（声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 国海证券指出，展望2026年，煤炭行业供需关系预计将有改善，叠加政策托底，预计煤价中枢或有提 升，预计北港动力煤价中枢在750元左右、北港主焦煤均价在1550元左右，行业盈利能力有望得到一定 修复。与此同时，低利率时代背景下，煤炭板块的高股息价值是机构重要配置点。 1月7日，沪指微涨录得14连阳，创业板指冲高回落。从板块来看，煤炭板块持续拉升，大有能源、陕西 黑猫、安泰集团涨停，郑州煤电、潞安环能、山西焦煤、江钨装备等涨超6%，山西焦化、中煤能源、 金能科技等个股跟涨。 消息面上，大连商品交易所（大商所）焦煤、焦炭主力合约强势拉升，涨幅达8%并触及涨停，收盘分 别报1164元/吨、1773元/吨。 ...

天风证券1月6日研报指出，首钢资源主要从事焦煤开采以及原焦煤及精焦煤生产和销售，公司在山西柳 林县拥有兴无、金家庄、寨崖底三座在产焦煤矿，三个煤矿产能均为175万吨/年，公司总产能为525万 吨/年。从公司的费用率和资产负债率来看，公司的经营相对保守、稳健。但从毛利率和净利率角度 看，公司盈利能力较强。 智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股多数走高，截至发稿，首钢资源(00639)涨7.64%，报3.24港元；中国秦发 (00866)涨5.23%，报3.02港元；兖矿能源(01171)涨4.57%，报10.53港元；中煤能源(01898)涨3.65%，报 10.78港元。 消息面上，1月7日，大商所焦煤主力合约触及涨停，报1164元/吨，涨幅为7.98%；焦炭主力合约涨 6.7%，报1752元/吨。国海证券指出，展望2026年，"炭火暖意，天平微倾"，行业供需关系预计将有改 善，叠加政策托底，预计煤价中枢或有提升，预计北港动力煤价中枢在750元左右、北港主焦煤均价在 1550元左右，行业盈利能力有望得到一定修复。与此同时，低利率时代背景下，煤炭板块的高股息价值 是机构重要配置点。 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 | 铁路公路 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 05 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2026 | 年 | 01 月 | 05 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 8.60 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 8.93/6.72 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 21,016.13 | | | ...

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond futures main contract closed down 0.86% on November 26, with the 30-year bond futures (TL2603) closing at 114.290 yuan, down 0.990 yuan [1] - The ETF market showed mixed results, with the communication ETF (515880) up 5.61%, communication equipment ETF (159583) up 5.54%, and the entrepreneurial AI ETF (159242) up 5.29% [1] - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index fell 0.85% to 480.94 points, while individual convertible bonds like Yingte and Haomei saw increases of 3.06% and 2.83% respectively [1] Group 2 - The chief strategist of China Galaxy Securities, Yang Chao, indicated that the A-share market will benefit from upward liquidity, with current valuations being relatively reasonable compared to global equity markets [2] - UBS's head of China equities, Shi Bin, noted that the innovation sector, including pharmaceuticals and AI, has been a major driver of market performance this year, and is expected to continue its robust growth [2] - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for China, Wang Ying, highlighted increasing discussions around the long-term sustainability of stocks, which is a focus not only in China but globally [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yuehai Investment reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 1.3% to HKD 14.281 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily driven by growth in water resource business revenue [1] - The company achieved a net profit of HKD 4.067 billion, reflecting a 13.2% year-on-year increase, attributed to reduced financial and administrative expenses, net gains from investment properties, and the divestment of Yuehai Land [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's pre-tax profit rose by 9.5% to HKD 6.241 billion, supported by lower financial and administrative costs, with financial expenses decreasing to HKD 263 million [1] - The net gain from ongoing investment properties was HKD 1 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of HKD 73 million in the same period last year [1] - The divestment of Yuehai Land resulted in a reduced loss of HKD 17 million, compared to a loss of HKD 39 million in the previous year [1] Group 2: Water Resource Business - The Dongshen Water Supply project reported a total water supply of 1.67 billion tons, with revenue of HKD 5.242 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [2] - Revenue from water supply to Hong Kong was HKD 4.303 billion, up 2.6% year-on-year, while supply to Shenzhen and Dongguan decreased by 2.5% to HKD 939 million [2] - Other water resource revenues increased by 5.8% to HKD 5.611 billion, although pre-tax profit decreased by 2.6% to HKD 1.601 billion [2] Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - Yuehai Investment announced the acquisition of a 51% stake in Yangjiang Yuehai Qingyuan for RMB 156 million, enhancing its operational scale in wastewater pipeline renovation [3] - The company also acquired a 2% stake in Shantou Yuehai Water for RMB 70.88 million, increasing its ownership to 51% [3] - Post-acquisition, the operational scale of the company will rise from 11.18 million tons per day to 12.10 million tons per day, strengthening its market presence [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Target Price - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of HKD 4.218 billion, HKD 4.397 billion, and HKD 4.576 billion for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.2%, 4.2%, and 4.1% respectively [3] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected at HKD 0.65, HKD 0.67, and HKD 0.70 [3] - The target price is set at HKD 9.11, based on a 2026 PE ratio of 13.6 times, reflecting the company's stable growth and strong cash flow [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HKD 14.281 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 4.083 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [2][4] - The company has effectively controlled expenses, divested from Yuehai Land, and maintained stable performance in its water resources business, with positive results in property and department store sectors, indicating a robust outlook for dividend growth [2][4] Financial Performance - The net financial expenses for the continuing operations significantly decreased to HKD 263 million from HKD 558 million in the previous year, demonstrating effective debt management [8] - The fair value adjustment of investment properties yielded a net gain of HKD 1 million, a recovery from a net loss of HKD 73 million in the same period last year [8] - The water supply business showed steady performance, with total water supply to Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Dongguan increasing by 1.5% to 1.670 billion tons, generating revenue of HKD 5.242 billion, up 1.6% [8] Segment Performance - Property investment revenue increased by 4.8% to HKD 1.262 billion, driven by higher average rental rates and improved occupancy [8] - Department store operations saw a revenue decline of 45.6% to HKD 317 million, but tax profit increased by 37.3% to HKD 64 million due to prior year impairments [8] - Hotel operations revenue rose by 7.3% to HKD 505 million, although tax profit fell by 20.3% to HKD 69 million due to decreased average room rates [8] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend increased by 11.2% to HKD 0.2666 per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 65%, reflecting confidence in the company's stable dividend growth [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 4.540 billion, HKD 4.752 billion, and HKD 4.834 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a consistent dividend payout