Report Title - Zinc Industry Weekly Report, dated March 27, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: Domestic consumption is gradually picking up, spot transactions are improving, social inventories are showing signs of reduction, and the market is gradually digesting negative news. LME zinc inventories remain at a low level, and low overseas inventories provide some support for zinc prices [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Zinc social inventories continue to rise to a high level, and the high inventory pressure drags down the Shanghai zinc price. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is at a high level and increased week-on-week this week. High inventories on the supply side still suppress zinc prices [3]. - **Trading Consultation Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, and the market is highly cautious. It is recommended to pay attention to future trends [3]. Summary by Directory Processing and End - User Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: Data on market sentiment index, weekly inventory, steel mill production, net exports, and net imports of die - cast zinc alloy are presented, sourced from Wind [4]. - **Other Products**: Data on net exports of color - coated sheets (strips), zinc oxide, real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, unsold area, land transaction area, and commercial housing transaction volume are provided, all sourced from Wind [7][10][12][14]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Data on the completion of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) are shown, sourced from Wind [15]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Data on monthly import volume, weekly processing fees of imported and domestic zinc concentrates, and raw material inventory days are presented, sourced from Wind [18][20][24]. - **Zinc Ingot Production**: Data on monthly production, production plus imports, and production profits of refined zinc enterprises are provided, sourced from Wind [21][22]. - **Inventory**: Data on LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory are shown, sourced from Wind [24][25]. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Price Trends**: Data on the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, and the premium and discount of LME zinc are presented, sourced from Wind [27][29][31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on the trading volume, open interest, and closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract are provided, sourced from Wind [28]. - **Basis**: Data on the basis trends of zinc ingots in three regions and the seasonal basis of Tianjin zinc ingots are shown, sourced from Wind and SMM,南华研究 [33][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc futures are weak this week. It is recommended that investors mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to the rhythm of inventory reduction [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Processing and Terminal Demand - Galvanized coil: Market sentiment index (weekly) data is presented [4] - Galvanized coil weekly inventory - seasonal data shows inventory levels from 2022 - 2026 [4] - Steel mill galvanized coil weekly production - seasonal data shows production levels from 2022 - 2026 [4] - Galvanized sheet (strip) net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [6] - Die - cast zinc alloy net import seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [6] - Color - coated sheet (strip) net export seasonal data is presented [8] - Zinc oxide net export seasonal data is presented [8] - Real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data is provided [11] - Sales area cumulative year - on - year and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data is provided [13] - 100 large - and medium - sized cities: Transaction land floor area: Weekly value seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [15] - 30 large - and medium - sized cities' commercial housing transaction volume seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [15] - Infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion data is presented [16] 3.2 Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Zinc concentrate monthly import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [19] - SMM import and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [21] - SMM zinc ingot monthly production seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [22] - Refined zinc enterprise production profit and processing fees data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [22] - China zinc ingot monthly production + import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [23] - Zinc concentrate raw material inventory days data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [25] - LME zinc inventory total seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [25] - SHFE zinc this week's inventory futures seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [26] - Exchange zinc ingot inventory data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [26] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market Review - Domestic and foreign zinc price trends are presented from 2024 - 2025 [28] - Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume, holding volume and closing price data from 2024 - 2025 are provided [29] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [30] - LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread data from 2023 - 2025 is provided [32] - LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread seasonal data is presented [33] - Zinc ingot three - place basis trends data from 2023 - 2025 is provided [34] - Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonal data is provided [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has fundamental support at the bottom, but risks are still brewing, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis [2]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. The zinc ore is at the end of the expansion cycle, and the zinc ore tight - balance may become the norm. The TC operation center is expected to decline this year, and the zinc price operation center is expected to rise [3]. - Currently, the zinc price has basically priced in previous disturbances. If the tense situation in the Middle East persists, the possibility of the market shifting to recession trading increases, and risks in the non - ferrous sector are still brewing. