炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|裘翔 高玉森 陈泽平 张铭楷 陈峰 刘春彤 我们判断本轮ETF集中赎回潮基本结束，权重股迎来修复窗口；大周期维度下的风格切换正在发生，从 小盘切大盘，从题材切质量；沃什被提名美联储主席代表了"美国版脱虚向实"的政策意愿，无论是否能 成功践行理念，对全球风险资产的风格都会产生巨大影响。站在A股视角，从资源热到周期热，涨价线 索的全面演绎可能贯穿一季度。周期板块的底层共性是利润率修复空间大，背后是中国的政策从扩大规 模逐步向提质增效的转变。配置的底层思路还是应围绕中国具备竞争优势的行业在全球定价权的重估， 化工、有色、电力设备、新能源的底仓配置思路依然成立，但对投机属性越发明显的贵金属板块要开始 保持警惕；消费和地产链的躁动修复理应发生在春季，这与制造、科技并不对立。 ETF集中赎回潮基本结束 权重股迎来修复窗口 沪深300ETF本周累计净赎回2443亿元，与前一周净赎回总额2374亿元相当，不过本周五净赎回额仅为 73亿元，为1月15日以来单日净赎回额首次回落至300亿元以下。1月截至29日，全市场宽基类ETF净赎 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that the recent performance of technology stocks, particularly in the ChiNext index, indicates a potential shift in market dynamics, moving away from precious metals and resource stocks [1][3] - The technology sector's recent surge is characterized as either a rotation or an offensive move, with the CPU sector showing strong performance after a prolonged adjustment period, indicating investor confidence [2][3] - The adjustment in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is viewed as a first-time correction, with expectations that the cycle of rotation among various resource sectors is not yet over [3] Group 2 - The rise in technology stocks, especially in AI applications, would signify a market offensive, but the current gains are primarily attributed to the CPU sector, which has been consolidating at high levels [2] - The market's rotation is evident as funds shift from declining resource stocks to lower-valued sectors, indicating a broader strategy of capital reallocation [1][2] - The ongoing strength in the CPU sector suggests a complex investment landscape, where long-term expectations are clear, but short-term volatility remains a concern [2]

整个市场呢还是比较疲软，指数呢是探底回升，感觉还很强势，但有3400多家个股在下跌，尤其是这个 有色板块，他还搞了一个冲高回落，不少的兄弟在这个方向都比较看好，那接接下来这个方向该怎么 办？和讯投顾余兴栋分析，其实机构比较简单，拿着死扛等一等就行，但咱们散户朋友不一样，都想着 要赚一点快钱，那这个市场一旦没了方向，咱们就容易抓瞎，今儿个我把这些事情搬开揉。所以跟大家 详细的讲一讲，在指数不创新高的情况下，咱们的手上个股该怎么来应对它？我先跟大家说一个结论， 就说4200点呢在春节前很难突破的这个位置其实非常的明显，就说上方他不希望我们的指数涨的太猛， 涨的太快，尤其是不希望现有的存款搬家的资金能一窝火的杀入到股市当中来，那样我们的整个市场会 陷入癫狂的状态。其实我本人呢也不希望这样的情况出现，我们呢还是希望有一个慢牛的行情，也就是 说跟着公司的业绩慢慢的成长，这样的行情呢他走的更远，那种猛涨猛跌的行情，呢咱们散户一般是拿 不住的，那指数不往上冲，核心操作思路其实只有一个，就是说看我们手上的标的啊它的质地有没有改 变，是不是当前能扛住指数调整的一些方向，那现在哪些方向才是主线板块？如果不是这些方向，我们 该怎么 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a cooling trend, which can occur through either active or passive means, with the current situation reflecting a relatively rational market response to regulatory signals [1] - The China Securities 1000 ETF played a leading role in the market today, influencing the overall market trend alongside other major ETFs [1] - Structural differences in the market are notable, with major state-owned enterprises and financial stocks maintaining positive performance, while broad-based ETFs exerted downward pressure on speculative stocks [1] Group 2 - Significant capital outflows were observed in sectors such as CPU-related stocks and the photovoltaic sector, with over 7 billion yuan flowing out of the latter [2] - In contrast, sectors related to real estate, such as building materials and construction, showed relative stability, indicating a shift of funds towards undervalued sectors [2] - The regulatory goal is to suppress excessive speculation in individual stocks by gradually adjusting major indices to influence market sentiment [2] Group 3 - The market indices showed a clear cooling trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.79% [3] - The total trading volume reached 2.77 trillion yuan, with a net outflow of nearly 100 billion yuan, reflecting the core objective of regulatory cooling [3] - The current adjustment aims to maintain a stable market outlook before the Spring Festival while avoiding excessive market bubbles [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.11% to close at 3824.81 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.51% to 12914.67 points, and the ChiNext Index dropping by 2.10% to 3071.76 points [2][3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2][3] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new closing low of 3824 points, marking the lowest point in the current adjustment phase [3] - A total of 888 stocks rose while 4294 stocks fell, indicating a significant imbalance in market performance [3] - The median decline for all stocks was approximately 1.8%, with 46 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 36 stocks hitting the limit down [3] Sector Analysis - The consumer sector showed relative resilience, with sectors such as liquor, commercial retail, tourism, food and beverage, and beauty services experiencing smaller declines [4] - Real estate services, automotive services, and banking and securities sectors also demonstrated limited declines despite not closing in the green [4] Capital Flow - Major capital outflows were concentrated in the technology sector, particularly in CPU, communication