3,003 product types, including apples and dried fruits, with total sales reaching 90.23 million yuan this year, showcasing the platform's role in expanding market access for quality agricultural products [2][3] Group 2 - The city of Weinan has established a comprehensive consumption assistance system, emphasizing quality and supply chain integrity, which has led to the entry of 180 quality suppliers into the "832 platform" [2] - Weinan's government has actively engaged in multi-faceted support, including budget units prioritizing procurement from the platform, resulting in 19.09 million yuan in agricultural product purchases from poverty-stricken areas [3] - The city has also focused on brand development, creating nine regional public brands and 28 well-known enterprise brands, enhancing the market presence of Weinan's agricultural products [3]
特色“产业链”变成“共富链” 浙江庆元食用菌产业实现跃迁
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2025-12-18 12:23
转自:新华财经 近年来,聚焦食用菌产业链各项融资难、贷款难问题,邮储银行庆元县支行积极打造全链条金融服务体系,助力特 色"产业链"演变成"共富链"。截至2025年10月末,已累计为该产业提供2.8亿元信贷支持。 早在南宋时期(约公元1131年),庆元县龙岩村的吴三公发明了"原木砍花法"和"惊蕈术",开创了人工栽培香菇的先 河,使庆元成为全球香菇栽培技术的起源地。1989年,联合国教科文组织国际热带菇类学会主席张树庭教授考察后 题词"香菇之源";1995年,庆元被国务院发展研究中心授予"世界人工栽培香菇历史最早"认证。 凭借地理优势和栽种底蕴,庆元的食用菌产业蓬勃发展,形成了从菌棒生产、菌菇种植、加工到销售较为完善的上 下游产业链条,带动数万农户增收,2024年全产业链产值达58亿元。庆元县食用菌产业链早在2021年便作为浙江省 首批示范性农业全产业链之一,成功入选全国农业全产业链典型县。 在产业链中游,很多食用菌种植大户在购买菌棒和扩建菇棚时都会面临融资困扰。据悉,庆元全县种植2万棒以上食 用菌的种植户约2600余户,占比约60%,信贷需求主要集中于这部分种植户。为提升金融服务覆盖面,邮储银行庆 元县支行主动 ...
第三届广东林业博览会达成项目签约212.65亿元
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-03 11:34
第三届广东林业博览会达成项目签约212.65亿元 博览会现场。广东省林业局 供图 "明年5月,我们公司采用亚临界萃取技术的加工基地将投产,一年可消化1万吨山苍子原料。"清远连南 绿连林业发展有限公司项目负责人邱永康说,先进技术的落地,正把山苍子的价值彻底"萃取"出来,转 化为实实在在的产业动能。(完) 来源:中国新闻网 编辑:张嘉怡 与往届相比,本届广东林博会参与企业更多、规模更大、产销对接更紧密,并举办林业高质量发展推介 等8项活动,吸引了7万人次进馆参观。 本届广东林博会期间,肇庆馆展台上的菌菇汤翻滚蒸腾,吸引不少人品尝。"这次参会收获远超预期, 已与多家优质农产品经销商达成初步合作意向。"德庆县双华食品厂负责人宋红权称,"我们的菌菇卖断 货了!没想到人气这么旺。" 活跃的采购团是本届广东林博会交易升级的显著标志。广州绿秧田食品有限公司负责人陈仪带着一个50 余人的大湾区采购商团队参会。陈仪表示,广东林博会的产品品质更优、新鲜度更高、品类更贴合需 求,既适配南方市场特点,又契合当下大众对健康养生的消费追求。 在梅州市农林科学院微生物研究所展区前,电子显微镜下的灵芝孢子吸引不少人驻足围观。据悉,自 2021 ...
满帮与陕西佛坪达成帮扶计划,让秦岭“山货”坐上数字物流快车
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-11-21 03:18
Core Insights - Foping County, located in the Qinling Mountains, is recognized for its rich ecological environment and is known as "China's Panda County" due to its high forest coverage and being a core habitat for giant pandas [1] - The local government has partnered with Manbang Group to enhance the logistics industry, which is crucial for the efficient development of agriculture and the export of local products [1][3] Group 1: Agricultural Development - Foping County is a major production area for the medicinal herb Cornus officinalis, contributing one-sixth of the national output, and has developed a standardized processing and branding system for this product [3] - The local agricultural sector has diversified by developing various products such as Cornus officinalis liquor, honey, mushrooms, and black pork, which are gaining market popularity [3] - The county has established a significant ecological fishery industry, with the first outbound aquatic animal breeding farm in Shaanxi Province and multiple national-level healthy aquaculture demonstration sites [3] Group 2: Logistics and Infrastructure - The partnership with Manbang Group aims to leverage online resources and technology to support local logistics, enhance efficiency, and reduce operational costs for farmers and drivers [3][4] - The increasing demand for daily necessities and food due to rising tourism necessitates improved logistics to facilitate the import of goods into Foping County [3] Group 3: Technological Integration - Manbang Group operates as a "Internet + Logistics" technology enterprise, focusing on creating a digital, standardized, and intelligent logistics ecosystem [4] - The company utilizes advanced technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence to enhance the logistics industry's efficiency and transparency, aiming for cost reduction and green development [4]
辉煌“十四五” 壮美新答卷 | 广西守稳不发生规模性返贫致贫底线
Guang Xi Ri Bao· 2025-11-16 02:40
Core Insights - The article highlights the successful transformation of Liuliu Village in Tiandong County, Guangxi, showcasing the effective connection between poverty alleviation and rural revitalization efforts [2][3] Infrastructure Development - The improvement of infrastructure, particularly the construction of industrial roads, has significantly enhanced the transportation of mangoes, reducing damage during transit and increasing market prices by 0.6 yuan per kilogram [2][3] - The village has seen a rise in living standards, with modern amenities and public facilities contributing to a better quality of life for residents [2] Agricultural Innovation - Liuliu Village has partnered with Xiangguang Agricultural Company to implement advanced agricultural techniques, leading to higher prices for mangoes, with premium fruits selling for 7 yuan per kilogram [3] - The village's dual production of mangoes and cherry tomatoes generates an annual output value of 38.7 million yuan [4] Employment and Income Generation - The collaboration with Xiangguang has created job opportunities for over 80 villagers, with an average annual income increase of 12,000 yuan per person [3] - In Guigang City, the development of facility agriculture has attracted 238 projects, creating employment for 23,000 rural workers and increasing farmers' income by over 6,800 yuan [5] Health and Social Support - Guangxi has established a layered support system for low-income populations, focusing on employment and community integration to prevent poverty recurrence [6] - The region has achieved a high success rate in treating chronic diseases, with a 99.99% treatment rate for major illnesses since 2021 [5][6]
