日本经济新闻使用名为"均衡失业率"这一反映不易受到经济形势变化影响的结构性失业程度的数值，通 过完全失业率减去均衡失业率得出的差值计算出"失业率缺口"。均衡失业率根据日本厚生劳动省的"一 般职业介绍状况"以及总务省的劳动力调查计算得出。 募集兼职的广告（东京都丰岛区） "完全就业"是指凡是有工作意愿和能力的人都能有工作机会。日本接近于"完全就业"状态的持续时长已 超过泡沫经济时期的50个月，创下了战后第二长纪录。背后原因是长期的劳动力短缺。但日本当前的就 业环境已显示出变化迹象…… 据普华永道咨询（PwC Consulting）的伊藤笃介绍，失业率缺口为负意味着劳动力短缺，为正则表明就 业环境恶化。 2021年1月至2025年11月，日本的失业率缺口已连续59个月为负。超过了泡沫经济时期的1988年9月～ 1992年10月的50个月。受新冠疫情影响，2020年曾一度转为正值，如果剔除这一阶段，则自2015年2月 以来已持续10年以上呈现负值。 在日本，接近于"完全就业"（凡是有工作意愿和能力的人都能有工作机会）的状态已持续59个月。这一 时长超过了日本泡沫经济时期的50个月，仅次于经济高速增长期的148个月， ...

Core Viewpoint - The central government is addressing formalism and reducing burdens on grassroots levels, highlighting issues with local governments spending excessively on consulting services to improve rankings on various lists [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Expenditures and Consulting Services - Haicheng City spent 4.98 million yuan on a consulting project with a ranking evaluation agency to improve its position on a "Top County" list [4]. - The consulting project failed to provide valuable development suggestions tailored to local conditions, and the project acceptance was merely formal [4]. - The ranking agency adjusted Haicheng's score from 118th to 91st by increasing subjective indicators during the 2025 ranking process [4][5]. Group 2: Implications of Rankings and Local Governance - Local governments are reportedly spending money to achieve rankings on lists like "Top Counties" and "Top Towns," which increases the financial burden on grassroots levels and encourages profit-seeking behavior from ranking agencies [5]. - Haicheng City was recognized as one of China's top counties, ranking 91st in the national county economic development list, which was included in its 2025 government work report [5]. Group 3: Company Background and Performance - The ranking agency, CCID Consulting, is the first publicly listed consulting firm in China, with a revenue of approximately 129 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [8]. - The company's gross profit was about 76.79 million yuan, up 12% from the previous year, with a gross margin of 59% [8].

多数企业尚未在AI上取得回报 普华永道全球主席康慕德(Mohamed Kande)在新闻稿中表示："一小部分公司已开始将AI转化为可衡量 的财务回报，而许多其他公司仍在努力推进试点项目。这一差距正逐渐体现在企业信心与竞争力上。对 于尚未采取行动的企业而言，差距将迅速扩大。" 结果显示，超过半数的受访CEO(56%)表示，AI目前尚未为公司带来收入或成本效益。 普华永道发现，那12%同时报告成本下降和收入增长的CEO，其企业建立了强大AI基础的可能性是其他 企业的两到三倍。这意味着他们已在产品与服务、需求创造以及战略决策中广泛应用了AI。 部分CEO报告了收入或成本方面的收益。约三分之一的受访者表示过去一年收入有所增长，26%的受访 者表示通过AI降低了成本。 面对AI的不确定性与地缘政治波动，受访CEO们向普华永道表示，他们对短期增长前景的信心较去年 有所下降。 但是，仅有12%的受访者表示，在过去12个月中，他们通过应用AI同时实现了成本降低与收入增长。 普华永道全球主席康慕德 凤凰网科技讯北京时间1月20日，据《商业内幕》报道，每个人都想知道AI的投资何时能带来回报？根 据普华永道本周一发布的最新全球CE ...

