1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Long - term supply and demand are both increasing, the surplus pattern remains unchanged. The upside of nickel prices is limited, while the downside is supported by costs. Maintain a sideways view on Shanghai nickel, and consider going long when the price retraces to the cost line during the peak seasons. For stainless steel, industry demand remains weak, and steel enterprises adjust short - term changes through production and inventory. The pattern of wide - range sideways movement at the bottom is hard to change [67][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - Not elaborated in the report 3.2全球供需平衡 - From 2020 to 2025E, global primary nickel supply and demand are both increasing. In 2025E, primary nickel supply is expected to be 3690000 tons, and demand is expected to be 3580000 tons, showing a supply - surplus situation [3] 3.3新能源产业链 3.3.1中国新能源汽车产销数据 - In July 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July 2025, cumulative production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 39.2% and 38.5% [9][10] 3.3.2动力电池 - In July 2025, the total production of power and other batteries was 133.8GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. Sales were 127.2GWh, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. The installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9GWh, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [14] 3.3.3硫酸镍价格稳中有升 - In July 2025, China's nickel sulfate physical output was 194700 tons, and metal output was 42800 tons. In August 2025, it is expected to be 43000 metal tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. Battery - grade nickel sulfate is priced at 27200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week, and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate is priced at 28250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [17] 3.4不锈钢产业链 3.4.1镍矿 - Nickel ore prices and freight rates remained unchanged from last week. On August 21, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 12.0585 million wet tons, a 10.11% increase. In July 2025, nickel ore imports were 5005800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15.16% and a year - on - year increase of 43.63% [20][23] 3.4.2镍铁 - Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight increase. In July 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual output was 22900 tons of metal, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63%. In July 2025, China's nickel iron imports were 836000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.7% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [26][29][32] 3.4.3不锈钢 - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 37.5 yuan/ton on average in four regions this week. In July, stainless steel crude steel output was 3.2108 million tons. On August 22, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a 1.28 - million - ton increase [40][45][48] 3.5纯镍市场 3.5.1电解镍产量 - In July 2025, China's refined nickel output was 36151 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. In August 2025, it is estimated to be 37760 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.45% and a year - on - year increase of 33.38% [56] 3.5.2精炼镍进出口量 - In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 38164.223 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 124.36% and a year - on - year increase of 798.94%. Exports were 15545.572 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 53.27% and a year - on - year increase of 3.43% [59] 3.5.3库存情况 - LME inventory decreased by 1914 tons to 209748 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 19 tons to 26943 tons. The total social inventory of Shanghai nickel was 39937 tons, a 1349 - ton decrease from last week [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Recently, nickel supply has remained largely unchanged, but the 3.25% increase in domestic refined nickel inventory last week poses a significant negative impact on the fundamentals. Nickel prices are under pressure to decline but are also constrained by cost considerations and are unlikely to drop significantly. Attention should be paid to news disturbances from major producing countries and changes in macro - expectations, especially Indonesia's claim to crack down on illegal mining [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is facing a situation where the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, and the market may fall into a stalemate again. Downstream enterprises are not very enthusiastic about purchasing and are mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The recent market recovery is mainly supported by strong macro news, but the spot fundamentals have recovered poorly, and demand needs further release [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Prices**: As of August 18, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged from last week at $29, $57, and $78.5 per wet ton respectively. As of August 15, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore at Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by $0.3 and $0 respectively from last week to $24.5 and $52.3 per wet ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron as of August 18 increased by $7 per nickel point from last week to $926 per nickel point, a 0.76% increase [3][25]. - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. The national nickel pig iron output (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. In July 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][60]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 6 million tons to 776 million wet tons, a 0.78% increase. Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1319 tons to 4.19 million tons, a 3.25% increase [27][39]. - **Profit**: As of August 12, the cash cost production profit margin of Fujian RKEF increased by 0.92 percentage points to - 9.36% [3]. Stainless - steel Market - **Output**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons, with the 300 - series output increasing by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series output increasing by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series output decreasing by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [70]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.74 million tons to 107.89 million tons, a 2.48% decrease. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 57 tons to 10.31 million tons, a 0.06% increase [74]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 18, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by $30 per ton to $12995 per ton, a 0.23% decrease. The production profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by 0.34 percentage points to - 2.16% [78]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the supply of sulfuric acid nickel in the market is generally in a stable and weak state [49]. - **Profit**: As of August 18, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased by 0.2, increased by 1.3, increased by 0.3, and increased by 0.3 percentage points respectively from last week to - 1.6%, - 3.6%, 4.4%, and - 2.5% [55][56].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The current supply and demand in the nickel market are weak. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly, and overseas inventory has accumulated again. Technically, the increase in positions and decline in price indicate a strengthening of short - selling forces. It is recommended to short with a light position [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is 15,235 dollars/ton, down 50 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 59,940 hands, down 1,587 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 14,145 hands, down 3,937 hands. LME nickel inventory is 206,580 tons, up 402 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,047 tons, up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,318 tons, up 768 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,296 tons, up 854 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 650 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 202.24 dollars/ton, down 3.99 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 896.49 million tons, up 24.65 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.44 million tons, up 1.85 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. In June, the M2 - M1 gap was 3.7 percentage points, 1.9 percentage points smaller than that in May. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The EU may impose counter - tariff measures on US goods worth about 72 billion euros if the US - EU trade negotiation fails. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources and increases the cost [3]