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips and mid - term internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,935, with a weekly decline of 4.99%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,860, with a night - session decline of 0.33%. The LmeS - zinc3 closed at 3056 last week, with a weekly decline of 7.21% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 159,743, an increase of 73,802 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 106,130, an increase of 30,939. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,533, an increase of 9,477, and the open interest was 208,190, a decrease of 7,216 [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 102,509, an increase of 16,416; SHFE total zinc inventory was 152,266, an increase of 4,918; social inventory was 266,100, a decrease of 2,700; LME zinc inventory was 117,675, an increase of 19,775; bonded - area inventory was 3,300, unchanged [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories are at high levels, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [8]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Zinc concentrate enterprise production profits are stable and at historical highs, refining zinc enterprise production profits are stable and at historical lows, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at the same - period low [10][11]. - **Operating Rate**: Zinc concentrate and refining zinc operating rates have declined and are at historical lows in the same period. Downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have increased but are at medium - low levels in history [12][13]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have rebounded. Overseas premiums are differentiated this week, with Singapore and Antwerp premiums remaining flat, and LME CASH - 3M rising [16][18]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc has strengthened [21]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight de - stocking this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, LME total inventory has increased, the CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancellation warrant ratio has decreased to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained flat this week, and global zinc visible inventory has rebounded significantly [24][30][32]. - **Futures**: The domestic long - position volume is at the median of the historical same period [33]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level in the same period, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have remained stable. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory has rebounded from a low level [36][37]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at the median of the historical same period. Smelter finished - product inventory has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a medium level [38]. - **Imports and Exports**: The refined zinc import profit and loss, import volume, and export volume are presented in the report, and the refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive [40][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly operating rates have declined slightly and are mostly at historical lows in the same period. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also presented in the report [46][50]. - **End - Users**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity, as well as the profit and loss of zinc smelters in some European countries, are presented in the report [63][64][66].

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Short-term zinc prices are under pressure. The high-interest rate environment on the macro side suppresses the overall valuation of non-ferrous metals. Domestically, inventory accumulation combined with weak demand in the off-season gives short-term prices downward momentum. However, there is still support from the upstream raw material side, and the continuous decline in LME inventories indicates a marginal tightening of overseas supply. Thus, the downside space should not be overly underestimated, and short-term prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - On March 18, 2026, the opening price of the main contract of SHFE zinc 2604 was 23,650 yuan/ton, the highest price was 23,665 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 23,260 yuan/ton, the previous trading day's settlement price was 23,870 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 23,325 yuan/ton, a decline of 545 yuan/ton or 2.28% from the previous trading day's settlement price [2] 3.2 Spot Market Basis Analysis - In terms of regional spot prices, the lowest price of 1 zinc in Guangdong is 22,830 yuan/ton and the highest is 23,130 yuan/ton; the lowest price of 0 zinc in Guangdong is 22,890 yuan/ton and the highest is 23,210 yuan/ton; the lowest price of 0 zinc in Tianjin is 23,140 yuan/ton and the highest is 23,090 yuan/ton; the lowest price of 0 zinc in Beijing is 23,180 yuan/ton and the highest is 23,190 yuan/ton; the price range of 1 zinc in Chongqing is 23,180 - 23,180 yuan/ton. The regional price differences reflect relatively higher spot supply pressure in South China [3] 3.3 Market Dynamics - **Zinc Oxide Sector**: On March 18, 2026, the average market price of zinc oxide produced from zinc ingots was 22,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton