近日，浙江凯乐士科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"凯乐士"）正式向港交所递表，冲击港股"全栈式 智能场内物流机器人第一股"。这是其第二次冲击港股上市，首次递表是在2025年6月，但已失效。 这家由"学霸夫妻档"——谷春光、杨艳联手创办的企业，背后站着物流巨头顺丰，其既是重要的外部机 构股东，也是核心客户。眼下，智能物流机器人赛道正借具身智能东风迎来爆发，中国市场规模预计到 2030年将突破4137亿元；另一边，凯乐士还带着2022年至2024年累计6.29亿元的亏损成绩单闯关。 一边是顺丰加持的资源优势与行业风口红利，一边是持续亏损、高负债的财务压力，这家行业第五的物 流机器人企业能否在港股市场撬开资本大门后，破解"赛道火热但盈利艰难"的行业困局？（注："行业 第五"指凯乐士在2024年中国综合智能场内物流机器人企业的市场份额中排名第五）顺丰双重赋能难止 亏，物流机器人盈利困局何解？ 所谓单一功能机器人部署，即专注于使用自主研发的机器人解决特定单一运营需求（如存取、分拣及搬 运）的项目。在谈及未来如何提高毛利率时，凯乐士在招股书中也提到，未来会通过增加高利润售后服 务及单一功能机器人部署的比例，并有针对性地扩张 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report maintains a positive outlook on humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and engineering machinery [2] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure remains strong, with significant investments expected in the sector [13] - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with increasing sales across various equipment types [12][63] Company Summaries 1) Rili Technology - Rili Technology is a leading supplier of industrial X-ray intelligent detection equipment and core components, establishing significant technological barriers [3] - The company saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in new orders in the first half of the year, with a 44.01% increase in revenue and an 18.83% increase in net profit for the first three quarters [3][14] - The profit growth is expected to improve as the impact of new production base construction and other costs diminishes [3] 2) Konstar - Konstar focuses on the research and sales of digital testing instruments, facing challenges due to tariffs [4] - The company reported a significant recovery in Q3, with revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increasing by 22.24%, 30.66%, and 36.2% respectively [4][15] - The resilience of international business under tariff pressures and strong domestic performance are noted as positive indicators for future growth [4] 3) Newray Co., Ltd. - Newray's main products include hard alloys and tools, with Q3 revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items growing by 38.02%, 75.40%, and 94.83% respectively [5][16] - The company has successfully passed on rising raw material costs to downstream customers, enhancing profitability [5] Industry Trends - In November, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales up 9.1% and exports up 18.8% [12][63] - The demand for engineering machinery is expanding beyond excavators, with significant growth in loader and crane sales [12][70] - The AI infrastructure sector is expected to benefit from substantial investments, with companies like NVIDIA planning to deliver AI chips to Chinese clients [13][58] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the rapidly developing humanoid robot sector, the ongoing AI infrastructure boom, and the improving performance of engineering machinery and tool sectors [14][58]

中金公司（601995）发布研报称，展望2026，"猪业新范式"、"宠物经济黄金时代"等产业变迁仍将持 续，猪业龙头成长与价值属性双升，宠业龙头以品牌矩阵高端化突破中局。此外，中国农牧业"大航海 时代"已开启，"机器换人"等中国农业科技的AI赋能新叙事也迎拐点。 中金主要观点如下： 周期：猪业新范式强化，中国农牧业开启大航海时代。我们认为1)生猪：新范式特征贯穿始终，龙头成 长与价值属性双升。价格端，我们测算26年猪价或延续振幅收敛、波动下降的新范式特征，价格中枢回 落、节奏先抑后扬，高效龙头有望保有年度盈利。经营端，猪企开启降成本、增价值、扩海外的成长新 范式，企业出栏保持平稳。投资端，核心龙头兼顾成长与价值，有望持续领跑。2)肉鸡：供应宽松，把 握种源、渠道、品牌的优势龙头有望提升经营溢价。3)饲料：水产料龙头国内价值、海外成长逻辑持续 强化，预计26年饲料龙头国内高质量提份额，加速开启全球大航海时代。4)农产品：供需格局边际改 善，粮食价格有望走出谷底。 消费：宠物经济行至中局，产品创新、渠道效率定胜负。我们认为1)宠物食品：竞争行至中局，高端化 创新破局。随行业换挡至高质量增长、叠加资本及产业加大投入 ...

