证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-08-27 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] #海外政治：特朗普宣布罢免理事库克，美联储独立性遭挑战 核心观点：特朗普以涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为为由罢免美联 储理事库克，成为 1913 年美联储成立以来首次。当前美联储理事会中沃 勒和鲍曼 2 位理事均由特朗普提名，未来若特朗普提名的新理事米兰能 够获得参议院批准，且在成功罢免库克后再提名另一位新理事，则理事会 中将有 4 人与特朗普立场一致，超过半数。罢免消息公布后，市场对未 来更多"特朗普派"的理事就职预期令明年的降息预期升温，而对美联储 独立性和美元信用的担忧则令长端美债利率和黄金价格上行，美元指数 下行。向前看，由于罢免风波前景未明，对美联储独立性的担忧料将持续 发酵，预计黄金价格将阶段性维持高位、美债期限溢价走阔。 风险提示： 特朗普政策落地节奏与预期相差较大；美联储维持高利率水平时间过长， 引发金融系统流动性危机；通胀下行速率不及预期。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收周报 20250825：转债市场分歧正在累积 1）在维持整体仓位稳健的基础上 ...

只要人的好奇心还在，"工业迪士尼"这样的 乐园就不会消失。 文 ｜ 馍王 编辑 ｜ 闫如意 来源｜ 凤凰WEEKLY（ID：phoenixweekly） 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash 以下文章来源于凤凰WEEKLY ，作者馍王 凤凰WEEKLY . 有温度、有情感、有趣味的新媒体。 今年夏天，是近年来"室外活动"最难的一个夏天。 酷暑和暴雨轮番来袭，让徒步野营没了声响，骑行自驾寸步难行。前两年大火的"生态研学营"，也忍气吞声地消失了不少。 然而，旅游是一个"此起彼伏"的行业，有地方衰落，就有地方崛起。 老G发现，一种新的"室内旅游"形式开始在身边流行起来。 而且最爱这种旅游方式的，不是放暑假的孩子，而是从工作日中挤出空闲时间也要去的打工人。 它就是"工业游" 。 工厂，怎么成了游乐场？ 一说工业游，脑子里有刻板印象的朋友立刻丧失兴趣了： 不就是工厂参观嘛？上学那会儿去过。 买了挺贵的门票，结果就是去大工厂里那种专门用来接待游客的"参观走廊"走一圈。墙上地上全都是介绍工厂历史、生产流程、责任分配的展板，顶多再 给你弄俩微缩模型。 同行来也许能学到点东西，但游客来站着都能睡着。 属于花钱买了节线代课，还得是下午 ...

每经记者｜杨欢 每经编辑｜刘艳美 据漯河日报消息，近日，郑州市委副书记、市长庄建球率考察团来漯，围绕郑州都市圈协同发展进行考察交流。漯河市委副书记、市长黄钫等陪同。考察团 先后到中国食品名城品牌馆、中原食品实验室、河南安迈康生物科技有限公司进行考察，对漯河持之以恒做大做强食品产业、大力发展新质生产力、以一流 创新平台赋能高质量发展的生动实践和取得的一系列成果表示赞赏。 双方在交流中表示，将以此次考察为契机，按照河南省委十一届九次全会和省政府郑州都市圈建设工作推进会议部署要求，进一步加强沟通对接，实现资源 共享、优势互补，共同推动郑州都市圈建设迈向更高水平，为奋力谱写中原大地推进中国式现代化新篇章提供强有力支撑。 解读：作为第10个获批的国家级都市圈，郑州都市圈处于我国"两横三纵"城镇化战略格局中陆桥通道、京广通道交会处。在国家已批复的17个都市圈中，郑 州都市圈范围居第7位，常住人口数量居第4位，经济总量居第10位。 产业是都市圈发展的"根基"，仅以中部地区为例，当前武汉都市圈重点打造光电子信息、生命健康等产业集群；合肥都市圈全力建设新型显示、智能电动汽 车等产业集群；长株潭都市圈则是瞄准工程机械、轨道交通等 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for China [3][4]. Group 1: Emerging Opportunities - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities; instead, it presents new avenues for business growth [4]. - Consumer behavior is shifting towards second-hand markets, with significant growth in platforms like Xianyu and Zhuanzhuan, indicating a rising demand for second-hand goods [6][9]. - The pet economy is booming, with brands like Guobao and Zhongchong seeing strong sales as consumers prioritize spending on pets over traditional family structures [11][12][15]. - The adult care market is expanding, particularly in China, where products like adult diapers are expected to see significant growth due to an aging population [16][18]. - The beauty and wellness sectors are thriving, with products like collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices gaining popularity, reflecting a continued consumer focus on aesthetics [23]. - Outdoor and leisure activities are on the rise, with brands in camping and outdoor gear experiencing increased sales as consumers seek experiences over material possessions [24][30]. - The emotional economy is gaining traction, with products that provide comfort and joy, such as low-alcohol beverages, becoming increasingly popular [25][26]. - The "lazy economy" is emerging, driven by younger generations who prefer convenience, leading to growth in frozen food and smart home appliances [29][31]. Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The article suggests that the current economic climate, often viewed as a "winter," actually presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors [33]. - The upcoming event, "Black Horse Consumption Rise," aims to provide insights into how Japanese and Chinese companies can thrive in a stock market era through product innovation and brand expansion [34][39]. - The importance of understanding consumer needs and market segmentation is highlighted, with successful companies focusing on niche markets and innovative product offerings [42]. - The article discusses the significance of global branding and the need for Chinese companies to build trust in international markets through effective storytelling and cultural adaptation [43][49].

