本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者黄兴利 北京报道 曾以高成长性被视为白酒板块黑马、业绩一路高歌的今世缘（603369.SH），在此轮行业深度调整中也 未能独善其身。8月25日晚间披露的半年报显示：其营收与净利润双双承压下滑，而被视作业绩"蓄水 池"的合同负债更是骤降，折射出行业低迷周期下区域酒企面临的重重压力。 纵然这个夏天，今世缘凭借赞助"苏超"加大了品牌曝光度，但暂时并未能给业绩注入实质利好。当前白 酒深度调整仍未落幕，最艰难的挑战或许还在前方。在被问及行业何时迎来实质性转机时，今世缘方面 于近期投资者交流纪要中坦言："预计行业实质性好转可能在2026年下半年出现。2025年四季度环比降 幅或可改善，尽管去年同期基数较低，同比能否持平仍难预判。" 业绩骤降，高端承压 最新披露的半年报显示，今年上半年，今世缘实现营业收入69.50亿元，同比下滑4.84%；归属于上市公 司股东的净利润为22.29亿元，同比减少9.46%。值得注意的是，这是自2020年以来其半年度业绩首次出 现明显降速。 省内失速，省外难撑 今世缘过度依赖省内市场的结构性问题，在2025年上半年成绩单中被进一步放大。 从市场布局 ...

文丨华策咨询陆勇 2025年，当白酒行业还在为高端市场的增长瓶颈焦虑时，一个意想不到的战场悄然引爆——光瓶酒。这个曾经被视为"低端代名词"的品类，突然成为名酒 企业竞相布局的"香饽饽"。从茅台、五粮液到泸州老窖，从区域龙头到新锐品牌，光瓶酒赛道挤满了"大玩家"。名酒为何集体转向？是消费降级的无奈之 举，还是行业变革的深层信号？这场看似"反常"的布局，或将彻底改写白酒行业的竞争逻辑。 光瓶酒的逆袭：从"边缘"到"中心"的蜕变 光瓶酒，即无外包装盒、直接以玻璃瓶销售的白酒，曾长期被贴上"廉价""低端"的标签。然而，2025年数据显示，光瓶酒市场规模突破1500亿元，年复合 增长率达18%，远超白酒行业平均水平。这一现象背后，是消费逻辑的深刻变化。 名酒扎堆入局：一场"不得不打"的战役 面对光瓶酒市场的爆发，名酒企业为何集体"下场"？这背后既有短期业绩压力，也有长期战略考量。 1.业绩压力下的"第二曲线" 2025年，白酒行业整体增速放缓，高端市场饱和，竞争白热化。名酒企业需要通过新品类打开增长空间。光瓶酒的毛利率虽低于高端酒，但周转率高、受 众广，是典型的"薄利多销"模式，在当前环境背景下成为重要的"第二增长曲线 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beer Holdings Company Limited reported a revenue of 23.94 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8% while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 23% to 5.789 billion yuan [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved an EBITDA of 7.691 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.8% [2] - The board declared an interim dividend of 0.464 yuan per share, up 24.4% from the same period last year [2] - Beer sales volume reached approximately 6.487 million kiloliters, marking a 2.2% increase year-on-year [2] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company emphasizes a high-end development strategy, with a notable performance in the high-end beer segment, which has seen double-digit growth over the past two years [2] - The average selling price of beer increased by 0.4% due to ongoing high-end development and cost savings in raw material procurement [2] - The gross margin for the beer business rose by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 3: White Spirit Business - The white spirit segment generated a revenue of 781 million yuan, with an EBITDA of 218 million yuan [3] - The company is adapting to market changes by adjusting its product structure and plans to launch boxed and light bottle spirits at a price point of around 100 yuan [3] - The company maintains a positive growth trajectory despite challenges in the white spirit market, attributed to its diversified product matrix and extensive channel coverage [3]

Core Insights - The light bottle liquor segment is becoming increasingly popular in the Chinese liquor industry, with companies targeting this market due to changing consumer demands [2][3] - The market size for light bottle liquor is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025, indicating significant growth potential [3] Industry Trends - Light bottle liquor, defined as liquor packaged in glass bottles without additional gift boxes or elaborate decorations, has gained attention in the market [2] - Major liquor companies such as Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Co., Ltd., Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd., and Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. have launched new products in this category [2] - The growth of light bottle liquor is driven by a shift in consumer preferences towards quality and price balance, moving away from the traditional "face engineering" consumption [2][3] Market Dynamics - The market size of light bottle liquor has grown from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to 98.8 billion yuan in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.8% [3] - The market is expected to surpass 150 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant increase in the "high-end light bottle" segment priced between 50 to 100 