2025年的最后一天，上班族小叶（化名）终于"抢"到了一套上海市区的二手房。 上海楼市并没有走入淡季，反而出现了超预期的强势，甚至租房市场也比原本要活跃。有房东对《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）表示，房子 下午到期解约，结果傍晚就续上了。 连夜付定金 早在半年前，小叶就动了买房的念头，原因是这几年在房租上的开支每个月大约是4500—5000元，机缘巧合下发现"同款老破小"竟然有不少售价低于200 万元，自己的积蓄加上父母赞助，"上车"压力似乎也不大。 于是从去年5月份开始，小叶就持续关注着上海市中心的二手房价格。这半年来，小叶发现二手房的价格似乎一直有"松动"，还价的余地也不小，但她不 希望房子买到手就跌，所以一直保持观望。 房东江先生告诉每经记者，他有一套位于远郊的高层住宅，2025年12月31日合同到期，当天下午还在交接和保洁，就已经有中介抢先带看了。还有几位中 介提前几天就盯着他，计划交接后带看。 "门锁密码还没改，下一位租户就已经确定了，当天傍晚就谈好了，付款、签合同，无缝衔接。前两年的租金一直是1900元/月，这次月租金还涨了100 元。" 江先生表示，这套房子买得早，持有成本低，收房至今一 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market is showing unexpected strength, with both the second-hand and rental markets remaining active as of the end of December 2025 [1][4][5]. Group 1: Second-Hand Housing Market - A significant increase in second-hand housing transactions was noted, with over 23,000 units sold in December 2025, marking the third highest point of the year [6]. - Throughout 2025, a total of 254,218 second-hand homes were sold, with monthly sales consistently above 18,000 units, except for February due to the Spring Festival [6]. - The entry threshold for homebuyers has decreased, with prices for older properties dropping to around 2 million yuan, making it more accessible for first-time buyers [6]. Group 2: Rental Market - The rental market remains robust, with landlords experiencing quick turnover in rental agreements, as evidenced by a landlord who secured a new tenant on the same day a previous contract expired [5]. - Rental prices have increased, with one landlord reporting a rise from 1,900 yuan to 2,000 yuan per month for a property [5]. - The demand for rental properties is high, indicating a healthy rental market despite broader economic conditions [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market performance is better than in the previous two years, but the transaction volume has not yet reached a critical point that would lead to a price rebound [6]. - The threshold for a price increase is estimated to be a monthly transaction volume of 21,000 units in the residential sector [6].

2025年末上海楼市表现强势，二手房成交量连续两个月突破2.2万套，全年达25.4万套，创四年来新高。新房市场12月成交面积也环比增加 45.9%，租房市场同样活跃。当前市场表现优于前两年，但成交量尚未达到价格止跌回升的临界点，若纯住宅月度成交量持续超过2.1万 套，"量在价先"规律或将在2026年上海楼市显现。 2025年的最后一天，上班族小叶（化名）终于"抢"到了一套上海市区的二手房。 于是从去年5月份开始，小叶就持续关注着上海市中心的二手房价格。这半年来，小叶发现二手房的价格似乎一直有"松动"，还价的余地也不小，但她不 希望房子买到手就跌，所以一直保持观望。 但临近年末，市场开始出现变化。"近一个月，我收藏的房源中下架和成交的很多。"小叶告诉每经记者，"某App已经被我翻遍了，能看上的不多，好楼 层、好户型、好小区且价格又合理的，很稀缺"。 2025年12月的最后一周，就在小叶准备出手时，她"最中意"的那套房却成交了。"去年买老破小的买家似乎都特别积极，像我其实就很着急，能接受超出 预算10万元，想赶在最近签字，然后春节前完成过户。" 无奈之下，小叶只能再去看另一套房，"不敢等到元旦后"。最终小叶连夜付 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai real estate market is showing unexpected strength, with both the second-hand and rental markets remaining active as of the end of December 2025 [1][4] - In December 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in Shanghai exceeded 23,000 units, marking the third highest point of the year, with a total of 254,218 units sold throughout the year [5] - The average price for older, smaller homes has decreased, making them more accessible, with entry-level prices dropping from around 3 million to approximately 2 million yuan [5] Group 2 - The rental market is also thriving, with landlords experiencing quick turnover; one landlord reported a seamless transition to a new tenant with a rent increase from 1,900 to 2,000 yuan per month [4] - In the first week of 2026, Shanghai's second-hand home transactions led other major cities, with 839 units signed during the New Year holiday [7] - Analysts suggest that the current market performance is better than the previous two years, but a significant price recovery will only occur once monthly transactions reach around 21,000 units [9]

