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美国打压成功?中国GDP降至美国的59%?全球老二的崛起被打断?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-06 15:06
那个"60%"是怎么算出来的?把我们用人民币辛辛苦苦干出来的GDP,换算成美元,再去跟美国的比。 这几年美国为了解决自己的通胀问题,拼命加息,让美元像打了兴奋剂一样快速升值,这样一来,我们 的人民币换成美元时,账面就变少了。 最近是不是经常看到,中国经济第二收到动摇,中美贸易战"中国经济告急!GDP占比跌回美国60%以 下差距再次拉大!" 你看这一套组合拳下来,我们非但没被打趴下,反而把筋骨练得更结实了。这波操作,是不是得给对手 送一面"最佳陪练"的锦旗? 国与国之间的竞争,不是短时间的数据变化,而是长期的耐力、智谋和格局的比拼, 这纯粹是一场由汇率引发的"数字魔术"。而真正反映我们身体素质的"肌肉含量"——也就是实际经济增 长率,我们2025年预计是4.5%左右而美国呢?只有1.8%。 谁的马车跑得更快,一目了然。所以别再被那个虚胖的"体重"数字给唬住了! 有人可能会说:"就算汇率是虚的,那美国的打压总是实的吧?"从2018年开始的贸易战,到2025年特朗 普老哥"二进宫"后直接把关税飙到145%,一副要"一波带走"的架势。尤其是在芯片高科技领域,更是 恨不得把我们家的路都给堵死。 美国的极限施压,给我们带 ...
经济实力:家底更加殷实
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-13 22:23
Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is set to conclude in 2025, marking a significant milestone in China's economic and social development, with a focus on achieving high-quality growth and innovation [2][3]. Economic Growth - China's economy has consistently crossed significant thresholds, maintaining its position as the world's second-largest economy, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025 [4]. - The average economic growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is projected at 5.5%, which is notable for an economy of China's size [4]. - The economic increment during this period is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to recreating the economic output of the Yangtze River Delta region [4]. Manufacturing and Infrastructure - China remains the world's largest manufacturing power, with over 220 products leading in global production [5]. - The country has established the largest power infrastructure system globally, with an energy self-sufficiency rate of over 80% [6]. - Significant advancements in infrastructure have been made, supporting high-quality economic development [5]. Innovation and Technology - China's innovation capabilities are on the rise, with a substantial increase in R&D investment, which grew nearly 50% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [7]. - The number of high-tech enterprises has surpassed 460,000, indicating a robust environment for technological advancement [7]. - Major technological achievements include the successful operation of the Chinese space station and advancements in various high-tech sectors [8]. Domestic Market and Consumption - The domestic market is a crucial pillar for economic stability, with over 1.4 billion people and a growing middle-income population [10]. - Retail sales and fixed asset investments reached 48.8 trillion yuan and 51.4 trillion yuan, respectively, in 2024, highlighting the strength of domestic consumption [10]. - The average contribution of final consumption to economic growth has increased to 56.2%, reflecting a shift towards a consumption-driven economy [11]. Foreign Investment and Trade - China has accelerated its pace of opening up to the world, with a significant reduction in foreign investment restrictions, particularly in the manufacturing sector [12]. - The country has absorbed over 700 billion USD in foreign investment since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," showcasing its attractiveness as an investment destination [12]. - In 2024, the scale of goods imports reached 2.6 trillion USD, providing new opportunities for international cooperation [12].
观点丨夏璐:五年实干结硕果,“十五五”扬帆再出发
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 14:41
Group 1: Achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan - China's economic strength has significantly increased, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, representing a growth equivalent to recreating the economies of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong combined [2] - Research and development (R&D) investment has grown nearly 50% compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, with R&D intensity approaching OECD averages [3] - The renewable energy capacity has more than doubled, reaching 2.09 billion kilowatts by May 2025, with one-third of electricity generated from green sources [4] - Employment has increased with over 12 million new urban jobs created annually, and the coverage of basic medical and pension insurance remains above 95% [5] - Significant progress in state-owned enterprise reform and the establishment of a unified national market, with the number of negative lists for market access reduced from 151 to 106 [7] Group 2: Expectations for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The focus will be on advancing technology in areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum information, with a collaborative mechanism for transforming research into economic benefits [9] - A shift towards a green industrial revolution is anticipated, with non-fossil energy expected to account for about 25% of primary energy consumption [10] - Digital transformation will progress from consumer internet to industrial internet, with comprehensive coverage of industrial categories [11] - Policies will be implemented to address aging population challenges, including enhanced support for families and the development of a silver economy [12] - Reforms aimed at achieving common prosperity will be introduced, including adjustments to tax systems and minimum wage standards [13] - Efforts to enhance openness and connectivity in the dual circulation economy will be prioritized, with a reduction in foreign investment negative lists [14]
我国持续推动创新势能向经济动能转化
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-07-10 01:30