yuan, projected to grow over 40% [3] - The current market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with no clear tiered structure among competitors, indicating potential for increased competition in the future [3] Consumer Behavior - There is a notable shift in consumer demand towards high-quality, cost-effective light bottle liquor, reflecting a broader trend of rational consumption among younger demographics [2][3] - The transformation of light bottle liquor from a "supplementary role" to a "mainstream choice" is reshaping the industry landscape, with products now spanning various price ranges from low-end to premium offerings [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the liquor industry, highlighting the cross-industry expansion of traditional liquor brands into the craft beer market, the growth of the bottled liquor segment, and the emergence of new retail channels for liquor sales [2][3][5][8]. Industry Environment - Major liquor brands from Sichuan are entering the craft beer market, leveraging their existing brand and distribution advantages. This move is seen as a strategy to attract younger consumers and expand consumption scenarios [3][4]. - The bottled liquor market has surpassed 150 billion yuan, with expectations to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025. Competition is intensifying as brands launch new products priced under 60 yuan [5]. - Black Ge Consulting identified nine key insights into the liquor industry, including the rise of local brands and the trend towards lower alcohol content products, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to changing consumer preferences [5]. - High-end liquor brands are encouraged to adopt strategies from luxury brands like Hermes and Ferrari, focusing on scarcity and emotional resonance rather than just price competition [6][7]. New Retail Channels - New retail formats such as Sam's Club and Hema are reshaping liquor sales, offering competitive pricing and direct sourcing, which is attracting consumers and providing new growth channels for liquor companies [8]. - The recent adjustments to the "ban on alcohol" policy have led to a gradual recovery in dining consumption, particularly in regions like Henan, although high-end dining remains sluggish [9]. - Despite a seasonal slowdown, liquor companies are actively transforming their strategies to focus on consumer engagement and experience, moving from a channel-driven approach to a user-driven model [10]. Craft Beer Market - The craft beer segment is rapidly growing, with over 13,584 related enterprises in China as of July 2023, indicating a vibrant competitive landscape [11]. - Traditional liquor brands are launching lower-alcohol products to appeal to younger consumers, although challenges remain in maintaining flavor and quality [12]. Digital Transformation - The liquor industry is leveraging digital assets for growth, with companies reporting significant increases in sales and inventory turnover through innovative digital strategies [13]. Brand Dynamics - The Guojian brand is focusing on national expansion, emphasizing quality and cultural elements to enhance its market presence [14]. - The Swan Lake winery has successfully marketed its zodiac wines, achieving significant sales figures despite industry challenges [15]. - Changyu's innovative marketing strategies in sports events have successfully engaged consumers and enhanced brand visibility [16]. - The Fenjiu brand is exploring new consumer experiences through immersive cultural events, aiming to connect with younger audiences [17]. Market Challenges - Budweiser APAC reported a 24.4% drop in net profit, primarily due to a sluggish Chinese market and increased competition in both the low and high-end segments [20]. - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with companies needing to adapt to changing consumer demands and market dynamics to remain competitive [21][22].

