Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The current supply and demand in the nickel market are weak. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly, and overseas inventory has accumulated again. Technically, the increase in positions and decline in price indicate a strengthening of short - selling forces. It is recommended to short with a light position [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is 15,235 dollars/ton, down 50 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 59,940 hands, down 1,587 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 14,145 hands, down 3,937 hands. LME nickel inventory is 206,580 tons, up 402 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,047 tons, up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,318 tons, up 768 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,296 tons, up 854 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 650 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 202.24 dollars/ton, down 3.99 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 896.49 million tons, up 24.65 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.44 million tons, up 1.85 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. In June, the M2 - M1 gap was 3.7 percentage points, 1.9 percentage points smaller than that in May. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The EU may impose counter - tariff measures on US goods worth about 72 billion euros if the US - EU trade negotiation fails. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources and increases the cost [3]