证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 舍得酒业（600702） 2025 中报点评：筑底企稳，盈利修复 2025 年 08 月 24 日 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,087 | 5,357 | 4,784 | 5,277 | 5,950 | | 同比（%） | 17.04 | (24.41) | (10.70) | 10.31 | 12.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,769.39 | 345.77 | 637.37 | 779.36 | 979.93 | | 同比（%） | 4.98 | (80.46) | 84.33 | 22.28 | 25.74 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 5.31 | 1.04 | 1.91 | 2.34 | 2.94 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 11.47 | 58.68 | 31.83 | 26.03 | 20.71 | [Ta ...

8月22日，沪深两融数据显示，舍得酒业获融资买入额0.93亿元，居两市第343位，当日融资偿还额1.01 亿元，净卖出755.32万元。 融券方面，当日融券卖出0.00万股，净卖出0.00万股。 最近三个交易日，20日-22日，舍得酒业分别获融资买入2.33亿元、1.67亿元、0.93亿元。 ...

证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 公告编号：2025-20 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 第九届董事会第九次会议决议公告 本公司及其董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 具体内容详见 2025 年 8 月 23 日刊载在巨潮资讯网上的《2025 年半年度报告》《2025 年半年度报告摘要》。 表决结果：同意 9 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 公司对组织架构进行调整，实施扁平化管理以减少管理层级，由 四级调整为三级，撤并部分中心部门，调整后划分为三大部分：职能 体系、工厂体系、营销体系，进一步优化人力资源配置，提高决策效 率。 表决结果：同意 9 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 的风险持续评估报告》 具体内容详见 2025 年 8 月 23 日刊载在巨潮资讯网上的《关于与 中粮财务公司关联存、贷款等金融业务的风险持续评估报告》。 公司关联董事高峰、郑轶、程军回避表决。 表决结果：同意 6 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 酒鬼酒股份有限公司董事会 一、董事会会议召开情况 酒鬼酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）第九届 董事会第九次会议通知于 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has launched a new strategic product "Dazhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 888 RMB, targeting the market for high-quality liquor priced around 2000 RMB, responding to rational consumption trends [1] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Strategy - The new product features a five-year base liquor and is complemented by over 20 years of aged liquor for flavoring, emphasizing its rarity and quality [1] - The product's packaging design is minimalist, enhancing its high-end recognition, and aims to penetrate market demand through its quality-price ratio [1] - The company aims to build a strong trust chain among manufacturers, merchants, and consumers, focusing on creating a market-impacting phenomenon with this product [1] Group 2: Innovative Business Model - The "Wanshang Alliance" model ensures transparent pricing at the terminal level, with strict channel control by the manufacturer to secure high channel profits [2] - The company employs a four-tier supervision mechanism involving sales personnel, alliance merchants, auditors, and headquarters, which has already led to the expulsion of over 20 non-compliant merchants [2] - The company anticipates reaching 5,000 to 8,000 signed merchants by 2026, with current signed merchants at 2,116, and sees potential for further client conversion from competitors [2] Group 3: Marketing and Sales Outlook - The company plans to adjust its marketing strategy in 2025, focusing on inventory clearance, with stable channel order in key provinces like Guizhou, Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong [3] - The company expects sales volume recovery in the future as the market stabilizes, particularly for its existing products [3] - The company has revised its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.27 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting growth potential driven by the new product [3]

Group 1 - The low-alcohol beverage segment in the Chinese liquor market is gaining momentum, with major companies like Gujing Gongjiu and Shede Liquor launching new products [6][7][8] - Companies are responding to declining sales and high inventory levels by introducing low-alcohol products to attract younger consumers and expand market demand [7][11][12] - The overall inventory of 20 listed liquor companies reached 168.39 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase in stock levels and underscoring the need for new consumer demand [8][11] Group 2 - Gujing Gongjiu launched its first low-alcohol product, "Gujing Gongjiu·Nianfen Yuanjiang Light 20," with an alcohol content of 26 degrees, targeting urban young professionals [6][24] - The pricing strategy for Gujing Gongjiu's new product has raised questions about its acceptance among the target demographic, as it is priced at 375 yuan for 375ml, which translates to approximately 500 yuan for 500ml [22][24] - The competition in the low-alcohol segment is intensifying, with other major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also preparing to launch similar products, potentially impacting consumer attention and market dynamics [18][27]