or 2.63% from the previous trading day. The average price of zinc oxide produced from zinc slag was 20,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to the high raw material costs in the early stage, the profit of the zinc oxide industry is currently squeezed. It is expected that the ex-factory price will remain stable within the week, with stable demand in the downstream rubber sector and mainly replenishing inventory as needed [4] - **Zinc Sulfate Sector**: On March 18, 2026, the price of zinc sulfate remained stable overall. The mainstream transaction price of monohydrate zinc sulfate (high - chlorine) was 7,300 - 7,400 yuan/ton, monohydrate zinc sulfate (low - chlorine) was 7,450 - 7,650 yuan/ton, 96% heptahydrate zinc sulfate was 4,200 - 4,350 yuan/ton, and 99% heptahydrate zinc sulfate was 4,400 - 4,800 yuan/ton. Current export orders of enterprises are good, domestic sales demand is differentiated, and the high - chlorine monohydrate zinc sulfate has smooth sales. It is expected that the price will remain high in the short term [4][5] 3.4 Market Outlook - Short - term zinc prices are under pressure. The high - interest rate macro - environment suppresses the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals. Domestically, inventory accumulation and weak demand in the off - season give short - term prices downward momentum. However, there is still support from the upstream raw material side, and the continuous decline in LME inventories indicates a marginal tightening of overseas supply. The downside space should not be overly underestimated, and short - term prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [6]

Report Overview - The report mainly focuses on the zinc market, including its fundamentals, related news, and trend strength [1][2][3] 1. Zinc Market Fundamentals - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23,700 yuan/ton, down 0.86%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3,279 dollars/ton, down 0.44%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 81,736 lots, a decrease of 27,250 lots, and the LME Zinc trading volume was 7,502 lots, an increase of 446 lots [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 98,670 tons, an increase of 574 tons, and LME Zinc inventory was 118,375 tons, an increase of 20,875 tons. The LME Zinc cancelled warrants were 6,150 tons, a decrease of 550 tons [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was -115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was -43.25 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.62 dollars/ton [1] 2. News - **Geopolitical News**: Trump said the US should consider withdrawing from NATO, was disappointed with NATO, and was not satisfied with the current situation. The US is not ready to end the conflict with Iran but will leave in the near future [2] - **Industry News**: At the NVIDIA GTC conference, it was signaled that the business logic of AI computing power is fundamentally restructuring, with Token becoming a new commodity and computing power equal to revenue. The Blackwell system has reduced the cost per Token by up to 35 times compared to the previous generation, and the upcoming Rubin series is expected to further reduce it by 2 to 35 times [2][3] 3. Trend Strength - The zinc trend strength is -1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Volatile [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, zinc downstream exports still have resilience, but may face pressure in the medium - term. Most manufacturers are cautiously optimistic about the future market. It is necessary to monitor whether regions like Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Australia can fill the demand gap after the shrinkage of Middle - East orders due to geopolitical disturbances and the release of postponed demand from last year's policy. In the long - term, the cash - flow of companies exporting to the Middle East may face pressure in the second quarter, and anti - dumping measures will affect export orders in the medium - to - long term. Overall, the possibility of weak or pressured export demand is increasing. [3][35] - In terms of trading strategies, for single - side trading, manage positions well in the short - term and focus on buying opportunities during corrections in the medium - term. For arbitrage trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach for monthly spreads and maintain a long domestic - short overseas positive arbitrage strategy in the medium - term. [3][38] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Research Objects - The research was conducted on galvanizing and zinc oxide enterprises in Weifang and Zibo, Shandong. These enterprises are large - to - medium - sized, with annual galvanized product output of 20 - 290 million tons and annual zinc oxide production capacity of 3 - 10 million tons, comprehensively reflecting the current demand evolution pattern. [12] 3.2. Core Research Conclusions and Analysis - Galvanized and color - coated exports are mainly for civil construction, and overseas requirements for zinc coating thickness are becoming stricter. Overseas markets mainly use zinc products for civil construction, and many countries have set requirements for zinc coating thickness. In contrast, domestic zinc coating thickness is generally lower. Export galvanized products have maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, and the actual zinc consumption per unit may have increased. [17][18] - Orders for large, medium, and small factories are differentiated, and raw material inventories are generally low. Medium - and large - sized enterprises maintain full production with stable orders, while some export - oriented enterprises have over one - month order backlogs but with year - on - year differences. Some orders postponed from last year were released in Q1 2026. Manufacturers are cautious about Q2 