证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业重大事项点评 Token 推理大爆发，国产算力再迎海量需求 事项： 2026 年 2 月 9 日至 15 日，OpenRouter 数据显示，中国模型以 4.12 万亿 Token 的调用量，首次超过同期美国模型的 2.94 万亿 Token。2 月 16 日至 22 日，平 台调用量排名前五的模型中，有四款来自中国厂商，分别为 MiniMax 的 M2.5、 月之暗面的 Kimi K2.5、智谱的 GLM-5 以及 DeepSeek 的 V3.2。这四款模型合 计贡献了 Top5 总调用量的 85.7%。 评论： 行业研究 计算机 2026 年 03 月 02 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周楚薇 邮箱：zhouchuwei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 337 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 62,840.76 | 4.84 | | 流通市值(亿元) | ...

当市场还在讨论「大厂光环」是否褪色，一群字节系创业者用真金白银的融资数据给出了答案。 2026年2月的中国创投市场，有一个现象值得关注：在整体环境仍被「谨慎」二字主导时，一批有着字节跳动背景的创业者却密集拿到了融资。 根据IT桔子监测，仅2月份就有5家字节系创业公司完成新一轮融资—— 创始人吴德周的履历堪称「顶配」：华为荣耀产品线总经理（华为第一款千万级出货手机的缔造者）、锤子科技CTO、字节跳动新石实验室总裁。2022年 离开字节后创立致敬未知，做的是AI运动眼镜BleeqUp，切入骑行、滑雪等户外场景。 来自致敬未知arknovv官网 值得注意的是，吴德周在字节的任期相对较短，但这段经历显然为他的AR项目增添了AI技术落地的想象空间。如今半年内连续完成两轮大额融资，阿 里、创维、博裕等一线机构接连下注，显示出资本对「硬件老兵 + AI新场景」组合的认可。 生数科技：骆怡航的「商业化补位」 2月5日，视频生成大模型公司生数科技完成超6亿元A + 轮融资，刷新国内视频生成领域单笔融资纪录。这距离2025年3月骆怡航加入担任CEO接近一年。 从AI视频生成到固态电池，从智能体平台到科幻SLG游戏，赛道跨度极大， ...

1月30日，中科寒武纪科技股份有限公司(寒武纪；688256.SH)发布《2025年年度业绩预告》，宣告公司 实现历史性财务拐点：全年营业收入预计超过60亿元，同比增长逾410%；归属于母公司所有者的净利 润预计达18.5亿元至21.5亿元，成功实现扭亏为盈。 这一转折标志着公司正式告别多年亏损，迈入商业化收获期。作为中国AI芯片领域的代表性企业，寒 武纪的盈利兑现不仅验证了其技术路线的市场可行性，更折射出在算力自主战略驱动下，国产高端芯片 正从"可用"走向"好用"与"规模商用"。在全球人工智能基础设施加速重构的背景下，这一突破具有行业 标杆意义。 根据《2025年年度业绩预告》，公司预计2025年年度实现营业收入60亿元至70亿元，较2024年的11.74 亿元增长410.87%至496.02%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润预计为18.5亿元至21.5亿元，扣除非经常性 损益后的净利润为16亿元至19亿元。相比2024年亏损4.52亿元，公司实现历史性扭亏为盈。 寒武纪业绩实现根本性扭转与数倍增长的背后，是人工智能应用加速落地与国产算力替代的双重驱动。 第一上海证券在报告中指出，2025年初以来，全球大厂均在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the strategic collaboration between Youzu Interactive and Sunrise to explore efficient integration of domestic inference chips into game operations, aiming to create a self-controlled, practical "Game AI Computing Solution" for the industry [1] - This partnership is expected to enhance the capital attention and valuation elasticity of Youzu Interactive in the short term, while in the medium to long term, it may strengthen performance certainty through domestic computing power substitution and AI cost reduction [1] - The collaboration is anticipated to positively influence capital expectations in both the gaming and domestic GPU sectors [1] Group 2 - The game "Black Myth: Wukong" has been selected for the proposed award list of the 6th China Publishing Government Award, highlighting its significance in the industry [2] - This game is recognized as the first true AAA single-player game in China, generating global discussions since its launch in 2024 [2] - The inclusion in a national-level publishing award list signifies official recognition of its content quality, cultural value, and industry benchmark significance [2] Group 3 - G-bits has announced an expected net profit increase of 79% to 97% for the year 2025, projecting a net profit of 1.69 billion to 1.86 billion yuan [3] - The company anticipates a non-deducted net profit of 1.65 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for 2025, representing an increase of 88% to 105% compared to the previous year [3] - The growth in net profit is primarily attributed to the contribution of new products launched in 2025, indicating the company's strong capabilities in the gaming sector [3]

Group 1 - The GEO concept has significantly boosted AI applications, with stocks like Shiji Information and Taxfriend both hitting the daily limit up, and others like Yidian Tianxia rising by 14.20% [1] - The cloud computing ETF (159890) opened with a 3.39% increase and saw substantial net inflows, indicating strong investor interest in AI-related stocks [1][6] - The ETF tracks a broad range of sectors, with IT services, horizontal general software, and vertical application software making up approximately 65% of its index, highlighting its deep investment in AI applications [6] Group 2 - The U.S. has relaxed export regulations on Nvidia's H200 chips to China, but the impact on the domestic computing power industry is expected to be limited due to differing application scenarios [3] - Domestic computing power is primarily focused on small to medium models and inference applications, which do not overlap significantly with the H200's training applications [3] - By 2026, domestic computing power is projected to capture over 400 billion yuan of the estimated 600-650 billion yuan allocated for domestic purchases, driven by major companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent [3] Group 3 - The AI industry is transitioning from a focus on "computing power competition" to "application landing," with a growing emphasis on commercializing AI applications [4] - Historical trends suggest that hard technology follows a cyclical pattern, while soft technology is more influenced by changes in business models, indicating a potential new wave of software market activity [4] - The AI market is expected to maintain a high configuration cost-performance ratio as it enters its second phase in 2026, with applications becoming the core focus [4]