ratio of 65% [8] - The estimated dividend yields based on the stock price as of October 27, 2025, are 6.32%, 6.62%, and 6.73% for the respective years, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.28x, 9.82x, and 9.66x, indicating strong dividend value [8]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is gaining attention due to its high dividend value amidst increasing macroeconomic uncertainties and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" approval, presenting potential investment opportunities in the fourth quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Market Environment - The macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly uncertain, leading to cautious investor behavior and a rotation in market sectors, with coal and banking industries showing strong performance [3]. - The new U.S. tariff policies are impacting market sentiment, prompting investors to seek stable assets, highlighting the investment value of coal as a high-dividend cash cow [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coal supply-demand landscape is improving, with domestic supply constraints and seasonal demand increases expected to support price rebounds for both thermal and coking coal [4]. - Policies aimed at reducing overproduction are leading to a contraction in domestic coal supply, while the demand for imported coal is rising due to price increases [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The only coal ETF in the market (515220) has surpassed 13.5 billion yuan in scale, with a dividend yield exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months, making it an attractive investment option in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [6]. - The coal sector is characterized by high profitability, strong cash flow, and significant dividend yields, making it a compelling investment choice as the fundamentals reach a turning point [5].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund of funds (FOF) has shown a clear adjustment strategy in the first half of the year, recognizing the attractiveness of equity assets and structural market characteristics, while continuing to capture market opportunities during rotations [1][4]. Group 1: Performance and Strategy - The public FOF market has experienced double growth in both performance and scale, with an average return of 21.21% over the past year, and nearly all FOF products achieving positive returns [5]. - The top-performing FOFs have heavily invested in sectors such as rare earths, innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and gold, with a focus on rebalancing strategies for sectors that have seen short-term price surges [1][3][4]. - The "Guotai Preferred Navigation One-Year Holding FOF" has outperformed with a net value growth rate of 78.46% over the past year, driven by significant investments in rare earth ETFs [2][5]. Group 2: Investment Focus - Fund managers are optimistic about rare earths due to supply-side reforms and the potential for price recovery, while also favoring innovative pharmaceuticals and gold due to improving fundamentals and market conditions [3][4]. - The focus on high-dividend value stocks includes sectors such as banking, insurance, and technology, with an emphasis on AI, semiconductors, and consumer electronics as key areas for investment [4][5]. Group 3: Market Trends - The total scale of public FOFs reached 1650.16 billion yuan by the end of the second quarter, marking a growth of over 25% from the beginning of the year, indicating increasing attractiveness in the FOF market [5][6]. - The issuance of new public FOF products has surpassed previous years, with 38 products launched in 2023, reflecting a growing interest in this investment vehicle [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has shown strong performance, with a 1.80% increase, driven by significant gains in constituent stocks such as Tunnel Co. (600820) and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) rose by 1.83%, marking a third consecutive increase [1] - Key stocks in the coal sector, including Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy, experienced a 10% limit up [1] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to strong demand and favorable pricing conditions [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Everbright Securities noted that the "anti-involution" expectations are strengthening, predicting a bullish trend for coal prices as the peak demand season approaches [1] - Guosen Securities highlighted the resilience of coal demand and the potential for price rebounds in the second half of the year, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics [1] - The coal sector demonstrated strong performance metrics in Q1 2025, including a low debt-to-asset ratio of 44.7%, a net profit margin of 12.7%, and a relatively high return on equity (ROE) [1] Group 3: Index Composition - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index comprises 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend yields, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend state-owned enterprises [2] - The top five industries represented in the index are banking, coal, transportation, real estate, and media [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 15.81% of the total index weight, with significant contributions from companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a short-term rebound, supported by stable prices for thermal and coking coal, and an approaching peak electricity demand in summer, which is expected to bolster near-term performance in the coal industry [1][3]. Short-term Outlook - Recent prices for thermal coal and coking coal have shown signs of stabilization, with the Qinhuangdao port's 5500 kcal thermal coal price gradually recovering from previous lows [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) anticipates a peak electricity load increase of approximately 10 million kilowatts year-on-year during the summer peak, which is likely to enhance coal procurement demand from power plants [3]. Medium-term Outlook - Recent policy measures in cities like Guangzhou and Xi'an aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to improve macroeconomic expectations, providing demand-side support for coal prices [3]. - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. may enhance export demand and resilience, alleviating previous concerns over tariffs and supporting coal prices and the performance of listed companies [3]. Investment Appeal - The coal sector has seen a recent price decline, leading to an increase in dividend yields, with the China Securities Coal Index currently yielding 6%, placing it in the 70th percentile historically, making it attractive for dividend-seeking investors [1][4]. - The coal ETF (515220) is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity due to the sector's improved valuation and dividend yield attractiveness following recent corrections [5].