另外，美联储的独立性将遭遇特朗普的严重挑战，美元的信用将大打折扣，美元后续贬值仍将是大概率事件。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前驱动黄金牛市的因素并没有改变，牛市依旧可期。不过短期边际偏空的影响因 素并没有完全消除，金价短期仍存回调风险。 技术面：日线上，隔夜黄金下行且收阴线，警惕金价再度回落风险。 黄金方面： 近期黄金价格暴跌导火索是特朗普任命沃什为下一任美联储主席，不过这只是表面原因。黄金价格大幅走弱的主要原因在于前 期非理性超涨，获利止盈需求的积累导致较小的边际扰动带来剧烈的回调压力。 从基本面来看，驱动黄金牛市的原因并没有发生改变。不管谁任美联储主席，在美国政府巨大债务面前，美联储不撒钱解决问 题就没有存在的必要，所以美联储宽松在后市依旧会是市场交易的主旋律。 4小时线上看，本轮行情回调有所企稳，短期存在进一步反弹的风险。日内关注上方4992美元一线压力情况。 原油方面： 技术面：日线上，此前行情自高位回落且收阴线，显示短期油价偏弱。从指标上看，行情仍然处于20日均线上方运行，在有效 跌破20日均线之前不宜过分看空。日内关注下方61美元一线支撑情况。 美元指数： 此前美元指数连续下跌之后最 ...

黄金方面： 近期贵金属市场仅在周一和周二出现了较为明确的趋势行情，随后市场陷入震荡，主要推手是当前市场陷入共识疲劳，年初市 场共识一直看涨，而现在市场跌幅有限，是在等待新一轮的市场变化。 虽然特朗普表示，伊朗在镇压抗议活动中的行为正在缓解，暗示可能采取观望态度。但是受到特朗普一贯政策左右改变的影 响，现在市场不敢断定，美国一定不会干预伊朗的局势，仍有变数。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，近期伊朗问题的缓解，一定程度上削弱了黄金的避险属性，金价有所回落。但是跌 幅有限，一定程度上又反映了，市场处在共识疲劳期，仍需要等待确定的答案。 技术面分析：昨日收十字线。日线级别，金价维持在4600美元附近震荡。1小时级别，价格跌破60日均线，向下试探120日均 线，市场处于弱转势阶段。今日多空分水岭在4575美元一线，关注市场在此的变化。 原油方面： 随着委内瑞拉原油改革推进，更多的原油供应进入市场。在美国介入后，北美生产商可能会急于通过整合来对冲油价的下行风 险。在当前低油价环境下，规模效应可以降低成本。2026年，全球原油仍会面临过剩压力。 地缘政治对油价的影响是阶段性的，在库存压力逐步走高的背景下，原油大概率 ...

黄金方面：今年黄金已上涨超44%，各国央行持续增购黄金，欧洲央行的调查数据显示，全球央行黄金 储备总量达到3.6万吨。近三年来，全球央行每年增持黄金超过1000吨，是过去十年平均水平的两倍。 本周美联储官员密集发表讲话，芝加哥联储主席格尔斯比表示，美国经济面临经济增长放缓和劳动力市 场疲软的双重压力，在降息的问题上需要保持谨慎。利率可以逐步的下调，但通胀仍高于目标，不宜激 进地降息。 来源：智昇财论 智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，近日多位美联储官员发表讲话，一部分的表述鹰派，对通胀表示担 忧，降息持谨慎态度；另一部分则呼吁降息，美联储内部分歧加大。 技术面：黄金周线月线多头趋势，不断刷新历史高点。小时图来看，黄金昨日（9月23日）晚间开始回 落，在3755美元一线获得支撑，日内继续上涨的概率大，日内上方可以先看向高点3790美元一线。 原油方面：近期，欧洲正在加大对俄罗斯能源出口的制裁，包括出口价格的下调以及通过法案提前一年 结束购买俄罗斯能源。同时，特朗普敦促欧洲尽快地停止购买俄罗斯能源，并试图切断其主要资金来 源，对印度的采购行为征收50%的关税。 今天凌晨，美国至9月19日当周API原油库存数据，录得 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, particularly focusing on the implications of potential interest rate cuts on various asset classes and markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Slowdown**: Recent macroeconomic data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. economic momentum, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising for three consecutive months, suggesting a cooling labor market [7][15][20]. 2. **Inflation Trends**: July's inflation data showed a moderate increase, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%. Core CPI slightly exceeded expectations at 3.1%, but overall inflation pressures remain manageable [15][20]. 3. **Market Expectations for Rate Cuts**: The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has strengthened, with a 100% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference reinforced this dovish outlook [7][20][21]. 4. **Historical Rate Cut Cycles**: The report reviews seven historical rate cut cycles since 1989, highlighting differences in driving factors and asset performance during these periods. The cycles are categorized into preventive and recessionary cuts [8][26][29]. 5. **Asset Allocation Strategies**: - **Equities**: A risk-on environment is anticipated, with developed markets expected to perform better than emerging markets. Specific sectors such as technology, real estate, and finance in A-shares, as well as real estate, finance, and consumer discretionary in Hong Kong stocks, are projected to outperform [9][10]. - **Bonds**: U.S. Treasuries are seen as ideal during recessionary cuts but less favorable in preventive cuts [9]. - **Currency**: The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken during preventive cut cycles [9]. - **Gold**: Historically, gold performs well during preventive cut cycles due to its inflation-hedging and safe-haven properties [9]. 6. **Focus on Upcoming Rate Cut**: The upcoming rate cut on September 18, 2024, is expected to initiate a new cycle of equity market expansion, particularly benefiting Hong Kong and A-shares, with a focus on technology, finance, and real estate sectors [10][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Diverse Reactions to Monetary Policy**: Different asset classes react variably to monetary policy changes, reflecting regional economic fundamentals and capital flows [33][39]. 2. **Performance of Risk Assets**: Historical data shows that during previous rate cut cycles, certain markets like Hong Kong and gold have outperformed others, indicating the importance of strategic asset allocation [33][39][52]. 3. **Sector-Specific Insights**: In the context of the 2001-2003 rate cut cycle, sectors such as utilities and energy in A-shares showed resilience, while healthcare and technology in Hong Kong exhibited significant gains [55]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of U.S. monetary policy on various asset classes and market sectors.