摘要 生猪产业从周期性转向价值投资，不再依赖猪价波动，而是关注龙头企 业通过成本控制、价值提升和海外扩张实现的持续增长，预示着行业整 合和龙头企业盈利能力增强。 宠物食品行业维持增长态势，但竞争加剧，龙头企业市场份额加速提升。 品牌高端化和把握抖音等新兴电商渠道是破局关键，行业集中度提升将 带来投资机会。 饲料企业积极拓展海外市场，尤其在东南亚、非洲和南美等地，凭借技 术、管理和服务优势实现增长，海外市场潜力巨大，为饲料企业带来新 的增长点。 智能农业装备领域"机器换人"趋势加速，无人机、机器人和 AI 技术融 合降低成本，解决农村劳动力短缺问题，智能农业装备产业链迎来发展 机遇。 宠物医疗行业连锁化率提升空间大，龙头企业通过股权激励和分级诊疗 模式提升竞争力，行业集中化进程加速，利好具有竞争优势的连锁品牌。 动保行业国产替代加速，尤其在宠物疫苗领域，国产猫三联疫苗打破进 口垄断。企业加大 mRNA 疫苗等前沿技术研发，提升核心竞争力。 玉米市场供需平衡表边际改善，库存消费比下降，预计价格回暖趋势延 续。大豆市场供给压力有所缓解，南美产量预期将影响未来价格走势。 Q&A 请简要回顾 2025 年的农业板块投资 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is optimistic [2] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook on humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and process industries, indicating strong growth potential in these sectors [2][12] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is expected to remain robust, driven by advancements in AI technology and government policies supporting the industry [12][62] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance in the humanoid robot sector, AI infrastructure, engineering machinery, process industries, and cutting tools [13][57] Summary by Sections Company Insights - **Riyuan Technology**: The company is a leading supplier of industrial X-ray intelligent detection equipment, with a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in new orders and a 44.01% revenue growth in the first three quarters [3][13] - **Kangst**: The company specializes in digital detection instruments, showing resilience in international business despite tariff pressures, with a Q3 revenue growth of 22.24% [4][14] - **Xinxin Co., Ltd.**: The company reported a significant acceleration in profit growth, with a 75.40% increase in net profit in Q3, driven by effective cost management amid rising raw material prices [5][15] Industry Performance - The excavator sales in November reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, indicating a recovery in the engineering machinery sector [12][62] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure continues to grow, supported by government policies and technological advancements, with significant benefits expected for the AIDC, liquid cooling, and PCB equipment sectors [12][62] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the engineering machinery sector, which is showing signs of recovery, particularly in excavators and loaders [62][69] Market Trends - The manufacturing PMI in November was reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery, primarily driven by export orders [25] - The report notes that the domestic manufacturing fixed asset investment growth has slowed, reflecting weaker downstream demand and external pressures [25][67] - The report highlights the ongoing support from government policies aimed at enhancing the industrial machinery sector, particularly in high-end machine tools and robotics [29][36]

Core Insights - The rise of automation and robotics is fundamentally changing the labor landscape, leading to a shift in human roles from primary operators to auxiliary supporters [1][2][3] - The concept of "technological unemployment" has resurfaced, with workers expressing anxiety over job security as machines increasingly replace human labor [3][11] - Different age groups of workers exhibit varying attitudes towards automation, influenced by their life stages and responsibilities [5][10] Group 1: Automation and Its Impact - Automation is not just enhancing production efficiency but is also reshaping daily life and work practices, with technologies like self-service kiosks and AI-driven services becoming commonplace [2] - The introduction of industrial robots and CNC machines in factories is leading to a significant reduction in the need for human labor, raising concerns about job displacement [2][3] Group 2: Worker Perspectives - Younger workers tend to be less concerned about job loss due to automation, viewing it as an opportunity to explore different roles, while middle-aged workers prioritize job stability and express more anxiety [5][10] - Older workers nearing retirement often show indifference to automation trends, as they have fulfilled their primary responsibilities and are less likely to be affected by job displacement [5][10] Group 3: Case Studies of Worker Experiences - In a case study of a Japanese automotive seat manufacturing company, the introduction of welding robots led to significant job losses among skilled welders, who faced reduced wages and job security [11][12] - Despite initial resistance, workers ultimately had to negotiate reduced benefits and accept the reality of job cuts, highlighting the challenges of collective action in the face of automation [12][13] Group 4: Opportunities and Challenges - Some workers embrace technological advancements, believing that acquiring new skills in automation and robotics can lead to better job prospects and upward mobility [16][18] - However, the rapid pace of technological change means that workers must continuously invest in their education and skills to remain competitive, as knowledge can quickly become obsolete [18][19]

