Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the company, indicating that the same-store sales decline is expected to reverse by the end of the year [1][4]. Core Insights - The same-store sales decline for the company's brands, particularly for the "Tai Er" brand, has been narrowing, showing signs of improvement due to operational adjustments [2][3]. - The "5.0 Fresh Model" for the "Tai Er" brand is being implemented, with significant changes in menu offerings and service, which are anticipated to enhance customer experience and increase average spending [3]. - The company has already modified 106 "Tai Er" stores to the new model and plans to exceed 200 by the end of 2025, which is expected to contribute to positive same-store sales growth [3]. Summary by Sections Same-Store Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, the same-store average daily sales for "Tai Er," "Song Hot Pot," and "Jiu Mao Jiu" showed declines of -9.3%, -19.1%, and -14.8% respectively, which is an improvement from Q2's declines of -13.7%, -14.3%, and -18.5% [2]. - The turnover rates for "Tai Er," "Song Hot Pot," and "Jiu Mao Jiu" were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively, showing an increase from Q2 [2]. Operational Adjustments - The new model includes menu enhancements with the introduction of fresh beef and chicken dishes, which are expected to boost customer choices and average spending [3]. - Staffing adjustments have been made to accommodate the new cooking requirements, adding approximately 4-5 new positions in the kitchen [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the combination of operational changes and a low comparative base from the previous year will likely lead to a positive same-store sales growth by the end of the year [3][4]. - The company is also opening new model stores for "Jiu Mao Jiu" and "Song Hot Pot" in Q4, which will be monitored for further developments [4].

Core Viewpoint - Jiumaojiu (09922) has seen a rebound of over 4%, with a current price of HKD 1.82 and a trading volume of HKD 11.5281 million, despite facing challenges in same-store sales across its three main brands [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Same-store sales for Jiumaojiu's three main brands have been under pressure but have shown improvement for three consecutive quarters [1] - Taier's average daily same-store sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the -19.0% decline in the first half of the year [1] - The same-store sales for Ronghuoguo and Jiumaojiu decreased by 19.1% and 14.8% year-on-year, respectively, also showing marginal improvement [1] - In key cities like Beijing and Shanghai, same-store sales achieved positive year-on-year growth in the third quarter [1] Group 2: Operational Insights - Huaxing Securities reported that Jiumaojiu's operations remained stable in the third quarter, with its main brands undergoing a period of adjustment [1] - The decline in same-store sales for Taier has shown a narrowing trend within the quarter, indicating potential recovery [1] - Due to store adjustments, the company's overall profit scale for the year may be slightly lower than current expectations, but a smooth adjustment of all brand stores is anticipated in the fourth quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huaxing Securities maintains a "Hold" rating and profit forecast for Jiumaojiu (09922), lowering the target price by 29% to HKD 1.77, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2026, indicating that the company's overall profit may be slightly below current expectations due to store adjustments affecting same-store sales [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q3 2025, Jiumaojiu's operations remained stable, with a total of 530 Taier restaurants, 509 of which are self-operated, along with 71 Song Hotpot and 64 Jiumaojiu restaurants [1] - The table turnover rates for Taier self-operated restaurants were 3.2 times per day in mainland China and 3.9 times in other regions, while Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu had turnover rates of 2.4 and 2.5 times per day, respectively [1] - The average customer spending was reported as 66 CNY in mainland China and 155 CNY in other regions for Taier, 100 CNY for Song Hotpot, and 58 CNY for Jiumaojiu self-operated restaurants [1] - Same-store daily sales for Taier self-operated restaurants decreased by 9.3%, Song Hotpot by 19.1%, and Jiumaojiu by 14.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - It is expected that all brand stores will undergo smooth adjustments in Q4, with Taier's same-store revenue decline narrowing further in Q3 2025, approaching flat growth by early September [2] - The impact of the Xibei prepared dishes incident on customer traffic in shopping center dining areas is expected to diminish after the National Day holiday, potentially allowing Taier's same-store revenue to turn positive by year-end [2] - Taier is actively adjusting its store model by introducing live fish for fresh preparation, which is not expected to significantly affect service standards, although raw material costs may slightly increase [2] - The company plans to adjust over 200 Taier stores this year and continue with the remaining 300 next year [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - Jiumaojiu and Song Hotpot are experiencing similar trends in same-store revenue performance, with the company aiming to improve results through new model stores [3] - The restaurant industry is undergoing a transformation phase, with consumers demanding higher standards across various aspects such as environment, space, product quality, pricing, service, and promotions [3] - The company is proactively adjusting to meet these demands, which may impact short-term financials but is expected to lay a foundation for sustainable future growth [3]