equipment, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [5] - The new energy and non-ferrous metals sectors also faced adjustments today [5] External Influences - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant downturn, impacting the A-share market, particularly in technology stocks [5][6] - Concerns over the AI bubble have intensified, with a recent storm causing delays in data center construction, leading to a reevaluation of valuations for related operators [6] - The tightening liquidity in the market and the upcoming interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan on December 19 are expected to have a pronounced effect on the Hong Kong stock market, which could further influence A-share market expectations [6]

12月10日，和讯投顾陆润凯表示，就在今晚，美联储今年最后一次利率决议即将来临，这不仅关乎降不 降息、降多少的问题，更有一件至关重要的事。你看近期市场反复多变，就像今天，若你盯了一整天 盘，会发现盘中几十个赛道反复轮动，最终市场又回到开盘位置，全天下来估计让人脑袋发懵。核心在 于当下市场仍处于企稳阶段，大资金正忙着调仓换股、进行切换，从近期银行和CPU表现分化巨大就能 看出端倪。所以场内风格偏向波段操作，为的是过渡，缺乏太好持续性。主力每次行动节点，更多是在 类似周五保险券商受消息面催化时，或是在市场冰点时进场拿筹码。确切地说，今晚至明天凌晨，是资 金下一个布局节点。比如正常预期是降息25个基点，市场不会有太大反应，但若一下超过50个基点，情 况就不一样了。当然，这都不是最关键的，关键在于宣布利率决议后的发言，若对方透露出明年可持续 降息的预期，对于大资金而言就可提前布局，这比降息50个基点更靠谱。如此一来，A股有望摆脱当下 反复震荡的态势，提前开启行情，12月份作为转折点也将得到确认。不过，我们切勿盲目乐观，希望越 大失望越大，只要做好交易计划，跟着策略走就行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longxin Zhongke has been awarded the "ESG Technology Leading Golden Bull Award" for its solid practices and innovative exploration in the ESG field, highlighting its commitment to sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: ESG Recognition and Awards - The "Golden Bull Award" series is an annual evaluation activity organized by China Securities Journal, focusing on recognizing outstanding practitioners in the ESG field [1]. - The third "Guoxin Cup · ESG Golden Bull Award" follows principles of openness, fairness, and justice, utilizing a rigorous and transparent evaluation system [1]. Group 2: Company Achievements and Innovations - Longxin Zhongke is the only domestic CPU company that builds an open information technology system independent of the X86 and ARM architectures, focusing on self-developed instruction systems [1][2]. - The company has released the Longxin 3C6000 series server processors and the Longxin 2K3000/3B6000M chips, showcasing high performance, reliability, and security [2]. - Longxin has developed key core technologies in general processors, graphics processors, AI processors, and their foundational software design over 20 years [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Longxin Zhongke actively responds to carbon neutrality goals by implementing energy-saving measures and optimizing office processes to reduce resource consumption [3]. - The company has established a three-tier management structure for ESG, integrating sustainable development concepts into its operations [2].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Overview - The global stock market experienced adjustments, with U.S. Treasury yields declining and commodity prices generally falling during the week of November 21, 2025 [6][7] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains uncertain, influenced by mixed signals from the labor market and geopolitical tensions [7][8] - The domestic equity market showed a decline across all sectors, with financials outperforming others, while the average daily trading volume decreased [6][7] Group 2: Shengde Xintai (300881) Company Analysis - Shengde Xintai operates a dual business model focusing on high-end pipes and automotive components, benefiting from both traditional and renewable energy sectors [9][10] - The company reported significant revenue growth, with a projected increase of 64.1% in 2023 and 34.4% in 2024, and a third-quarter revenue of 2.325 billion yuan in 2025 [10][11] - The firm maintains a strong market position in high-end boiler pipes and is expanding its presence in the automotive lightweight sector through acquisitions [9][10] Group 3: Loongson Technology (688047) Company Analysis - Loongson Technology is the only domestic CPU manufacturer building an independent information technology ecosystem based on its own instruction set, distinct from x86 and ARM architectures [12][13] - The company has seen a rise in market share in the domestic "Xinchuang" (information technology innovation) sector, with a focus on enhancing product cost-performance ratios [13][14] - The demand for AI servers and AIPC is expected to drive CPU demand upward, with a projected 24.3% growth in global AI server shipments in 2025 [14][15] Group 4: Domestic Robotics Industry - The industrial robotics sector in China saw a production increase of 29.