福建:持续推进政府采购数字化转型
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-16 00:42
Core Viewpoint - The digital transformation of government procurement in Fujian Province has significantly improved efficiency and convenience for small-scale purchases, with a notable increase in transaction volume and value since the launch of the new online supermarket platform [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Transformation and Impact - The Fujian government procurement online supermarket has processed 935 orders and surpassed a total transaction amount of 10 million yuan within three months of launching the self-purchase section [1]. - The platform allows for full electronic transactions and dynamic supervision for goods and services under a certain budget, enhancing the management efficiency of government procurement [1][2]. Group 2: Self-Purchase Platform Features - The self-purchase platform operates independently, catering to procurement projects below the centralized procurement threshold, and mandates a fully electronic process without paper materials [2]. - The platform features a "comprehensive hall" for office supplies and daily necessities, with 56,000 products across 150 categories, and a "specialty hall" focusing on local products and green materials [2]. Group 3: Regulatory and Analytical Innovations - The platform employs an "AI + human" dual-track supervision system to ensure compliance and prevent price inflation, with AI monitoring product details and a human team verifying brand qualifications [3]. - Future developments will include predictive analytics for procurement trends and supplier credit assessments to enhance decision-making and regulatory oversight [3].
引金融活水 润彭城沃野 江苏徐州金融机构助力谱写乡村振兴新篇章
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-11-13 03:30
Group 1: Agricultural Development and Financial Support - A veteran entrepreneur, Miao Jiaxin, has transformed from a soldier to a leader in "antibiotic-free egg" farming, producing 400,000 fresh eggs daily and generating over 80 million yuan in annual sales [1] - The Xuzhou Rural Commercial Bank has provided 14.5 million yuan in credit support to Miao, enabling over 30 local households to join the antibiotic-free farming initiative, each increasing their annual income by over 100,000 yuan [1] - As of August 2025, the agricultural loan balance in Xuzhou reached 461.36 billion yuan, with an increase of 58.15 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.97% [1] Group 2: Food Security and Infrastructure Financing - The Xuzhou branch of the People's Bank of China emphasizes food security, guiding financial institutions to prepare special credit funds for grain purchases and offering interest rate discounts to grain operators [2] - In the first eight months of 2025, the city issued 8.29 billion yuan in re-loans and discounts, with 3.535 billion yuan allocated for agricultural support [2] - The Agricultural Bank of Xuzhou has increased credit investments in rural infrastructure, providing over 2 billion yuan in loans for rural projects, significantly improving living conditions in rural areas [2] Group 3: Ecological Restoration and Financial Innovation - Xuzhou has supported ecological restoration projects in 19 abandoned mining sites and promoted green low-carbon development in rural areas [3] - The Xuzhou branch of the People's Bank of China has innovated "government + finance" services, enabling local banks to handle over 240 government services and improve access to financial services in rural areas [3] Group 4: Financing Mechanisms and Entrepreneurship - The Xuzhou branch of the People's Bank of China has established a mechanism linking monetary policy tools with entrepreneurship loans, issuing 144.917 million yuan in such loans from January to August 2025 [4] - The bank has collaborated with various departments to provide targeted loans for major agricultural projects, totaling 20.5 million yuan in the same period [4] - The Xuzhou Rural Commercial Bank has issued 35.75 billion yuan in agricultural loans, benefiting nearly 100,000 small and micro enterprises and farmers [4] Group 5: Support for Agricultural Enterprises - Jiangsu Kangsheng Agricultural Development Co., which produces 60 tons of mushrooms daily, has received 30-40 million yuan in loans from Xuzhou Rural Commercial Bank, highlighting the bank's role in supporting local agricultural enterprises [5] - The bank has provided 290 million yuan in comprehensive credit support to Weiwei Food and Beverage Co., a national-level agricultural industrialization leader, facilitating its growth into a large enterprise group [7]