指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差：现货21880，基差+80；中性。 9月30日国内主要现货市场行情 3、库存：10月8日LME锌库存较上日增加50吨至38250吨，9月30日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少2043吨至57221吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下 ...

指标体系 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货21670，基差-130；偏空。 3、库存：9月29日LME锌库存较上日减少825吨至41950吨，9月29日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加1691吨至59264吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,2 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年9月28日 | 数据 | | --- | Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：供应端压力不减，去库拐点有待进一步确认 强弱分析：中性偏弱 本周锌锭出现去库 镀锌开工小幅回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端压力不减。当下进口锌精矿亏损不断扩大，对国产矿采购需求进一步提升， 国产矿TC承压；本周河南、广西地区企业恢复生产，10月江西、河南两家冶炼厂月中 存检修计划，但从最新排产数据来看，预计10月国内锌锭供应或继续增加，供应端压 力不减。 ◆ 消费端小幅改善，但相对有限。临近国庆假期，下游存在节前备库 ...

【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 09 月 26 日 锌：下方支撑 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 国 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22045 | 0.85% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2922.5 | 1.14% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 158280 | 48547 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10392 | 1957 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 131286 | -10581 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 217087 | 1804 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -55 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 40 | 0 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴 ...

沪锌期货早报-2025年9月25日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货21860，基差+0；中性。 3、库存：9月24日LME锌库存较上日减少1375吨至44400吨，9月24日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加744吨至57357吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc fluctuating and falling, closing with a negative line and shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with more short - position increases. The market may fluctuate and weaken in the short term. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing its support. Short - term indicators suggest a weak trend, and the bearish force is dominant. The recommendation is that Shanghai zinc ZN2511 will fluctuate and weaken [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The spot price of zinc was 21,920, with a basis of +75, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On September 23, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,559 tons to 56,613 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc fluctuated and fell, closing below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing downwards, showing a bearish sign [2]. - The main net position was long, and long positions increased, showing a bullish sign [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on September 23 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally showed a downward trend. For example, the contract 2510 had a settlement price of 21,995, opening at 22,095, and closing at 21,840, with a decline of 155. The trading volume of all contracts totaled 203,496 lots, and the trading value was 2.23400645 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market on September 23 - The prices of various zinc - related products decreased. Zinc concentrate in Lin had a price of 16,580 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; zinc ingots in Shanghai were 21,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; galvanized sheets in China were 4,042 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; galvanized pipes in China were 4,444 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,430 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27,150 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; and secondary zinc oxide in Lin remained unchanged at 7,875 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (September 11 - 22, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets on September 22 was 1.446 million tons. Compared with September 15, it decreased by 50,000 tons, and compared with September 18, it decreased by 37,000 tons [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on September 23 - The total zinc warrants in the futures exchange on September 23 were 56,613 tons, an increase of 1,559 tons. In Guangdong, warrants increased by 496 tons, and in Tianjin, they increased by 1,063 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on September 23 - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons. In Singapore, inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,625 tons [7]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on September 23 - Zinc concentrate prices in major cities decreased by 50 yuan/ton. For example, in Jiyuan, the price was 16,680 yuan/ton; in Kunming, it was also 16,680 yuan/ton [8]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on September 23 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters decreased by 70 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,150 yuan/ton; from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,480 yuan/ton [12]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned refined zinc production was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Market on September 23 - The processing fees for 50% zinc concentrate in different regions varied. For example, in Hohhot, the average processing fee was 3,900 yuan/metal ton; in Huizhou, it was 4,000 yuan/metal ton. The average import processing fee for 48% zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on September 23 - In the trading volume ranking of zinc contracts zn2511, CITIC Futures had the highest trading volume of 40,422 lots, a decrease of 4,691 lots compared with the previous trading day. In the long - position ranking, CITIC Futures had 10,220 lots, an increase of 1,842 lots. In the short - position ranking, CITIC Futures had 18,617 lots, an increase of 356 lots [17].

【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 09 月 24 日 锌：小幅回落 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 21845 | -1.11% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2900 | 0.05% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 125331 | -15195 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10805 | 938 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 140372 | 9947 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 216077 | 493 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -55 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 45.99 | -9.01 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年9月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货21990，基差-100；中性。 3、库存：9月22日LME锌库存较上日减少1000吨至46825吨，9月22日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加2523吨至55054吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡反弹走势，收20日均线之下, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows a neutral - weak strength analysis, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [2][3] - Domestic zinc supply is expected to increase. Although there is a slight improvement in consumption, it is relatively limited. The inventory accumulation trend may continue, and prices lack upward momentum. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [5] - The contradiction between domestic and foreign markets is prominent, with an increasingly obvious pattern of stronger foreign and weaker domestic zinc prices. There is an opportunity for the export window to open in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to hold short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions cautiously [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,045 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The night - session closing price was 21,905 yuan, down 0.64%. The LmeS - Zinc 3 last week closed at 2,898.5 dollars, down 1.95% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 77,398 lots, a decrease of 26,205 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 61,844 lots, a decrease of 35,853 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,867 lots, a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the open interest was 217,061 lots, an increase of 12,255 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE Zinc warrant inventory increased by 6,626 tons to 52,531 tons; total SHFE Zinc inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons; social inventory increased by 4,300 tons to 158,500 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - to - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits are stable at a medium - to - high historical level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a relatively low historical level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined, refined zinc operation rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates have increased but are still at a low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined slightly. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] - **Spread**: SHFE Zinc shows a C structure [20] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc inventory continues to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME zinc inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a medium - to - low level in the same period. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][34] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period [35] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level, import ore processing fees have continued to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have remained flat. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period [38][39] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [46][48] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Related data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operation rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste - steel daily consumption of steel mills are presented [51][52][53] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [57] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [60] - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters are presented [74][75][77]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc ore's domestic TC has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to increase, the low Shanghai-London ratio may significantly slow down the upward rate of the imported TC, alleviating the oversupply of zinc ore. China's zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the LME zinc ingot inventory overseas continues to decline, and the Shanghai-London ratio continues to weaken. On the early morning of September 18th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, cooling the sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will operate weakly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.01% at 22,049 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 236,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S fell 2 to $2,919/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 213,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 21,990 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis of -65 yuan/ton, Guangdong basis of -80 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong spread of 15 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, China's social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 158,500 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,500 tons, with an internal Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton and a spread of 5 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 48,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 17,500 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was $24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.51/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai-London ratio on the disk was 1.064, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,119.55 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 111 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 315,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 647,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 53.78%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.11%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the total zinc ore output was 2,080,500 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.27%. The net import of zinc ore in July was 501,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 37.8% and a month - on - month change of 52.0%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,034,800 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 46.2%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in July was 572,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 21.5%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 3,446,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.5% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In August 2025, the zinc ingot output was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 28.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.9%. From January to August, the total zinc ingot output was 4,469,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.5%. The net import of zinc ingots in July was 20,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.6% and a month - on - month change of -46.8%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 216,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -15.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in July was 623,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 22.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,059,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.4% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 53.78%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.11%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In July 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 595,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.0% and a month - on - month change of -2.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 3,971,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 27,200 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 88,200 tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of -42,600 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 7,000 tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, China's social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 158,500 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,500 tons, with an internal Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton and a spread of 5 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 48,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 17,500 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was $24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.51/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai-London ratio on the disk was 1.064, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,119.55 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased slightly, the net long position of investment funds in London zinc increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral [70].