demand, and raw material inventories are low, indicating potential upward pressure on zinc and black metal prices. [20] - The probability of export shocks is increasing, with dual pressures from geopolitical conflicts and anti - dumping. The US - Iran conflict has negatively affected exports to the Middle East, with difficulties in customer communication, delayed shipments, and inventory backlogs. Rising freight costs and anti - dumping measures have also impacted exports. However, export orders to Europe, the US, Japan, and South Korea have increased recently. [24][25] - The zinc oxide industry is facing intensified competition, and it is difficult to find a blue ocean overseas. The industry suffers from raw material shortages, thin profits, and is highly affected by zinc price fluctuations, forcing enterprises to expand overseas. But overseas markets are also competitive, with only Indonesia having some room. The domestic capacity expansion willingness is low, and if the raw material shortage persists, the industry will face reshuffling. [28][32] 3.3. Summary and Outlook - In the short - term, zinc downstream exports can maintain some resilience, but medium - term pressure signals are emerging. The cash - flow of companies exporting to the Middle East may face slight pressure in the next quarter, and anti - dumping measures will affect export orders in the medium - to - long term. It is necessary to monitor whether overseas markets can accept price increases due to policies. [35] - Fundamentally, short - term domestic processing fees are rising seasonally, while import processing fees are under pressure. The supply of zinc concentrate remains tight. On the demand side, domestic social inventories have accumulated seasonally, and downstream resumption of work is slow, while overseas inventories are gradually decreasing. [36] - In terms of trading, zinc may enter a volatile adjustment period in the short - term. In the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips as geopolitical situations may strengthen the resource attribute of zinc concentrate. [38] 3.4. Research Minutes 3.4.1. Galvanizing Enterprise A - Basic situation: Mainly produces galvanized products, almost all for export. It has 4 production lines and plans to launch a new aluminized zinc line this year. The export market is mainly in Africa, Southeast Asia, South America, and the Middle East, and products are used for civil construction. [43] - Research situation: Operating at full capacity, with order backlogs of over one - and - a - half months. The new aluminized zinc line is in response to overseas demand. Some export orders are delayed due to rising freight costs. The impact of the "buy - order export" policy has basically been eliminated. Near - term orders are expected to be good, but long - term uncertainty is high. Raw materials are mainly sourced from Chihong and Huxin, with a half - month inventory. Profits are thin, and there is little hedging. [44][45][49] 3.4.2. Galvanizing Enterprise B - Basic situation: Produces aluminized zinc and galvanized plates, with 80 - 90% of products for export. It has 3 production lines, with one planned for renovation in 2025. [52] - Research situation: Currently operating two production lines, with order backlogs of 40 - 50 days. Orders have declined compared to last year due to the "buy - order export" policy but are expected to recover. Cautious about Q2 demand. Zinc ingots are mainly sourced from Tianjin and Hebei, and the aluminized zinc profit is higher. Raw material inventory is about 50 - 60 tons, and finished product inventory is about 20,000 tons. [53][54] 3.4.3. Galvanizing and Color - Coating Enterprise C - Basic situation: Produces galvanized, aluminized zinc, zinc - aluminum - magnesium, color - coated, and cold - rolled products. It has large - scale production capacity, and the terminal consumption includes various fields. The export market includes multiple regions, and the recent Middle - East exports are affected. [56] - Research situation: Operating at full capacity, with products mainly for domestic sales. Orders are stable, and the company expects good demand this year. Raw materials are mainly self - produced, and the long - term order ratio is high. Profits are stable, with raw material inventory of 7 - 80,000 tons. Not participating in hedging but concerned about the futures market. [57][58][62] 3.4.4. Galvanizing Enterprise D - Basic situation: Produces galvanized and aluminized zinc products, all for export. It has a galvanizing and an aluminized zinc line, with the aluminized zinc order decreasing in recent years. [65] - Research situation: Order backlogs are 30 - 35 days, a decrease compared to last year. The "buy - order export" policy has little impact. Raw materials are mainly Chihong zinc, and profits are decreasing year by year. There is pressure on short - term cash - flow, and no inventory is maintained. Not participating in hedging. [66][67][68] 3.4.5. Zinc Oxide Enterprise E - Basic situation: A private enterprise with an annual zinc oxide production capacity of 100,000 tons. It has invested in a project in Cambodia and may build a plant in Egypt in the future. The domestic zinc oxide industry is highly competitive, and raw material prices are rising. [70] - Research situation: Operating at full capacity, with an order cycle of about one week. Zinc ingots and zinc slag each account for about 50% of raw materials. Profits are mainly affected by zinc ingots, and the finished product inventory is about 1,000 tons. Not participating in hedging, and the environmental protection is in line with the standards. [71][73] 3.4.6. Resource Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise F - Basic situation: A solid waste and hazardous waste recycling enterprise, mainly for the rubber and tire industries. It has waste treatment capacity and produces zinc alloy and other products. The