公司报告 | 公司专题研究 中国中冶（601618） 证券研究报告 从矿产资源看中国中冶重估价值 在产矿山稳健运营，扩产+补充勘探进一步推动在手矿山高质量发展 公司的矿产资源主要集中在镍、钴、铜、铅、锌等金属品种的采矿、选矿、 冶炼等领域，现有海外矿山 7 座。公司主要的三座在产矿山 2025H1 实现 营收 28.2 亿元，占公司总营收的 1.2%，实现归中方利润 5.5 亿元，占公 司归母净利润的 17.8%，矿产资源业务逐步成为公司稳定可持续发展的重 要力量。25H1 公司三座主要在产矿山目前在手资源量为：镍 211.5 万吨/ 钴 21.9 万吨/铜 179.1 万吨//铅 31.4 万吨/锌 61.5 万吨，生产氢氧化镍 钴含镍/氢氧化镍钴含钴/粗铜/铅精矿含铅/锌精矿含锌分别为 15534、 1435、11562、5029、23331 万吨，同比分别-1.9%/-0.5%/1.2%/13.8%/5.3%。 其中：1）巴布亚新几内亚瑞木镍钴矿自 2012 年竣工投产以来，已形成年 产 32601 吨镍和年产 3300 吨钴的生产能力，多年来保持稳产高产，目前 正在推进二期扩产项目；3）公司预计巴基斯 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook based on recent market performance [2][5] - The company's mineral resources are abundant, with stable operations in its existing mines, producing nickel, cobalt, copper, lead, and zinc [8][9] - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 15,534 tons of nickel, 1,435 tons of cobalt, 11,562 tons of copper, 5,029 tons of lead, and 23,331 tons of zinc, with respective year-on-year changes of -1.91%, -0.49%, 1.22%, 13.75%, and 5.32% [9][10] Group 2 - The company is making steady progress on its undeveloped copper mines, with expectations to enter the construction phase this year [30][33] - The Pakistan Siyadik copper mine has a resource volume of 3.78 million tons, with all relevant approval processes applied for and largely approved as of the first half of 2025 [30][31] - The Afghanistan Aynak copper mine, with a resource volume of 12.36 million tons, has seen significant progress, with the access road completed and mining operations expected to start by the end of 2025 [33][34] Group 3 - The report draws comparisons with Hongda Co., indicating that the company's valuation in the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to be reassessed positively [34][36] - Since the breakthrough in project progress on August 2, 2025, the market capitalization of the company has increased by approximately 80.15 billion and 85.01 billion for its A and H shares respectively [36][38] - The company holds a 75% stake in the Aynak copper mine and an 80% stake in the Siyadik copper mine, corresponding to an equity resource volume of approximately 12.29 million tons [38][39]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 21 年 月 日 建筑装饰 新疆板块迎密集催化期，继续重点推荐中国中冶 H 与四川路桥 本周核心观点：9 月以来新疆发布 70 周年庆祝活动标识，央行发行新疆 成立 70 周年金银纪念币，本周国新办发布《新时代党的治疆方略的成功 实践》白皮书，70 周年庆典活动渐近，后续中央有望给予新疆更多支持政 策，有望为新疆板块业绩与估值带来显著催化。1）重点关注受益新疆交通 基建持续景气的新疆本地基建龙头新疆交建、北新路桥，新疆民爆龙头雪 峰科技、广东宏大（收购雪雪峰科技），新疆建领域水泥龙龙头青松建化、预 拌混凝土龙头西部建设、钢铁龙头八一钢铁等。2）重点推荐受益新疆煤 化工项目及绿色甲醇推进提速的 EPC 龙头中国化学收PB 0.71X）、东华科 技收25PE 16.7X）、三维化学收25PE 17.0X，25E 股息率 5.8%）、关注航 天工程等。今年在经济筑底，美联储降息周期背景下，金、铜等主要金属 价格震荡上行，有色板块持续大涨，矿产资源丰富的建筑企业价值亟待重 估，重点推荐中国中冶 H（收部部估值 718 亿元，空间 71%），中国中铁 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both China Metallurgical Group (中国中冶) and China Railway Group (中国中铁) [5][12]. Core Insights - China Metallurgical Group has significant copper reserves, with a valuation potential of 707 billion H shares, indicating a 62% upside [16][27]. - China Railway Group benefits from rising molybdenum prices, with a valuation potential of 1,471 billion H shares, indicating a 71% upside [30][31]. Summary by Sections China Metallurgical Group - The company has three operating mines and two mines awaiting development, with copper resources totaling 1,484 thousand tons [16][23]. - In the first half of 2025, the operating mines generated a profit of 5.5 billion yuan, a 29% increase year-on-year, contributing 18% to the company's net profit [16][18]. - The potential profit from the two awaiting mines is estimated at approximately 33 billion yuan, significantly enhancing the resource segment's contribution [23][29]. - The estimated total value of the company is 876 billion yuan, with a 23% upside compared to its current market value [23][27]. China Railway Group - The company operates five modern mines with significant copper and molybdenum reserves, leading to a 27% year-on-year increase in net profit from its resource segment [30][31]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 258 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 7.4% year-on-year [30][31]. - The estimated total value of the company is 1,872 billion yuan, with a 36% upside compared to its current market value [30][31]. - The company has seen a significant increase in new orders, with a 20% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in its construction segment [33][34]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - For China Metallurgical Group, the projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 61, 65, and 70 billion yuan, respectively [29]. - For China Railway Group, the projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 258, 253, and 255 billion yuan, respectively [30][31]. - Both companies are currently trading at low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating potential for valuation recovery [29][31].