2025年的最后一天，上班族小叶（化名）终于"抢"到了一套上海市区的二手房。 上海楼市并没有走入淡季，反而出现了超预期的强势，甚至租房市场也比原本要活跃。有房东对《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）表示，房子 下午到期解约，结果傍晚就续上了。 连夜付定金 早在半年前，小叶就动了买房的念头，原因是这几年在房租上的开支每个月大约是4500—5000元，机缘巧合下发现"同款老破小"竟然有不少售价低于200 万元，自己的积蓄加上父母赞助，"上车"压力似乎也不大。 房东江先生告诉每经记者，他有一套位于远郊的高层住宅，2025年12月31日合同到期，当天下午还在交接和保洁，就已经有中介抢先带看了。还有几位中 介提前几天就盯着他，计划交接后带看。 "门锁密码还没改，下一位租户就已经确定了，当天傍晚就谈好了，付款、签合同，无缝衔接。前两年的租金一直是1900元/月，这次月租金还涨了100 元。" 江先生表示，这套房子买得早，持有成本低，收房至今一直处于出租状态，几乎没有空置过。租金也从最初的1700元/月慢慢涨到现在的2000元/月，比卖 房划算。 要涨价了？ 于是从去年5月份开始，小叶就持续关注着上海市中心的二手房价格 ...

于是从去年5月份开始，小叶就持续关注着上海市中心的二手房价格。这半年来，小叶发现二手房的价格似乎一直有"松动"，还价的余地也不小，但她不 希望房子买到手就跌，所以一直保持观望。 但临近年末，市场开始出现变化。"近一个月，我收藏的房源中下架和成交的很多。"小叶告诉每经记者，"某App已经被我翻遍了，能看上的不多，好楼 层、好户型、好小区且价格又合理的，很稀缺"。 每经记者｜包晶晶 每经编辑｜程鹏 陈梦妤 2025年的最后一天，上班族小叶（化名）终于"抢"到了一套上海市区的二手房。 上海楼市并没有走入淡季，反而出现了超预期的强势，甚至租房市场也比原本要活跃。有房东对《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）表示，房子 下午到期解约，结果傍晚就续上了。 连夜付定金 早在半年前，小叶就动了买房的念头，原因是这几年在房租上的开支每个月大约是4500—5000元，机缘巧合下发现"同款老破小"竟然有不少售价低于200 万元，自己的积蓄加上父母赞助，"上车"压力似乎也不大。 2025年12月的最后一周，就在小叶准备出手时，她"最中意"的那套房却成交了。"去年买老破小的买家似乎都特别积极，像我其实就很着急，能接受超出 预算10万 ...