Core Insights - The light bottle liquor market in China is experiencing intense competition, with major brands like Yanghe, Yilite, and Yangshao launching new products priced under 60 yuan, aiming for national expansion [1][2] - The market size of the light bottle liquor industry has grown from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to 98.8 billion yuan in 2021, with projections to exceed 150 billion yuan by 2024 and 200 billion yuan by 2025 [1][3] - The shift towards rational consumption and the demand for high cost-performance products are driving the growth of the light bottle liquor segment, as consumers prioritize quality and price [3][4] Industry Trends - The light bottle liquor segment is becoming a key focus for many liquor companies as they adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions [3][4] - The introduction of new national standards is expected to eliminate inferior products, further enhancing the quality of light bottle liquors [3][4] - The competition in the light bottle liquor market is intensifying, with numerous brands vying for market share, particularly in lower-tier cities [4][5] Company Strategies - Yilite has launched its light bottle liquor strategy with products priced at 28 yuan and 35 yuan, aiming for a national presence by 2028 [1][2] - Yanghe's new product, Yanghe Daqu, is positioned as a strategic offering to capture the expanding light bottle liquor market, leveraging its extensive distribution network [2][5] - Companies are increasingly focusing on direct-to-consumer (To C) strategies, requiring strong communication capabilities to reach consumers effectively [6][7] Market Dynamics - The light bottle liquor market is characterized by a high density of competition, with established brands like Shunpinlang and Green Neck Xifeng dominating in lower-tier markets [4][5] - The market is witnessing a trend of brands utilizing innovative marketing strategies, such as collaborations with e-commerce platforms and community group buying, to enhance market penetration [6][7] - The rise of instant retail and digital supply chains is seen as a critical factor for the future growth of the light bottle liquor segment [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Yanghe, once a leading player in the Chinese liquor industry, is facing significant challenges following a leadership change and declining financial performance, prompting a strategic pivot towards lower-priced products to regain market share [2][4][22]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Yanghe's former chairman, Zhang Liandong, resigned unexpectedly in July 2024, just a week after promoting a new product that received mixed reviews [2][4]. - Gu Yu, a 47-year-old local official with no prior experience in liquor sales, was appointed as the new chairman, marking a significant shift in leadership [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Yanghe's revenue fell by 12.83% to 28.876 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 33.37% to 6.673 billion yuan, resulting in a decline in industry ranking from third to fifth [4][9][11]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw further declines, with net profit plummeting by 40% [4][15]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Yanghe is grappling with high inventory levels, unclear brand positioning, and a loss of trust among distributors, with inventory turnover days soaring to 898 days in 2024 [7][17]. - The company's core products, particularly the high-end "Dream Blue," are struggling to sell, and competition from brands like Jinshiyuan and Shanxi Fenjiu is intensifying [4][33]. Group 4: Strategic Shift - Yanghe has launched a new low-cost product, a 59 yuan light bottle liquor, in collaboration with JD.com, which quickly sold out, indicating a potential shift towards the mass market [22][24]. - The company aims to leverage its existing inventory of 700,000 tons of aged base liquor to support this new product line and reduce inventory pressure [7][24]. Group 5: Industry Context - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with high-end liquor demand weakening and a shift towards value-driven products as consumers become more price-sensitive [25][26]. - Yanghe's challenges reflect broader industry trends, including increased competition and changing consumer preferences, necessitating a reevaluation of its market strategy [26][37].

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period characterized by "stock competition + structural upgrade" [2] - Black Consulting Group's chairman Xu Wei presented nine key insights regarding the current trends in the liquor industry [2] Group 1: Nine Key Insights - Insight 1: The decline of "official liquor" and the rise of "popular liquor," indicating a shift towards market-oriented operations focusing on mass demand [4] - Insight 3: National brands are losing profits while local brands are filling the profit gap through regional deep cultivation and differentiated pricing [6] - Insight 4: The three main aroma types of liquor (strong, light, and sauce) are entering a balanced development phase, although overall consumption is declining [6] - Insight 5: The industry will experience a "five waves coexistence" phenomenon, including waves of layoffs, store closures, and market corrections [6] - Insight 6: The health liquor market may see localized growth, but there are risks associated with blindly following high-end trends [6] - Insight 7: The drinking scene is shifting towards private and customized settings, requiring companies to build private traffic pools [6] - Insight 8: The promotion of low-alcohol products is linked to price adjustments, with potential growth in the low-price market [6] - Insight 9: Differentiation in aroma popularity, with the sauce liquor market showing "no upper limit" in pricing, while light aroma products are trending