国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 锌产业链周度报告 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：中东紧张局势升级，关注资金情绪助推 强弱分析：中性偏强 国内库存累库 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 镀锌开工回升 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 加工费筑底，供应转向宽松。国产矿TC集中在1100-1600/金属吨，已有筑底之势， 但进口矿TC继续走低，集中在30美元/干吨以下。国内炼厂面临进口TC与沪伦比值双 低的压力，进口矿冶炼亏损仍然较大，进口矿交易不确定性增加，但考虑3-4月为国 产锌矿集中复产期，后续锌矿供给预计转向宽松。此外，参考百川盈孚最新排产数据， 3月份锌冶炼厂排产环比增 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report focuses on zinc, with a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral view. It also presents news about Iran nuclear - related negotiations and the market's reaction to Nvidia's earnings [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 24,570 yuan/ton, down 0.57%; LME zinc 3M electronic trading closed at 3,387 dollars/ton, down 0.01%. SHFE zinc main contract trading volume was 94,374 lots, an increase of 10,354 lots; LME zinc trading volume was 9,705 lots, a decrease of 4 lots [1]. - **Position and Premium**: SHFE zinc main contract open interest was 92,762 lots, an increase of 3,278 lots; LME zinc open interest was 229,485 lots, a decrease of 782 lots. Shanghai 0 zinc premium was - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 29.64 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.29 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 65,572 tons, an increase of 253 tons; LME zinc inventory was 98,400 tons, a decrease of 1,425 tons. LME zinc cancelled warrants were 7,500 tons, a decrease of 1,825 tons [1]. - **Related Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,013 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 25,710 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 25,135 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 23,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1]. 2. News - **Iran Nuclear Negotiation**: Iran's foreign minister said that the two sides are close to reaching a consensus in some areas, and technical negotiations will be held in Vienna next Monday. The Omani foreign minister said the negotiations have "made significant progress", but media reported that there are still large differences between the two sides [2]. - **Nvidia's Earnings**: Nvidia has exceeded revenue expectations for 14 consecutive quarters, but the market is concerned about the sustainability of AI demand and Nvidia's supply constraints. Its other business segments underperformed despite strong growth in the data center business [2][3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

锌：跟随宏观波动 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2026 年 02 月 13 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 24670 | 0.12% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3418 | 0.59% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 63473 | 20594 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10803 | 2795 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 82084 | 3215 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 227792 | -7690 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -30 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -17.8 | 1.75 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：现实面不弱，价格相对抗跌 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 供应侧减量持续。当下国产矿TC集中在1100-1600/金属吨，进口矿TC小幅下调，集 中30-50美元/干吨，原料库存充裕下，预计后续加工费底部企稳；根据百川盈孚初步 统计，2月冶炼排产环比下降5.68万吨左右，主要为云南、广西、内蒙古、四川和湖 南等地小厂春节停产放假减量，供应减量下节前累库或低于预期。 ◆ 需求侧淡季明显。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金开工环比下滑，节前订单不及预期，市 场对于高价货源接受程度有限。各行业整体放假节点较往年明显提前，部分企业已经 提前停产并进入假期 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new bond king, Gundlach, believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates before Powell's term ends. He bets there won't be further rate - cuts during Powell's tenure, while the market expects two 25 - basis - point cuts by the end of 2026. He also suggests allocating 30% - 40% to unhedged international stocks [2]. - During the UK Prime Minister Starmer's visit to China, China and the UK reached a series of positive outcomes, including developing a comprehensive strategic partnership, establishing a high - level climate and nature partnership, resuming high - level security dialogue, and holding mechanism - based dialogues. China is considering unilateral visa - free policies for UK citizens and reducing the import tariff on whisky from 10% to 5% [2][3]. - The trend strength of zinc is 1, indicating a relatively positive but not extremely strong trend [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Zinc Fundamentals - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 25,950 yuan/ton, up 1.35% from the previous day, and the LME 3M zinc electronic trading closed at $3,375.5/ton, up 0.51% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 329,041 lots, an increase of 44,544 lots; its open interest was 114,501 lots, a decrease of 3,698 lots. The LME zinc trading volume was 14,007 lots, an increase of 2,658 lots, and its open interest was 234,070 lots, an increase of 913 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 0 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The LME CASH - 3M spread was -$32.06/ton, down $1.25/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 28,341 tons, an increase of 29 tons, while the LME zinc inventory was 110,375 tons, a decrease of 175 tons [1]. - **Related Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4053 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 26,540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 25,965 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) was 23,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The volatility of zinc has increased, and the bullish sentiment has risen and then fallen, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - Supply - side disturbances have increased. Geopolitical risks in Iran and heavy rain in Australia have affected the stability of zinc ore supply. The TC upward space this year may be lower than last year, and zinc prices have a certain upward elasticity. In the short - term, if the capital rotation trading of non - ferrous metals ends, zinc prices may have a phased adjustment, but the downside space is relatively limited. Pay attention to mid - term opportunities to try long on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,750, with a weekly increase of 3.25%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,405, with a night - session decline of 1.39%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,207.5, with a weekly increase of 1.86% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 368,615, an increase of 225,388 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 142,274, an increase of 65,641. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,389, an increase of 5,157, and the open interest was 228,263, a decrease of 5,388 [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 5,316 to 33,558, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,459 to 76,311, social inventory decreased by 100 to 118,400, LME zinc inventory decreased by 925 to 106,525, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have increased, while zinc ingot visible inventories have remained stable [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical low. Mine enterprise profits have recovered and are at a historical high, smelting profits have recovered but are still at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable and are at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operating Rate**: The smelting operating rate has continued to decline, and the downstream operating rate is at a medium - low level in history. Zinc concentrate, refined zinc, galvanized, die - cast zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have all declined [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot Premium**: The spot premium has fluctuated and declined. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation, with Singapore's remaining stable, Antwerp's rising, and LME CASH - 3M falling from a high and turning to a C structure [18][23]. - **Price Spread**: The C structure of SHFE zinc has flattened [25]. - **Inventory**: There has been a slight inventory reduction this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, the total LME inventory has remained relatively stable, the注销仓单 ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low, the bonded area inventory has remained unchanged this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [30][36][38]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level in the same period in history [39]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has remained stable. The arrival volume of zinc ore is at a medium level, and the smelter's raw material inventory has increased [42][43]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. The smelter's finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [49][50]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on the operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the waste steel consumption of 147 steel mills, and the average price of Hunan secondary zinc oxide is provided [53][54][55][56]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The monthly downstream operating rate has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history [63]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [74]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Information on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, power prices in various European countries, and the profitability of zinc smelters in various European countries is provided [76][77][78][79].

Report Core View Bullish Factors - The losses of smelters have widened, and the supply pressure has significantly decreased month-on-month, which is bullish [3]. - Although the import window is closed, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has been repaired, which is bullish [3]. Bearish Factors - The import volume of zinc ore has declined, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, which may lead to production cuts, which is bearish [3]. - The LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, indicating a loose global supply, which is bearish [3]. Trading Advice - It is advisable to wait and see. The ratio of futures to spot has rebounded, and the export window may close again, so caution is needed [3]. Grouped Summaries Processing and End - demand - Included data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, weekly output, net exports of galvanized sheets, net imports of die - cast zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets and zinc oxide, real estate development investment, sales and land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [4][7][10] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Included data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrate, zinc concentrate TC, monthly zinc ingot production, production profit and processing fee of refined zinc enterprises, raw material inventory days, and zinc inventory in exchanges [18][20][21] Futures and Spot Market Review - Included data on the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc price and the US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and the basis of zinc ingots [27][28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc is strongly priced by macro factors, and its price is likely to rise rather than fall. It is rated as neutral to strong in terms of strength analysis [2][6]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices, and the expansion of consumption space determines the upside potential of prices. In the short - term, under the influence of strong market sentiment and geopolitical conflicts, the risk premium of non - ferrous metals has increased significantly, and zinc prices are difficult to weaken under the strong macro - pricing logic [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last week was 23,970, with a weekly increase of 2.99%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,149, with a weekly increase of 0.70% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 143,227, a decrease of 11,716 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 76,633, a decrease of 9,946. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 15,979, an increase of 8,265, and the open interest was 233,998, an increase of 3,770 [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic inventories showed a slight accumulation. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,946, while the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 4,059. The social inventory increased by 12,400, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,125. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The import zinc ore processing fee decreased by 6 to 38 dollars/ton, and the domestic zinc ore processing fee remained stable at 1,500 yuan/ton. The import zinc ore smelting profit increased by 2,921 to 38 yuan/ton, and the domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 200 to - 1,554 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Mine enterprise profits have rebounded to a medium - high level in history, smelting profits have rebounded but are still at a low level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Production Capacity Utilization**: Zinc smelting production capacity utilization has continued to decline, and downstream production capacity utilization is at a medium - low level in history. Zinc concentrate production capacity utilization has declined to a medium level in the same period, refined zinc production capacity utilization has declined to a medium level in the same period, and downstream galvanizing production capacity utilization has increased, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide production capacity utilization have declined to a medium - low level [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have fluctuated strongly. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the premium in Singapore remaining stable, and the premium in Antwerp rebounding. The LME CASH - 3M has fallen from a high level and turned into a C structure [18][19]. - **Price Spreads**: The C structure of SHFE zinc has widened [21]. - **Inventory**: This week, there has been a slight reduction in inventory, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has decreased. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in the Singapore region, with a significant increase in total LME inventories. The ratio of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [26][32][34]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has remained stable. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and the smelter raw material inventory has rebounded [38][39]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has declined to a medium level in the same period in history. The smelter finished product inventory has rebounded to a high level in the same period in history, and the zinc alloy production is at a high level [45][46]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: No comprehensive summary information is available. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [55]. - **Downstream**: The monthly production capacity utilization of downstream industries has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history. The raw material and finished product inventories of downstream industries show different changes [58][60][65]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [72]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon allowances, and electricity in different countries show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different European countries also varies [74][75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state of complex supply - demand dynamics. The overseas short - squeeze in the zinc market has ended, and the domestic destocking pace will slow down. In the short term, prices may enter a period of consolidation. In the long run, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices, and the expansion of consumption space will determine the upside potential of prices. With the end of the zinc mine expansion cycle, a tight balance in the zinc mine market may become the norm next year, and zinc prices have the potential to rise. Investors are advised to pay attention to the upper price pressure in the short term and mid - term opportunities to buy on dips [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc's main contract last week was 23,275, with a weekly increase of 0.19%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was also 23,275, with a night - session increase of 0.00%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 3,127, with an increase of 1.31% [6][7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc's main contract last Friday was 154,943 lots, a decrease of 16,575 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 86,579 lots, a decrease of 8,618 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 13,418 lots, an increase of 7,474 lots, and the open interest was 228,130 lots, an increase of 1,079 lots [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. The inventory of zinc ore, smelter finished products, and zinc ingots has shown a downward trend, while the total global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [9][36]. - **Profit**: Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Zinc mine enterprise profits have rebounded to a medium - high historical level, smelting profits have rebounded to a historical median level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a medium - low level compared to the same period [11][12]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization is at a medium - low historical level. Zinc concentrate and refined zinc capacity utilization have declined to a medium level compared to the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide capacity utilization have shown mixed trends, generally at a medium - low historical level [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have fluctuated. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation, with the Singapore premium remaining stable, and the LME CASH - 3M has declined from a high level and changed to a Contango structure [17][18]. - **Spread**: The Contango structure of SHFE Zinc has flattened [20]. - **Inventory**: There has been a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore region, with a significant increase in total LME inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low level. The bonded - area inventory has remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [28][34][36]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level compared to the same period in history [37]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has decreased significantly. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a low level, and smelter raw material inventories have increased [40][41]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [47][48]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on recycled zinc raw materials mainly includes the operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag in Tianjin, and the daily consumption of scrap steel by 147 steel mills [51][52][53]. 3.5 Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly capacity utilization of downstream industries has slightly increased, mostly at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history. The raw material and finished product inventories of downstream industries show different trends [59][62]. - **End - Users**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [76]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity, as well as the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries, are presented, but no specific trends or conclusions are drawn in the summary [77][78][79].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Research Group: Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] - Chief Analyst: Ji Xianfei [1] - Contact Person: Wang Zongyuan [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Zinc prices are in a short - term tangled consolidation phase with a neutral strength - weakness analysis [2]. - Domestic supply is gradually resuming production, while demand is seasonally declining. The overseas short - squeeze has ended, and the domestic inventory reduction pace may slow down. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will dominate prices, and there is potential for zinc prices to rise. Consider buying on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last week was 23,170, with a weekly increase of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 23,215, with a night - session increase of 0.19%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3086.5, with a weekly increase of 0.28% [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 145,708, an increase of 82,086 from the previous week, and the open interest was 97,425, an increase of 50,616. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 7,997, a decrease of 497, and the open interest was 229,088, an increase of 1,627 [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory decreased by 3,103 to 42,075; SHFE total inventory decreased by 3,054 to 72,963; social inventory decreased by 7,500 to 114,700; LME zinc inventory increased by 6,975 to 106,875; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore, smelter finished product inventories are falling from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories are decreasing [8]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are rising and are at a medium - to - high historical level; smelting profits are rising and at a historical median; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period [10][11]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization is at a medium - to - low historical level. Zinc concentrate and refined zinc capacity utilization rates have declined and are at a medium level compared to the same period; downstream galvanizing, zinc die - casting, and zinc oxide capacity utilization rates have increased but are at a medium - to - low historical level [12][13]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin are oscillating. Overseas premiums are differentiated this week, with the Singapore premium stable, and the LME CASH - 3M has fallen from a high level and changed to a C structure [16][17]. - **Spread**: The SHFE zinc C structure has flattened [19]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight inventory reduction this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total inventory. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancelled - warrant ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [27][32][34]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level compared to the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly. Ore arrivals at ports are at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [38][39]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level compared to the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [45][46]. - **Imports and Exports**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The downstream monthly capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history [51][54]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The downstream monthly capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history [51][54]. - **Downstream Industries**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [70]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices in Europe are presented, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different European countries is also shown [72][75].