中金研究 展望2026年，我们判断机械行业中科技创新板块仍具备显著投资机会；其次，出口端虽面临不确定性，但随着国际化进程推进，叠加美联储降息落地 等，我们认为外需存结构性机遇；内需层面，下游短期难见大范围产能扩张，但随着产能出清和通用企业向成长行业转型，股价有望反弹。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract AI基建：高景气资本开支和高频技术迭代带来机械发展新机遇。 1）海外算力资本开支超预期，行业扩产带动PCB设备和AIDC设备需求持续高增，全球 供给紧张，钻孔设备、柴油发动机、燃气轮机等有望迎来国产替代机会。2）AI算力升级催生设备及耗材新需求，下一代芯片Rubin在PCB、散热等架构上 创新，提高了PCB耗材和冷板、快接头等结构件的加工要求，并带动微通道液冷等新技术方案，设备及耗材价值量有望进一步提升。 人形机器人：2026年 产业 进度加速，关注头部扩产。 国产企业如宇树、智元等公司有望陆续上市，国产人形机器人性能快速迭代，应用场景合作生态加 速打开。重视软硬件技术发展，关注汽车、消费电子零部件跨界切入。 专用设备：关注景气拐点和技术变革的子赛道。 供给出清+技术创新趋势，看好：1）存在技术变革或技 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mechanical industry is expected to have significant investment opportunities in the technology innovation sector by 2026, with structural opportunities arising from both domestic demand recovery and high export demand [2][5]. Group 1: Technology Innovation and AI Infrastructure - The AI infrastructure is expected to benefit from high capital expenditure and rapid technological iterations, leading to new opportunities in the mechanical sector. Overseas capital expenditure for computing power is exceeding expectations, driving demand for PCB equipment and AIDC [2][5]. - The next generation of chips, such as Rubin, may increase processing requirements for PCB, cold plates, and quick connectors, while also promoting new technologies like micro-channel liquid cooling, enhancing the value of equipment and consumables [2][5]. Group 2: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to accelerate by 2026, with a focus on leading companies expanding production. The period from 2022 to 2025 is seen as a transition from prototype to small-scale engineering, with 2026 potentially marking the year of mass production for Tesla [7]. - Attention should be given to the performance upgrades of domestic humanoid robots and the rapid development of application scenarios [7]. Group 3: Export Chain - The export chain should focus on sectors with global competitiveness, such as engineering machinery, hardware tools, motorcycles, and oil service equipment, which are expected to benefit from internationalization and reforms [3][12]. - The engineering machinery sector is seeing significant growth in exports, particularly in the U.S. due to the recent interest rate cuts, which are likely to boost demand [11]. Group 4: Specialized Equipment - Specialized equipment sectors are expected to experience turning points and technological changes, with a focus on areas like solid-state batteries and nuclear fusion, as well as segments like 3C equipment and coal machinery that are showing signs of recovery [3][15]. - The lithium battery equipment sector is projected to see a growth spurt, with domestic capital expenditure expected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% [16]. Group 5: General Cyclical Opportunities - The general cyclical sector is expected to see a bottoming out, with structural opportunities emerging in areas like machine tools, injection molding machines, and industrial gases, as demand recovers [13][14]. - The demand for industrial gases is expected to improve, although there may still be pressure on gas prices [14]. Group 6: 3C Automation Equipment - The 3C automation equipment sector is anticipated to enter a hardware innovation phase in 2026, driven by new product trends such as foldable screens and AI glasses [17].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **High-end Equipment and AI PCB Market**: The AI PCB market is driven by key players such as Xinxin Microelectronics, Dazhu CNC, and Dongwei, which dominate the exposure machine, mechanical drilling, and pulse plating segments, respectively. Their capital expenditures are expected to account for over 80% of the AI PCB market in 2025, indicating strong stock performance and investment potential [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Domestic Substitution in PCB Equipment**: There is significant potential for domestic substitution in the PCB equipment sector. While Shenghong Technology relies heavily on imported equipment, companies like Dazhu CNC and Dongwei are positioned to capitalize on domestic alternatives. By the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026, domestic substitutes for CO2 laser drilling machines and horizontal three-in-one plating are expected to emerge [1][5]. - **Apple's Investment in AI**: Apple plans to significantly increase its investment in generative AI and related machine learning technologies, committing an additional $100 billion, bringing total investments to $900 billion over four years. The upgrade of the mobile GPT-4 model to GPT-5 is also anticipated [1][10]. - **Apple's Hardware Innovations**: The years 2026 and 2027 are projected to be pivotal for Apple's hardware innovations, including the iPhone 17, which will support edge AI applications and introduce new cooling technologies. The launch of a foldable