Gold - The overnight gold trend has changed, breaking through key resistance levels, indicating potential for further increases, although it remains in a non-trending state on a larger time frame [1] - The U.S. cumulative deficit is projected to reach $22.7 trillion from FY 2026 to FY 2035, an increase from the previous estimate of $21.8 trillion, primarily due to tax cuts and tariffs [1] - The estimated U.S. deficit is expected to rise steadily over the next decade, reaching $2.6 trillion by 2035, accounting for 5.9% of GDP [1] - Technically, gold has closed with a small bullish candle on the daily chart, indicating a potential upward trend with support around $3333 [1] Oil - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, but the overall outlook remains pessimistic due to rising production and export levels [2] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decline of 1.41%, which is the largest drop since June [2] - U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 1.3382 million barrels per day, while exports rose by 79,500 barrels to 437.2 thousand barrels per day [2] - Technically, oil has closed with a small bullish candle but shows signs of being oversold, with a potential for a mid-term rebound [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index has shown weakness, lacking sufficient momentum for both upward and downward movements [3] - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a high probability of a rate cut in September, which may further drive the dollar down [3] - The minutes revealed that nearly all participants at the July meeting agreed on maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25% to 4.50% range, with inflation pressures remaining a concern [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating the start of a medium-term adjustment [5] - The hourly chart shows lower highs and a horizontal low, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend [5] Copper - Copper has shown a series of small bearish candles, indicating a possible adjustment to previous declines, with a significant chance of forming a downward ABC pattern [6] - The hourly chart indicates resistance at key pressure levels, with a high likelihood of new lows [6] Market Overview - U.S. EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels for the week ending August 15, marking the largest decline since June 13 [7] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes were slightly hawkish, but some officials expressed openness to a rate cut in September [8] - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, surpassing expectations and previous values, indicating a return above the growth threshold [8]

Gold Market - Federal Reserve officials Goolsbee and Bostic indicated that if inflation is moving towards the 2% target, there is a possibility of an early rate cut, but conservative comments have limited gold price increases [1] - The market is currently awaiting developments from the upcoming US-Russia talks, with expectations of "low-key commitments and over-delivery" [1] - Technical analysis shows a small upward movement in gold prices, with support at $3325 and resistance at $3375 [1] Oil Market - IEA's monthly report predicts a record oversupply of global oil in the coming year, with refinery runs nearing historical highs at 85.6 million barrels per day [2] - The forecast for global oil supply growth has been revised upwards for both 2025 and 2026, indicating a continued expansion in production [2] - Political developments from the US-Russia summit could lead to significant price volatility, with potential for lower oil prices if constructive agreements are reached [2] - Technical analysis indicates a downward trend in oil prices, with resistance at $63.40 and support at $61.20 [2] US Dollar Index - President Trump is considering 3-4 candidates to succeed Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, while Powell defends the Fed's rate policy [3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that current interest rates are too restrictive and advocates for a series of rate cuts, starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September [3] - Technical analysis shows the dollar index trading between 97 and 100, with support at 97.50 and resistance at 98.10 [3] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index faced resistance at the 24000 level, with a small upward movement noted [4] - Technical analysis indicates an upward trend, with prices above the 60/120 day moving averages, and a focus on a potential pullback to around 23620 [4] Copper Market - The price range for copper has expanded, with resistance at $4.50 leading to a downward movement [6] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend, suggesting short positions with a target near $4.30 [6] Market Overview - The Trump administration is considering candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair [7] - Statements from Trump regarding potential consequences for Russia if conflicts do not cease [7] - Becerra's comments on the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September and the need for lower interest rates [7] - Russia's extension of oil production cuts into 2025 [7] - IEA's forecast of a record oversupply in global oil for the next year [7]