Core Insights - The welding robot industry is experiencing a significant opportunity as it becomes a core component of industrial automation, with a surge in financing events and investments in key areas such as precision control and intelligent algorithms [1][2][3] Industry Overview - The Chinese welding industry is at a historical turning point with a shortage of 300,000 to 400,000 welders annually, and younger generations showing reluctance to pursue this profession [2][79] - The complexity and irregularity of workpieces create scenarios where traditional robots struggle, highlighting the need for advanced solutions [2][80] Market Dynamics - The welding robot sector has seen 16 financing events this year, with significant investments from major firms focusing on high-precision control and core components [1] - The domestic demand for welding robots is driven by a combination of labor shortages, a push for automation, and advancements in AI and digital twin technologies [1][9] Competitive Landscape - Traditional robot manufacturers are stable in their processes but lag in intelligent applications, creating opportunities for startups to capture market share in specific industry solutions [4][84] - The market is shifting towards a large-scale replacement of manual labor in various sectors, including steel structures and renewable energy, due to rising labor costs and fragmented production batches [5][86] Technological Advancements - The integration of AI, vision, and control algorithms has made significant strides, enabling robots to perform tasks that were previously challenging for automation [3][81] - The next two years (2024-2026) are seen as a critical window for growth, with advancements in AI models and decreasing sensor costs [9][93] Application Scenarios - Intelligent welding robots are particularly suited for non-standardized production environments where workpieces change frequently, making them ideal for small batch production [8][90] - The market for welding robots is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a global market size of approximately $8.5 to $10.4 billion by 2025, with China accounting for over 35% of this market [43] Future Trends - The evolution of welding robots from simple automation tools to intelligent systems capable of self-adjusting and decision-making is anticipated over the next three years [96] - The cost of welding robots is expected to decrease, making them more accessible to a wider range of manufacturers, particularly in complex and diverse welding tasks [97][98]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights a significant growth in the sales of excavators and loaders, with excavator sales reaching 18,096 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and loader sales increasing by 27.7% [12][58] - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with companies like Xiaopeng and ZhiYuan launching new models aimed for mass production by 2026 [12][55] - The report emphasizes the resilience of companies like Rihuan Technology and Kangst, which have shown strong revenue growth despite external pressures [3][4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Company Highlights - Rihuan Technology, a leading supplier of industrial X-ray intelligent detection equipment, saw a nearly 100% increase in new orders year-on-year and a 44.01% revenue growth in the first three quarters [3] - Kangst, involved in digital detection instruments, reported a 22.24% increase in revenue and a 30.66% increase in net profit in Q3, demonstrating strong operational resilience [4][14] - Newrui Co., which produces hard alloys and tools, experienced a significant profit increase of 75.40% in Q3, driven by effective cost management amid rising raw material prices [5][15] 2. Industry Trends - The machinery sector is witnessing a broad recovery, with excavator and loader sales showing strong growth, indicating a positive trend in construction and infrastructure investment [12][58] - The humanoid robot market is set for significant growth, with advancements in technology and increasing investments from major companies [12][55] 3. Market Performance - The machinery index saw a slight decline of 0.25% last week, while other major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.08% [16] - The report notes that the machinery industry is experiencing varied performance across sub-sectors, with some segments like power distribution equipment showing strong gains [22] 4. Policy Support - Recent government policies are aimed at enhancing the industrial machinery sector, including support for high-end machine tools and automation technologies [28][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the machinery equipment industry [2]. Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing continuous catalysts, with significant attention on the upcoming Q3 earnings reports [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in humanoid robots and PCB equipment, alongside a focus on industries like process engineering and construction machinery that are expected to show improved performance [3][14]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Tesla announced plans to scale up humanoid robot production, aiming to launch the third generation by the end of 2025 and start mass production in 2026 [12][58]. - Figure AI introduced the Figure03, designed for household tasks, with a manufacturing base targeting an initial annual capacity of 12,000 units and a total of 100,000 units over four years [12][58]. Machinery Sales Performance - In August, excavator sales reached 16,523 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with domestic sales up 14.8% and exports up 11.1% [13][68]. - Loader sales also showed strong growth, with 9,440 units sold in August, reflecting a 13.3% increase year-on-year [76]. Company Highlights 1. **Lvtian Machinery** - Focuses on general power machinery and has begun mass production of energy storage products. Projected net profit growth rates for Q3 2024 to Q2 2025 are 24.1%, 55.9%, 56.3%, and 70.4% respectively [3][14]. 2. **Rilian Technology** - A leading supplier of industrial X-ray inspection equipment, with a nearly 100% increase in new orders and a 38.34% revenue growth year-on-year [4][15]. 3. **Xinxin Shares** - Specializes in hard alloy tools, reporting a revenue growth of 28.97% and a net profit increase of 2.88% in the first half of the year [5][16]. Market Trends - The manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight recovery, with production indices improving [26]. - The report notes a significant increase in industrial profits, with a year-on-year growth of 20.4% in August, driven by a low base from the previous year [26][34]. Policy Support - Continuous government support for the humanoid robot industry is noted, with local governments actively implementing development plans [61][62].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that smart agricultural equipment is a key lever for ensuring food security, aligning with the "storing grain in the ground and technology" strategy, and that the "machine substitution" trend is at a critical opportunity phase [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Opportunities - Smart agricultural equipment is identified as a core tool for food security, with the 2025 Central Document No. 1 listing "smart agricultural machinery and smart agriculture" as part of "new agricultural productivity" [2]. - The core sectors include smart tractors and harvesters, which have significant room for technological upgrades, while agricultural drones align with China's unique agricultural characteristics [2]. - The scale of China's agricultural machinery and agricultural drones is projected to be approximately 300 billion and 29 billion yuan in 2024, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The trend of "machine substitution" is driven by rural labor reduction, rising costs, and decreasing equipment costs, marking an industrialization inflection point [2]. - The mechanization rate in the "management" segment of farming is the lowest, with estimates suggesting that agricultural drones could save over 100 billion yuan annually in pesticide costs [2]. - The penetration rates for large horsepower, power-shifting, and smart tractors in 2024 are projected to be 10.7%, 3.7%, and 3.8%, respectively [2]. Group 3: Policy Support - Policies are increasingly favoring high-quality machinery, with agricultural machinery purchase subsidies expected to rebound to a historical high of 24.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 10% from 2020 to 2024 [2]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by high technical barriers, deep service moats, and strong ecological stickiness, with the CR3 for agricultural drones, smart agricultural machinery, and agricultural machinery being 88%, 71%, and 48% respectively in 2024 [3].