编者按：日前召开的中央经济工作会议，明确了明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，部署了明年经济 工作"八个坚持"的重点任务，抓住关键、纲举目张。为深入学习贯彻会议精神，本报即日起推出"落实 会议部署 问答中国经济"系列述评，围绕发展目标设定、赤字规模安排、推动投资企稳等10个方面热点 问题展开讨论，敬请关注。 财政政策作为宏观调控的主要手段，通过预算、政府债券、税收等工具组合，发挥扩大总需求和定向调 结构的双重优势，实现经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长。在中央经济工作会议提出"保持必要的财政 赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"的总体要求后，市场对明年财政赤字率的设定高度关注。 财政赤字是衡量全年财政政策力度和财政风险水平的重要指标，直接关系到年内政府支出规模。目前， 市场机构与业内人士对财政赤字率的预期较为一致，预计明年赤字率不低于今年水平，即不低于4%。 该赤字率水平既能延续财政扩张态势，又避免了债务风险过快累积。 财政赤字率是社会各界观察宏观政策力度的风向标，从稳定市场预期角度看，"十五五"开局之年的财政 赤字率水平不宜低于上年。2025年，财政政策取向转为"更加积极"，赤字率大幅提升1个百分点至4%， 为近年最高水 ...

日本政府经济财政谘问会议(CEFP)的民间部门成员周四表示，即使日本加大支出以重振经济增长，也 必须采取措施维持市场对其财政的信任。民间部门成员称，日本第三季经济出现萎缩，而通胀率仍高达 3%左右，主要原因是食品价格上涨。"因此，政府必须采取必要和充分的财政措施，对危机管理和增长 领域进行投资，"这些成员在提交给小组的一份提案中说。该提案指出，在此过程中，"最重要的是确保 日本财政的可持续性和市场对其财政的信任"，例如削减现有浪费性支出。该提案称，除了稳定降低日 本债务与国内生产总值（GDP）的比率，日本还必须采取各种措施来指导财政政策，并"始终关注利 率、汇率和股市情势"。由于市场预期首相高市早苗的巨额支出计划将导致更多的债务发行和长期通 胀，日本国债价格和日元汇率近期下跌。 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance has outlined six major deployments for future fiscal work, emphasizing the importance of fiscal policy execution and its impact on citizens and businesses [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The report highlights an increase in investment in the livelihood sector, with a nationwide increase of 2% in basic pension levels for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [1] - Central government has allocated 1.1 trillion yuan in subsidies to support timely and full payment of basic pension benefits [1] Group 2: Management of Hidden Debt - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debt, including a prohibition on government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [2] - A lifelong accountability system for government borrowing has been established, along with a mechanism for tracing debt issues, ensuring that any new hidden debt is identified and addressed promptly [2] Group 3: Tax Reform Initiatives - The report mentions ongoing tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [3] - Specific details on which tax items will be shifted to the wholesale and retail stages and how revenue will be distributed between central and local governments are still under observation [3] Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report outlines six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and enhancement of social welfare [3] - Emphasis is placed on strengthening services for the elderly and children, providing subsidies for elderly care, and promoting free preschool education [3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue implementing a comprehensive debt reduction policy while monitoring and addressing new hidden debt behaviors [3]

Group 1 - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy this year to support economic and social development [1][2] - By the end of March, the central government completed budget approvals for central departments, ensuring timely fund allocation [1] - In the first half of the year, the central government allocated 9.29 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget [1] Group 2 - A total of 2.6 trillion yuan in new local government bonds was issued in the first half of the year to support major projects [1] - The government allocated 6.583 billion yuan in special long-term bond funds to support key projects and initiatives [1] - The government plans to allocate 3 trillion yuan in special long-term bond funds to stimulate consumption, including a program for replacing old consumer goods [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is showing resilience in the first half of 2025, supported by a more proactive fiscal policy that has been emphasized in response to changing international trade conditions [2][3]. Fiscal Policy Overview - Since the 2008 financial crisis, China has maintained an active fiscal policy for 17 consecutive years, utilizing increased spending, tax reductions, and government bond issuance to stimulate demand and promote economic recovery [2][4]. - This year, the government has introduced a "more proactive fiscal policy," with a fiscal deficit target set at around 4% and a total new government debt scale reaching 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [2][4]. Economic Support Factors - Key drivers of China's economic stability include consumer demand driven by "old-for-new" consumption, high manufacturing investment, robust infrastructure investment, and resilient export performance [3][4]. - Fiscal spending in the first five months of 2025 reached 14.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.6%, while fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by 3.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of about 46.5% [4][5]. Social Spending and Debt Issuance - Social security, education, and healthcare accounted for 41.1% of total national spending in the first five months, up 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [5]. - The issuance of government bonds accelerated, with approximately 7.9 trillion yuan in national bonds and 5.5 trillion yuan in local government bonds issued in the first half of the year [5][6]. Future Fiscal Policy Directions - Looking ahead, the fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a focus on stabilizing employment, supporting enterprises, and maintaining market expectations [7][8]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize existing policies effectively while also introducing new incremental reserve policies as needed, particularly in response to external economic pressures [9]. Recommendations for Fiscal Adjustments - Experts suggest dynamically adjusting budgets to expand fiscal spending to counteract potential declines in external demand due to trade tensions, and to support sectors affected by economic challenges [9]. - There is a call for increased issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds to enhance infrastructure investment and support key areas such as technology innovation and social security [9].