| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 市场回顾 | 3 | | | 第三部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、精炼镍产量季节性变动 | | 3 | | | 二、不锈钢低价原料不足，保持淡季去库 | | 8 | | | 三、三元需求淡季不淡 | | 16 | | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 22 | | | 免责声明 | | | 24 | 有色板块研发报告 镍 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 【行情回顾】 2 月，镍价先跌后涨，运行区间收窄，低点下探 13 万，高点却也不足 14.5 万。当前市场交易逻辑被印尼镍产品供应扰动主导，不断有新消息刺 激市场神经。2 月横跨春节长假，节前资金流出避险，价格回调；节后下游 逐步复工，市场情绪回暖，资金重返镍市，呈现量价齐增的格局。 【市场展望】 宏观层面，地缘政治冲突加剧、货币贬值压力显现、通胀预期升温，资 金流入商品市场，有色板块虽然 1 月冲高后技术性回调，但中长期涨势尚未 结束。产业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai nickel rebounded sharply with wide - range fluctuations at a low level. New policy disturbance risks remain, such as the reduction of new policy quotas in Indonesia's 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). The release of Indonesia's MHP capacity suppresses prices. After the high - level of imported nickel shows some improvement, nickel inventories continue to increase. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory are at high levels. It is expected that nickel prices will experience more intense low - level fluctuations overall [7]. - In terms of strategy, short - term long - position trading is recommended for the main contract of Shanghai nickel. For options, lightly buy out - of - the - money call and put options. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel production, and Indonesia's nickel element exports [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Week - long Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel had a sharp and volatile rebound at a low level last week. The RMB exchange rate is approaching the "7" mark. In November, the total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, with the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry increasing by 60.2% year - on - year. Indonesia may change its mining policy [7]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but there are still risks of new policy quota reduction in Indonesia's 2026 RKAB. China's nickel imports are large, remaining at a high level in November. In November, domestic ferronickel production was at a low level, while Indonesia's remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and the output in November increased slightly month - on - month. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level [7]. - **Demand**: In November, stainless - steel production declined slightly month - on - month, and it is expected to be restricted in December. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, but the absolute value has decreased. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials has increased significantly in recent months [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, SHFE inventory increased month - on - month, and refined nickel social inventory increased slightly compared with last week [7]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [9]. 3.3. Spot and Futures Markets - The report presents charts of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 months, in US dollars per ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (in yuan per ton) [11]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly, with an import volume of 36.5763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. In October - November 2025, imports were 468,280 tons and 333,940 tons respectively, showing a continued month - on - month decline [19]. - **Ferronickel**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel output was 1.5138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In November 2025, the output was 157,400 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and still at a high level. In 2024, domestic ferronickel output was 296,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%. In November 2025, the output was 22,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level. In November 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 895,000 tons, showing a month - on - month decline, and the inventory was 22,500 tons, remaining stable [24][28]. - **Refined Nickel**: In 2025, with the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level. In September - October 2025, the apparent consumption was 33,051.88 tons and 22,949.39 tons respectively. In November 2025, China's nickel imports were 233,000 tons, remaining at a high level, and exports were 13,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [31][35]. 3.5. Intermediates - **Wet - process Intermediates**: In November 2025, Indonesia's MHP output was 40,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [42]. - **High - grade Nickel Matte**: Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte output growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. In October - November 2025, the output was 29,800 tons and 31,200 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned intermediate - product production capacities from 2025 - 2027 [47]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In November 2025, the output was 30,735.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease. In October - November 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 22,055 tons and 31,817.9 tons respectively [51]. 3.6. Demand Side - **Stainless - steel Demand**: In November 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4931 million tons, showing a slight decline from the high level. The latest total social stainless - steel inventory was 992,960 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [57]. - **Cathode Material Demand**: From the perspective of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. It is expected that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand will still have inertia. In November 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 83,200 tons, continuing to rebound [62]. 3.7. Inventory Side - **Social and Bonded - area Inventory**: As of December 19, 2025, the refined nickel social inventory was 55,988 tons, showing a slight increase compared with last week [69]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of December 23, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 254,388 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of December 24, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 38,428 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [75].