regeneration - to - primary zinc ratio is about 7:3, and the export demand for zinc powder in zinc - manganese batteries may increase. [74][75] - Research situation: Order backlogs are about one month, and orders are stable. Raw materials are mainly secondary zinc oxide, and the long - term order ratio is about 80%. Profits are thin, with raw material inventory of about 50 - 60 tons and finished product inventory of about 20,000 tons. Not participating in hedging, and the environmental protection pressure is controllable. [76][77][79] 3.4.7. Zinc Oxide Enterprise G - Basic situation: With an annual zinc oxide production capacity of 60,000 tons, the downstream is mainly tire enterprises. It believes that the industry is highly competitive and plans to expand in Indonesia. [81] - Research situation: Operating at full capacity. The long - term tire demand is weak, and domestic production cuts may become a trend. Raw materials are purchased flexibly, and there are no long - term orders. Profits are continuously compressed, with a hedging ratio of about 50 - 60%. The environmental protection pressure is relatively small. [82][83][86] 3.4.8. Zinc Oxide Enterprise H - Basic situation: Mainly produces nano - zinc oxide, mainly for rubber tires and feed additives. It has the capacity to produce high - end products but has low order - taking willingness. The parent company has sulfuric acid production capacity. It has no plan to expand overseas. [87] - Research situation: Operating at full capacity, with order backlogs of 1 - 2 months. Profits are under pressure, and it is cautious about the short - term market but optimistic about the long - term rubber - grade zinc oxide demand. Raw materials are mainly from Hebei, and there is no hedging. The environmental protection meets the standards. [88][89][90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is rated as neutral to weak, with unexpected inventory accumulation in China and a slow recovery in downstream consumption [2][3][5] - In the short - term, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the inventory inflection point has not appeared. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices, with the TC operation center expected to decline and the zinc price operation center expected to rise [5] - If the tense situation in the Middle East persists, the possibility of the market shifting to recession trading increases, and risks in the non - ferrous sector are brewing. Attention should be paid to medium - term internal and external positive arbitrage opportunities [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,140 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.49%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 was 3,293.5 US dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.89% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 85,941 lots, a decrease of 47,394 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 75,191 lots, a decrease of 10,125 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 9,416 lots, a decrease of 6,833 lots, and the open interest was 216,509 lots, a decrease of 2,689 lots [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 9,643 tons to 86,093 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 12,427 tons to 147,348 tons. Social inventory increased by 12,500 tons to 268,800 tons. LME zinc inventory increased by 2,925 tons to 97,900 tons, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories are at a high level, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at a historical low. Zinc ore enterprise profits are stable and at a historical high, smelting profits are stable and at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at a low level compared with the same period [11][12] - **Capacity Utilization**: Zinc concentrate and refined zinc capacity utilization rates have declined and are at a low level compared with the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide capacity utilization rates have increased but are at a medium - low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined. Overseas premiums are differentiated, with the Singapore premium remaining flat, the Antwerp premium rising, and the LME CASH - 3M declining [17][19] - **Spread**: The contango structure of SHFE zinc has widened [21] - **Inventory**: There has been a significant inventory accumulation this week, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a slight increase in total inventory. The注销仓单 ratio has decreased and returned to a historical low level. Bonded area inventory remained unchanged this week, and global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [24][30][32] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - low level compared with the same period in history [33] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level compared with the same period, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have remained stable. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory has rebounded from a low level [36][37] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared with the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level compared with the same period in history. Zinc alloy output is at a medium level [38] - **Imports and Exports**: Refined zinc import volume and export volume data are provided, and refined zinc import profits and losses are also presented [40] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the average price of secondary zinc oxide, and the daily consumption of scrap steel by steel mills are provided [42] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [46] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of downstream industries has declined slightly and is mostly at a low level compared with the same period in history [50] - **Downstream Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: Data on downstream raw material and finished