在恶作剧之前考虑一下后果 流浪汉进家门 "爸，门口有个流浪汉，说认识你。" Joe给正在上班的父亲发去一张图片，是一个胡子拉碴的陌生男人站在门口，父亲称并不认识这个人，"他想做什么？" "他说你们俩曾经一起上学，我请他进来了。"之后，Joe又陆续给父亲发去了这个貌似流浪汉的陌生人在翻家里的冰箱、用父亲的牙刷刷牙、甚至在父亲 床上睡觉的图片…… 父亲的电话就像夺命连环call，不停打来，但Joe并不打算接。那头的父亲显然已经焦急万分，"快接我电话！我不认识他！" 在这段将短信往来做成录屏的视频中显示，短短3分钟内，Joe的父亲已经给他打了21个电话，甚至要报警。 之后Joe把这段记录发到TikTok，视频迅速爆火，目前已经接近92万播放量。 ●TikTok用户mmmjoemele的视频 从这个10月开始，一股"AI流浪汉进家门"的恶作剧风潮在TikTok等社交媒体上迅速蔓延。 这股趋势随后蔓延到其他社交平台，如Snapchat、Instagram等，甚至国内的抖音小红书等中文社区，也开始出现类似的搬运视频与模仿拍摄。AI恶作剧正 从海外走向本地。 "harmless prank" 最初网友把这当成一个harml ...

Group 1: Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, is the first full shutdown since 2013, with no immediate signs of reopening [1][2] - The economic impact of the shutdown will depend on its duration; a short shutdown may only delay income, while a prolonged one could alter economic activity and market expectations [2][3] - The White House predicts a weekly loss of $15 billion due to the shutdown, although this figure is considered exaggerated; the last shutdown in 2018 resulted in a GDP loss of $11 billion over five weeks [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics and Government Restructuring - The shutdown provides an opportunity for the White House to restructure government agencies and shift blame onto the Democratic Party [2] - The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is expected to implement significant cuts, including reducing the federal workforce and pressuring Democratic-controlled states [2][3] - The ongoing political struggle between Republicans and Democrats is highlighted, with potential compromises on funding and tax credits being discussed [3] Group 3: Economic Performance of Spain - Spain's economy is growing at approximately 3%, outperforming other Eurozone countries, and has recently received an upgraded credit rating from S&P [4] - The service sector, particularly tourism and IT, has become a key driver of Spain's economic success, aided by EU funds for infrastructure development [4] - Spain's labor reforms have increased flexibility in employment contracts, leading to higher productivity and more full-time job opportunities [4] Group 4: Immigration Policy and Economic Growth in Spain - Spain's immigration policy has attracted a significant number of Spanish-speaking immigrants, contributing to economic growth and addressing labor shortages [5] - The influx of 600,000 new immigrants annually has expanded the tax base and improved government finances, although political stability remains a concern [5] - Spain faces challenges such as high unemployment rates and regulatory burdens that could hinder long-term growth [5] Group 5: Market Focus and Economic Indicators - Upcoming focus includes the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes, OPEC+ production decisions, and U.S. consumer confidence indicators [6] - The impact of the government shutdown on U.S. statistical data is noted, with implications for economic analysis and forecasting [6]

Group 1 - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, with the US tariff war being a significant risk factor that undermines growth momentum [1][5][6] - Developed economies are experiencing slower growth compared to emerging markets, with the US showing signs of economic pressure due to tariff policies [2][3] - The IMF highlights that US trade policies create persistent uncertainty for major global economies, contributing to a fragile economic environment [3][5] Group 2 - Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region are demonstrating resilience and vitality, becoming key drivers of global growth [4] - The global South is emerging as a crucial force in enhancing economic resilience through cooperation and trade diversification [8][9] - China's economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, showcasing strong resilience and development potential, positioning itself as a stabilizing force in the world economy [9][10]

Core Insights - The consulting giant McKinsey views the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) as a critical moment for the industry, with AI becoming a central topic in board meetings and the deployment of thousands of AI agents to assist consultants [1][2] - McKinsey's leadership believes that while AI poses a threat to traditional consulting roles, it also presents an opportunity for the firm to adapt and thrive [1][2] AI Integration in Work Processes - McKinsey has launched approximately 12,000 AI agents to enhance daily operations, with popular tools aiding in writing and logical argument checks [2] - The structure of project teams is evolving, requiring fewer consultants as AI takes on repetitive tasks, making experienced partners more essential [2] Shifts in Business Model and Revenue Structure - Client demands are changing, with fewer companies seeking only strategic advice and more looking for consultants to help implement systems and manage change [3] - About 25% of McKinsey's business now operates on a results-oriented fee model, and AI-related consulting has grown to account for 40% of total revenue [3] Employment and Recruitment Strategy - Despite efficiency gains from AI, McKinsey asserts that it will not resort to layoffs, although the total number of employees has decreased from approximately 45,000 to 40,000 due to overhiring during the pandemic [4] - The company plans to continue hiring but is now focusing on candidates who demonstrate quick learning and teamwork skills [4]