今日沪期锌走势：今日沪期锌早盘窄幅走软，午后盘面跌势加速；沪锌2602主力合约开盘价24190元/ 吨，最高价24230元/吨，最低价23845元/吨，昨日结算价24305元/吨，今日收盘价23975元/吨，跌330 元，跌幅1.36%。今日沪锌2602主力合约成交量151811手减少35924手，持仓量83751手减少7852手。伦 锌北京时间14：51最新价报32172美元，涨12美元。 基本面方面，锌矿供应持续偏紧，国内锌精矿加工费低位运行，国产矿供应短缺。月初，国内各地区1 月锌精矿加工费陆续确定，下行趋势明确。不过，国内多个冶炼厂减产或检修，锌精矿需求减弱。近期 锌矿加工费跌势有所放缓，叠加锌价强势上涨修复了炼厂利润，企业生产积极性提升。同时，锌锭出口 预期回落，供应压力边际增加，而消费处于淡季，终端订单有限抑制了初端企业开工。现货市场，近期 锌价重心上移，下游接货意愿受抑，节后下游需求有待恢复，仓库正常到货使得现货流通趋于宽松。早 间持货商挺价意愿较弱，部分刚需低价采购；午后盘面加速下行，持货商出货意愿增强，但现货维持升 水格局，下调幅度受限，现货市场总体成交表现一般。 综合来看，宏观乐观情绪消退 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc market shows a situation of supply reduction and weak demand, with prices fluctuating widely, and the strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2] - Domestic supply side has obvious production cuts, while the consumption side enters the off - season, and the zinc price shows an oscillatory performance this week. The export window is expected to remain open, and there is a certain profit - loss ratio for internal - external reverse arbitrage, but it takes time to realize [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: Last week, the closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 22,720, with a weekly increase of 1.63%; the night - session closing price was 22,575, with a decrease of 0.64%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 3066.5, with a weekly increase of 0.54% [6] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 87,261, a decrease of 6303 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 112,510, a decrease of 3899 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 7690, a decrease of 1228 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 221,416, a decrease of 819 compared with the previous week [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc warehouse receipts inventory increased by 1494 to 69,268; SHFE Zinc total inventory decreased by 3208 to 100,208; social inventory decreased by 2800 to 158,700; LME zinc inventory decreased by 400 to 34,900; bonded area inventory decreased by 400 to 3800 [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at the historical median. Mine enterprise profits have rebounded to the historical median, smelting profits have declined to the historical median, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a relatively low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operating rate**: The smelting operating rate has declined, and the downstream operating rate is at a low - to - medium level in history. Zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded to the historical median in the same period, refined zinc operating rate has declined to a high level in the historical same period, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have rebounded to a low - to - medium level in history [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium in Guangdong and Tianjin shows weak performance. Overseas premium is differentiated this week, with a slight increase in Singapore premium and a slight rebound in LME CASH - 3M. SHFE Zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes in the far end [16][17][19] - **Inventory**: This week shows a slight inventory reduction, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a rebound in total inventory, a significant decline in the cancelled warrant ratio to a historical low level. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has decreased slightly [23][27][29] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at the median level in the historical same period [30] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has rebounded, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has decreased significantly. The ore arrival volume is at a low level, and the smelter raw material inventory has decreased [33][34] - **Refined zinc**: Smelting production has rebounded to a high level in the historical same period, smelter finished product inventory has decreased to a high level in the historical same period, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [41] - **Recycled zinc raw materials**: No specific summary information is available in the text 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream processing materials**: The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, the downstream monthly operating rate has declined slightly, mostly at a low - to - medium level in the historical same period [52][55] - **End - users**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [69] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity have certain fluctuations, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters is affected by these factors [71][72][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral to weak [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the logic of surplus is gradually becoming apparent. The short - term zinc price shows a downward trend in shock, and in the medium and long - term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended. During the off - season of domestic supply increase and demand decrease, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,320, with a weekly decline of 2.47%, and the closing price of the night session was 22,225, with a decline of 0.43%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,729.5, with a weekly decline of 3.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 105,121, a decrease of 46,965 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 108,084, a decrease of 21,144 compared with the previous week [7] - **Spot - Futures Spread**: The LME zinc cash - three - month spread was - 10.96 last Friday, a decrease of 9 compared with the previous week [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 1,693 to 14,982, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,305 to 61,724, social inventory increased by 4,900 to 103,200, LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,950 to 100,825, and bonded area inventory increased by 1,000 to 7,000 [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have rebounded to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has rebounded but remains low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has recovered to a high level, and downstream capacity utilization is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has declined and is at a medium level in the same period, refined zinc capacity utilization has declined and is at a high level in the same period, downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, and die - casting zinc capacity utilization has decreased and is at a medium - to - low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot Premium**: Spot premium has rebounded slightly, overseas premium is relatively stable, Antwerp's premium has decreased slightly, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc inventory is showing a stable upward trend at a low level, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME total inventory is at a medium level in the same period, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly. Bonded area inventory is stable [33][38][41] - **Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same period [42] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down, ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period [45][46] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47][50] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Consumption Growth**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [56] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Downstream monthly capacity utilization has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [59] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [62][65] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The report presents data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, as well as the profitability of overseas zinc smelters, but no specific conclusions are drawn [73][76]