Core Viewpoint - China's economic strength has significantly increased over the past five years, with an average economic growth rate of 5.5% and an expected total economic volume of approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a remarkable resilience amid various risks and challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Innovation - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes innovation as a crucial driver for economic development, with R&D expenditure increasing by nearly 50% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," reaching 1.2 trillion yuan [1] - The number of global top 100 technology innovation clusters in China has reached 26, accounting for the highest share globally, with over 460,000 high-tech enterprises [1] Group 2: R&D Investment and Technological Breakthroughs - R&D investment is accelerating, with a projected 2024 R&D expenditure of 3.6 trillion yuan, representing 2.68% of GDP, and enterprises contributing over 77% of this investment [2] - Key core technologies are experiencing breakthroughs, such as a 72.6% increase in integrated circuit production in 2024, adding approximately 190 billion units [2] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Talent Development - Emerging industries are rapidly growing, with high-tech manufacturing value added expected to increase by 42% and the digital economy's core industries growing by 73.8%, reaching 10.4% of GDP [2] - China has the largest pool of human resources and R&D personnel globally, with over 5 million graduates in STEM fields annually, providing a solid foundation for technological breakthroughs [3] Group 4: Innovation Ecosystem - A unique Chinese innovation ecosystem is forming, with companies actively engaging in open-source ecosystems to promote technological innovation and application development [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to implement an innovation-driven development strategy, integrating technology and industry innovation while fostering a supportive environment for comprehensive innovation [3]
今年经济体量有望达到140万亿元左右
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-07-09 06:57
Economic Growth and Contributions - The GDP of China is expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, with a total economic increment of over 35 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, equivalent to the total GDP of the top three provinces: Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong in 2024 [2] - Domestic demand has been the main driver of economic growth, contributing an average of 86.4% to the growth over the past four years, with final consumption contributing 56.2% [3][4] Investment Trends - Investment has shifted towards quality, with capital formation contributing 30.2% to economic growth over the past four years [3] - The expansion of market consumption has driven investment in sectors like 5G and smartphones, leading to an average annual growth of 21.9% in internet and related services investment [4] Manufacturing and Infrastructure - China has maintained its position as the world's largest manufacturing power for 15 consecutive years, with over 200 major industrial products produced in the highest quantities globally [5] - The country boasts the largest modern infrastructure network, including highways, high-speed rail, and power grids, which supports rapid economic and social development [5] R&D and Innovation - By 2024, the proportion of R&D expenditure to GDP is projected to reach 2.68%, with total R&D spending increasing to 3.6 trillion yuan, positioning China as the second globally [6] - Key technological advancements include a 72.6% increase in integrated circuit production and significant growth in high-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors [7] Employment and Income - The urban employment rate has remained stable with over 12 million new jobs created annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, contributing to improved living standards [9] - Income growth for residents has been in sync with economic growth, leading to a reduction in the income gap between urban and rural areas [9] Foreign Investment - From 2021 to May 2023, foreign direct investment in China reached 4.7 trillion yuan, surpassing the total during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [10] - The government plans to further relax market access and enhance the environment for foreign investment, ensuring fair treatment and support for foreign enterprises [10]
芯火三十年:根芽时代(2000-2010)
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-03 07:25
Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the evolution of China's semiconductor industry over the past three decades, highlighting its transition from a nascent stage to a significant player in the global market, driven by marketization, internationalization, and the need for self-reliance in the face of geopolitical challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Development Phases - The development of China's semiconductor industry can be divided into three phases: the initial phase from 2000 to around 2010, where key enterprises were established and the industry chain began to take shape; the second phase from 2010 to around 2020, characterized by large-scale global mergers and acquisitions; and the third phase from 2020 to the present, marked by a push for independence due to geopolitical influences [1][2]. - The early 2000s saw a shift from a planned economy to a market-driven approach, with the emergence of domestic semiconductor companies and industry leaders [3][4]. Group 2: Key Players and Contributions - The return of talent from abroad, particularly from the U.S. and Japan, played a crucial role in igniting the semiconductor entrepreneurial wave in China, with figures like Dr. Deng Zhonghan founding companies like Zhongxing Microelectronics [5][6]. - Companies like Spreadtrum (展讯) emerged during the marketization phase, successfully introducing venture capital and innovative management practices, which helped the industry overcome initial challenges [9][11]. - Semiconductor manufacturing, particularly through the establishment of SMIC (中芯国际), filled a critical gap in China's semiconductor capabilities, leading to the development of a complete industry chain [13][15]. Group 3: Challenges and Internal Dynamics - SMIC faced significant legal challenges from TSMC, including lawsuits over intellectual property theft, which impacted its operational stability and leadership dynamics [18][20]. - Internal conflicts within SMIC, particularly between factions with different management backgrounds, hindered its growth and development during critical periods [23][24]. Group 4: Industry Growth and Collaboration - The establishment of various industry alliances and collaborations in the late 2000s and early 2010s fostered a cooperative ecosystem, enhancing the overall development of the semiconductor sector in China [32][33]. - The growth of semiconductor talent and educational initiatives, particularly from institutions like Tsinghua University, laid the groundwork for future advancements in the industry [27].