towards "no lower limit" [6] Group 2: Six Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces six major challenges, including consumption energy constraints, deteriorating competition, strained manufacturer relationships, channel transformation, inventory issues, and economic constraints [10] - There are six major opportunities, such as the nationalization of light aroma products, opportunities in bottle liquor, regional advantages, growth in mass-packaged liquor, concentration of brand advantages, and a consumer trend towards quality [10] - A case study from the high-gou liquor brand in Nanjing illustrates successful strategies for increasing brand visibility and market presence [10] Group 3: Additional Insights and Discussions - The annual meeting featured discussions on breaking through the bottle liquor era, innovative business models, and the integration of blockchain technology in the liquor industry [12] - Roundtable forums were held to explore topics like instant retail in the liquor industry and innovation driven by major distributors [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing severe challenges in 2025 due to a combination of policy adjustments, consumption structure transformation, and deep competition, leading to declining production, prices, and profits [2][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Major liquor companies such as Shunxin Agriculture, Shui Jing Fang, and Jiu Gui Jiu have reported significant declines in net profits, with some experiencing drops of over 90% [2][3]. - The overall industry is experiencing a "volume and price decline," with production volume down 7.6% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, and a cumulative decline of 69.5% from 2016 to 2024 [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight increase in revenue of 0.38% for large-scale liquor enterprises, but total profits decreased by 0.73%, indicating a clear downward trend [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry is facing "three heavy cold currents": persistent price fluctuations, high inventory levels, and a collapse in consumption scenarios [8][10][11]. - Price declines are evident, with liquor prices dropping by 2.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and over 60% of companies experiencing price inversions [8][9]. - Inventory pressure is significant, with an average inventory turnover period of 900 days, and over 58% of distributors reporting increased stock levels [10][11]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Consumer demand is shifting towards more rational spending, with a notable decrease in high-end liquor purchases and a preference for lower-priced products [12][13]. - The traditional consumption scenarios, such as business banquets and gift-giving, are shrinking, leading to a decline in sales during peak seasons [11][12]. - The rise of low-alcohol and foreign liquor preferences among younger consumers is further diluting the market for traditional liquor [11][12]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Liquor companies are urged to adapt by targeting the mass market with affordable and quality products, as the market for low-cost liquor is expected to grow significantly [14]. - Product innovation is essential, with a focus on lower alcohol content to meet the health-conscious preferences of younger consumers [14]. - Companies are exploring new sales channels, including online platforms and instant retail, to enhance market reach and efficiency [14][15].

Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.09%, while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index rose by 0.87% during the week of July 14-18, 2025 [1] - The top five performing stocks in the food and beverage sector were Huangshi Group, Baihe Co., Huashanghuan, Luzhou Laojiao, and Zhuangyuan Pasture [1] Institutional Insights - Tianfeng Securities recommends focusing on leading liquor companies benefiting from concentration increases, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Kweichow Moutai [2] - The firm also highlights strong consumer goods companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies, suggesting stocks like Lihai Food and Ximai Food [2] - Guosheng Securities anticipates pressure on the liquor sector in the first half of the year, advising attention to leading brands and high-certainty regional wines [3] Macro Events - The National Consumer Goods Industry Conference emphasized measures to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, focusing on strategic planning for the consumer goods industry [4] - The conference highlighted the importance of technological innovation and the integration of digital solutions across various sectors, including food and beverage [4] Agricultural Supply - The Ministry of Agriculture reported sufficient supply of "vegetable basket" products, with meat production reaching 48.43 million tons in the first half of the year, a 2.8% increase year-on-year [5][7] - Milk production was 1.864 million tons, reflecting a 0.5% growth, while the overall agricultural value added increased by 3.7% [6][7] Industry News - The import of liquor saw a significant increase of 47.3% in the first five months of 2025, primarily driven by the return of white liquor, despite an overall decline in liquor imports [8] - The white liquor sector is experiencing a rational return, with second-tier brands facing challenges and price compression [9] - The RTD (Ready-to-Drink) segment is projected to grow, contrasting with the decline in traditional liquor categories [10] Company Developments - The light bottle liquor market is expanding, with expectations to reach approximately 150 billion yuan by 2024, as consumers seek cost-effective options [11] - McDonald's China reported over 90% of its supply chain sourced locally, with plans to open 1,000 new restaurants this year [13]