黄金方面：今年黄金已上涨超44%，各国央行持续增购黄金，欧洲央行的调查数据显示，全球央行黄金 储备总量达到3.6万吨。近三年来，全球央行每年增持黄金超过1000吨，是过去十年平均水平的两倍。 本周美联储官员密集发表讲话，芝加哥联储主席格尔斯比表示，美国经济面临经济增长放缓和劳动力市 场疲软的双重压力，在降息的问题上需要保持谨慎。利率可以逐步的下调，但通胀仍高于目标，不宜激 进地降息。 来源：智昇财论 智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，近日多位美联储官员发表讲话，一部分的表述鹰派，对通胀表示担 忧，降息持谨慎态度；另一部分则呼吁降息，美联储内部分歧加大。 技术面：黄金周线月线多头趋势，不断刷新历史高点。小时图来看，黄金昨日（9月23日）晚间开始回 落，在3755美元一线获得支撑，日内继续上涨的概率大，日内上方可以先看向高点3790美元一线。 原油方面：近期，欧洲正在加大对俄罗斯能源出口的制裁，包括出口价格的下调以及通过法案提前一年 结束购买俄罗斯能源。同时，特朗普敦促欧洲尽快地停止购买俄罗斯能源，并试图切断其主要资金来 源，对印度的采购行为征收50%的关税。 今天凌晨，美国至9月19日当周API原油库存数据，录得 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, particularly focusing on the implications of potential interest rate cuts on various asset classes and markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Slowdown**: Recent macroeconomic data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. economic momentum, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising for three consecutive months, suggesting a cooling labor market [7][15][20]. 2. **Inflation Trends**: July's inflation data showed a moderate increase, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%. Core CPI slightly exceeded expectations at 3.1%, but overall inflation pressures remain manageable [15][20]. 3. **Market Expectations for Rate Cuts**: The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has strengthened, with a 100% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference reinforced this dovish outlook [7][20][21]. 4. **Historical Rate Cut Cycles**: The report reviews seven historical rate cut cycles since 1989, highlighting differences in driving factors and asset performance during these periods. The cycles are categorized into preventive and recessionary cuts [8][26][29]. 5. **Asset Allocation Strategies**: - **Equities**: A risk-on environment is anticipated, with developed markets expected to perform better than emerging markets. Specific sectors such as technology, real estate, and finance in A-shares, as well as real estate, finance, and consumer discretionary in Hong Kong stocks, are projected to outperform [9][10]. - **Bonds**: U.S. Treasuries are seen as ideal during recessionary cuts but less favorable in preventive cuts [9]. - **Currency**: The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken during preventive cut cycles [9]. - **Gold**: Historically, gold performs well during preventive cut cycles due to its inflation-hedging and safe-haven properties [9]. 6. **Focus on Upcoming Rate Cut**: The upcoming rate cut on September 18, 2024, is expected to initiate a new cycle of equity market expansion, particularly benefiting Hong Kong and A-shares, with a focus on technology, finance, and real estate sectors [10][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Diverse Reactions to Monetary Policy**: Different asset classes react variably to monetary policy changes, reflecting regional economic fundamentals and capital flows [33][39]. 2. **Performance of Risk Assets**: Historical data shows that during previous rate cut cycles, certain markets like Hong Kong and gold have outperformed others, indicating the importance of strategic asset allocation [33][39][52]. 3. **Sector-Specific Insights**: In the context of the 2001-2003 rate cut cycle, sectors such as utilities and energy in A-shares showed resilience, while healthcare and technology in Hong Kong exhibited significant gains [55]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of U.S. monetary policy on various asset classes and market sectors.

黄金方面： 隔夜黄金小周期趋势改变，黄金冲破关键压力位，未来有进一步走高的可能，从大周期来看，黄金仍是处于无趋势状态，短线 方向变化较快，投资者在仓位和风控上要有所调整。 据美国两党政策智库"负责任联邦预算委员会"（CRFB）最新预测，从2026财年到2035财年，美国的累计赤字将达到22.7万亿美 元，而国会预算办公室1月份的预测为21.8万亿美元。赤字扩大主要是因为减税法案和特朗普的关税政策，仅仅减税法案就可能 使得美国赤字增加4.6万亿美元。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，美国赤字扩大将直接导致美国债务扩大，特朗普在节流上的尝试已经宣告失败，开 源上也无太大起色，所以大概率会转化成债务，据估算，美国赤字在未来十年将稳步上升，到2035年将达到2.6万亿美元，占 GDP的5.9%。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，价格站上长期均线。1小时周期价格重新进入前期成交密集区，短线趋势改变，日内大概率震荡上 行，可关注下方3333美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 隔夜油价小幅反弹，但整体走势仍难言乐观。隔夜美国EIA原油库存有喜有忧，库存出现近期最大幅度的下降，但后期对油价的 支撑作用可能有限，产量和出口量连续上升 ...

Gold Market - Federal Reserve officials Goolsbee and Bostic indicated that if inflation is moving towards the 2% target, there is a possibility of an early rate cut, but conservative comments have limited gold price increases [1] - The market is currently awaiting developments from the upcoming US-Russia talks, with expectations of "low-key commitments and over-delivery" [1] - Technical analysis shows a small upward movement in gold prices, with support at $3325 and resistance at $3375 [1] Oil Market - IEA's monthly report predicts a record oversupply of global oil in the coming year, with refinery runs nearing historical highs at 85.6 million barrels per day [2] - The forecast for global oil supply growth has been revised upwards for both 2025 and 2026, indicating a continued expansion in production [2] - Political developments from the US-Russia summit could lead to significant price volatility, with potential for lower oil prices if constructive agreements are reached [2] - Technical analysis indicates a downward trend in oil prices, with resistance at $63.40 and support at $61.20 [2] US Dollar Index - President Trump is considering 3-4 candidates to succeed Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, while Powell defends the Fed's rate policy [3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that current interest rates are too restrictive and advocates for a series of rate cuts, starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September [3] - Technical analysis shows the dollar index trading between 97 and 100, with support at 97.50 and resistance at 98.10 [3] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index faced resistance at the 24000 level, with a small upward movement noted [4] - Technical analysis indicates an upward trend, with prices above the 60/120 day moving averages, and a focus on a potential pullback to around 23620 [4] Copper Market - The price range for copper has expanded, with resistance at $4.50 leading to a downward movement [6] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend, suggesting short positions with a target near $4.30 [6] Market Overview - The Trump administration is considering candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair [7] - Statements from Trump regarding potential consequences for Russia if conflicts do not cease [7] - Becerra's comments on the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September and the need for lower interest rates [7] - Russia's extension of oil production cuts into 2025 [7] - IEA's forecast of a record oversupply in global oil for the next year [7]