Core Insights - Jiumaojiu Group (09922.HK) reported a decline in same-store daily sales for its brands, with Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu experiencing year-on-year decreases of 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% respectively in Q3 2025, although the declines narrowed compared to Q2, indicating effective operational adjustments and brand upgrades [1][4] - The Chinese dining market is undergoing a significant transformation in consumer perception of "value," particularly among younger consumers who now equate it with a combination of "cost-performance" and "experience," prompting brands to enhance dining environments, service quality, and social attributes to meet new market demands [1] Company Strategy - Jiumaojiu Group's strategic adjustments are representative of industry trends, with its core brand Taier launching the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrade and layout optimization, focusing on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, which aligns with consumer demands for quality and freshness [3][4] - As of the announcement date, Taier has established 106 new model restaurants, with same-store daily sales showing continuous improvement for three consecutive quarters, particularly achieving positive year-on-year growth in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai in Q3 [4] - The group plans to accelerate the rollout of the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants, aiming to expand to over 200 locations by the end of 2025 due to positive market feedback [4] Brand Development - Song Hotpot is focusing on dual upgrades in product offerings and atmosphere, enhancing its fresh product categories and positioning a joyful atmosphere as a core brand asset, transforming dining into a fun and quality social space to attract younger customers [4] - Jiumaojiu's Northwest Cuisine brand is targeting the children's dining sector by developing children's meals, opening experience stores, and incorporating interactive activities to increase family customer loyalty and market competitiveness [4] - The average customer spending level across the main brands has remained relatively stable over several quarters, indicating a shift from reliance on short-term promotions to strengthening product quality and enhancing customer experience, marking a critical step in adapting to the new market normal [4]

Core Insights - The company reported an improvement in same-store sales across its three main brands, with Taier showing the most significant recovery, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [1][2] Group 1: Operational Performance - Taier's same-store daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a significant improvement from a decline of 19.0% in the first half of the year [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, reflecting successful store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] - The company continues to implement its "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrades, with 106 locations operational by the end of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by year-end [1][2] Group 2: Store Structure and Strategy - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) reached 686, with Taier accounting for 530 locations [2] - The company has shifted its strategic focus from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, moving away from price competition [2] - Taier's self-operated table turnover rate was 3.3, with a stable average spending of 74 yuan per customer [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 150 million, 204 million, and 242 million yuan respectively, reflecting confidence in growth drivers [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.2, 11.2, and 9.4 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3] - A target price of 2.24 HKD is set for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on brand strength and product innovation capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The core growth driver for Jiumaojiu (09922) is the accelerated implementation of the Taier "5.0 Fresh Model," entering a phase of expansion and store openings [1] Financial Performance - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to CNY 150 million, CNY 204 million, and CNY 242 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.2x, 11.2x, and 9.4x [1] - The target price for 2026 is set at HKD 2.24, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on brand strength and product innovation capabilities [1] Sales and Store Performance - In Q3, Taier's same-store daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from a 19.0% decline in the first half of the year, marking three consecutive quarters of improvement [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, indicating successful store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] Restaurant Network and Customer Metrics - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) is 686, with Taier accounting for 530, Song Hotpot 71, and Jiumaojiu 64 [2] - The table turnover rate for Taier's self-operated stores is 3.3, with 3.2 in mainland China and 3.9 in other regions; Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu have turnover rates of 2.4 and 2.5 respectively [2] - The average spending per customer at Taier's self-operated stores is CNY 74, while Song Hotpot's is CNY 100, both showing stability over multiple quarters [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has shifted its strategy from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, gradually moving away from price competition [2] - The "5.0 Fresh Model" focuses on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, with 106 locations implementing this model by the end of September, and plans to accelerate promotion to over 200 locations by year-end [2]