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total production of 2024 [20][21] - Domestic brands have gained market share over foreign brands, with a 54.9% increase in exports of industrial robots [20][21] - Key components such as controllers and servo systems have seen significant technological advancements, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic manufacturers [21][22] Group 5: Capital Market Focus on Mergers - The merger between CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities is a strategic move to consolidate resources and enhance competitiveness in the financial services sector [24][25] - Following the merger, the combined total assets are expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, positioning the new entity as the fourth largest in the industry [25][26] - The integration aims to leverage regional strengths and expand service offerings, particularly in asset management and investment banking [26][27] Group 6: U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September 2025 showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [28][29] - The job growth was primarily driven by the education and health sectors, which are characterized by high part-time employment rates [29][30] - The data suggests a mixed labor market, with concerns about rising unemployment overshadowing the positive job creation figures [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The market index has dropped below 3850, indicating a potential entry point for investors, but caution is advised as the bottom is often reached in despair rather than optimism [1] Market Analysis - The index opened 30 points lower and closed down 96 points, with some rebound observed in the afternoon, particularly in low-positioned technology stocks related to AI applications and robotics [1] - There is a belief among some investors that the decline has ended, leading to potential buying activity, but historical patterns suggest that true bottoms occur when despair is prevalent [1] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to wait for a genuine bottom before making significant investments, as the rebound is expected to be led by core technology sectors rather than low-positioned stocks [1] - The unclear interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve and the lack of signs of recovery in the U.S. stock market suggest that a bottom is not easily reached [1] Market Sentiment - The sentiment among retail investors is likely to shift towards despair as losses mount, which historically signals the actual market bottom [1] - The current market is viewed as being in a mid-term adjustment phase, with expectations of a "golden pit" not far off [1]

Core Insights - The automotive computer industry is evolving towards high integration, strong computing power, and wide-area communication, with automotive computers becoming the core device for intelligent transportation and vehicle control [1][13] - The market size of China's automotive computer industry is projected to grow from 9.248 billion yuan in 2018 to 14.368 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.62% [1][14] - The increasing consumer demand for automotive intelligence and comfort, particularly among younger demographics, is driving the adoption of automotive computers [1][13] Industry Overview - Automotive computers are specialized products designed for the unique operating environment of vehicles, featuring functions such as multimedia entertainment, GPS navigation, and fault diagnosis [3][9] - The industry has transitioned from simple electronic control units (ECUs) to integrated systems that serve as the "central nervous system" of vehicles, enabling advanced functionalities like automated driving and personalized services [7][18] Market Dynamics - The automotive computer market is supported by advancements in artificial intelligence, 5G communication, and high-performance chips, which enhance functionality and performance [1][13] - The automotive industry in China is experiencing a resurgence, with production and sales surpassing 30 million units in 2023, marking a new growth cycle for the automotive computer sector [11][12] Industry Chain - The automotive computer industry chain includes upstream hardware (motherboards, processors, memory, etc.) and software (operating systems, applications), midstream manufacturing, and downstream sales and service channels [9][10] Competitive Landscape - The market has attracted numerous domestic and international companies, including notable players like Haiguang Information, Lanke Technology, and BYD, which are enhancing their competitiveness through continuous innovation [2][14] Future Trends - The trend towards smart automotive computers will involve deeper integration of AI technologies, enhancing real-time data processing and user interaction capabilities [18] - Safety enhancements will be critical, with a focus on hardware and software security measures to protect against complex cyber threats [19] - Customization in design will become more pronounced, allowing automotive companies to tailor computing platforms to their specific market needs and vehicle functionalities [20][21]