锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：供需相对平衡，价格短期震荡 强弱分析：中性 国内库存小幅去化 镀锌开工回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端减量。当下进口锌精矿亏损仍然较大，叠加年底北方矿山停产，后续国产 矿供应形势偏紧，国产矿TC预计进一步下调。原料供应紧缺背景下，已经有炼厂计划 减产来缓解压力；从最新排产数据来看，云南、江西等地炼厂常规年度检修，新疆地 区投产项目平稳生产，增减相抵后本月供应环比或小幅减量。 ◆ 消费端淡季深化。镀锌方面，市场需求逐步走弱，开工率低位，终端订单基 ...

| 铅锌日评20251117：沪铅上方承压；沪锌或有回调 | 指标 | 2025/11/17 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | 17,425.00 | -0.43% | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 沪铅期现价格 | 元/吨 | 17,495.00 | -0.88% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | 元/吨 | -70.00 | 80.00 | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 升贴水-上海 | | | 美元/吨 | -23.09 | 1.17 | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -86.20 | 8.20 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -50.00 | -30.00 | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -10.00 | 10.00 | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 铅 | | 元/吨 | -10.00 | -10.00 | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 手 | 37,346.00 | -39.18% | 期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "range-bound" [1] Core Viewpoints - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,355 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3,050 dollars/ton with a 0.18% increase [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 93,564 lots, a decrease of 17,526 lots, and the LME zinc trading volume decreased by 1,501 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 116,409 lots, a decrease of 3,349 lots, and the LME zinc open interest decreased by 43 lots [1] - **Premium**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was 85.57 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.45 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 67,774 tons, an increase of 650 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons [1] News - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that if inflation declines, the Fed should cut interest rates, and Trump has not imposed a 10% tariff on Canada [2] - Three Fed officials opposed the October rate cut, while Waller supported a December rate cut. The market currently expects a 61% chance of another rate cut by the end of the year, down from 92% before Powell's speech [2][3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View - Zinc is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,310 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day, while the closing price of the LME 3M electronic zinc contract was 3,058.5 dollars/ton, up 1.29% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 128,753 lots, an increase of 8,676 lots, and the trading volume of LME zinc was 10,796 lots, a decrease of 721 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai zinc was 120,693 lots, a decrease of 491 lots, and the open interest of LME zinc was 222,508 lots, an increase of 264 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -45 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME CASH - 3M premium was 212.89 dollars/ton, up 25.52 dollars [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 68,271 tons, an increase of 2,547 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 35,250 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons [1]. 2. News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to take extraordinary measures to achieve decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas, implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action, and boost consumption. It also plans to layout future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, etc. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, there is an increase in both supply and demand, but refinery operations fall short of expectations due to factors like raw materials, resulting in tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has broken through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. With good refinery profits and an open import window, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply, and there is a need to be vigilant against a potential sharp decline in lead prices [1] - For the zinc market, the macro sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making domestic TC difficult to increase. The zinc price has received some support and is fluctuating upwards. With the continuous reduction of LME zinc inventories and the persistent LME 0 - 3 back structure, attention should be paid to overseas structural risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous day; the closing price of the main lead futures contract was 17,595 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic session) was 2,016.50 dollars/ton, up 0.22% [1] - The lead basis was - 295 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous lead futures contract was 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous lead futures contract was 45 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 79,514 lots, up 7.44%; the open interest was 83,846 lots, up 260.04%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.95, down 70.16% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 235,375 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 23,048 tons, down 2.89% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.57%, up 0.93 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 42.2%, up 7.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.36%, up 0.39 percentage points [1] - A secondary lead refinery in East China has decided to temporarily halt production, with only a small number of long - term orders to be fulfilled, and the resumption date is undetermined [1] Investment Strategy - A short position can be lightly established at high levels [1] Zinc Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,120 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the closing price of the main zinc futures contract was 22,355 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic session) was 3,019.50 dollars/ton, down 0.10% [1] - The zinc basis was - 235 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous zinc futures contract was - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous zinc futures contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 130,461 lots, down 20.62%; the open interest was 120,167 lots, down 3.67%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.09, down 17.60% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 37,600 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 65,849 tons, up 0.49% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 57.48%, down 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 53.13%, down 1.50 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.36%, down 0.77 percentage points [1] - On October 23rd, the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 221,889 lots, an increase of 300 lots [1] Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export window for zinc is open, and there is a certain risk - reward ratio for internal - external reverse arbitrage, but it takes time to realize profits [3] - The domestic supply side of zinc faces continuous pressure, and the consumption peak season is coming to an end. This week, zinc prices rebounded significantly due to factors such as LME inventory depletion and strong external prices [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last week was 22355, with a weekly increase of 2.48%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22300, with a night - session decrease of 0.25%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3019.5, with a weekly increase of 2.72% [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 130461, an increase of 41774 from the previous week, and the open interest was 120167, an increase of 42945 from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 11517, an increase of 416 from the previous week, and the open interest was 223518, a decrease of 753 from the previous week [8] - **Spot - Futures Price Difference Changes**: The LME zinc premium changed by 50.52, the bonded area zinc premium decreased by 45, and the spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc, Guangdong 0 zinc, and Tianjin 0 zinc also changed [8] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at high levels, while the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined. Zinc ore inventory in Lianyungang and smelter raw material inventory are at high levels, while seven - region inventory and downstream raw material inventory have decreased [10][11] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits have declined, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a relatively low level [12][13] 3.2.3 Production - The smelting production rate has declined, and the downstream production rate is at a historically low level. The production rates of zinc concentrate, refined zinc, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide have all declined [14][15] 3.3 Trading Aspect 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums are differentiated. Overseas premiums are flat this week, and LME CASH - 3M has risen to a historical high with sharp fluctuations [18][20] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc maintains a C - structure, but there are certain changes in the far - end [22] 3.3.3 Inventory - Domestic inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a slight increase this week but still at a historically low level. Bonded area inventory has decreased, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][33] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [34] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical low, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees continue to decline. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant [37][38] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting production has decreased but is still at a historically high level. Smelter finished product inventory has decreased but is also at a historically high level, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [45] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - The production rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the daily consumption of scrap steel by 147 steel mills, and the average price of Hunan secondary zinc oxide all show certain trends [48][49][50][51] 3.5 Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly downstream production rate has increased slightly, mostly at a historically low - to - medium level. The production rates and inventory levels of downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide all show certain characteristics [54][57] - The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [73] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity all show certain trends, which have an impact on the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries [75][76][77]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The report focuses on zinc, suggesting to pay attention to LME zinc inventory, and the zinc trend strength is neutral with a value of 0 [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,345 yuan/ton, up 1.57%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,019.5 dollars/ton, up 0.87%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 164,360 lots, an increase of 62,086 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 12,135 lots, an increase of 182 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 124,740 lots, a decrease of 7,952 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 221,889 lots, an increase of 300 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the premium of LME CASH - 3M was 338.74 dollars/ton, an increase of 43.74 dollars/ton. The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was -90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged. The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was -55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -5,664.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 247.52 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 65,529 tons, an increase of 320 tons; LME zinc inventory was 34,700 tons, a decrease of 600 tons. The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 9,850 tons, a decrease of 1,025 tons; the LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 11,581 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,183 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 22,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton [1] News - China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th, with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng leading the Chinese delegation [2] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five - Year Plan period and the goal of achieving significant leaps in economic, technological, national defense, comprehensive national strength and international influence by 2035 [2][3] Trend Strength - The zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices rose slightly, with a continued loss in domestic refined copper spot imports. Due to the US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets, the copper market is cautious. Copper prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - economic developments and the market's reaction to Fed rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated weakly, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina has weak support at the bottom and is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum is driven by both macro and micro factors, with strong overall momentum, and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum remains tight, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell, while SHFE nickel rose slightly. The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and macro - economic disturbances [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices rose, and domestic prices increased slightly. The US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets make the copper market cautious. Copper prices will likely oscillate within the current range in the short term. LME inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 521 tons to 314,341 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and BC copper remained at 12,965 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina oscillated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,814 yuan/ton, a 0.32% decline. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina's supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum has strong driving forces and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.46% to 15,140 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.03% to 121,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 402 tons to 250,878 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is stable, and the new energy industry chain has a tight raw material supply. Primary nickel inventory pressure is increasing, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 770 yuan/ton to 84,935 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.5 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,080 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warrants decreased by 3,156 tons to 24,977 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20,960 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanhai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 20,890 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 2,127 tons to 67,270 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.2 million tons to 62.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons, and social inventory increased by 4,014 tons to 47,708 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 21,990 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 16.29 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 280,940 yuan/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides historical data charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It shows historical data charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents historical data charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displays historical data charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Provides historical data charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Includes historical data charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate, closing with a doji star, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. In terms of positions, long positions slightly decreased while short positions increased, indicating a rebound on shrinking volume. The price rebounded but long - position holders exited to wait and see, while short - position holders continued to enter the market to suppress. In the short term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly. Technically, the price closed below the long - term moving average with weak support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and was operating in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with both long and short forces increasing, and the dominance of short forces narrowing. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc contract ZN2512 will fluctuate and rebound [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons [2]. 