phone is expected in 2026, with sales projections of 10 million units in the first year, increasing to 25 million in 2027, benefiting related mechanical companies [1][11][13]. - **Lithium Battery Equipment Sector**: The lithium battery equipment industry is experiencing a domestic cyclical turning point, driven by ongoing overseas cycles and advancements in solid-state battery technology. Revenue and profit recovery is evident, with significant growth reported by leading companies [1][18]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities in 3C Automation Equipment**: The 3C automation equipment market is heavily reliant on Apple's product innovation cycles. Despite a relatively stagnant performance in 2025, the upcoming product launches and AR device demand are expected to provide substantial growth opportunities [4][9][17]. - **Solid-State Battery Technology Impact**: The solid-state battery technology is catalyzing growth in the lithium battery equipment sector, with significant government subsidies and a projected release of equipment flexibility between 2026 and 2027 [19][20]. - **Military Sector Trends**: The military sector is expected to continue its upward trend post-adjustment, with a focus on new types of equipment that enhance systemic confrontation, unmanned capabilities, and strategic deterrence. Key areas of investment include drones, laser weapons, and commercial aerospace [4][26][30]. - **Emerging Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on leading companies in the lithium battery equipment sector, such as Xian Dao Intelligent and Hangke Technology, which are well-positioned for growth due to their strong financial performance and market positioning [23][24][25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends from the conference call records, highlighting the potential investment opportunities and risks within the high-end equipment, AI PCB, 3C automation, lithium battery, and military sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing stable revenue growth but challenges in net profit margins, with a focus on expanding its business in the 3C automation equipment and new energy sectors [1][2][3]. Financial Performance Summary 2024 Annual Results - Revenue reached 4.954 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.36% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 398 million yuan, up 2.05% year-on-year [1] - Non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 319 million yuan, down 2.66% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin was 34.38%, an increase of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net profit margin was 8.04%, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Non-recurring net profit margin was 6.44%, down 0.33 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Period expense ratio was 24.41%, up 0.71 percentage points year-on-year [1] Q1 2025 Results - Revenue for the quarter was 737 million yuan, a decrease of 0.80% year-on-year [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was -31 million yuan, indicating an expanded loss [2] - Non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was -36 million yuan, showing a reduced loss compared to the same period last year [2] - Gross margin was 31.9%, down 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Net profit margin was -4.2%, a decrease of 1.34 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Non-recurring net profit margin was -4.95%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Business Development Insights 3C Automation Equipment - The company maintains a strong position in the consumer electronics sector, actively participating in multiple projects with major clients [3] - Discussions are ongoing with major clients regarding the design of new generation MR production equipment, with sample production expected to start by the end of 2025 [3] New Energy Sector - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with Times Electric in the second half of 2024 to participate in the "chocolate battery swap ecosystem" [3] - Times Electric, a subsidiary of CATL, plans to build 1,000 battery swap stations by 2025, which is expected to benefit the company significantly [3] Robotics and Semiconductor Fields - The company has successfully expanded into the robotics sector, providing production auxiliary equipment for international robot manufacturers [4] - In the semiconductor field, the company continues to receive orders for high-precision packaging machines and is actively testing prototypes with new clients [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.853 billion yuan, 6.938 billion yuan, and 7.650 billion yuan, respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 522 million yuan, 688 million yuan, and 802 million yuan, respectively [4] - The estimated PE ratio for 2025 is 22X, with a "recommended" rating maintained [4]