10月31日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜周五延续跌势，受需求疲软预期、美元坚挺以及近 期升至纪录高位后的获利回吐拖累。 伦敦时间10月31日17:00(北京时间11月1日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌29.5美元，或0.27%，收报每吨 10,887.5美元。这是在周三触及11,200美元高点后的第二天下跌。 | | 10月31日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跃幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10,887.50 ↓ | -29.50 -0.27% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,884.00 ↑ | +20.50 ↑ +0.72% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,055.50 ↑ | +18.00 ↑ +0.59% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,017.00 | -5.00 ↓ -0.25% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,226.00 ↓ | -4.00 J -0.03% | | 三个月期锡 | | 36,086.00 ↑ +294.00 ↑ +0.82% | 本月，伦铜累计上涨619美元或6.03%，为连续第三个月收高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw most base metals decline, with copper hitting a one-week low, influenced by concerns over credit pressures in U.S. regional banks, leading to a negative sentiment in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 17, LME three-month copper fell by $42.5, or 0.4%, closing at $10,604.5 per ton, with an intraday low of $10,430, marking a 2% drop and the lowest since October 10 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $11.00 (0.39%), zinc down by $39.50 (1.33%), and tin down by $735.00 (2.05%) [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Copper is viewed as a barometer for the global economy, with recent supply concerns pushing prices to a 16-month high of $11,000 per ton last week [1]. - Recent reports indicate a temporary easing of supply concerns, as copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 550 tons, reaching the highest level since April [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The environment is characterized by a general risk aversion, with high-risk assets under pressure due to concerns over the U.S. economic situation [4]. - The spread between spot copper contracts and three-month forward contracts widened, indicating a decrease in immediate demand for copper [4].

Core Insights - LME copper prices experienced a slight increase, supported by a weaker dollar, but market sentiment was dampened by trade tensions and ongoing U.S. government shutdown uncertainties [1][4] - Concerns over supply tightness due to mining disruptions pushed copper prices to a 16-month high of $11,000 per ton last week [1] Price Movements - LME three-month copper rose by $6, or 0.06%, closing at $10,647 per ton [2] - Other base metals also saw price changes, with three-month aluminum increasing by $42.5 (1.55%) to $2,788.5 per ton, and three-month zinc rising by $25 (0.85%) to $2,973 per ton [2] Economic Impact - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown could lead to economic losses of up to $15 billion per week, putting pressure on the dollar [4] - Concerns regarding manufacturing growth and demand have led some companies betting on rising copper prices to reduce their positions [4] Market Outlook - Analysts from Goldman Sachs expect the market to remain in a temporary surplus, with current high copper prices reflecting investor optimism for 2026, driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence [4] - Significant increases in copper demand are anticipated in data centers and power infrastructure investments over the coming years [4] Aluminum Market - Concerns about tightness in the LME aluminum market have led to spot contracts trading at a premium over three-month aluminum, with premiums rising to over $21 per ton, the highest since February [4]

