本月铜价累计上涨6%，周四投机者持续买盘推动价格触及14,527.50美元历史高点，同时LME六种基本 金属合约指数也创下历史新高。 **获利了结及美元走强联合打压价格下挫** 1月30日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价下跌，受美元走强及获利了结打压，部分投资者在铜 价昨日创下历史新高后锁定获利。 伦敦时间1月30日17:00(北京时间1月31日01:00)，LME三个月期铜大跌461美元，或3.39%，至每吨 13,157.00美元，但仍维持在21日移动均线支撑位13,011美元上方。 | | 1月30日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 茶跌 张跃帽 | | 三个月期铜 | | 13,157.00 ↓ -461.00 ↓ -3.39% | | 三个月期铝 | 3,144.00 ↓ | -74.50 -2.31% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,402.00 | -10.00 ↓ -0.29% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,009.00 | -5.00 ↓ -0.25% | | 三个月期镇 | 17,954.00 -415.00 - ...

伦敦金属交易所(LME)金属普涨，多个品种价格创新高，三个月期铜涨7.05%，报14009.0美元/吨；伦敦 金属交易所(LME)三个月期铅涨1.56%，报2048.5美元/吨；伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期锡涨2.32%， 报57250.0美元/吨；伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期锌涨2.87%，报3460.5美元/吨；伦敦金属交易所 (LME)三个月期镍涨3.05%，报18828.0美元/吨。 ...

1月23日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价上涨，受到美元走软、其他金属价格上涨的支撑，并 且暂时抛开了近期供应库存增加的迹象。 伦敦时间1月23日17:00(北京时间1月24日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨359.5美元，或2.82%，收报每吨 13,115.0美元。盘中触及一周高点13,182美元。该金属在1月14日创下13,407美元的历史新高。 | | 1月23日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 13,115.00 ↑ | +359.50 ↑ +2.82% | | 三个月期铝 | 3,169.00 ↑ | +36.50 ↑ +1.17% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,260.50 ↑ | +49.50 ↑ +1.54% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,026.00 ↑ | +6.00 ↑ +0.30% | | 三个月期镇 | 18.756.00 1 | +760.00 ↑ +4.22% | | 三个月期锡 | | 56,816.00 ↑ +4,939.00 ↑ +9.52% | **美 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $56.5, or 0.44%, closing at $12,810.0 per ton on January 21, following a significant drop the previous day, driven by tight inventories outside the U.S. despite concerns over sustained demand [1] - The three-month aluminum price rose by $7.5, or 0.24%, to $3,115.0 per ton, while zinc increased by $2.5, or 0.08%, to $3,175.5 per ton [2] - The three-month tin price surged by $2,005.0, or 4.06%, to $51,417.0 per ton, marking the largest increase among LME metals [6] Group 2 - Structural tightness continues to support prices in the broader base metals market, although demand outlook remains uncertain [3] - The copper premium in the spot market rose above $100 per ton, indicating strong short-term demand, but shifted to a discount of $23.50 per ton the following day [3] - China's refined copper imports for December 2025 were reported at 298,027.32 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.19% and a year-on-year decline of 27.00% [3] Group 3 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper market surplus of 94,000 tons in November 2025, up from a surplus of 48,000 tons in October [4] - For the period from January to November 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 206,000 tons, compared to a surplus of 105,000 tons in the same period the previous year [5] Group 4 - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a zinc market shortage of 7,700 tons in November 2025, an increase from a shortage of 2,800 tons in October [8] - The global refined lead market surplus narrowed to 8,900 tons in November 2025, down from 29,200 tons in October [9]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rebounded on January 19, 2025, due to a weaker dollar and stable economic data from China, alongside reduced production forecasts from Chile, the largest copper producer [1][4][7] - The three-month copper price rose by $162.5, or 1.27%, closing at $12,965.5 per ton, following two consecutive days of decline [1][2] - Over the past six months, copper prices have surged by 31%, driven by concerns over potential supply shortages due to mining disruptions [4][6] Group 2 - China's industrial output data showed a year-on-year growth of 5.2% in December 2025, contributing to positive demand sentiment [6] - The GDP for 2025 was reported at 14,018.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, slightly above expectations [6] - Chile has revised down its short-term copper production forecasts, delaying the timeline for reaching a production peak of over 6 million tons [7][8] Group 3 - Concerns over weak demand are reflected in rising copper inventories, with LME warehouse stocks increasing by 3,850 tons, or 2.68%, to 147,425 tons [8] - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper contracts fell by 0.7% amid profit-taking and concerns over demand [8]