product inventories are provided [52][55] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, European electricity prices, and zinc smelter profits and losses in European countries are provided [63][64][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state where the supply - side contradiction will continue to dominate prices. The zinc ore expansion cycle is at its end, with global zinc ore production growth slowing down. The most relaxed stage of zinc ore supply has passed, and a tight - balance state may become the norm. In the short - term, the fundamentals are under pressure, but downstream demand is gradually recovering. The Middle East tension has increased zinc price volatility, and there may be mid - term internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,260, with a weekly decline of 1.82%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,330, with a night - session increase of 0.29%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,323, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 133,335, an increase of 28,787 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 85,316, a decrease of 9,558 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 11,823, an increase of 1,481 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 222,533, a decrease of 3,899 compared to the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 76,450, an increase of 6,785 compared to the previous week; SHFE total zinc inventory was 134,921, an increase of 8,869 compared to the previous week; social inventory was 256,300, an increase of 36,400 compared to the previous week; LME zinc inventory was 94,975, a decrease of 2,375 compared to the previous week; bonded - area inventory was 3,300, unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories are at a high level, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [9]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore mining enterprises' profits are stable and at a historical high, smelting profits are stable but at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are recovering but at a low level compared to the same period [11][12]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has increased and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Refined zinc capacity utilization has increased and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide capacity utilization have increased but are at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined. Overseas premiums are differentiated, with Singapore and Antwerp premiums remaining flat, and LME CASH - 3M declining [17][19]. - **Spread**: The contango structure of SHFE zinc has widened [22]. - **Inventory**: There has been a significant inventory build - up this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with total LME inventory continuously decreasing, and the cancelled - warrant ratio has declined to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained flat this week, and global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [26][32][34]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level compared to the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have significantly increased, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level compared to the same period, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have remained stable. Ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw - material inventory has rebounded from a low level [38][39]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventory has increased and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Zinc alloy output is at a medium level [40]. - **Imports and Exports**: Refined zinc imports and exports are presented in relevant data, and refined zinc import losses are shown in the data [42]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Data on the capacity utilization of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, scrap - steel consumption of steel mills, and the prices of recycled zinc - related raw materials are provided [44][45][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: The growth rate of refined zinc consumption is positive, but the downstream monthly capacity utilization has slightly declined and is mostly at a low level compared to the same period in history [50][54]. - **Downstream Raw - Material and Finished - Product Inventories**: Data on downstream raw - material and finished - product inventories of galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are provided [56][60][61]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [65]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural - gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and European zinc - smelter profit - and - loss situations are provided [67][68][69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Tensions in the Middle East have disrupted European natural gas supplies, driving up zinc prices. The domestic smelting profit has recovered, and the spot performance is better than that of copper and aluminum [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and market capital shows low interest. The significant increase in SHFE warehouse receipts and tight liquidity are suppressing prices [3]. - **Trading Consultation Views**: The overall fundamentals are neutral, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Processing and End - User Demand - Multiple charts are presented, including the weekly market sentiment index of galvanized coils, weekly and seasonal data on galvanized coil inventory, steel mill galvanized coil weekly production, net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), net imports of die - cast zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets (strips), net exports of zinc oxide, and various real - estate and infrastructure investment data [4][7][10][12][15] 3.2 Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Charts