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Previous Review**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but Powell's speech was unexpectedly hawkish, stating that there is no need to cut rates in December. The ECB and BOJ maintained their existing interest rate policies. Sino-US relations have eased, and the nickel price retreated significantly after the release of macro bullish expectations due to no obvious improvement in fundamentals [3]. - **Future Outlook**: The bottom support is solid, waiting for the driving force to boost the price. Overseas nickel ore supply is expected to shrink marginally, and the cost support remains. The real estate sales data is still sluggish, and the new energy consumption may drive the demand, but there is a risk of cooling demand at the end of the month. The supply remains high, and the pressure of oversupply remains unchanged. Sino-US relations have entered a stage of easing, and there is still room for macro boost. It is expected that the deep decline space of nickel price is limited [3][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Summary - **Nickel Prices**: SHFE nickel price decreased from 122,150 yuan/ton to 120,590 yuan/ton, and LME nickel price decreased from 15,361 dollars/ton to 15,226 dollars/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,248 tons to 252,102 tons, and SHFE nickel inventory increased by 4,578 tons to 31,388 tons [4]. 2. Market Condition Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: The Fed cut interest rates, while the ECB and BOJ maintained rates. Sino-US relations have eased, with the two sides reaching multiple consensuses and suspending some trade confrontation policies [3][5]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB prices of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable. The nickel ore shipment volume in the Philippines decreased due to the rainy season, and the overall performance of the ore end was relatively strong [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In October, the national refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, with a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The profit margins of some processes were significantly repaired, and the import volume increased significantly [7]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high-nickel pig iron decreased slightly. In September, the nickel pig iron production in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. The total inventory increased [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The domestic 300-series stainless steel production is expected to decrease in October, and the inventory increased slightly. The price of 300-series stainless steel decreased slightly [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate remained stable, while the price of electroplating-grade nickel sulfate increased. In September, the production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased. The profit margins of some processes increased [10]. - **New Energy**: From October 1 - 26, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were flat. The sales data may gradually reflect the strong demand in November, but there is a risk of a sharp decline in sales growth in late November [10]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of pure nickel decreased, while the SHFE and LME inventories increased [11]. 3. Industry News - The Kalgoorlie nickel project of Ardea Resources has obtained a three-year extension of support from the Australian federal government [13]. - A nickel mine in the Philippines may face suspension of operation due to deforestation near a protected area [13]. - Ember urges Indonesia to decarbonize its nickel industry that relies on coal [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on domestic and international nickel price trends, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic and foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high-nickel iron price, 300-series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Long - term supply and demand are both increasing, the surplus pattern remains unchanged. The upside of nickel prices is limited, while the downside is supported by costs. Maintain a sideways view on Shanghai nickel, and consider going long when the price retraces to the cost line during the peak seasons. For stainless steel, industry demand remains weak, and steel enterprises adjust short - term changes through production and inventory. The pattern of wide - range sideways movement at the bottom is hard to change [67][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - Not elaborated in the report 3.2全球供需平衡 - From 2020 to 2025E, global primary nickel supply and demand are both increasing. In 2025E, primary nickel supply is expected to be 3690000 tons, and demand is expected to be 3580000 tons, showing a supply - surplus situation [3] 3.3新能源产业链 3.3.1中国新能源汽车产销数据 - In July 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July 2025, cumulative production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 39.2% and 38.5% [9][10] 3.3.2动力电池 - In July 2025, the total production of power and other batteries was 133.8GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. Sales were 127.2GWh, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. The installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9GWh, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [14] 3.3.3硫酸镍价格稳中有升 - In July 2025, China's nickel sulfate physical output was 194700 tons, and metal output was 42800 tons. In August 2025, it is expected to be 43000 metal tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. Battery - grade nickel sulfate is priced at 27200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week, and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate is priced at 28250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [17] 3.4不锈钢产业链 3.4.1镍矿 - Nickel ore prices and freight rates remained unchanged from last week. On August 21, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 12.0585 million wet tons, a 10.11% increase. In July 2025, nickel ore imports were 5005800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15.16% and a year - on - year increase of 43.63% [20][23] 3.4.2镍铁 - Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight increase. In July 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual output was 22900 tons of metal, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63%. In July 2025, China's nickel iron imports were 836000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.7% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [26][29][32] 3.4.3不锈钢 - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 37.5 yuan/ton on average in four regions this week. In July, stainless steel crude steel output was 3.2108 million tons. On August 22, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a 1.28 - million - ton increase [40][45][48] 3.5纯镍市场 3.5.1电解镍产量 - In July 2025, China's refined nickel output was 36151 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. In August 2025, it is estimated to be 37760 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.45% and a year - on - year increase of 33.38% [56] 3.5.2精炼镍进出口量 - In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 38164.223 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 124.36% and a year - on - year increase of 798.94%. Exports were 15545.572 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 53.27% and a year - on - year increase of 3.43% [59] 3.5.3库存情况 - LME inventory decreased by 1914 tons to 209748 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 19 tons to 26943 tons. The total social inventory of Shanghai nickel was 39937 tons, a 1349 - ton decrease from last week [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Recently, nickel supply has remained largely unchanged, but the 3.25% increase in domestic refined nickel inventory last week poses a significant negative impact on the fundamentals. Nickel prices are under pressure to decline but are also constrained by cost considerations and are unlikely to drop significantly. Attention should be paid to news disturbances from major producing countries and changes in macro - expectations, especially Indonesia's claim to crack down on illegal mining [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is facing a situation where the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, and the market may fall into a stalemate again. Downstream enterprises are not very enthusiastic about purchasing and are mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The recent market recovery is mainly supported by strong macro news, but the spot fundamentals have recovered poorly, and demand needs further release [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Prices**: As of August 18, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged from last week at $29, $57, and $78.5 per wet ton respectively. As of August 15, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore at Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by $0.3 and $0 respectively from last week to $24.5 and $52.3 per wet ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron as of August 18 increased by $7 per nickel point from last week to $926 per nickel point, a 0.76% increase [3][25]. - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. The national nickel pig iron output (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. In July 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][60]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 6 million tons to 776 million wet tons, a 0.78% increase. Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1319 tons to 4.19 million tons, a 3.25% increase [27][39]. - **Profit**: As of August 12, the cash cost production profit margin of Fujian RKEF increased by 0.92 percentage points to - 9.36% [3]. Stainless - steel Market - **Output**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons, with the 300 - series output increasing by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series output increasing by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series output decreasing by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [70]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.74 million tons to 107.89 million tons, a 2.48% decrease. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 57 tons to 10.31 million tons, a 0.06% increase [74]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 18, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by $30 per ton to $12995 per ton, a 0.23% decrease. The production profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by 0.34 percentage points to - 2.16% [78]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the supply of sulfuric acid nickel in the market is generally in a stable and weak state [49]. - **Profit**: As of August 18, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased by 0.2, increased by 1.3, increased by 0.3, and increased by 0.3 percentage points respectively from last week to - 1.6%, - 3.6%, 4.4%, and - 2.5% [55][56].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The current supply and demand in the nickel market are weak. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly, and overseas inventory has accumulated again. Technically, the increase in positions and decline in price indicate a strengthening of short - selling forces. It is recommended to short with a light position [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is 15,235 dollars/ton, down 50 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 59,940 hands, down 1,587 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 14,145 hands, down 3,937 hands. LME nickel inventory is 206,580 tons, up 402 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,047 tons, up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,318 tons, up 768 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,296 tons, up 854 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 650 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 202.24 dollars/ton, down 3.99 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 896.49 million tons, up 24.65 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.44 million tons, up 1.85 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. In June, the M2 - M1 gap was 3.7 percentage points, 1.9 percentage points smaller than that in May. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The EU may impose counter - tariff measures on US goods worth about 72 billion euros if the US - EU trade negotiation fails. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources and increases the cost [3]