撰文｜包晶晶 编辑｜陈梦妤 封面图源｜包晶晶 2025年的最后一天，上班族小叶（化名）终于"抢"到了一套上海市区的二手房。 上海楼市并没有走入淡季，反而出现了超预期的强势，甚至租房市场也比原本要活跃。有房东对《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）表示，房子 下午到期解约，结果傍晚就续上了。 1 连夜付定金 早在半年前，小叶就动了买房的念头，原因是这几年在房租上的开支每个月大约是4500—5000元，机缘巧合下发现"同款老破小"竟然有不少售价低于200 万元，自己的积蓄加上父母赞助，"上车"压力似乎也不大。 要涨价了？ "门锁密码还没改，下一位租户就已经确定了，当天傍晚就谈好了，付款、签合同，无缝衔接。前两年的租金一直是1900元/月，这次月租金还涨了100 元。" 江先生表示，这套房子买得早，持有成本低，收房至今一直处于出租状态，几乎没有空置过。租金也从最初的1700元/月慢慢涨到现在的2000元/月，比卖 房划算。 2 要涨价了？ 于是从去年5月份开始，小叶就持续关注着上海市中心的二手房价格。这半年来，小叶发现二手房的价格似乎一直有"松动"，还价的余地也不小，但她不 希望房子买到手就跌，所以一直保持观望。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market, represented by Moutai and Wuliangye, is experiencing a significant price decline, leading to concerns about market confidence and a potential restructuring of the industry [1][2][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The overall white liquor sector has seen a decline of approximately 7% since December, with Moutai's price dropping to around 1500 yuan and Wuliangye's to about 780 yuan, reflecting intensified supply-demand conflicts [1][11]. - Moutai and Wuliangye have initiated measures to stabilize prices, including Moutai's decision to halt the release of unfulfilled quotas and reduce the supply of high-value products [1][2][22]. - Wuliangye has adjusted its payment policy for the first time since 2014, offering a discount of 119 yuan per bottle to ease financial pressure on distributors [2][31]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Moutai's recent actions include holding meetings with distributors to communicate its commitment to controlling supply and stabilizing prices, which has led to a rebound in Moutai's price to around 1600 yuan [1][22][29]. - Wuliangye has implemented various incentives, including market expansion rewards and bottle scanning subsidies, to enhance channel vitality and stabilize its pricing system [2][31]. - The report indicates a shift in the industry from "volume-driven by price" to "price-driven by volume," emphasizing the importance of sales performance [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The adjustments made by leading companies are expected to gradually alleviate overall inventory pressure in the industry, although other brands still face significant pricing and inventory challenges [2][3]. - The industry is undergoing a structural transition from rapid growth to rational management, with a focus on maintaining channel health and price stability for future high-quality development [3][14]. - The performance of sales and collections before and after the Spring Festival will be critical in determining the industry's trajectory [2][36].

文|有风 编辑|有风 最近经济圈讨论得挺热闹，房地产市场忽冷忽热，返乡政策被传得五花八门，银行利率调整也牵动人 心。 著名经济学家李稻葵最近针对这几个热点接连开口，不少观点跟大家平时想的不太一样。 今天咱们就聊聊他说的房价、返乡政策和货币政策这三件事，看看能不能帮大家把思路理清楚。 房价看涨跌？李稻葵，交易量比价格更靠谱 很多人买房卖房，眼睛就盯着价格曲线，涨了怕踏空，跌了怕亏。 但李稻葵最近提醒，光看价格波动可能被忽悠，真正反映市场冷暖的是交易量。 所以李稻葵说"量在价先"，其实是让大家别被表面数字迷惑，真金白银的交易才是市场的晴雨表。 而且房市不能一刀切看全国，李稻葵特别强调，得看你所在的城市。 比如深圳南山区，年轻人往那涌，产业又撑得住，交易量可能慢慢往上走。 但有些三四线城市，人口年年往外流，就算价格暂时稳住，没交易量支撑也难长久。 身边有朋友在小城市卖房，挂了半年没动静，中介说"价格可以降10万试试"，但他发现同小区上个月才 成交一套，这种情况降价也未必有用。 这话怎么理解？举个例子，有些地方房价看着涨了，但你去中介问问，挂出去的房子三个月没成交一 套，这种价格上涨就像没根基的墙，风一吹就可能塌。 ...

Core Insights - The report from Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute indicates a significant increase in second-hand residential transactions in first-tier cities, with November seeing a total of 49,033 units sold, marking a 20% month-on-month increase and the highest volume in seven months since May [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In November, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties reached 49,033 units, surpassing the previous month’s 40,714 units and even exceeding the traditionally strong September figure of 47,176 units, indicating a robust recovery in market activity [1] - Year-to-date, the total number of second-hand residential transactions in the four first-tier cities has reached 519,021 units, which is a 5% year-on-year increase and the highest level in nearly four years, only behind 2020 and 2021 [2] Group 2: Factors Driving Market Activity - The positive performance in November is attributed to several factors, including favorable purchasing policies, price adjustments, demand for school districts, and overall market confidence, which have collectively contributed to a favorable market adjustment [1] - The recovery in the second-hand housing market is supported by effective local purchasing policies, the release of genuine demand following price adjustments, and the gradual unblocking of the property exchange chain [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current transaction volume has returned to a historical high range of 80-90%, with expectations for continued growth, especially as December typically sees increased activity due to seasonal trends [3] - The second-hand housing market is expected to transition from a phase of "price for volume" to a new stage of "stable volume and price," with the positive trading momentum likely to extend into 2026 [3] - The gradual return of prices to reasonable levels, combined with enhanced buyer willingness and the recognition of value in second-hand properties, is fostering a positive feedback loop in the market [3]