show seasonal data on zinc concentrate monthly imports, weekly processing fees of imported and domestic zinc concentrates, zinc ingot monthly production, refined zinc enterprise production profits and processing fees, zinc ingot monthly production + imports, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, and various inventory data including LME and SHFE zinc inventories [18][20][21] 3.3 Futures Market and Spot Market Review - Charts present the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contracts, the relationship between LME zinc closing prices and the US dollar index, LME zinc's spot/three - month and 3 - 15 - month spreads, and various basis data including LME zinc's spot/three - month spread seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [27][28][29][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state of neutral to strong. The supply and demand side of zinc is gradually changing, with the supply side expected to become looser, and the demand side slowly recovering after the holiday. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. The recent escalation of the Middle East situation may boost zinc prices due to market sentiment, but the actual impact on domestic supply is expected to be limited [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract last week was 24,710, with a weekly increase of 2.13%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,445, with a night - session decrease of 1.07%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,308, with a weekly decrease of 2.07% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract last Friday was 104,548, an increase of 1,614 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 94,874, an increase of 55,085. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,705, an increase of 3,962 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 229,485, a decrease of 1,863 [6] - **Basis**: The LME zinc premium changed from - 31.28 to - 18.34, an increase of 12.94; the bonded area zinc premium changed from - 45 to 130, an increase of 175; the Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium changed from - 35 to - 45, a decrease of 10; the Guangdong 0 zinc spot premium changed from - 65 to - 125, a decrease of 60; the Tianjin 0 zinc spot premium changed from - 85 to - 75, an increase of 10 [6] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 23,972 to 69,665; Shanghai Zinc total inventory increased by 39,027 to 126,052; social inventory increased by 59,500 to 219,900; LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,225 to 97,350, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 7.50%, a decrease of 3.11% compared to the previous week; the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories are at high levels, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are in the forefront of the industrial chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Mine enterprise profits are stable and at historical highs, smelting profits are stable and at historical lows, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at the same - period low [10][11] - **Capacity Utilization**: The zinc concentrate capacity utilization rate is rising and at a high level in the same period of history; the refined zinc capacity utilization rate is rising and at a medium level in the same period of history; the downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide capacity utilization rates are rising but at a medium - to - low level in history [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premium has declined. Overseas premiums are differentiated this week, with the Singapore premium remaining flat, the Antwerp premium declining, and the LME CASH - 3M rising [16][18] - **Spread**: The C - structure of Shanghai Zinc has flattened [21] - **Inventory**: There was a significant inventory build - up this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore area, the total LME inventory is relatively stable, the CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [25][30][32] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - to - high level in the same period of history [33] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level in the same period, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has remained stable. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and the smelter raw material inventory is at a low level in the same period [36][37] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output is rising and at a high level in the same period of history, smelter finished product inventory is rising and at a high level in the same period of history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [38] - **Imports and Exports**: The refined zinc import volume and export volume data are provided, and the refined zinc import profit and loss situation is also presented [40] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills, scrap steel daily consumption of steel mills, and the prices of plating pipe slag and secondary zinc oxide are provided [42][43][44][45] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive [48] - **Downstream**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of downstream industries has increased slightly, mostly at a high level in the same period of history. The raw material and finished product inventory data of downstream industries such as galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are also provided [52][53][56] - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments. Data on the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires, cement出库量, rubber tire production, project fund availability rate, and real estate and infrastructure investment are provided [61][62] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, European electricity prices, and European zinc smelter profit and loss are provided [64][65][66][67]