心灰意冷 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌1.11%，收报3824.81点；深证成指跌 1.51%，收报12914.67点；创业板指跌2.10%，收报3071.76点。 沪深两市成交额17242 亿，较昨日缩量493亿。 老水看盘 上证 指数创下收盘价新低，收于 3824 点，这是本轮行情调整以来的最低收盘点位。 水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 上证指数 今天 下跌 1.1% ，深成指下跌 1.51% ，收于 12914 点。 今天 上涨个股数量较 为吉利，达 888 家，而下跌个股多达 4294 家，数字背后的市场信号值得关注。成交量继续 萎缩至 1.72 万亿，主力资金净流出 829 亿。 今天 所有个股中位数下跌约 1.8% ，涨停 46 家，跌停 36 家。涨停数量不算多，但跌停数 量为近期最多。不过相较于午盘收盘，数据略有好转：午盘时上证指数下跌 1.22% ，深成指 下跌 1.88% ，午后指数有所回升，但个股回升力度有限，中位数基本未出现明显回升 —— 午盘时中位数跌幅为 1.74% ，午后个股反而略有回落。 午后指数能够回升，尤其是深成指一度回升幅度接近 1% ，主 ...

12月10日，和讯投顾陆润凯表示，就在今晚，美联储今年最后一次利率决议即将来临，这不仅关乎降不 降息、降多少的问题，更有一件至关重要的事。你看近期市场反复多变，就像今天，若你盯了一整天 盘，会发现盘中几十个赛道反复轮动，最终市场又回到开盘位置，全天下来估计让人脑袋发懵。核心在 于当下市场仍处于企稳阶段，大资金正忙着调仓换股、进行切换，从近期银行和CPU表现分化巨大就能 看出端倪。所以场内风格偏向波段操作，为的是过渡，缺乏太好持续性。主力每次行动节点，更多是在 类似周五保险券商受消息面催化时，或是在市场冰点时进场拿筹码。确切地说，今晚至明天凌晨，是资 金下一个布局节点。比如正常预期是降息25个基点，市场不会有太大反应，但若一下超过50个基点，情 况就不一样了。当然，这都不是最关键的，关键在于宣布利率决议后的发言，若对方透露出明年可持续 降息的预期，对于大资金而言就可提前布局，这比降息50个基点更靠谱。如此一来，A股有望摆脱当下 反复震荡的态势，提前开启行情，12月份作为转折点也将得到确认。不过，我们切勿盲目乐观，希望越 大失望越大，只要做好交易计划，跟着策略走就行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longxin Zhongke has been awarded the "ESG Technology Leading Golden Bull Award" for its solid practices and innovative exploration in the ESG field, highlighting its commitment to sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: ESG Recognition and Awards - The "Golden Bull Award" series is an annual evaluation activity organized by China Securities Journal, focusing on recognizing outstanding practitioners in the ESG field [1]. - The third "Guoxin Cup · ESG Golden Bull Award" follows principles of openness, fairness, and justice, utilizing a rigorous and transparent evaluation system [1]. Group 2: Company Achievements and Innovations - Longxin Zhongke is the only domestic CPU company that builds an open information technology system independent of the X86 and ARM architectures, focusing on self-developed instruction systems [1][2]. - The company has released the Longxin 3C6000 series server processors and the Longxin 2K3000/3B6000M chips, showcasing high performance, reliability, and security [2]. - Longxin has developed key core technologies in general processors, graphics processors, AI processors, and their foundational software design over 20 years [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Longxin Zhongke actively responds to carbon neutrality goals by implementing energy-saving measures and optimizing office processes to reduce resource consumption [3]. - The company has established a three-tier management structure for ESG, integrating sustainable development concepts into its operations [2].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Overview - The global stock market experienced adjustments, with U.S. Treasury yields declining and commodity prices generally falling during the week of November 21, 2025 [6][7] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains uncertain, influenced by mixed signals from the labor market and geopolitical tensions [7][8] - The domestic equity market showed a decline across all sectors, with financials outperforming others, while the average daily trading volume decreased [6][7] Group 2: Shengde Xintai (300881) Company Analysis - Shengde Xintai operates a dual business model focusing on high-end pipes and automotive components, benefiting from both traditional and renewable energy sectors [9][10] - The company reported significant revenue growth, with a projected increase of 64.1% in 2023 and 34.4% in 2024, and a third-quarter revenue of 2.325 billion yuan in 2025 [10][11] - The firm maintains a strong market position in high-end boiler pipes and is expanding its presence in the automotive lightweight sector through acquisitions [9][10] Group 3: Loongson Technology (688047) Company Analysis - Loongson Technology is the only domestic CPU manufacturer building an independent information technology ecosystem based on its own instruction set, distinct from x86 and ARM architectures [12][13] - The company has seen a rise in market share in the domestic "Xinchuang" (information technology innovation) sector, with a focus on enhancing product cost-performance ratios [13][14] - The demand for AI servers and AIPC is expected to drive CPU demand upward, with a projected 24.3% growth in global AI server shipments in 2025 [14][15] Group 4: Domestic Robotics Industry - The industrial robotics sector in China saw a production increase of 29.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total production of 2024 [20][21] - Domestic brands have gained market share over foreign brands, with a 54.9% increase in exports of industrial robots [20][21] - Key components such as controllers and servo systems have seen significant technological advancements, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic manufacturers [21][22] Group 5: Capital Market Focus on Mergers - The merger between CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities is a strategic move to consolidate resources and enhance competitiveness in the financial services sector [24][25] - Following the merger, the combined total assets are expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, positioning the new entity as the fourth largest in the industry [25][26] - The integration aims to leverage regional strengths and expand service offerings, particularly in asset management and investment banking [26][27] Group 6: U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September 2025 showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [28][29] - The job growth was primarily driven by the education and health sectors, which are characterized by high part-time employment rates [29][30] - The data suggests a mixed labor market, with concerns about rising unemployment overshadowing the positive job creation figures [30][31]