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - LME three-month copper price reached a new high of $13,188.5 per ton, up $24.5 or 0.19% on January 14, 2023, following a record high of $13,407 [1] - Over the past 12 months, LME copper prices have increased by 44%, driven by mining disruptions, supply shortage concerns, and potential tariffs affecting metal flows to the U.S. [3] - Analyst Ole Hansen noted that demand for hard assets is remarkable due to concerns over currency depreciation and financial risks, while a closing price below $13,000 could trigger a downward trend in copper prices [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum price decreased by $11.5 or 0.36%, closing at $3,186.0 per ton [7] - LME three-month zinc price increased by $74.5 or 2.33%, closing at $3,276.0 per ton [8] - LME three-month lead price rose by $17 or 0.82%, closing at $2,078.5 per ton [9] - LME three-month nickel price increased by $1,013 or 5.73%, closing at $18,694.0 per ton [10] - LME three-month tin price surged by $3,934 or 7.94%, closing at $53,462.0 per ton, with speculation driving the price increase [6][4]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices reached a historic high, surpassing $12,000 per ton, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of tightening supply, with speculative buying momentum boosted by year-end trading activity [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - On December 23, LME three-month copper rose by $135.5, or 1.14%, closing at $12,060.5 per ton, with an intraday peak of $12,159.50 [1][2] - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by 37%, marking the largest annual gain since 2009, despite a reported surplus of 12,200 tons in the first ten months of the year [3] - Anticipation of U.S. import tariffs on refined copper starting in 2027 is leading to tighter supply in traditional consumption centers [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3, up from 3.8% in Q2, driven by increased consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure [3][4] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that copper prices will stabilize at an average of $11,400 per ton in 2026 amid tariff uncertainties, with potential declines expected in late 2026 and early 2027 as U.S. inventories decrease [4] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month nickel increased by $463, or 3.03%, closing at $15,739.0 per ton, reaching a near seven-month high of $15,980 earlier in the day [4] - LME three-month aluminum fell by $2.5, or 0.08%, to $2,939.0 per ton, while zinc rose by $8.5, or 0.28%, to $3,093.5 per ton [4] - LME three-month lead increased by $11, or 0.56%, to $1,982.5 per ton, whereas tin decreased by $155, or 0.36%, to $42,792.0 per ton [4]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a record high on December 22, 2023, driven by speculative buying and concerns over supply shortages, closing at $11,925 per ton after a rise of $43.50 or 0.37% [1] - The price of copper has surged nearly 36% this year, primarily due to worries about supply shortages caused by mining issues [3] - Despite the upward momentum in copper prices attracting speculative funds, there are signs that demand is weakening at high price levels [4] Group 2 - China's refined copper imports in November 2025 were 304,712.60 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5.70% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.47% [5] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo was the largest source of refined copper imports for China in November, with imports of 143,591.77 tons, a month-on-month increase of 35.14% and a year-on-year increase of 8.74% [5] - Nickel was the best-performing metal on the LME, with three-month nickel prices rising by $473 or 3.2%, closing at $15,276 per ton [5]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have declined due to investor assessment of recent U.S. employment data, with year-end liquidity issues exacerbating price volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market Analysis - On December 16, LME three-month copper fell by $63.5, or 0.54%, closing at $11,592 per ton [1][2]. - Copper prices reached a record high of $11,952 last week due to concerns over supply tightness [3]. - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by over 30%, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009, driven by mining disruptions and rising demand expectations from AI data centers and energy transition [3]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department reported a combined loss of 41,000 jobs for October and November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021 [3]. - The report was affected by data collection issues during the government shutdown, marking the first instance of missing monthly unemployment rate data since the survey began in 1948 [3]. Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum rose by $10.5, or 0.37%, closing at $2,876.5 per ton, supported by a decrease in registered aluminum warehouse stocks [2][4]. - LME three-month zinc fell by $52, or 1.68%, closing at $3,041.5 per ton, while lead prices increased slightly by $1, or 0.05%, to $1,942 per ton [2][4]. - LME three-month nickel decreased by $83, or 0.58%, closing at $14,263 per ton, having reached an eight-month low earlier [6]. Group 4: Future Market Expectations - Morgan Stanley predicts a shift from surplus to shortage in the copper market by 2025, with a projected shortfall of 260,000 tons [4]. - The firm has adjusted its price forecasts for aluminum, zinc, nickel, and lead for 2026, expecting aluminum prices to be around $3,250 per ton and zinc to slightly decline to $2,900 per ton [7].

Core Viewpoint - The copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced a significant drop of over 3%, reigniting concerns over a potential burst of the artificial intelligence bubble, leading to widespread sell-offs in risk assets [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Performance - On December 12, LME three-month copper fell by $357, or 3.01%, closing at $11,515 per ton, after hitting a record high of $11,952 earlier in the day [1][2]. - The price decline followed a two-week increase, with copper down 0.9% for the week, while Comex copper plummeted 4% to $5.21 per pound [3]. Group 2: Broader Metal Market Trends - All LME metals saw declines, with three-month aluminum down $31.5 (1.09%) to $2,868.5 per ton, three-month zinc down $78.5 (2.45%) to $3,125.0 per ton, and three-month lead down $20.5 (1.03%) to $1,968.0 per ton [2][4]. - Zinc inventories increased by 1,575 tons to 61,925 tons, the highest level since August, indicating potential supply concerns [4]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Analysts suggest that short-term supply disruptions may keep copper prices around $11,000 per ton, but stronger demand, particularly from China, will be crucial for sustaining price increases [3]. - There are signs of price sensitivity among buyers, indicating potential risks to demand [4].