国外 1. 法巴银行：在美联储降息后平仓10年期美债空头 法巴银行在其分析师报告中表示，在美联储如期降息后，已在一项做空10年期美债的交易中获利了结， 该交易押注美债收益率上升。该行在收益率为4.09%时建仓，并在4.15%时平仓。分析师称："我们认 为，美联储失衡的政策反应机制将在下一份非农就业数据公布前对利率市场构成压力。"尽管美联储此 次决议投票出现分歧，但决策者正强调美国劳动力市场的疲软态势。 2. 惠誉：预计2026年美国杠杆贷款违约率将回落 惠誉评级分析师在报告中表示，随着美联储继续降息，美国杠杆融资领域的违约率预计将在2026年下 降。分析师指出，"更为宽松的货币政策"将为高负债发行人缓解因高额利息支出带来的压力。他们预 计，2026年底美国杠杆贷款违约率将介于4.5%至5.0%之间，而美国高收益债违约率将在2.5%至3.0%之 间。 3. 丰业银行：美元熊市才刚刚开始 丰业银行团队表示，今年以来，美元对多数货币走低，但这发生在多年上涨之后。美元多头不应掉以轻 心，最严峻的考验尚未到来。在该行《2026年展望焦点》报告中，分析师肖恩·奥斯本和埃里克·泰奥雷 坚持原有观点：美元将普遍走弱，这一趋势 ...

市场昨日震荡调整，沪深两市成交额1.86万亿，较上一个交易日放量786亿。板块方面，商业航天、次 新股等板块涨幅居前，福建、房地产等板块跌幅居前。截至昨日收盘，沪指跌0.7%，深成指跌1.27%， 创业板指跌1.41%。 在今天的券商晨会上，中信建投指出，国内脑机接口公司有望逐步实现商业化应用；天风证券认为，全 球SOFC进入加速扩产阶段；中金公司表示，浆纸一体化龙头有望继续获得超额利润。 中信建投：国内脑机接口公司有望逐步实现商业化应用 天风证券认为，受到电源建设周期及电网输电能力限制，美国电力紧缺给SOFC发展带来新机遇。数据 中心负荷波动极大，对供电可靠性要求极高。SOFC的低冗余配置、功率跟踪优势，使其更适配数据中 心需求。SOFCLCOE已接近燃气发电，天风证券认为随着规模化降本成本优势有望进一步体现。全球 SOFC进入加速扩产阶段。 中金公司：浆纸一体化龙头有望继续获得超额利润 中金公司发布造纸行业2026年展望称，展望2026年，消费需求仍在温和修复阶段，各类纸种供给变化各 异：浆纸系纸种供需仍然宽松，浆价成为行业补库、及去库关键推动力，浆纸一体化龙头有望继续获得 超额利润；箱板瓦楞纸产能已基本 ...

中金公司（601995）发布造纸行业2026年展望称，展望2026年，消费需求仍在温和修复阶段，各类纸种 供给变化各异：浆纸系纸种供需仍然宽松，浆价成为行业补库、及去库关键推动力，浆纸一体化龙头有 望继续获得超额利润；箱板瓦楞纸产能已基本收尾，有望率先走出本轮供需失衡周期，迎来产能利用率 修复，吨纸价格中枢同比抬升的业绩修复行情。 NO.3中信建投：国内脑机接口公司有望逐步实现商业化应用 12月12日，中信建投（601066）研报认为，脑机接口产业链上中游的技术进步带来下游应用端不断突 破，近年来国内外在运动恢复、语言沟通、听力重建等医疗领域的研究不断出现里程碑式成果。国家层 面和各地区推出多项政策利好行业加速发展，近期国家医保局发文为脑机接口新技术价格单独立项，其 进入临床应用的服务收费路径已经铺好。在技术革新和政策红利催化下，国内脑机接口公司有望逐步实 现商业化应用。 ｜2025年12月12日星期五｜ NO.1开源证券：高度看好商业航天的投资机遇 开源证券指出，近期商业航天司的设立及商业航天发展（000547）三年规划的出台，充分彰显顶层对商 业航天发展的重视。同时，我国商业航天已初步形成覆盖上游制造、中 ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments aim to strengthen the construction of data element disciplines and digital talent teams to promote the integration of education, talent, industry, and innovation in the data field [1] - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association has optimized the merger note mechanism to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and support corporate mergers and acquisitions [2] - Fujian Province has issued measures to promote the orderly development of computing power infrastructure, encouraging the planning of urban computing networks and upgrading submarine cables [3][21] Group 2 - The brain-computer interface sector is experiencing accelerated commercialization driven by policy and technology, with current valuations aligning with emerging growth characteristics [4][22] - Leading lithium iron phosphate companies are raising prices, with one company announcing a processing fee increase of 3000 yuan per ton starting January 1, 2026 [5][23] - New regulations on credit repair have been introduced to facilitate the revival of business entities, expanding the scope of credit repair and shortening processing times [6][24] Group 3 - Shanghai is moving towards regulating the development of offshore bond business in the free trade zone, with new draft regulations under review [7][26] - Fujian Province plans to build a collaborative computing network with a target of exceeding 12 EFLOPS in public computing power by the end of 2027, leading to significant market activity in related stocks [9][27] - Institutions are optimistic about the cross-year market, with 197 stocks included in the December "golden stock" list by brokerages [10][28] Group 4 - The brain-computer interface industry is set to accelerate with multiple conferences scheduled, including a large-scale competition and investment cooperation forum [11][29] - The charging infrastructure sector is witnessing rapid development, with a total of 18.645 million charging facilities in China as of October, marking a 54% year-on-year increase [12][30] - The new national standard for electric bicycles has been implemented, prohibiting the sale of vehicles that do not meet the updated requirements, creating new growth opportunities in the industry [13][31] Group 5 - Public fund institutions have increased their research activities, focusing on hard technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, with over 4200 company visits in November [14][32] - Offshore wind power is transitioning from demonstration to large-scale development, supported by increasing policy backing [15][33] - The scope of real estate investment trusts (REITs) has expanded to include urban renewal facilities, marking a significant milestone in the infrastructure sector [16][34][35] Group 6 - Eight real estate companies reported total sales exceeding 100 billion yuan in the first eleven months, with a notable increase in new housing supply and a positive market outlook [17][36][18]