Core Insights - The company reported a 2025 H1 revenue of 237.53 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 20.52%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.10 billion yuan, down 25.31% year-over-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 22.59% to 115.26 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.49 billion yuan, indicating a challenging operating environment [1] - Overall revenue growth is under pressure due to declining demand in the steel industry, sluggish growth in the construction sector, and significant adjustments in the real estate industry, alongside the company's own transformation efforts [1] Revenue and Profitability - The company's gross profit margin improved to 10.09%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points year-over-year, with specific segments showing growth: engineering contracting at 9.58% (+1.08 pct) and specialty businesses at 17.62% (+0.99 pct) [1] - Operating cash flow also improved year-over-year, indicating better cash management despite revenue challenges [1] Contractual Performance - In H1 2025, the company signed new contracts worth 548.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.1% year-over-year, while new overseas contracts amounted to 57.75 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 32.6% [2] - The core business segments, including metallurgical engineering and non-ferrous mining, continue to gain a larger share of new contracts [2] Future Outlook - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 476.54 billion yuan, 495.13 billion yuan, and 516.54 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 13% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 4.06 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 3.41 CNY as of August 29, 2025 [3]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in non-net profit attributable to the parent company in Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 30.88% [1]. - Despite overall revenue pressure due to external factors such as declining steel demand and real estate adjustments, the company has shown robust growth in overseas new contracts, particularly in the mining sector [3][8]. - The company's gross profit margin improved to 10.09% in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.04 percentage points [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 237.53 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 20.52%, and a net profit of 3.099 billion CNY, down 25.31% year-on-year [1]. - The Q2 2025 operating revenue was 115.26 billion CNY, a decline of 22.59%, while the net profit was 1.492 billion CNY, showing a slight increase of 1.43% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s sales gross margin was 10.09% in H1 2025, with the engineering contracting segment at 9.58% and the specialty business at 17.62% [2]. Contract and Business Development - The company signed new contracts worth 548.2 billion CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 19.1%, with overseas contracts amounting to 57.75 billion CNY, representing a growth of 32.6% [3]. - The mining resources segment, focusing on metals like nickel, cobalt, and copper, generated revenue of 3.298 billion CNY in H1 2025, with three overseas mines contributing 2.82 billion CNY [3]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s operating cash flow showed improvement, with a net outflow of 21.985 billion CNY in H1 2025, which is a reduction of 33.20% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 5.71 billion CNY, with expected revenues of 476.54 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.67% [8].

