研究报告 Research Report 25 Nov 2025 中国必需消费 China (Overseas) Staples 中国必选消费品 11 月成本报告：蔬菜和瓦楞纸显著涨价 November CGCI: Vegetables and Corrugated Paper Saw a Significant Price Surge | | | | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 7.90 | 21 | 20 | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform 36.00 | | 15 | 14 | | 海底捞 | Outperform 18.22 | | 15 | 14 | | 康师傅 | Outperform 17.74 | | 16 | 14 | | 中国飞鹤 | Outperform 7.00 | | 9 | 8 | | 优然牧业 | Outperform 5.50 ...

近期，巴中市市场监督管理局持续组织实施市级"你点我检"食品抽检，抽取了餐饮食品；食用油、油脂及其制品；酒类；食用农产品；乳制品；饮料；冷冻 饮品；调味品；薯类和膨化食品；肉制品；糕点；豆制品；蔬菜制品；蜂产品；炒货食品及坚果制品；淀粉及淀粉制品；速冻食品；粮食加工品等18类食品 本次食品安全监督抽检情况详见附件。消费者如有异议或建议，请拨打投诉举报电话12315反映。 特此通告。 2.合格项目信息表 巴中市市场监督管理局 2025年11月22日 附件1 本次检验项目 一、粮食加工品 （一）抽检依据 GB 2760 食品安全国家标准 食品添加剂使用标准 GB 2761 食品安全国家标准 食品中真菌毒素限量 GB 2762 食品安全国家标准 食品中污染物限量 GB 5009.15 食品安全国家标准 食品中镉的测定 GB 5009.22 食品安全国家标准 食品中黄曲霉毒素B族和G族的测定 GB 5009.27 食品安全国家标准 食品中苯并（a）芘的测定 GB 5009.96 食品安全国家标准 食品中赭曲霉毒素 A的测定 GB 5009.111 食品安全国家标准 食品中脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇及其乙酰化衍生物的测定 GB ...

华创证券则表示，近期跟踪到在10-11月在高基数背景下，渠道数据保持良性较快增长，动销延续Q3以 来逐月改善趋势，主要系一是今年Q3无经销商大会促销，渠道库存水平不算高；二是新品贡献，安井 受益小品牌退出，终端动销出现明显增长，部分产品出现断货；三是天气转冷旺季来临，催化速冻食品 需求。而考虑今年天气偏冷、且公司新品放量，当前销售情况向好，后续旺季春节存在进一步加速可 能。 财信证券发布研报称，从速冻板块上市公司三季报的表现来看，速冻食品行业需求端仍处于筑底企稳阶 段，但存量竞争下降价促销的效果逐步减弱，价格战随之趋缓，安井食品、三全食品（002216）等上市 公司毛利率逐步企稳。另外，随安井食品持续推进产品、渠道结构优化，以及经营提效，公司盈利能力 迎来企稳改善。 安井食品（603345）(02648)盘中涨近7%，截至发稿，涨4.84%，报71.4港元，成交额4645.41万港元。 ...

华创证券则表示，近期跟踪到在10-11月在高基数背景下，渠道数据保持良性较快增长，动销延续Q3以 来逐月改善趋势，主要系一是今年Q3无经销商大会促销，渠道库存水平不算高；二是新品贡献，安井 受益小品牌退出，终端动销出现明显增长，部分产品出现断货；三是天气转冷旺季来临，催化速冻食品 需求。而考虑今年天气偏冷、且公司新品放量，当前销售情况向好，后续旺季春节存在进一步加速可 能。 智通财经APP获悉，安井食品(02648)盘中涨近7%，截至发稿，涨4.84%，报71.4港元，成交额4645.41万 港元。 财信证券发布研报称，从速冻板块上市公司三季报的表现来看，速冻食品行业需求端仍处于筑底企稳阶 段，但存量竞争下降价促销的效果逐步减弱，价格战随之趋缓，安井食品、三全食品等上市公司毛利率 逐步企稳。另外，随安井食品持续推进产品、渠道结构优化，以及经营提效，公司盈利能力迎来企稳改 善。 ...

