锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年11月09日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：供应减产，需求较弱，价格宽幅震荡 强弱分析：中性 国内库存小幅去化 镀锌开工回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端减产明显。当下进口锌精矿亏损依旧较大，进口窗口关闭，对国产矿采购 需求进一步提升，叠加年底北方矿山停产，后续国产矿供应形势偏紧，国产矿TC下调 压力较大；从最新11月排产数据来看，云南、四川、陕西等地区减量扩大，另外关注 新疆地区新增产能投产，目前已平稳生产，增减相抵后产量或基本持平。 ◆ 消费端转入淡季。镀锌方面，市场需求逐步走弱，开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral to weak [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the logic of surplus is gradually becoming apparent. The short - term zinc price shows a downward trend in shock, and in the medium and long - term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended. During the off - season of domestic supply increase and demand decrease, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,320, with a weekly decline of 2.47%, and the closing price of the night session was 22,225, with a decline of 0.43%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,729.5, with a weekly decline of 3.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 105,121, a decrease of 46,965 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 108,084, a decrease of 21,144 compared with the previous week [7] - **Spot - Futures Spread**: The LME zinc cash - three - month spread was - 10.96 last Friday, a decrease of 9 compared with the previous week [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 1,693 to 14,982, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,305 to 61,724, social inventory increased by 4,900 to 103,200, LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,950 to 100,825, and bonded area inventory increased by 1,000 to 7,000 [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have rebounded to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has rebounded but remains low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has recovered to a high level, and downstream capacity utilization is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has declined and is at a medium level in the same period, refined zinc capacity utilization has declined and is at a high level in the same period, downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, and die - casting zinc capacity utilization has decreased and is at a medium - to - low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot Premium**: Spot premium has rebounded slightly, overseas premium is relatively stable, Antwerp's premium has decreased slightly, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc inventory is showing a stable upward trend at a low level, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME total inventory is at a medium level in the same period, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly. Bonded area inventory is stable [33][38][41] - **Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same period [42] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down, ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period [45][46] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47][50] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Consumption Growth**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [56] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Downstream monthly capacity utilization has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [59] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [62][65] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The report presents data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, as well as the profitability of overseas zinc smelters, but no specific conclusions are drawn [73][76]