1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to stabilize and adjust, and suggests paying attention to the range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,975 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan/ton; the 05 - 06 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,103 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 47 US dollars/ton; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 185,428 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,547 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 1,772 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 287 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, with no change [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 152,266 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,918 tons; the LME inventory is 117,175 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 500 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,860 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 190 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 630 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 20.79 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.82 US dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,610 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Balance - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is 29,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 9,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 84,300 tons [3]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global zinc mine output of ILZSG is 1.0104 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 59,600 tons; the domestic refined zinc output is 675,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 414,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 180,800 tons; the refined zinc import volume is 4,518.01 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19,594.63 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 3,866.38 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,847.88 tons [3]. 3.5 Social Inventory - The zinc social inventory is 236,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,700 tons [3]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The output of galvanized sheets is 2.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.38 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [3]. - The new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 63.2042 million square meters, with a month - on - month decrease of 540.2771 million square meters [3]. - The automobile output is 3.4115 million vehicles, with a month - on - month decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner output is 21.6289 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of zinc is 19.43%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.25%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of zinc is 19.43%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.25% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 23.91%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 20.39%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% [3]. 3.8 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. Trump said the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend attacking its energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US [3]. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In the first quarter, it will complete an investment of 23 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35% [3]. - US Vice - President Vance talked with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu about the efforts to start negotiations with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran [3]. - Fed's Goolsbee said inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates, and still retaining the space for rate cuts this year. Milan said if there are second - round effects of inflation and wage increases, interest rates may need to be raised. Daly said too much forward - looking guidance would create a false sense of certainty [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices oscillate and converge before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro - sentiment side. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. The zinc ore expansion cycle is coming to an end, and the zinc ore tight - balance may become the norm. The TC operation center is expected to decline this year, and the zinc price operation center is expected to rise. In the short term, zinc prices may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 24,450, with a weekly decline of 5.36%. The closing price of the night session was 24,595, with a night - session increase of 0.59%. The price of LmeS - zinc3 was 3,383, with an increase of 0.39% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc last Friday was 155,796, a decrease of 345,667 compared with the previous week. The open interest was 65,853, a decrease of 39,686 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 11,193, a decrease of 8,040 compared with the previous week. The open interest was 232,974, a decrease of 6,461 compared with the previous week [6]. - **Price Spreads**: The LME zinc premium decreased by 13.15, the bonded - area zinc premium increased by 130, the Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium increased by 20, the Guangdong 0 zinc spot premium decreased by 30, and the Tianjin 0 zinc spot premium decreased by 25. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 55. The zinc spot import loss increased by 444.89, and the SHFE zinc 3M import loss increased by 428.79 [7]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 2,620, the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 5,535, the social inventory increased by 16,700, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,400, and the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories are at a high level, and zinc ingots are accumulating normally before the holiday [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at a historical low. Mining enterprise profits are declining but still at a historical high, smelting profits are declining and at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operation Rate**: The zinc concentrate operation rate is rising and at a high level in the same period of history. The refined zinc operation rate is rising and at a medium level in the same period of history. The downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates are falling and at a medium - low level in the same period of history [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premium is rising. This week, overseas premiums are differentiated, with the Singapore premium remaining flat, the Antwerp premium remaining flat, and the LME CASH - 3M falling [18][20]. - **Price Spreads**: The SHFE zinc C - structure flattens [22]. - **Inventory**: This week, there is a significant inventory accumulation, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio is falling. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore area, the total LME inventory is relatively stable, CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancelled - warrant ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded - area inventory remains unchanged this week, and the global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [26][32][34]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level in the same period of history [35]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level in the same period, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has remained stable. The ore arrival volume is at a high level, and the smelter raw - material inventory is at a low level in the same period [38][39]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output is rising and at a high level in the same period of history. Smelter finished - product inventory is rising and at a high level in the same period of history. Zinc alloy output is at a high level [40]. - **Imports and Exports**: The refined zinc import loss is increasing, and the import volume and export volume data are also presented in the report [42]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: The operation rate of 87 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills and the scrap - steel daily consumption of 147 steel mills are presented, as well as the average prices of galvanized pipe slag and Hunan secondary zinc oxide [44][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive [51]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The downstream monthly operation rate has increased slightly and is mostly at a high level in the same period of history [55]. - **Downstream Raw - Material Inventory**: The raw - material inventories of galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are presented [56]. - **Downstream Finished - Product Inventory**: The finished - product inventories of galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are presented [59]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [65]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, electricity, and carbon emissions are presented, as well as the profit and loss of zinc smelters in different European countries [67][68][69][70].

