Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as the best-performing investment asset of the year, with a price increase of 112%, significantly outpacing gold's 60% rise, and recently reaching historical highs above $61 per ounce [1][4]. Price Movement - On December 10, silver prices hit a record high of $61.469 per ounce, marking the first time it surpassed $61 [1]. - COMEX silver also broke through $62 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw its main silver contract reach 14,388 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of over 5% [1][4]. Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - There has been a substantial increase in demand for precious metals due to rising debt levels and currency devaluation risks in major Western economies [4]. - Silver's smaller market size compared to gold makes it more sensitive to dollar fluctuations, resulting in higher volatility [4]. - Industrial demand for silver is expected to remain strong in the coming years, contributing to upward price pressure [4][6]. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 87.6%, with expectations of further cuts into January [5]. - Market analysts suggest that the anticipated rate cuts are driving silver prices higher, alongside strong buying momentum [4][5]. Future Supply and Demand Outlook - The Silver Institute predicts a structural supply deficit of approximately 95 million ounces in the global silver market by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [7]. - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable at around 813 million ounces, while total demand may decline by about 4% to 1.12 billion ounces [7][8]. - The solar energy sector is projected to significantly boost silver demand, with an expected increase of nearly 150 million ounces annually from 2024 to 2030 due to new solar installations [7]. Inventory and Market Sentiment - Silver inventories in China have reached near-decade lows, with record exports of over 660 tons in October [8]. - The market sentiment remains bullish, driven by low inventories and strong industrial demand, although there are concerns about potential corrections due to overbought conditions [8][9]. Investment Trends - The largest silver ETF, SLV, has seen its holdings increase to 15,973.16 tons, reflecting strong investor interest [9]. - Analysts expect silver prices to trade between $43 and $62 per ounce in 2026, with investment demand being a key driver, although fluctuations in sentiment could impact this outlook [9].

Core Viewpoint - Silver has reached a historic high, with significant price increases driven by market demand and supply dynamics, making it the best-performing investment asset this year [1][4]. Price Movement - On December 3, silver prices hit a peak of $58.945 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 103%, significantly outpacing gold's 60% rise [1][4]. - COMEX silver surpassed $59 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw silver contracts rise to 13,866 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 2.7% increase [1][4]. Economic Indicators - Market attention is focused on upcoming economic data, particularly the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is expected to show a slight increase in inflation [3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 89.2%, with a cumulative cut of 25 basis points by January having a probability of 66.6% [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market is projected to face a structural supply deficit of approximately 9.5 million ounces by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [4][5]. - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable at around 813 million ounces, with only a slight increase in recycling supply [4][5]. - Total global silver demand is anticipated to decline by about 4% to 1.12 billion ounces, with industrial demand decreasing by approximately 2% [5]. Future Outlook - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to bolster market sentiment towards silver, although the market is currently in an overbought condition [6]. - The silver-to-gold ratio has decreased to around 78, indicating potential for further correction towards historical averages [6]. - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,863.15 tons, reflecting an increase of 60.79 tons from the previous day, maintaining high levels of investment interest [6].

Group 1: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices reached a new historical high of $58.945 per ounce on December 3, with a year-to-date increase of 103%, significantly outperforming gold, which rose 60% this year [1][3] - COMEX silver prices surpassed $59 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.47%, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver contract rose to 13,866 yuan per kilogram, marking an increase of 2.7% [1][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market is projected to face a structural supply deficit of approximately 9.5 million ounces in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [4] - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable at around 813 million ounces, with a slight increase of about 1% in recycled supply, while total demand is anticipated to decline by approximately 4% to 1.12 billion ounces [5] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to drive long-term silver demand, with the International Energy Agency forecasting an increase in solar capacity that could add nearly 150 million ounces of silver demand annually by 2030 [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market anticipates a 89.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is expected to bolster bullish sentiment in the silver market [3] - Despite the significant year-to-date increase in silver prices, the market is showing signs of being overbought, with potential sensitivity to macroeconomic data that could trigger corrections [6] - The current gold-silver ratio has decreased to around 78, indicating potential for further correction towards historical averages, while expectations of continued rate cuts may reinforce trading strategies focused on this ratio [6] Group 4: ETF Holdings - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,863.15 tons, an increase of 60.79 tons from the previous day, indicating sustained high interest in silver investments [7]