Market Performance - The three major stock indices experienced fluctuations in the morning but rallied in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and STAR Market Index all reaching new highs for the year [1] - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04% to 3766.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.89% to 11926.74 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.23% to 2607.65 points [2] Trading Volume and Market Activity - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 24.489 trillion yuan, with nearly 3700 stocks closing in the green [1] - There were 86 stocks hitting the daily limit up, with a limit-up rate of 80% (excluding ST and delisted stocks) [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains in the afternoon, with companies like Cambrian Intelligence reaching a historical high [1] - Consumer stocks, particularly in the liquor sector, rebounded, with companies like Jiu Gui Jiu achieving consecutive limit-ups [1] - The consumer electronics sector also showed strong performance, with stocks like Anjie Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - Conversely, high-priced stocks collectively fell, with several stocks, including Zhongheng Electric, hitting the daily limit down [1] Notable Stocks - Ji Min Health achieved a five-day limit-up streak, while companies in the automotive supply chain, such as Tenglong Co., had five limit-ups in six days [1] - The computing power industry saw stocks like Electronic City and Hanzhong Precision Machinery performing well, with multiple consecutive limit-ups [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the significance of the Palace Museum, which celebrates its 100th anniversary this year, as a cultural and historical treasure in China [2][6][8] - The Palace Museum houses over 1.8 million valuable artifacts, showcasing China's long history and splendid civilization [8][9] - The establishment of the Palace Museum was a monumental effort to preserve national treasures that were at risk of being lost during tumultuous times in the 20th century [5][6] Group 2 - The article introduces the "Jiulongbi Commemorative Wine," a special product celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Palace Museum, developed by the three renowned families of Chinese liquor: Lai, Wang, and Hua [11][22][30] - This commemorative wine has won multiple awards, including the gold medal at the Brussels International Spirits Awards, highlighting its quality and prestige [26][46] - The wine is marketed as a cultural and collectible item, combining elements of cultural heritage and modern craftsmanship, making it suitable for gifting and personal enjoyment [17][80][87] Group 3 - The Jiulongbi Commemorative Wine is produced using high-quality local ingredients, including glutinous sorghum and water from the Chishui River, following traditional brewing techniques that take several years [54][61][70] - The production process involves a meticulous method that includes multiple fermentation and distillation steps, ensuring a refined flavor profile [56][58][66] - The wine is presented in a beautifully designed bottle that reflects cultural significance, making it not only a beverage but also a piece of art [16][33][82]

Market Overview - Volatility has returned to Wall Street, with major indexes losing gains over the past couple of months due to uncertainty over the next rate cut and the impact of President Trump's tariffs on consumer sentiment [1][8] - Consumer sentiment fell in July, with the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index dropping to 58.6% from 61.7% in June, missing analysts' expectations [4][10] Consumer Sentiment and Inflation - Households are expecting prices of goods to rise due to higher tariffs, leading to a decline in consumer sentiment [5][10] - Short-term inflation expectations worsened, with the projected 12-month inflation outlook rising to 4.9% in July from 4.5% in June, and the five-year inflation outlook increasing to 3.9% from 3.4% [5] Investment Recommendations - Given the current market conditions, it may be wise to focus on safe-haven stocks such as utilities and consumer staples, with Fortis, Inc. (FTS), New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR), ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS), and Diageo plc (DEO) highlighted as attractive options [2][10] - These recommended stocks are categorized as low-beta stocks (beta greater than 0 but less than 1) with high dividend yields and favorable Zacks Ranks [3] Company Profiles Fortis, Inc. - Engaged in the electric and gas utility business, operating primarily in Canada, the United States, and the Caribbean [9] - Expected earnings growth rate of 4.6% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 2 and a current dividend yield of 3.51% [11] New Jersey Resources Corporation - An energy services holding company providing natural gas and clean energy services [12] - Expected earnings growth rate of 12% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 1 and a current dividend yield of 3.83% [13] ONE Gas, Inc. - A regulated natural gas distribution utility serving over 2.3 million customers in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas [14] - Expected earnings growth rate of 10.5% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 2 and a current dividend yield of 3.54% [14] Diageo plc - Operates in approximately 180 countries, producing and distributing spirits, wine, and beer [15] - Expected earnings growth rate of 3.5% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 2 and a current dividend yield of 2.87% [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Guizhou Moutai's half-year report shows a decline in revenue and net profit growth, with both figures dropping to single digits year-on-year [2] Group 2 - For the first half of the year, Guizhou Moutai reported revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan [2] - The year-on-year growth rates for both revenue and net profit have decreased significantly, indicating potential challenges for the company [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is shifting focus towards low-alcohol beverages to attract younger consumers, as traditional high-alcohol products face declining demand due to changing social and economic dynamics [1][3][22]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Major liquor brands like Wuliangye, Yanghe, and Luzhou Laojiao are launching low-alcohol products, indicating a strategic pivot in the industry [1][2][4]. - The market for low-alcohol beverages is becoming a competitive battleground, with brands aiming to capture new consumer segments, particularly younger demographics [3][22]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Preferences - Younger consumers show a preference for low-alcohol options, with over 60% indicating a dislike for the strong taste of high-alcohol liquor [13][19]. - The traditional high-alcohol products, which dominated the market, are losing appeal as social drinking habits evolve [8][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The decline in business banquets and the changing labor market are contributing to reduced demand for high-alcohol beverages [8][10]. - The rise of alternative alcoholic beverages, such as craft beer and flavored spirits, is intensifying competition for traditional liquor brands [22][23]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Companies are investing in innovative marketing strategies and product designs to appeal to younger consumers, including collaborations with designers and the introduction of trendy packaging [18][20]. - The focus on creating a vibrant drinking culture, akin to bar scenes in other countries, is seen as essential for engaging younger consumers [19][27]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is entering a phase of "infinite games," where brands must continuously adapt and redefine their market boundaries to sustain growth [27][28]. - The shift towards low-alcohol products is just one aspect of a broader strategy to innovate and capture new market opportunities in a changing consumer landscape [28].