Core Insights - The roundtable discussion at the "2025 Huaxia Health Industry Development and Rehabilitation Service Conference" focused on the commercialization of brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) in mental rehabilitation treatment, exploring the transition from individual cases to clinical applications [1] Group 1: Industry Perspectives - Experts and executives from various companies, including Airdoc, Meihao Medical, Ruiyi Biotechnology, and Yaoxin Medical, shared insights on the commercial prospects of BCIs [1] - The discussion emphasized the potential of BCIs to create a trillion-dollar market, raising questions about who will finance this commercialization [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Medical Insurance negotiation has concluded, with the new commercial insurance innovative drug directory set to be implemented on January 1, 2026, featuring 24 out of 121 submitted innovative drugs [3][4]. - The launch of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory marks a significant milestone for China's innovative drug sector, accelerating clinical applications and laying a solid policy foundation for future national plans [3][4]. - The new round of major national projects aims to establish China as a global center for new drug creation and a hub for the biopharmaceutical industry by 2035 [4]. Industry Trends - 2025 is anticipated to be a landmark year for China's innovative drugs, with 50 innovative drugs approved in the first three quarters alone, surpassing the total for 2024 [5]. - Major licensing deals have been signed, including a $1.97 billion agreement between Heng Rui Medicine and Merck, and a $12.5 billion deal with GlaxoSmithKline [5]. - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have seen a surge in innovative drug listings and stock price increases, setting new records [5]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" explicitly supports innovative drugs and medical devices, indicating a strong governmental push for the sector [5]. - The upcoming implementation of stricter regulations for traditional Chinese medicine is expected to drive high-quality development and improve the supply chain [13]. Market Dynamics - The medical device sector has not experienced the anticipated market performance despite new policies aimed at supporting high-end medical devices [11][14]. - The medical device market is under pressure due to factors such as inventory levels and centralized procurement policies, which have affected performance [11][14]. Future Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to remain at the forefront globally for the next 5-10 years, driven by strong R&D capabilities and competitive advantages [7][20]. - Emerging technologies, such as non-invasive brain-computer interfaces, are nearing commercialization, with significant developments expected in 2026 [18][19]. - High-value consumables are projected to see accelerated growth in 2026, benefiting from easing centralized procurement policies [16][17]. Investment Considerations - For innovative drug companies, key indicators to monitor include R&D progress, clinical data, and licensing agreements, which reflect global competitiveness [21][22]. - In the medical device sector, performance metrics such as sales revenue and procurement data will be crucial for assessing future growth potential [22].

Macro Overview - The article emphasizes the shift from β factors to α factors in understanding China's export dynamics, particularly in the context of global geopolitical tensions and technological transformations [2][3] - The correlation between global PMI and China's export growth has been disrupted since 2023 due to internal structural adjustments and intensified global trade frictions [2] 2026 Export Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that global economic weakness will be limited, with the IMF predicting a rebound in global GDP growth compared to 2025, leading to an expected export growth rate of 1-3% for China [3] New Trade Patterns - The formation of new trade patterns is attributed to tariff shocks and the restructuring of geopolitical relationships, particularly the complex trade dynamics between China and the U.S. [7] - The article notes that while transshipment trade has increased, it has not fully compensated for the decline in direct trade with the U.S., leading to a focus on non-U.S. markets as new opportunities [7] Export Performance by Sector - Machinery and electrical equipment exports are highlighted as strong performers, indicating sustained global demand for Chinese capital goods amid geopolitical risks [7] - The article discusses the phenomenon of order front-loading, which has led to a temporary overextension in export orders, particularly to the U.S. and transshipment markets [7] Regulatory and Tariff Considerations - The impact of increased regulatory scrutiny on transshipment, particularly for low-value or non-processed goods, is noted, with potential tariffs leading to an estimated 1.3% decline in total Chinese exports [7] - The likelihood of significant new tariffs is considered low due to mutual countermeasures between China and the U.S. and the completion of most global tariff negotiations [7] Currency and Pricing Dynamics - The appreciation of the Chinese currency is expected to reduce the incremental value of exports priced in foreign currencies, although the overall export volume may remain stable [7] Real Estate Investment Trends - Real estate investment in China has seen a significant decline, with a cumulative year-on-year drop of 13.9% in the first nine months, raising concerns about how to mitigate this downturn [8] - Despite pressures, there are signs of stabilization in new construction and sales metrics, although the overall investment environment remains challenging [8][9] Brain-Computer Interface Market - The brain-computer interface (BCI) market is at a critical juncture with significant technological breakthroughs and clinical validations expected to drive commercialization [12][13] - Government policies are actively supporting the development of the BCI industry, with a focus on enhancing innovation capabilities and establishing a reliable industry framework by 2030 [13] - Investment activity in the BCI sector has surged, with over 1000 disclosed transactions and nearly 400 companies receiving funding, indicating strong market potential [14]