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices increased by $232.5, or 2.28%, closing at $10,414.0 per ton on September 29, driven by a weaker dollar and concerns over global supply due to an incident at the Grasberg copper mine [1][3] - The Grasberg mine has been suspended since September 8 following a fatal landslide, leading analysts to lower supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The copper market is expected to remain supported due to tightening conditions caused by disruptions at the Grasberg mine [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month aluminum prices rose by $23.5, or 0.88%, to $2,679.0 per ton, while zinc prices increased by $52.0, or 1.80%, to $2,940.5 per ton [2] - Tin prices surged by $987.0, or 2.86%, closing at $35,490.0 per ton, reaching a high not seen since April 4 [4] Group 3: Industry Growth Projections - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, released a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [3] - The plan includes goals for a 1.5% average annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals, with significant progress expected in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $56, or 0.56%, closing at $9,940.00 per ton, marking the lowest level since September 10 [1] - The decline in copper prices was attributed to profit-taking by traders following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement and the subsequent strengthening of the US dollar [1][4] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 97.46, although it remains down approximately 10.2% year-to-date, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies [4] Group 2 - Among base metals, aluminum was the only one to see an increase, rising by $1.50, or 0.06%, to $2,684.50 per ton due to supply tightness [4] - LME three-month zinc prices decreased by $27, or 0.92%, closing at $2,916.50 per ton [5] - LME three-month lead prices fell by $6.50, or 0.32%, to $2,006.00 per ton [6] - LME three-month nickel prices dropped by $133, or 0.86%, to $15,272.00 per ton [7] - LME three-month tin prices decreased by $634, or 1.85%, to $33,711.00 per ton, reaching the lowest level since August 22 [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - On September 17, LME copper prices fell to a one-week low as traders reduced positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with demand from major metal-consuming countries being suppressed due to recent copper price increases [1][4] - LME three-month copper dropped by $130.5, or 1.29%, closing at $9,996.0 per ton, still above the 21-day moving average support level at $9,912 [1][2] - The copper price had previously reached a 15-month high of $10,192.50 per ton on Monday [1] Group 2: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum decreased by $34, or 1.25%, closing at $2,683.0 per ton, after hitting a six-month high of $2,720 [2][5] - LME three-month zinc fell by $48.5, or 1.62%, closing at $2,943.5 per ton [2][6] - LME three-month lead increased by $2.5, or 0.12%, closing at $2,012.5 per ton [2][7] - LME three-month nickel declined by $23, or 0.15%, closing at $15,405.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month tin dropped by $536, or 1.54%, closing at $34,345.0 per ton [2][9] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influences - Alastair Munro from Marex noted that China acted as a seller in the copper market this week, with a lack of systemic buying and bearish mean reversion sell signals contributing to the overall weakness in copper prices [4] - Neil Welsh from Britannia Global Markets indicated that traders are not only focused on the expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve but are also awaiting clarity on future policy directions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached a five-month high, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and concerns over potential supply shortages [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On September 12, LME three-month copper rose by $16, or 0.16%, closing at $10,067.50 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,126, the highest since March 26 [1][2]. - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by approximately 15%, but have struggled to maintain levels above the psychological threshold of $10,000 [4]. - Concerns over supply are significant, particularly with the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remaining suspended due to ongoing rescue operations for trapped workers [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum increased by $16, or 0.6%, closing at $2,689.50 per ton [2][6]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $57, or 1.97%, closing at $2,957.00 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month lead increased by $21, or 1.05%, closing at $2,017.50 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $241, or 1.59%, closing at $15,391.00 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month tin increased by $277, or 0.8%, closing at $34,975.00 per ton [2][10]. Group 3: Production Insights - Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer, saw a 2% year-on-year decline in copper production in July, dropping to 228,007 tons [5].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices experienced fluctuations due to fund selling, with a closing increase observed before the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On August 20, LME three-month copper rose by $28.5, or 0.29%, closing at $9,720.5 per ton, after hitting a low of $9,670.50, the lowest since August 7 [1][2]. - Concerns over demand have led to spot copper trading at a discount of nearly $100 per ton compared to three-month copper, marking the deepest discount since February [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month aluminum prices closed at $2,576.5 per ton, up $13 or 0.51%, after earlier touching a two-week low of $2,558 per ton [2][4]. - The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported that global primary aluminum production in July was 6.373 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with a daily average production of 205,600 tons [4].

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $40.5, or 0.41%, closing at $9,733.0 per ton on August 18, influenced by a stronger dollar and uncertainty surrounding key events in the U.S. [1] - The three-month aluminum price decreased by $18.5, or 0.71%, closing at $2,588.5 per ton, while zinc and lead also saw declines of 0.64% and 0.53% respectively [2][6] - The only metal to see an increase was tin, which rose by $8, or 0.02%, closing at $33,702 per ton, supported by low inventory levels [6] Group 2 - ING commodity strategist Ewa Manthey noted that the market is cautious ahead of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, as well as the upcoming Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting [4] - The U.S. has expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum, which officially took effect on August 18, impacting various products and potentially affecting metal prices [6] - Peru's copper production increased by 7.1% year-on-year in June, reaching 228,932 tons, indicating a positive trend in copper supply [5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined due to a stronger US dollar and investor caution regarding tariffs, the Russia-Ukraine situation, and US interest rates [1][4] - On August 14, LME three-month copper fell by $37, or 0.38%, closing at $9,766.00 per ton [1][2] - The strong dollar, influenced by high US producer price inflation, makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4] Group 2 - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $3.50 (0.13%), zinc up by $19.50 (0.69%), and lead up by $1.50 (0.08%), while tin and nickel saw declines [2] - Market analysts are closely watching upcoming events, including the Jackson Hole meeting and the FOMC's release of July meeting minutes, for potential market-moving information [4] - There is potential for market upside, but a triggering factor is needed to break the current trading range of $9,500 to $9,900 [4]