2025年复盘：行业表现较弱，白酒调整为主因，大众品复苏趋势不变 从整体来看，2025年前三季度食品饮料收入同比+0.1%，利润同比-14.6%，均慢于去年同期水平，对应 行业指数年初至今涨跌幅在31个子行业中排名第31。从结构来看，白酒周期调整为食品饮料表现较弱的 主要因素，实际上大众品复苏长期趋势不变，并且内部节奏呈现H1新消费领先(功能饮料+魔芋零食+量 贩渠道+山姆渠道)、H2传统消费修复接力(速冻食品等)。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，2025年食饮行业表现较弱，白酒调整为主因，大众品复 苏趋势不变。该行认为2026年食品饮料行业仍以结构性机会为主：1)新消费仍具持续性，但板块内部或 有轮动;2)部分传统消费供给逐渐出清，需求改善有望推动板块修复，例如乳制品、速冻食品等。该行 认为2026年新消费将出现内部轮动。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 2026年展望：结构性机会延续，新消费内部轮动，传统消费底部修复 若2026年宏观经济恢复节奏仍然偏温和，该行认为食品饮料行业仍以结构性机会为主：1)新消费仍具持 续性，但板块内部或有轮动;2)部分传统消费供给逐渐出清，需求改善有望推动板块修复， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing internal rotation in new consumption and improvement at the bottom of traditional consumption. The overall performance in 2025 was weak, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, but the long-term recovery trend for mass consumer goods remains intact [3][8]. - For 2026, structural opportunities are expected to continue, with new consumption showing internal rotation and traditional consumption gradually recovering from the bottom [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, the food and beverage sector's revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, while profits fell by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year. The industry index ranked last among 31 sub-industries with a decline of 4.8% [8][11]. - The adjustment in the liquor sector is identified as the main factor for the overall weak performance, while the recovery trend for mass consumer goods is expected to persist [8][11]. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry is projected to benefit from a rebound in travel demand in 2026, with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [42][45]. - Cost advantages from declining prices of raw materials like sugar and PET are expected to continue, enhancing profit margins for beverage companies [45][49]. Snacks - The konjac snack sector is experiencing high growth, with companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long achieving significant revenue increases in 2025 [66][67]. - The competitive landscape for konjac products is expected to remain manageable, with established brands likely to maintain their market positions despite new entrants [70][76]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in supply-demand balance, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2026 due to ongoing supply adjustments [38][39]. - Policies promoting consumption are expected to benefit liquid milk and milk powder sales, driving demand improvements [38][39]. Frozen and Condiment Products - The frozen food sector is expected to see performance improvements as competition stabilizes, with a focus on recovery in demand [38][39]. - The condiment sector is also projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in consumer demand [38][39]. Liquor - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out stage, with supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [6][25]. - The report suggests that the long-term value of liquor stocks will become more apparent as the market stabilizes [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Moutai in the beverage sector, as well as Wei Long and Salted Fish in the snack sector [6][8].

Core Points - The Zhongshan Market Supervision Administration conducted a food safety inspection covering nine categories of food, with a total of 627 samples tested, of which 619 were qualified and 8 were unqualified [2]. Group 1: Inspection Results - A total of 627 food samples were collected from various production and operation sectors in Zhongshan [2]. - Out of the 627 samples, 619 were found to be compliant with safety standards, resulting in a compliance rate of approximately 98.7% [2]. - The unqualified samples included various food types, indicating potential areas of concern in food safety [2]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The administration encourages consumers to actively participate in food safety supervision and report any harmful food products or illegal activities [2]. - Consumers are urged to pay attention to the food inspection information released periodically [2].

