锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年02月08日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：节前价格震荡收敛，关注宏观情绪面变化 ◆ 供应侧矿端减量。当下国产矿TC集中在1100-1600/金属吨，进口矿TC小幅下调，集 中20-40美元/干吨，Antamina等海外锌矿船货报盘价格已降至-15、-50美元/干吨； 此外，参考TECK最新公告，再次下调Antanima矿山26年生产指引，若考虑股权占比， 即Antamina26年产量同比下降27万吨，较此前再次下调9万吨左右。 ◆ 需求侧淡季明显。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金开工率环比下滑明显，节前订单不及预 期，多数企业已经进入假期模式，等待节后复工，仅少数大型企业保留极低负荷维持 核心订单交付，新单与采购全面停滞。 ◆ 长周期来看， ...

【ccmn.cn摘要】国际油价大跌且市场厌恶情绪弥漫，隔夜伦锌续跌 1.53%；贵金属断崖式下跌致有色 多数品种跌停，沪锌跟跌，现货需求弱、加工企业将放假，今现锌或下跌。 基本面方面，2月锌市供需双弱。炼厂减停产叠加自然日减少，精炼锌月度产量环比减少约5万吨。锌矿 周期性供给增加正逐步落地，但受海外炼厂减产影响，矿端增产向冶炼端放量的传导节奏放缓。国内部 分锌矿冬季停产，近期华中、华北、西南地区均有锌矿进入检修，国内锌矿供应仍偏紧，锌精矿加工费 承压，制约精炼锌产出。需求端相对平稳，以存量需求为主，但临近春节，沪锌下游消费低迷。上期所 库存数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，周度锌锭库存为6.52万吨，较1月23日下降7997吨，显示消费仍具 韧性。不过，本周下游镀锌行业开工率明显下滑，企业陆续进入春节放假模式，采买需求进一步回落， 社会库存显著增加。 综合来看，市场担忧新任美联储主席的政策路径，叠加美国政府面临再次关门风险，恐慌情绪持续笼罩 锌市，价格继续承压。此外，投机客和基金撤离市场，且前期锌价大幅上涨缺乏供需基本面充分支撑， 宏观层面稍有风吹草动，价格便波动不定。淡季及春节放假导致消费低迷，现货交投清 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a downward trend in zinc prices, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 2 - Today's Shanghai zinc futures showed a decline, with the main contract closing at 23975 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan or 1.36% from the previous day [1] - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2602 contract decreased by 35924 lots to 151811 lots, while open interest fell by 7852 lots to 83751 lots [1] - The average price for domestic spot zinc was reported at 24200 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan, with similar declines observed in other grades of zinc [1] Group 3 - On the macroeconomic front, mixed signals from the US labor market and service sector indicators have led to expectations of continued loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on the dollar [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly those stemming from Trump, have created uncertainty, leading to a withdrawal of long positions and a decline in international oil prices, which in turn negatively impacted zinc prices [2] Group 4 - Zinc ore supply remains tight, with low processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate and a shortage of domestic ore supply [3] - Despite reduced demand from smelters due to maintenance and production cuts, the processing fees for zinc ore have shown signs of stabilization [3] - The overall market sentiment has turned bearish, with expectations of high-level adjustments in zinc prices in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc market shows a situation of supply reduction and weak demand, with prices fluctuating widely, and the strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2] - Domestic supply side has obvious production cuts, while the consumption side enters the off - season, and the zinc price shows an oscillatory performance this week. The export window is expected to remain open, and there is a certain profit - loss ratio for internal - external reverse arbitrage, but it takes time to realize [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: Last week, the closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 22,720, with a weekly increase of 1.63%; the night - session closing price was 22,575, with a decrease of 0.64%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 3066.5, with a weekly increase of 0.54% [6] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 87,261, a decrease of 6303 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 112,510, a decrease of 3899 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 7690, a decrease of 1228 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 221,416, a decrease of 819 compared with the previous week [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc warehouse receipts inventory increased by 1494 to 69,268; SHFE Zinc total inventory decreased by 3208 to 100,208; social inventory decreased by 2800 to 158,700; LME zinc inventory decreased by 400 to 34,900; bonded area inventory decreased by 400 to 3800 [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at the historical median. Mine enterprise profits have rebounded to the historical median, smelting profits have declined to the historical median, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a relatively low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operating rate**: The smelting operating rate has declined, and the downstream operating rate is at a low - to - medium level in history. Zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded to the historical median in the same period, refined zinc operating rate has declined to a high level in the historical same period, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have rebounded to a low - to - medium level in history [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium in Guangdong and Tianjin shows weak performance. Overseas premium is differentiated this week, with a slight increase in Singapore premium and a slight rebound in LME CASH - 3M. SHFE Zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes in the far end [16][17][19] - **Inventory**: This week shows a slight inventory reduction, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a rebound in total inventory, a significant decline in the cancelled warrant ratio to a historical low level. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has decreased slightly [23][27][29] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at the median level in the historical same period [30] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has rebounded, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has decreased significantly. The ore arrival volume is at a low level, and the smelter raw material inventory has decreased [33][34] - **Refined zinc**: Smelting production has rebounded to a high level in the historical same period, smelter finished product inventory has decreased to a high level in the historical same period, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [41] - **Recycled zinc raw materials**: No specific summary information is available in the text 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream processing materials**: The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, the downstream monthly operating rate has declined slightly, mostly at a low - to - medium level in the historical same period [52][55] - **End - users**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [69] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity have certain fluctuations, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters is affected by these factors [71][72][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral to weak [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the logic of surplus is gradually becoming apparent. The short - term zinc price shows a downward trend in shock, and in the medium and long - term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended. During the off - season of domestic supply increase and demand decrease, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,320, with a weekly decline of 2.47%, and the closing price of the night session was 22,225, with a decline of 0.43%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,729.5, with a weekly decline of 3.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 105,121, a decrease of 46,965 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 108,084, a decrease of 21,144 compared with the previous week [7] - **Spot - Futures Spread**: The LME zinc cash - three - month spread was - 10.96 last Friday, a decrease of 9 compared with the previous week [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 1,693 to 14,982, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,305 to 61,724, social inventory increased by 4,900 to 103,200, LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,950 to 100,825, and bonded area inventory increased by 1,000 to 7,000 [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have rebounded to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has rebounded but remains low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has recovered to a high level, and downstream capacity utilization is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has declined and is at a medium level in the same period, refined zinc capacity utilization has declined and is at a high level in the same period, downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, and die - casting zinc capacity utilization has decreased and is at a medium - to - low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot Premium**: Spot premium has rebounded slightly, overseas premium is relatively stable, Antwerp's premium has decreased slightly, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc inventory is showing a stable upward trend at a low level, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME total inventory is at a medium level in the same period, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly. Bonded area inventory is stable [33][38][41] - **Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same period [42] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down, ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period [45][46] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47][50] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Consumption Growth**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [56] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Downstream monthly capacity utilization has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [59] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [62][65] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The report presents data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, as well as the profitability of overseas zinc smelters, but no specific conclusions are drawn [73][76]