美联储的降息路线啊不清晰，美股也没有出现止跌的迹象，哪那么容易见底对不对？让自以为是的人接 盘去吧等，跌到所有人绝望，跌到自媒体同行们都没有声音，甚至开始转空头的时候，差不多就见底 了。在他们还兴冲冲的喊机会的时候，谁会去解救高位科技站岗的散户呢？等喊CPU机器人存储芯片的 这批人被骂到绝望的时候，散户开始底部割肉的时候才是真正的底部，大方向依旧可以期待指数目前在 中期调整区间，黄金坑不远了。 小林老师指数跌破3850，放量下跌是不是可以进场了？和讯投顾刘昊分析，早上指数低开30点，然后出 现了反弹，再次下跌，截止收盘指数下跌了96个点，下午的大盘呢是有反弹，啊主要的话还是一些低位 的科技，AI应用到光刻胶，再到机器人。跌幅收窄之后，会有很多人认为啊下跌结束又乐观起来了， 甚至会有资金呢去补仓加仓。我们不必啊大多数人认为到底的时候通常不是底，底部的话是在绝望中诞 生的，继续静等真正的底部反弹的时候，啊涨的绝对不是低位的科技，真正反弹的时候应该涨，核心科 技啊耐心等待机会都是等出来的。 ...

Core Insights - The automotive computer industry is evolving towards high integration, strong computing power, and wide-area communication, with automotive computers becoming the core device for intelligent transportation and vehicle control [1][13] - The market size of China's automotive computer industry is projected to grow from 9.248 billion yuan in 2018 to 14.368 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.62% [1][14] - The increasing consumer demand for automotive intelligence and comfort, particularly among younger demographics, is driving the adoption of automotive computers [1][13] Industry Overview - Automotive computers are specialized products designed for the unique operating environment of vehicles, featuring functions such as multimedia entertainment, GPS navigation, and fault diagnosis [3][9] - The industry has transitioned from simple electronic control units (ECUs) to integrated systems that serve as the "central nervous system" of vehicles, enabling advanced functionalities like automated driving and personalized services [7][18] Market Dynamics - The automotive computer market is supported by advancements in artificial intelligence, 5G communication, and high-performance chips, which enhance functionality and performance [1][13] - The automotive industry in China is experiencing a resurgence, with production and sales surpassing 30 million units in 2023, marking a new growth cycle for the automotive computer sector [11][12] Industry Chain - The automotive computer industry chain includes upstream hardware (motherboards, processors, memory, etc.) and software (operating systems, applications), midstream manufacturing, and downstream sales and service channels [9][10] Competitive Landscape - The market has attracted numerous domestic and international companies, including notable players like Haiguang Information, Lanke Technology, and BYD, which are enhancing their competitiveness through continuous innovation [2][14] Future Trends - The trend towards smart automotive computers will involve deeper integration of AI technologies, enhancing real-time data processing and user interaction capabilities [18] - Safety enhancements will be critical, with a focus on hardware and software security measures to protect against complex cyber threats [19] - Customization in design will become more pronounced, allowing automotive companies to tailor computing platforms to their specific market needs and vehicle functionalities [20][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite a decline in the ChiNext Index, the Shanghai Composite Index remains strong at 3900, suggesting a potential rebound in the market due to the resilience of heavyweight stocks [1] - The analysis highlights two main directions for the market: state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform and large technology sectors, with recent news on advancing SOE securitization driving interest in the SOE reform sector [1][2] - Market sentiment is currently experiencing a downturn, which affects the performance of new themes, making it challenging for low-positioned new topics to gain traction [1] Group 2 - The large technology sector is expected to rebound, following the logic that stocks that have previously declined may lead the recovery, particularly those that have shown strong performance recently [2] - Within the large technology sector, there are various sub-sectors showing different strengths, such as the CPU and robotics sectors, indicating a potential shift in leadership among technology stocks [2] - The market is anticipated to experience a "second half" where the direction of the rebound will be determined, focusing on whether previous leaders like CPUs will continue to rise or if other sectors like chips, nuclear power, or robotics will take the lead [2]