Core Viewpoint - Anjuke Foods (02648) has shown a nearly 5% increase in stock price, attributed to its solid performance in the third quarter and positive market conditions for frozen food products [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Anjuke Foods reported a revenue of 11.371 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.66% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 949 million yuan [1] Market Trends - According to Zhongyin International, the company's main business revenue remained stable in Q3, with new channels performing well [1] - Huachuang Securities noted that channel data has shown healthy and rapid growth in October and November, despite high base comparisons [1] Growth Drivers - The company is driving growth through product innovation, adapting to channel changes and consumer demands [1] - Factors contributing to improved sales include the absence of a distributor conference promotion in Q3, low channel inventory levels, and the positive impact of new products [1] - The onset of colder weather is expected to boost demand for frozen food products, with potential for further acceleration during the upcoming Spring Festival [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anjiu Foods (603345) reported a steady performance in Q3, with revenue growth driven by product innovation and favorable channel dynamics, indicating potential for continued improvement in the upcoming quarters [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Anjiu Foods achieved a revenue of 11.371 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.66% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 949 million yuan [1] Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing robust growth in new channels, with Q3 showing a positive trend in sales performance [1] - Factors contributing to this growth include the absence of a promotional event in Q3, low channel inventory levels, and the successful introduction of new products [1] Seasonal Trends - The upcoming winter season is expected to boost demand for frozen food products, further enhancing sales performance [1] - The current favorable sales conditions, combined with the anticipated seasonal demand during the Spring Festival, suggest potential for accelerated growth [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the dairy products, seasoning, and frozen food industries, focusing on the performance of major companies like Yili and Mengniu, as well as market trends and challenges faced by various brands. Key Points on Dairy Products - The overall dairy market is expected to stabilize in 2025, with Yili outperforming Mengniu. Mengniu's ambient liquid milk has seen a significant decline, but product innovation and channel optimization may lead to growth [1][4]. - Dairy product terminal prices are gradually stabilizing from the second half of 2024, while upstream raw milk prices continue to decline, resulting in a decrease in net profits for distributors, with about one-third currently operating at a loss [1][17]. - The demand for liquid milk is declining, primarily due to reduced gifting and everyday consumption, particularly among low-income consumers [10][18]. - Mengniu's ambient liquid milk sales have declined by approximately 14% to 15% year-on-year, while Yili's decline is around 3% [5][12]. - The dairy industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, but a rebound is expected in 2026, particularly for high-end products [9][19]. Key Points on Seasoning Market - The seasoning market is overall sluggish in 2025, with many brands failing to meet growth targets. The hot pot base market share is declining, while compound seasoning's share is increasing, but total sales are still in negative growth [1][22]. - Yihai International's hot pot base has declined due to overall industry downturn and competition from private label products, necessitating product innovation and expansion into B-end business [1][23]. - The online and offline price chaos has impacted the market, with a 10% decrease in offline prices compared to 2024 [25][26]. Key Points on Frozen Food Market - The frozen food market has shown signs of recovery in 2025, particularly in October, driven by the sales of hot pot balls. C-end growth is outperforming B-end growth [3][49]. - The overall sales of frozen food have increased by approximately 3% from January to October 2025, with significant growth in products like dumplings and wontons [37][50]. - The sales recovery in the fourth quarter is attributed to inventory clearance and promotional activities [38][39]. Additional Insights - The restaurant industry is witnessing a closure trend, particularly among large stores in shopping malls, but there is potential for recovery in 2026, which may boost hot pot base sales [1][33]. - The performance of brands like Tianwei is hindered by weak channel price control and uneven regional development, resulting in negative growth [30][31]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with smaller brands struggling to survive due to financial pressures and market competition [56]. Conclusion - The dairy, seasoning, and frozen food industries are navigating a challenging environment with varying performance across different segments. While there are signs of stabilization and potential growth in certain areas, companies must focus on innovation, channel management, and adapting to changing consumer behaviors to capitalize on future opportunities.