热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 封帆 策略摘要 氧化铝：供应过剩的局面始终未改，前期盘面价格大幅度贴水现货，刺激仓单消化，但随着月底盘面价 格拉涨后，卖交割利润重新显现将会减少仓单风险。当前氧化铝市场格局集中度已经较高，在供应端不 出现实质性供给收缩的情况下，价格缺乏持续上涨动力，且当前电解铝厂原材料储备充足，后期冬储预 期不足，绝对价格上涨后，常规现货采购招标存在暂停取消的情况。海外矿端供应方面过剩预期不减， 随着几内亚公投结束以及Axis矿的复产，几内亚风险度下调，矿端价格虽开始接近几内亚边际最高成 本，但仍有小幅下滑空间。进入新一个合同月，氧化铝长单均价已经降至边际生产最高现金成本，后期 关注矿价下调幅度以及国内冶炼减产的博弈。虽然基本面微观数据难有好转，库存持续增加，但需要警 惕在有色商品受宏观因素主导持续走强的背景下，氧化铝盘面价格是否会受到情绪的带动。 电解铝：供需矛盾变化并不大，高频数据呈现出消费从旺季向淡季转变的表现，下游加工产品开工率及 产量环比开始回落，铝锭社会库存开始累库，且由于绝对价格受宏观因素主导大幅度拉涨而压制下游采 购积极性，现货贴水持续 ...

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 6年前，一家欧洲初创企业研发出一项突破性技术，能够将曾被视为废料的低品位铝土矿转化为铝生产 所需的优质原料。 这项创新不仅有望盘活枯竭矿山，更为提取半导体、电动汽车及国防领域必需的关键矿产与稀土元素打 开了一扇新大门。 最早，这项技术在美国迈阿密的一场行业会议上对外公布。彼时，从华盛顿到布鲁塞尔，西方多国政府 都大肆炒作"对华依赖"，频频疾呼重振脆弱的供应链，外界本以为这项欧洲发明会率先在欧美落地。 然而，整整6年，欧美官员虽忙于频繁召开峰会、发布政策声明，呼吁关键矿产生产回流，却迟迟未见 实质性进展，连项目雏形的影子都没看到。 更具戏剧性的是，这项被视为"摆脱对华依赖"希望的技术，最后反倒在中国建成了全球首个规模化应用 的工业园区。 而且，从开工到投产，仅仅耗时10个月。 "中国以闪电速度，已悄然推进相关布局。"据香港《南华早报》10日报道，在山西传统煤炭产区柳林 县，由法瑞合资企业宜比拓（IB2）与山西森泽能源科技集团合作的铝土矿废渣综合利用项目，已迅速 完成了工程设计、许可、建设和调试，并于11月正式投产，这也标志着这项革命性脱硅技术在全球范围 内首次实现规模化应用。 报道指出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of China's export controls on gallium and germanium on the global supply chain, particularly affecting the U.S. military-industrial complex and the F-35 fighter jet program [1][6][14]. Group 1: Export Controls and Supply Chain Impact - China's Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on critical metals like gallium and germanium starting August 1, 2023, in response to escalating U.S. restrictions on Chinese technology exports [1]. - The global gallium supply chain faced immediate disruption due to China's export restrictions, leading to a significant drop in F-35 deliveries from a planned 150 units to less than 100 by the end of 2023 [3][6]. - The price of gallium surged from $350 per kilogram to $725, with projections to exceed $595 by September 2025, directly impacting U.S. military production [6][13]. Group 2: U.S. Production Challenges - The U.S. faces enormous economic burdens in attempting to establish domestic gallium production, with estimated costs for building equivalent aluminum facilities reaching $210 billion, excluding operational costs [4]. - The energy requirements for gallium extraction in the U.S. are substantial, with 1.36 billion kilowatt-hours needed per ton, and U.S. industrial electricity prices being three times higher than China's [4][8]. - The U.S. Department of Defense began inventorying gallium supplies in July 2023, recognizing the severe impact of gallium shortages on the production of critical weapons systems like the F-35 and Patriot missiles [4][12]. Group 3: Global Resource Dynamics - China dominates the gallium market, producing 98% of the global supply, and has a significant advantage due to its abundant aluminum ore reserves and low electricity costs [6][8][10]. - The U.S. attempts to recycle gallium from old circuit boards have proven insufficient, with a recovery rate of only 20% [5]. - The competition for strategic resources like gallium and rare earth elements reflects a broader reconfiguration of global supply chains, exposing vulnerabilities in U.S. military reliance on Chinese resources [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of copper in the AI era, likening it to oil in the past, due to its critical role in powering and cooling advanced technologies like GPUs and data centers [5][11]. Group 1: Copper Demand and Supply - Copper is essential for high-end GPU chips, with each H100 GPU requiring numerous copper connections for optimal performance [7]. - The demand for copper in data centers is surging, with an estimated copper consumption of 46.7 million tons in 2023, projected to rise to 71 million tons by 2026 [9]. - By 2030, global electricity demand for data centers is expected to increase by 160%, necessitating significant upgrades to aging electrical infrastructure [10]. - Copper's unique properties, such as high conductivity and longevity, make it irreplaceable in electrical transmission, with predictions indicating that 60% of copper demand growth will come from