2. Basis Information - The spot price was 21,930 yuan, and the basis was - 70 yuan, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Information - On October 22, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons to 35,300 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,059 tons to 65,209 tons compared with the previous day [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On October 22, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 160,966 lots, with a total trading value of 1.77017246 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 229,833 lots, an increase of 299 lots [3]. 5. Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On October 22, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market showed different trends. For example, the price of zinc concentrate was 17,080 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots was 21,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets was 3,963 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes was 4,358 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From October 9 to October 20, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 136,200 tons to 162,900 tons. Compared with October 13, it increased by 9,400 tons; compared with October 16, it increased by 7,300 tons [5]. 7. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report - On October 22, the total zinc warrants on the futures exchange were 65,209 tons, a decrease of 1,059 tons compared with the previous day. Among them, the warrants in Guangdong were 37,874 tons (unchanged), in Jiangsu were 323 tons (a decrease of 99 tons), and in Tianjin were 27,012 tons (a decrease of 960 tons) [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 21, the total LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory in Singapore was 33,850 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons; the inventory in Port Klang was 1,325 tons (unchanged); the inventory in Hong Kong was 125 tons (unchanged) [8]. 9. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 22, the prices of zinc ingots from major domestic smelters all decreased by 40 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting was 22,170 yuan/ton, from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,600 yuan/ton, and from Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan was 21,900 yuan/ton [13]. 10. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The production was 1.35% lower than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.80%. The planned production in October was 509,600 tons [16]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 22, the processing fees for zinc concentrates in different regions showed different levels. For domestic zinc concentrates with a grade of 50%, the average processing fee in different regions ranged from 3,100 to 3,800 yuan/metal ton; for imported zinc concentrates with a grade of 48%, the average processing fee was 105 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 12. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2512 on October 22, the total trading volume of members was 160,980 lots, a decrease of 2,283 lots compared with the previous day; the total long positions were 88,461 lots, a decrease of 131 lots; the total short positions were 94,885 lots, an increase of 1,036 lots [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view is that the previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillate and rebound, with increased trading volume and both long and short positions increasing, more so for the long positions. The market may oscillate and weaken in the short term. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising in the weak area, the trend indicator is falling, the long - side strength is rising, the short - side strength is falling, and the dominance of the short - side is narrowing. It is recommended that Shanghai Zinc ZN2512 will oscillate and weaken [17]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1150700 tons, consumption was 1171700 tons, with a supply shortage of 21000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9088500 tons, consumption was 9369800 tons, with a supply shortage of 281300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1069600 tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8445700 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The basis is +10 with a spot price of 21980, which is neutral [2]. - On October 21, LME zinc inventory decreased by 50 tons to 37275 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 151 tons to 66268 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc oscillated and rebounded, closing below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing down, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Quotes - On October 21, for zinc futures, different delivery months had various price movements. For example, for the 2511 contract, the previous settlement was 21880, the opening price was 21895, the high was 22035, the low was 21870, the closing price was 21965, the settlement reference price was 21955, with an increase of 85 and 75 respectively, trading volume of 54001 lots, and turnover of 592882.08. There were also details for other contracts like 2512, 2601, etc. [3]. 3. Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On October 21, in the domestic spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17120 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; zinc ingot in Aoshi was 21980 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet in China was 3961 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe in Tiantian was 4360 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22490 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27270 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20500 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Lin 8 Xiaocun was 7790 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From October 9 to October 20, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 13.62 million tons to 16.29 million tons. Compared with October 13, it increased by 0.94 million tons, and compared with October 16, it increased by 0.73 million tons [5]. 5. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On October 21, the total zinc warehouse receipts in the futures exchange were 66268 tons, a decrease of 151 tons. In Shanghai, the total was 0 tons; in Guangdong, it was 37874 tons; in Jiangsu, it was 422 tons; in Zhejiang, it was 0 tons; and in Tianjin, it was 27972 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 21, the LME zinc inventory was 37275 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous day. The registered warrants were 24425 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 12850 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 34.47% [7]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On October 21, in major domestic cities, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, etc., all increased by 50 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 16820 to 17120 yuan/ton [8]. 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 21, for 0 zinc ingots with a purity of ≥99.995%, the prices of different brands such as Hunan Zhuzhou Juzhuan (Torch), Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry (Huzinc), etc., all increased by 70 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 21640 to 22640 yuan/ton [11]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 5068000 tons, the actual production was 4999000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%, a year - on - year increase of 16.13%, and a 1.35% shortfall compared to the plan. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production for October was 5096000 tons [13]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 21, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions such as FFF 3BF, Huludao, etc., showed different price ranges and changes. The import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 95 - 115 dollars/dry ton, with an average of 105 dollars/dry ton [15]. 11. SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2512 contract on October 21, in terms of trading volume, the top three were Guotai Junan with 35970 lots (an increase of 22065 lots), CITIC Futures with 30173 lots (a decrease of 2000 lots), and Dongzheng Futures with 21961 lots (an increase of 788 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 16101 lots (an increase of 1533 lots), Guoxin Futures with 7628 lots (an increase of 59 lots), and Dongzheng Futures with 6652 lots (an increase of 1099 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 21346 lots (an increase of 412 lots), Qiankun Futures with 10707 lots (a decrease of 623 lots), and Guotai Junan with 9335 lots (an increase of 471 lots) [16].