Group 1 - The article discusses the rise of "industrial tourism" as a new trend in the tourism industry, particularly appealing to working individuals seeking leisure activities during their limited free time [1][35][56] - Industrial tourism is characterized by factory visits that offer interactive experiences, allowing visitors to engage with production processes and take home products, making it more attractive than traditional factory tours [4][20][34] - The market for industrial tourism is currently valued at approximately 100 billion yuan, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 18% to 22% over the next few years, indicating significant growth potential [37][52] Group 2 - Notable examples of successful industrial tourism include the Luosifen factory in Guangxi, which offers affordable tickets that include a meal, and the Yuanqi Forest factory, which provides free drinks and interactive experiences [6][11][13] - The article highlights the increasing popularity of factory tours among consumers, with events like Xiaomi's factory tour receiving overwhelming interest, showcasing the demand for such experiences [40][43] - The article also mentions that industrial tourism is part of a broader category known as "industrial science popularization tourism," which includes agricultural and technology museum tourism, with industrial tourism currently having the fastest growth rate among these categories [36][37]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer behavior in home dining to effectively meet their needs in the food and beverage industry [1][12] Group 1: Breakfast Consumption - Breakfast is a crucial time for efficiency, with nutrition being an essential factor; convenient foods that are quick and nutritious are preferred [4] - Frozen foods are the top choice for breakfast convenience, with dumplings and buns being the most popular items [4] - Consumer habits show that breakfast choices are often habitual, making it important for brands to secure a place in consumers' routines [4] Group 2: Dairy Consumption - Milk is predominantly consumed in the morning, but there is a potential growth ceiling; brands need to capture more market share by promoting milk consumption at other times [7] - Yogurt consumption is more evenly distributed throughout the day, particularly favored during afternoon tea and post-dinner snacks, highlighting its competitive edge in the snack category [7] - Yogurt brands need to focus on enhancing taste experiences to compete effectively with snack foods [7] Group 3: Dinner Consumption - Dinner is the primary time for prepared dishes, with common home-cooked meals like tomato and egg stir-fry being highly favored [9] - The article suggests that brands of condiments and cooking oils should focus on enhancing the flavor of everyday dishes rather than complex recipes [9] Group 4: Consumer Behavior Research - The "Home Dining Behavior Study" conducted by Worldpanel Consumer Index involved 18,506 consumers across various city tiers, providing a representative sample of home dining habits [13] - The study collected data on a wide range of food and beverage consumption, including packaged foods, fresh produce, and homemade dishes, to gain comprehensive insights into cross-category eating habits [13]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on Anjoy Foods (02648) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 72, highlighting its position as the leading player in China's frozen food market with a 6.6% market share in 2024 [1] - The company is expected to maintain its market leadership due to its excellent operational capabilities, economies of scale, extensive channel coverage, and mature product development experience [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a gradual normalization of market competition and a shift towards higher-end 2C products, predicting a slight recovery in Anjoy Foods' gross margin starting next year, with profit margins expected to expand to 10.2% by 2027 [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has initiated a "Buy" rating for Anjoy Foods with a target price of HKD 72, highlighting its position as the leading company in China's frozen food market with a market share of 6.6% in 2024 [1] - The company is expected to maintain its market leadership due to its excellent operational capabilities, economies of scale, extensive channel coverage, and mature product development experience [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a slight recovery in Anjoy Foods' gross margin starting next year, with a forecasted net profit margin of 9.8% in 2024, declining to 9.5% in 2025 due to ongoing market competition [1] Group 2 - The long-term outlook for Anjoy Foods remains positive, with expectations that profit margins will expand to 10.2% by 2027 [1]

Sales Performance - In July 2025, the company sold 27.66 million chicks, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.87% and a month-on-month increase of 13.74% [1] - The sales revenue for the same period was 41.36 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 27.30% and a month-on-month decrease of 18.56% [1] Guarantee Matters - The company approved a guarantee of 1 billion yuan for its subsidiaries' financing needs, with mutual guarantees among subsidiaries totaling 50 million yuan [6] - Recently, the company signed loan-related documents with banks for credit applications, including a 10 million yuan loan for its subsidiary, Weifang Minhe Food Co., Ltd., with a three-year joint liability guarantee [8] - The total amount of guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries to external units is 64.83 million yuan, with actual guarantees amounting to 57.14 million yuan, which is 2.83% of the company's latest audited net assets [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights that Sanquan Foods is accelerating its diversified growth strategy through overseas expansion and capacity enhancement, particularly with a new production base in Australia [1] Group 1: Overseas Expansion - The company plans to invest 280 million AUD to establish a production base in Australia, marking the initiation of its localization strategy abroad [1] - Entering the Australian market is seen as a potential breakthrough due to high export barriers, but the company needs to monitor the investment return rhythm and channel implementation capabilities [1] Group 2: Domestic Capacity Enhancement - The construction of the Taicang project is progressing smoothly, which is expected to strengthen the company's production capacity in East China [1] - Once operational, the project is anticipated to significantly enhance supply capabilities in the East China market, reducing delivery radius and lowering logistics costs [1] Group 3: E-commerce Strategy - The company's e-commerce team has been restructured, focusing on both self-operated and customized products [1] - The restructuring in e-commerce and key account channels has shown initial effectiveness, and the localization strategy in Australia is expected to open new growth opportunities [1] Group 4: Valuation and Rating - Based on the current comparable company valuation levels, the company is given a target price of 11.70 CNY with a 2025 PE of 18 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]