electrical infrastructure by 2030 [10][11]. Group 2: Price Projections and Market Trends - Goldman Sachs forecasts copper prices to reach $10,750 per ton by 2027, driven by limited growth in mining and refining capacities [11][12]. - The global copper mining output has seen a compound annual growth rate of only 2.1% over the past decade, with expectations for future growth remaining low [11]. Group 3: Aluminum as a Substitute - As copper prices rise, aluminum is gaining traction as a cost-effective alternative, particularly in GPU cooling systems where weight and cost advantages are significant [14]. - The use of aluminum in data center cooling can reduce overall weight and costs, with aluminum heat sinks costing 40-50% less than copper counterparts [15]. - UBS has raised its aluminum price forecasts, anticipating continued growth in global aluminum production [16]. Group 4: Cooling Technologies - The shift towards liquid cooling technologies is becoming essential due to the limitations of traditional air cooling systems, which cannot meet the thermal demands of high-power AI chips [20][21]. - The global liquid cooling market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted market size of $2.84 billion by 2025, reflecting a 44.9% year-on-year increase [22]. - Innovations in cooling solutions, such as microchannel liquid cooling plates, are being explored to efficiently manage the heat generated by advanced computing systems [23]. Group 5: Broader Market Implications - The increasing demand for copper, aluminum, and cooling solutions reflects the broader physical needs driven by the growth of AI and data centers, indicating a significant market transformation [24].

Group 1 - Brazil's total exports of bauxite and alumina reached 363,300 tons by the third week of August 2025, compared to 532,400 tons in August of the previous year [1] - The average daily shipment volume increased to 33,000 tons per day, marking a 36.46% rise from 24,200 tons per day in August of the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ecological restoration efforts at the Jiaoji Aluminum Mine in Sanmenxia, which has transformed from a heavily exploited mining area into a green landscape, showcasing a successful model of environmental rehabilitation and sustainable development [2][10]. Group 1: Ecological Restoration Efforts - The Jiaoji Aluminum Mine has completed significant restoration work, including filling 3.33 million cubic meters of earth, covering 456,100 square meters, and constructing 12,000 meters of drainage ditches, with a total treatment area of 1,116 acres [2]. - The mine has successfully restored 363 acres of dry land and 496 acres of tree-covered land, and has planted over 360 acres of crops, expected to yield 300,000 kilograms of grain annually [2][10]. - The restoration process involved a tailored ecological repair plan, which included transforming steep slopes into terraced steps and implementing effective drainage systems to manage rainwater [6][9]. Group 2: Challenges and Innovations - The restoration faced challenges such as the high steepness of slopes (up to 70 degrees) and low survival rates of initially planted tree species like white poplar, leading to a shift in strategy to include more resilient species like purple spire and alfalfa [8][9]. - The restoration team utilized a combination of manual labor and machinery, with 52 excavators and over 60 transport vehicles working simultaneously to achieve the restoration goals [7]. - The ecological restoration has turned the previously barren landscape into a thriving environment, with the first batch of white poplar trees reaching nearly two meters in height after two years [9][10]. Group 3: Community Impact and Future Prospects - The successful restoration has instilled confidence in the local community, with plans for villagers to return and develop tourism in the area, enhancing local economic opportunities [11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of ongoing environmental monitoring and joint enforcement efforts to ensure the sustainability of the restoration outcomes [12].