Core Viewpoint - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (China MCC) reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, but the stock price increased by over 8% following the earnings release, indicating market optimism about future performance improvements [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 237.53 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 20.52% [1] - Shareholder profit was 3.10 billion RMB, down 25.31% year-on-year [1] - Quarterly analysis shows Q1 and Q2 revenues decreased by 18% and 23% respectively, while net profit attributable to shareholders saw a decline of 40% in Q1 but a slight increase of 1% in Q2, indicating a recovery trend [1] Operational Highlights - In the first half of the year, three operational mines generated a total revenue of 2.8 billion RMB, an increase of 3% year-on-year [1] - The attributable profit from these mines was 550 million RMB, up 29% year-on-year, accounting for 18% of the company's net profit [1] - Specific contributions from individual mines include 230 million RMB from Ruimu Nickel-Cobalt Mine, 150 million RMB from Shandake Copper-Gold Mine, and 170 million RMB from Duda Lead-Zinc Mine [1] Future Prospects - The company has completed all necessary approval processes for the Sia Dike Copper Mine project in Pakistan, which is expected to contribute positively to future earnings [1] - The Aynak Copper Mine in Afghanistan is advancing in feasibility studies and road construction, with expectations of significant performance contributions once operational [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (China MCC) experienced a stock price increase of over 8% following the release of its interim results, despite a decline in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 237.53 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 20.52% [1] - Shareholder profit was 3.10 billion RMB, down 25.31% year-on-year [1] - Quarterly analysis shows Q1 and Q2 revenues decreased by 18% and 23% respectively, while net profit attributable to shareholders saw a decline of 40% in Q1 but a slight increase of 1% in Q2 [1] Operational Highlights - In the first half of the year, three operational mines generated a total revenue of 2.8 billion RMB, an increase of 3% year-on-year [1] - The attributable profit from these mines was 550 million RMB, up 29% year-on-year, accounting for 18% of the company's net profit [1] - Specific contributions from individual mines include 230 million RMB from Ruimu Nickel-Cobalt Mine, 150 million RMB from Shandake Copper-Gold Mine, and 170 million RMB from Duda Lead-Zinc Mine [1] Future Prospects - The approval process for the Sia Dike Copper Mine project in Pakistan has been fully applied for and is largely approved [1] - The Aynak Copper Mine in Afghanistan is accelerating preliminary preparations, including feasibility studies and access road construction [1] - The commencement of production at these two mines is expected to significantly enhance the performance contribution from the resource sector, indicating considerable potential for value reassessment [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (China MCC) has shown a significant year-on-year growth in its Q2 performance, with a non-recurring profit increase of 31%, leading to a "Buy" rating from Tianfeng Securities [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, China MCC reported a revenue of 237.53 billion, a decrease of 20.52% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.10 billion, down 25.31% [1] - Q2 alone saw a revenue of 115.26 billion, a decline of 22.59%, but a slight increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 1.43% [1] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 6.15 billion, 6.66 billion, and 7.27 billion respectively [1] Business Segments - In H1 2025, revenue from engineering contracting, specialty businesses, and comprehensive real estate was 216.91 billion, 18.31 billion, and 4.80 billion respectively, with declines of 21.79%, 5.23%, and 4.63% [2] - The mining resources segment showed potential with profits from various projects, including 230 million from the Papua New Guinea nickel-cobalt project and 150 million from the Pakistan copper-gold project [2] - The company is advancing the feasibility studies and road construction for the Afghanistan Aynak copper mine, with 8.9 kilometers of the access road completed [2] Contracting and Orders - In H1 2025, new contracts signed totaled 548.2 billion, a decrease of 19.1%, but the core business segments of metallurgy and non-ferrous mining saw an increase in their share of new contracts [3] - The company achieved a significant milestone with the signing of the first overseas low-carbon ironmaking project in Brazil [3] - New contracts in overseas markets reached 57.69 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.5% [3] Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 10.09%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 1.71% [4] - Operating cash flow showed improvement with a net outflow of 21.99 billion, a reduction of 6.42 billion compared to the previous year, attributed to enhanced collection efforts and cost-cutting measures [4] Earnings Forecast - Recent earnings forecasts from various institutions indicate a range of net profit predictions for 2025, with estimates varying from 6.09 billion to 8.16 billion [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][18]. Core Views - The company experienced a 31% year-on-year growth in non-recurring profit for Q2, despite a 20.52% decline in revenue for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. - The revenue decline is attributed to weak growth in the construction industry and significant adjustments in the real estate sector [1]. - The company is focusing on the revaluation of mineral resources, with significant potential in its mining projects [2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 237.53 billion, a decrease of 20.52% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.10 billion, down 25.31% [1]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 10.09%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 21.99 billion, which is a reduction of 6.42 billion compared to the previous year, indicating improved cash collection efforts [4]. Business Segments - The engineering contracting segment generated 216.91 billion in revenue, down 21.79% year-on-year, while the mining resources segment showed potential with profits from various projects [2]. - The company signed new contracts worth 548.2 billion in H1 2025, a decrease of 19.1% year-on-year, but with a notable increase in overseas contracts by 32.5% [3]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 6.15 billion, 6.66 billion, and 7.27 billion respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook [1]. - The ongoing projects in Papua New Guinea and Pakistan are expected to contribute positively to the company's future profitability as copper prices are anticipated to receive support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2].