Core Insights - The global economy in 2026 is facing three ongoing deepening issues: the profound impact of geopolitical stability in the East and instability in the West, the ongoing devaluation of the US dollar, and a renewed recognition of China's industrial strength [1] - There is an ongoing exploration to break deflation, focusing on the precise implementation of policies, with expectations that national subsidies will continue but with greater emphasis on technology application scenarios [1] - The stock market outlook is positive, with recent performances in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks injecting confidence into the market for 2026, indicating a neutral to favorable environment for investing in Chinese assets [1] Investment Climate - The strengthening of the RMB against the USD is a complete positive for overseas investors in the Chinese stock market, enhancing China's investability [2] - With all other factors remaining constant, the RMB appreciation trend is expected to lead to sustained foreign investment in Chinese equity assets in the coming months [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Geopolitical Landscape**: The global geopolitical situation is evolving, with a continued depreciation of the US dollar expected. The Chinese yuan may experience a mild appreciation against the dollar, but potential impacts on exports and deflation should be monitored [1][2][5]. - **Chinese Technology Innovation**: China's technological capabilities are improving, particularly in AI-related hardware and software, as well as domestic computing power replacements. This trend is expected to attract both domestic and international investors, benefiting A-shares and Hong Kong IPO financing [1][2][8]. - **Consumer Stimulus Policies**: The government is implementing targeted consumer stimulus policies, with an estimated 300 billion RMB allocated for the first quarter, primarily aimed at durable consumer goods. If consumption and employment do not meet expectations, the stimulus may expand to include service sector consumption vouchers [1][2][3]. Real Estate Market - **Real Estate Relief Measures**: Relief measures in the real estate sector will focus on inventory reduction and mortgage interest rate subsidies. Initial trials will be conducted in select cities, with the potential for expansion based on effectiveness [3][4]. Fiscal Policy - **Fiscal Policy Focus**: The fiscal policy in the first half of the year will emphasize the early issuance of local special bonds, targeting urban renewal, underground infrastructure, green transformation, smart grid storage, and AI computing infrastructure. Mid-term fiscal spending may increase by approximately 0.5% of GDP (around 700 billion RMB) to support technology applications and real estate relief [4][11]. Economic Growth Projections - **GDP Growth Expectations**: The actual GDP growth for China in 2025 is projected to be around 4.8%, with exports maintaining a mid-to-high single-digit growth rate. However, nominal GDP growth is expected to be lower than actual GDP growth, reflecting cautious private sector performance [1][16][17]. Stock Market Outlook - **Stock Market Trends**: The outlook for the Chinese stock market in 2026 is relatively optimistic, despite some volatility at the end of 2025. The market's performance will depend on the continuation of macroeconomic trends and appropriate policy support [7][8][15]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Factors influencing the stock market include macroeconomic data, corporate earnings, liquidity conditions, market valuation levels, and changes in investor sentiment. Recent positive developments in the IPO market, particularly for GPU-related companies, have increased market activity [9][10]. Currency and Investment - **Renminbi Strength**: The recent strengthening of the renminbi is attributed to a trade surplus exceeding 1 trillion USD and the central bank's allowance for a moderate appreciation. However, the broader context of US dollar depreciation and geopolitical uncertainties remains significant [5][6][19]. - **Foreign Investment in Chinese Stocks**: The appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar is favorable for foreign investors in Chinese stocks, making RMB-denominated assets more attractive [13][14][15]. AI Hardware Market - **AI Hardware Development**: The future of the AI hardware sector is optimistic, with significant demand expected for AI semiconductors. The approval of NVIDIA's export of H200 chips to China is anticipated to positively impact the Chinese AI computing chip market [20][23]. Automotive Industry Trends - **Automotive Market Dynamics**: The automotive industry is expected to face challenges and opportunities in globalization. Exports are projected to increase by 12% by 2026, but there are risks associated with traditional vehicle exports and potential trade barriers in developed markets [25][27]. - **New Energy Vehicle Development**: Key focuses for new energy vehicle technology development include smart driving and AI integration, with expectations for significant penetration of advanced driving technologies by 2030 [28][29].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a cumulative increase of 1.62% from December 1, 2025, to January 2, 2026, with a total trading volume of approximately 1,129 billion CNY[10] - The index showed a pattern of "oscillating downward, bottoming mid-month, and accelerating rebound at the beginning of 2026" during this period[10] Valuation Analysis - As of January 2, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 23.80, positioned at the 36.40% historical percentile since its inception on July 27, 2020, indicating a relatively low historical valuation[13] Technical Analysis - The risk degree (TR) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was -0.41 as of January 2, 2026, indicating a low-risk environment and a favorable risk-reward ratio[18] - The index's current price is near the main peak of the chip distribution, suggesting manageable selling pressure if it rebounds to that level[18] Macro Factors - Domestic PMI improved in November, and CPI/core CPI showed signs of recovery, providing support for the tech sector's valuation[23] - U.S. employment data showed weakness, contributing to fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which impacted the risk appetite for Hong Kong tech stocks[23] Policy Support - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stable growth and support for 2026, alleviating concerns about liquidity tightening[27] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled potential interest rate cuts, although future paths remain uncertain, affecting U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, which are crucial for Hong Kong tech valuations[27] Industry Dynamics - The end-of-year promotions in e-commerce extended the sales cycle, enhancing transaction expectations on the platform side[36] - The AI and semiconductor sectors saw increased attention and funding at the beginning of January, boosting short-term elasticity in the tech sector[36] Key Event Outlook - Weak U.S. non-farm payroll, CPI/PCE, and GDP data could raise interest rate cut expectations, benefiting Hong Kong tech valuations; conversely, strong data may constrain liquidity and valuation elasticity[42] Index Outlook - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to trend upward in January 2026, driven by seasonal trading and potential foreign capital inflow, with volatility likely to increase during event windows[42] Related ETF Products - The Huaxia Hang Seng Tech ETF (513180) closely tracks the Hang Seng Tech Index, with a total market value of 48.95 billion CNY and a trading volume of 2.907 billion CNY on January 2, 2026[10]

Core Insights - The report projects that China's economy is expected to maintain a reasonable growth rate of around 5% in 2026, supported by improved consumption, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing upgrades [6] - The textile and apparel sector is anticipated to see structural opportunities, particularly in textile manufacturing and home textiles, as the market shows signs of recovery [6][7] - The report highlights the performance of specific companies within the textile sector, recommending investments in leading manufacturers due to their competitive advantages and market positioning [7][8] Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,965.28, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.49% [4] - The textile and apparel sector recorded a cumulative increase of 12.02% in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.08 percentage points [7] Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the economic growth risks have generally decreased, with supportive policies expected to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumer confidence [6] - CPI is projected to improve moderately, driven by rising pork and service prices, while PPI is expected to narrow its decline and potentially recover by Q4 2026 [6] Sector Analysis - The textile manufacturing segment is under pressure due to tariff impacts but is expected to benefit from a recovery in overseas demand and inventory levels [7] - Specific companies such as Yuanyuan Group and Shenzhou International are highlighted for their lower exposure to U.S. markets and strong recovery potential [7][8] Consumer Behavior - Domestic consumer confidence is gradually recovering, with retail sales in various categories showing positive growth, particularly in online channels [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in product offerings within the home textile sector, with companies like Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textiles showing promising growth in specific product categories [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong operational performance and innovative product lines, particularly in women's apparel and home textiles [7][8] - It also highlights the potential for growth in the AI and smart manufacturing sectors, particularly for companies like Ruisheng Intelligent, which is expanding its capabilities in AI computing and robotics [10]

Core Viewpoint - Muxi Integrated Circuit (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. has successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board, marking a significant milestone for the company in the high-performance GPU market [1][3]. Company Overview - Muxi is a leading domestic enterprise in high-performance general-purpose GPU products, focusing on the research, design, and sales of GPUs for artificial intelligence training and inference, general computing, and graphics rendering [3][7]. - The company has a strong technical foundation and continuous innovation, positioning its products as leaders in versatility, core performance, commercialization, and autonomy within the domestic market [3]. Financial Highlights - The stock was issued at a price of 104.66 yuan per share, raising a total of 4.197 billion yuan, which will be invested in new high-performance GPU R&D and industrialization projects [3]. - As of the listing date, the stock price reached 824.50 yuan per share, with a market capitalization nearing 330 billion yuan [3]. Strategic Partnerships and Investments - Advantage Capital has partnered with strategic ally Yuanlu Jia to build an AI computing power cluster based on domestic self-developed GPU technology, with successful operations of the first-generation product, Xiyun C500, in Shanghai [5]. - The successful operation of the thousand-card cluster has reinforced confidence in investing in Muxi, with plans to continue collaborating with ecosystem partners to explore quality project investment opportunities [5]. Policy Support and Market Position - Muxi is among the few companies mastering high-performance GPU chip and system software development, which will help expand market share and enhance technological reserves [7]. - The company’s listing process took only 116 days, showcasing the effectiveness of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reforms in supporting technology innovation enterprises [7]. Technological Advancements - Muxi has developed a complete set of core technologies, including GPU IP, GPU SoC, and high-speed interconnects, with a total of 245 domestic invention patents and 25 software copyrights as of March 2025 [9]. - The company has launched the Xisi N series GPUs for inference and the Xiyun C series GPUs for training and general computing, with the Xiyun C500 series achieving leading performance levels domestically [11]. Growth Metrics - Muxi has experienced a compound annual growth rate of 4074.52% over the past three years, with revenue reaching 915 million yuan in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total revenue for 2024 [12]. - The company has a backlog of orders amounting to 1.43 billion yuan, indicating rapid growth and market demand [12]. Ecosystem and Industry Impact - Muxi is building a "1+6+X" ecosystem to support various industries, including finance, healthcare, energy, education, transportation, and entertainment, positioning itself as a key player in the autonomous and controllable intelligent computing infrastructure in China [12]. - The company's GPU products have been deployed in multiple national AI public computing platforms and commercial intelligent computing centers, making it one of the few suppliers to achieve large-scale commercial applications of "thousand-card clusters" [12].