Core Insights - The current market downturn in A-shares, particularly in the technology sector, is viewed as a potential opportunity rather than a disaster, suggesting that panic selling may lead to missed investment chances [1] Group 1: Market Signals - Signal One: Despite significant declines in technology stocks, the trading volume has shrunk, indicating that this is not a sign of institutional selling but rather a period of observation ahead of quarterly earnings reports [3] - Signal Two: Many quality technology stocks have adjusted to their 20-day and 30-day moving averages, which are classic rebound support levels, suggesting a favorable entry point for both short-term and long-term investors [5] - Signal Three: The long-term trend remains strong, with the current asset securitization rate at approximately 75%, indicating that discussions about the end of the bull market may be premature [7] Group 2: Investment Strategies - For investors who have already positioned themselves, it is advisable to maintain a calm approach and consider taking some profits as a risk buffer while holding onto quality stocks [9] - New entrants should manage their positions carefully, keeping cash reserves to gradually increase their stakes after further market adjustments, focusing on "hard technology" sectors aligned with national strategies [9] - Investors lacking confidence may consider technology index funds to diversify risks, while those who prefer stock selection should conduct thorough valuation comparisons to identify potential growth stocks [9]

Group 1: Technology Innovation and Investment - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's R&D investment is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 48% increase from 2020[2] - R&D intensity is projected to reach 2.68%, surpassing the average level of EU countries[2] - The total number of R&D personnel in China ranks first in the world, indicating a solid foundation for becoming a technology powerhouse[2] Group 2: A-Share Market Developments - In 2025, 780 A-share listed companies announced semi-annual cash dividend plans, totaling 644.6 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year[2] - The increase in dividend levels is expected to enhance investor confidence and promote long-term capital market health[2] Group 3: Market Trends and Economic Policies - Multiple cities are implementing cash subsidies and housing fairs to stimulate housing consumption, particularly in second and third-tier cities[3] - The recent signing of a historic technology agreement between the US and UK aims to lead the world in artificial intelligence[3] Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - International precious metal futures saw a decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce, and silver futures down 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce[4] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and a rebound in the dollar index have pressured gold and silver prices[4] Group 5: Financial Market Indicators - The latest 10-year government bond yield is 1.852%, with a change of 1.52 basis points[5] - The latest value of the USDCNH is 7.1087, reflecting a 0.09% increase[7]

Core Viewpoint - The market is entering a new rotation cycle with a focus on PCB and CPU sectors, while low-priced stocks show mixed performance but still present speculative opportunities in robotics and real estate sectors [1] Sector Analysis - **PCB and CPU Sectors**: These sectors are experiencing significant upward movement, indicating a potential consensus among investors for the foreseeable future [1] - **Robotics and Real Estate**: Speculative opportunities are identified in these sectors, particularly as they are linked to current hot topics and are in a rebound cycle [1] - **Financial Sector**: The financial sector is under pressure due to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with mixed performance among major financial stocks [1] Federal Reserve Impact - **Interest Rate Decision**: The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut, which is seen as a major positive for the market. However, a potential 50 basis point cut could lead to short-term negative reactions due to lowered expectations for future cuts [1] - **Market Reactions**: A 25 basis point cut is likely to result in a direct market rally, while a 50 basis point cut may cause initial declines followed by recovery [1] Commodity and Material Sectors - **Beneficiaries of Rate Cuts**: The non-ferrous and bulk commodity sectors are expected to benefit from the anticipated rate cuts, with metals like gold, silver, copper, iron, and cobalt already showing upward trends in September [1]