Core Viewpoint - The core growth driver for Jiumaojiu (09922) is the accelerated deployment of the Taier "5.0 Fresh Model," entering a phase of expansion and store openings [1] Financial Performance - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 150 million, 204 million, and 242 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.2, 11.2, and 9.4 times [1] - The target price is set at 2.24 HKD based on a 14 times PE for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Sales and Store Performance - In Q3, Taier's same-store average daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 19.0% decline in the first half of the year, marking three consecutive quarters of improvement [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, indicating effective store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] Restaurant Network - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) is 686, with Taier accounting for 530, Song Hotpot 71, Jiumaojiu 64, and others [2] - The average table turnover rate for Taier's self-operated stores is 3.3, with 3.2 in mainland China and 3.9 in other regions [2] Consumer Experience and Strategy - The average consumer spending at Taier's self-operated stores is 74 RMB, while Song Hotpot is 100 RMB, both showing stability over multiple quarters [2] - The company's strategy has shifted from short-term promotions to enhancing product strength and customer experience, gradually moving away from price competition [2] Model Implementation - The "5.0 Fresh Model" is being rapidly implemented, focusing on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, which has led to brand upgrades and improved customer experiences [2] - As of the end of September, 106 locations have adopted the "5.0 Fresh Model," with plans to accelerate promotion to exceed 200 locations by the end of the fourth quarter [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Jiumaojiu (09922) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 7% to a new low of 1.84 HKD, with a trading volume of 22.5 million HKD [1] - Jiumaojiu's third-quarter operational data reveals that same-store sales for its main brands continue to decline, with Taier's same-store sales down 9.3% year-on-year, and declines for Songhuo Hotpot and Jiumaojiu Northwest Cuisine at 19.1% and 14.8%, respectively [1] - Despite the negative same-store sales growth, the decline rates for Taier and Jiumaojiu have narrowed compared to the second quarter, indicating initial positive effects from operational adjustments [1] Group 2 - The company is currently adopting a cautious expansion strategy, with its main brands still under pressure, but has clarified its strategic positioning around "fresh ingredients" [1] - The new "5.0 Fresh Model" for Taier's stores has shown promising performance, and the company plans to accelerate its promotion, which may further improve its performance [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Jiumaojiu (09922) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 7% to a new low of 1.84 HKD, with a trading volume of 22.5 million HKD [1] - Jiumaojiu's third-quarter operational data shows that same-store sales for its main brands continue to decline, with Taier's same-store sales down 9.3% year-on-year, and declines for Songhuo Hotpot and Jiumaojiu Northwest Cuisine reaching 19.1% and 14.8%, respectively [1] - Despite the negative same-store sales growth, Jiumaojiu's brands have shown a narrowing decline compared to the second quarter, indicating initial positive effects from operational adjustments, particularly for Taier, which has improved for three consecutive quarters [1] Group 2 - The company is currently adopting a cautious expansion strategy, with its main brands still under pressure, but has clarified its strategic positioning around "fresh ingredients" [1] - The new "5.0 Fresh Model" for Taier's stores has shown promising performance, and the company plans to accelerate its promotion, which is expected to further improve performance [1]

Core Insights - The well-known restaurant group Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) reported that same-store sales for its main brands continue to decline as of Q3 2025 [2] Group 1: Same-Store Sales Performance - The same-store daily sales changes for major brands as of September 30, 2025, show declines: Tai Er (self-operated) -9.3%, Chong Hot Pot -19.1%, and Jiumaojiu (self-operated) -14.8% [3] - Despite the declines, Tai Er's same-store sales drop has been narrowing for three consecutive quarters, with positive growth in key markets like Beijing and Shanghai [3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The improvement in Tai Er's performance is closely related to the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants, which focus on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef [3] - As of the announcement date, Tai Er has established 106 new model restaurants in mainland China and plans to accelerate this rollout, expecting to exceed 200 by the end of 2025 [3] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The table turnover rate, a key indicator of restaurant operational efficiency, shows differentiation: Tai Er's self-operated stores have a turnover rate of 3.3, compared to Chong Hot Pot's 2.4 and Jiumaojiu's 2.5 [4] - Customer average spending has remained relatively stable across major brands, indicating a strategic shift from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience [4] Group 4: Challenges and Competition - Chong Hot Pot, anticipated to be the "third growth curve," has not met expectations, with a 3.5% decline in revenue and a significant 59.6% drop in segment profit in the first half of the year [4] - The competitive hot pot market presents challenges for Chong Hot Pot, particularly in product differentiation, as its youthful atmosphere has not effectively translated into sustained consumer attraction [4]