12月1日，亚洲早盘，避险情绪再度升温，现货黄金在4220关口上方震荡；现货白银历史首次触及57美元/盎司，日内涨幅一度超过2.5%，今年以来涨幅已经 达到98%，逼近100%；COMEX白银盘中突破58美元/盎司，日内涨1.47%。 上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格涨至13520元/公斤，涨幅超过7%，月线上已经连续上涨8个月。 白银已经连续8个月上涨 本周，美联储将进入12月会议前的"噤声期"。本周二，美联储主席鲍威尔将在一场纪念活动中发表讲话。正值"噤声期"，鲍威尔料不会发表有关货币政策相 关的重要表态。 市场焦点转向即将出炉的诸多经济数据。其中，"美联储最青睐的通胀指标"——美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）报告将于周五公布，预计9月整体PCE同比涨 幅将微升至2.8%，核心PCE价格指数同比涨幅预计将维持在2.9%不变。 据CME"美联储观察"的最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%，维持利率不变的概率为12.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率 为67.5%，维持利率不变的概率为9.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为23.2%。 高盛表示，美联储将在12月9—10日议息会议 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in silver prices, driven by a combination of supply-demand dynamics and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5][6]. - Silver has experienced a remarkable increase, with prices reaching $57 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of nearly 100% [5][6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the main silver contract price surged to 13,520 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of over 7% and marking eight consecutive months of price growth [5][6]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, with a probability of 87.4% for a 25 basis point cut, which is anticipated to support precious metal prices [4][5]. - The global silver supply has been in a state of shortage for the past five years, with increasing demand from the solar energy sector contributing to the price surge [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the current economic environment, characterized by rising inflation and a weakening job market, is favorable for silver, which possesses both precious and industrial metal attributes [7][8]. Group 3 - The inflow of speculative funds and strong fundamentals have led to silver exhibiting greater price elasticity compared to gold [8]. - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,610.54 tons, indicating a daily increase of 28.21 tons, maintaining high levels of investment interest [9]. - Sales of silver investment products, such as silver bars and coins, have surged by over 40% year-on-year due to the recent price increases [10].

百利好APP是百利好旗下一款结合先进金融科技的流动应用程式，为投资者提供各类产品报价、行情分析资讯、交易平台及推 送信息等功能服务，务求令客户运筹帷幄，占尽投资先机。 【免责声明】以上内容由百利好提供，仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议。据此操作，风险自担。 美联储已于本周进入12月政策会议前的例行静默期。根据日程，主席鲍威尔将于美东时间周一晚间发表讲话，但由于处于会前 沟通限制阶段，市场普遍预期其言论将避免涉及货币政策具体走向。 在此背景下，贵金属市场持续走强。12月1日亚洲早盘，现货黄金持稳于4220美元/盎司上方；现货白银则大幅上涨，盘中首次 触及57美元/盎司关口。国内方面，上海期货交易所白银主力合约单日涨幅显著，月线已实现连续八个月上扬。今年以来白银表 现尤为突出，自9月初突破40美元后涨势延续，近期更一度升至57.86美元高位。 本周市场关注点将转向多项关键经济数据的发布。周一将公布美国11月制造业PMI终值；周三的ADP就业报告因非农数据推迟发 布而更受关注；周四的裁员报告亦将提供就业市场线索。尤其值得关注的是将于周五发布的9月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指 数，该指标被视为美联储评估通胀趋势的重要依据 ...

21世经济报道记者叶麦穗12月1日，亚洲早盘，避险情绪再度升温，现货黄金在4220关口上方震荡；现 货白银历史首次触及57美元/盎司，日内涨幅一度超过2.5%，今年以来涨幅已经达到98%，逼近100%； COMEX白银盘中突破58美元/盎司，日内涨1.47%。 上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格涨至13520元/公斤，涨幅超过7%，月线上已经连续上涨8个月。 | (分鐘 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 學 年 參閱聯 設置 画线 | 九時 愛 区 加田馬 十一 州 | | 沪银主连 AGZL | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分时:此特 沪图 图 图图: 13081 品质: 13332 | | | 13332 | +789 | +629% | | | | 爱比 | -86.67% | | -13 | | | | 炭压 | 13337 | | | | | | 实図 | 13336 | | 55 | | | | 震三 | 133335 | | | | | | 澳二 | 13334 | | ે કે | | | 0.01% | 精神学 | 13 ...