Group 1 - International oil prices have sharply declined, leading to a pervasive negative sentiment in the market, which has caused a continued drop in zinc prices, with LME zinc falling by 1.53% to close at $3319 per ton [1][4] - The domestic zinc market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with refined zinc production decreasing by approximately 50,000 tons month-on-month due to factory shutdowns and seasonal maintenance [3] - The recent increase in U.S. manufacturing activity is overshadowed by trade policy uncertainties and potential government shutdowns, which may delay key employment data and create market information asymmetry [2][4] Group 2 - The domestic zinc market is facing tight supply conditions, with significant reductions in zinc mine output due to winter maintenance and repairs, while downstream consumption is low as companies prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival [3][4] - The market is concerned about the policy direction of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman, which could lead to tighter financial conditions and further pressure on zinc prices [2][4] - Speculative investors and funds are withdrawing from the market, and the lack of solid supply-demand fundamentals to support previous zinc price increases has led to increased price volatility [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a downward trend in zinc prices, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 2 - Today's Shanghai zinc futures showed a decline, with the main contract closing at 23975 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan or 1.36% from the previous day [1] - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2602 contract decreased by 35924 lots to 151811 lots, while open interest fell by 7852 lots to 83751 lots [1] - The average price for domestic spot zinc was reported at 24200 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan, with similar declines observed in other grades of zinc [1] Group 3 - On the macroeconomic front, mixed signals from the US labor market and service sector indicators have led to expectations of continued loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on the dollar [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly those stemming from Trump, have created uncertainty, leading to a withdrawal of long positions and a decline in international oil prices, which in turn negatively impacted zinc prices [2] Group 4 - Zinc ore supply remains tight, with low processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate and a shortage of domestic ore supply [3] - Despite reduced demand from smelters due to maintenance and production cuts, the processing fees for zinc ore have shown signs of stabilization [3] - The overall market sentiment has turned bearish, with expectations of high-level adjustments in zinc prices in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc market shows a situation of supply reduction and weak demand, with prices fluctuating widely, and the strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2] - Domestic supply side has obvious production cuts, while the consumption side enters the off - season, and the zinc price shows an oscillatory performance this week. The export window is expected to remain open, and there is a certain profit - loss ratio for internal - external reverse arbitrage, but it takes time to realize [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: Last week, the closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 22,720, with a weekly increase of 1.63%; the night - session closing price was 22,575, with a decrease of 0.64%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 3066.5, with a weekly increase of 0.54% [6] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 87,261, a decrease of 6303 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 112,510, a decrease of 3899 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 7690, a decrease of 1228 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 221,416, a decrease of 819 compared with the previous week [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc warehouse receipts inventory increased by 1494 to 69,268; SHFE Zinc total inventory decreased by 3208 to 100,208; social inventory decreased by 2800 to 158,700; LME zinc inventory decreased by 400 to 34,900; bonded area inventory decreased by 400 to 3800 [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at the historical median. Mine enterprise profits have rebounded to the historical median, smelting profits have declined to the historical median, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a relatively low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operating rate**: The smelting operating rate has declined, and the downstream operating rate is at a low - to - medium level in history. Zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded to the historical median in the same period, refined zinc operating rate has declined to a high level in the historical same period, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have rebounded to a low - to - medium level in history [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium in Guangdong and Tianjin shows weak performance. Overseas premium is differentiated this week, with a slight increase in Singapore premium and a slight rebound in LME CASH - 3M. SHFE Zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes in the far end [16][17][19] - **Inventory**: This week shows a slight inventory reduction, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a rebound in total inventory, a significant decline in the cancelled warrant ratio to a historical low level. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has decreased slightly [23][27][29] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at the median level in the historical same period [30] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has rebounded, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has decreased significantly. The ore arrival volume is at a low level, and the smelter raw material inventory has decreased [33][34] - **Refined zinc**: Smelting production has rebounded to a high level in the historical same period, smelter finished product inventory has decreased to a high level in the historical same period, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [41] - **Recycled zinc raw materials**: No specific summary information is available in the text 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream processing materials**: The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, the downstream monthly operating rate has declined slightly, mostly at a low - to - medium level in the historical same period [52][55] - **End - users**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [69] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity have certain fluctuations, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters is affected by these factors [71][72][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral to weak [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the logic of surplus is gradually becoming apparent. The short - term zinc price shows a downward trend in shock, and in the medium and long - term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended. During the off - season of domestic supply increase and demand decrease, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,320, with a weekly decline of 2.47%, and the closing price of the night session was 22,225, with a decline of 0.43%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,729.5, with a weekly decline of 3.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 105,121, a decrease of 46,965 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 108,084, a decrease of 21,144 compared with the previous week [7] - **Spot - Futures Spread**: The LME zinc cash - three - month spread was - 10.96 last Friday, a decrease of 9 compared with the previous week [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 1,693 to 14,982, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,305 to 61,724, social inventory increased by 4,900 to 103,200, LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,950 to 100,825, and bonded area inventory increased by 1,000 to 7,000 [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have rebounded to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has rebounded but remains low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has recovered to a high level, and downstream capacity utilization is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has declined and is at a medium level in the same period, refined zinc capacity utilization has declined and is at a high level in the same period, downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, and die - casting zinc capacity utilization has decreased and is at a medium - to - low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot Premium**: Spot premium has rebounded slightly, overseas premium is relatively stable, Antwerp's premium has decreased slightly, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc inventory is showing a stable upward trend at a low level, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME total inventory is at a medium level in the same period, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly. Bonded area inventory is stable [33][38][41] - **Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same period [42] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down, ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period [45][46] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47][50] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Consumption Growth**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [56] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Downstream monthly capacity utilization has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [59] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [62][65] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The report presents data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, as well as the profitability of overseas zinc smelters, but no specific conclusions are drawn [73][76]