市场言论和投资者焦点往往会随着时间转变。在当前美国政策多变和科技创新加速的环境下，这种现象尤为明显。 年初至今，关税不明朗因素、通胀压力和美国债务攀升曾是市场的主要忧虑，但经济表现强韧和人工智能推动的强劲盈利克服了这些挑战，支持风险资产在 年初至今表现出色，多项股票指数创下历史新高。 展望未来，我们认为风险资产或仍有进一步上行的空间，但个中原因已有所不同。最大的变化在于市场观望美国降息的日子即将结束：美联储对通胀压力可 能温和且逐步的降温更有信心，决策者的焦点正转向经济增长温和放缓。在此背景下，债券市场有望受惠于降息，我们最近已再次上调投资级别债券的观点 至偏高，对冲基金则下调至中性观点。股债相关度下降，令债券的分散风险效益有所提升。此外，随着美元现金利率下降，原本倾向持有现金资产的投资者 或会考虑布局债市。 来源：汇丰 =丰私人银行 目录 04 欢迎辞 05 投资组合策略 10 五大投资趋势和精选主题 20 股票 つつ 24 外汇和大宗商品 26 对冲基金 28 房地产行业 30 私募市场 32 撰稿人 亚洲应对世界新秩序 10 科技颠覆 12 气候行动 14 社会演进 16 把握盈利和降息顺风时机 18 ...

Core Insights - Google DeepMind announced the establishment of a new research lab in Singapore to advance artificial intelligence development in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - The new lab will collaborate with governments, businesses, communities, and academic institutions in the region to meet local demands [1] - The initiative aims to enhance the global user experience by better serving cloud customers with the latest technologies and products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin International indicates that the operational expenses of China Mobile have increased due to new product development and talent recruitment in AI cloud, which has eroded EBITDA and profit margins. However, the company's profit still grew by 1.4% year-on-year in the third quarter [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - China Mobile's profit increased by 1.4% year-on-year in Q3 [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The demand for AI computing power in cloud services, driven by fully autonomous IP and hardware/software, is expected to significantly boost telecom operators' profitability from the remainder of 2025 and beyond [1]. Group 3: Investment Rating - Zhongyin International maintains a "Buy" rating for China Mobile, with a target price set at HKD 103.2 [1]. - The preference ranking for telecom operators remains unchanged, with China Telecom, China Mobile, and lastly, Unicom [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company is restructuring its investment in the cloud services sector by transferring its stake in the loss-making subsidiary, Guanzhou Xuantong Technology Co., Ltd., to its chairman, Chen Yonghui, to enhance capital efficiency and focus on more profitable business areas [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Financial Changes - Chen Yonghui will inject RMB 20 million into the target company as new registered capital [1] - The seller will sell approximately 16.67% and 20.00% of the target company's registered capital for RMB 5 million and RMB 6 million, respectively [1] - The target company's registered capital will increase from RMB 30 million to RMB 50 million, with Chen Yonghui holding 40.0% post-transaction [1] Group 2: Strategic Rationale - The acquisition by Chen Yonghui is based on strategic, operational, and financial considerations, as the target company has been operating at a loss since its establishment in January 2024 [2] - The decision to transfer the target company aims to alleviate financial strain on the group and improve its image in the capital market [2] - The group plans to cease its self-operated cloud business, which is the main business of the target company, to reallocate resources to more profitable areas [2]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that global cloud capital expenditures (Capex) are expected to reach historical highs in the coming years [1] Group 1: Capital Expenditure Projections - Global Capex for the top 11 hyperscale cloud providers is projected to increase to $445 billion by 2025, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 56%, which is 12 percentage points higher than previous estimates [1] - Preliminary consensus forecasts for 2026 suggest Capex could reach $518 billion, but Morgan Stanley anticipates it may rise to $582 billion, reflecting a 31% year-over-year increase [1] Group 2: Major Cloud Providers - The combined Capex of Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft is expected to reach $359 billion in 2025, marking a 57% year-over-year growth, and further increase to $454 billion in 2026, with a 26% growth rate [1] - These four companies are projected to contribute 77% of the global Capex increase in 2025 [1] Group 3: Revenue and Capex Ratio - The ratio of cloud Capex to revenue is expected to hit a historical high, reaching 18.4% in 2025 and surpassing 20% in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - WhiteFiber, a cloud data center operator spun off from BitDigital, has priced its IPO at $17 per share, at the upper limit of its proposed range, raising $159 million [1] Group 1: IPO Details - The company is issuing 9.4 million shares, raising a total of $159 million [1] - The IPO price is at the upper end of the $15 to $17 price range [1] - The fully diluted market capitalization of the company is approximately $619 million [1] Group 2: Company Background - WhiteFiber claims to be a leading provider of AI infrastructure solutions, focusing on high-performance computing (HPC) data centers utilizing NVIDIA GPUs [1] - The company expanded its operations by acquiring Canadian firm Enovum for CAD 63 million last year [1] - WhiteFiber is planning to build a new data center in North Carolina and has recently expanded its operations in the Montreal area [1] Group 3: Listing Information - WhiteFiber plans to list on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol "WYFI" [1] - B. Riley Securities, Needham & Co., and Macquarie Capital are acting as joint underwriters for the offering [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid trade agreements reached by the Trump administration with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia reflect a strategic shift in U.S. trade policy, aiming to strengthen its economic position while exerting pressure on China [1][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Agreements - The U.S.-Japan trade agreement includes a 15% reciprocal tariff and requires Japan to invest $550 billion in the U.S., with 90% of the profits going to the U.S. [1] - The agreement with the Philippines involves a symbolic 1% tariff reduction, leading to zero tariffs on U.S. goods and market access [3]. - Indonesia is required to eliminate 99% of trade barriers, supply key minerals, and purchase $150 billion in energy products, $45 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft [3]. Group 2: U.S. Domestic Politics - The Trump administration seeks to bolster its domestic support by showcasing trade agreements as diplomatic successes, particularly in light of previous foreign policy challenges [4]. - The administration aims to alleviate domestic economic pressures, especially regarding energy and inflation, by redirecting Chinese oil purchases to U.S. sources [4]. Group 3: U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's strong stance in upcoming trade talks indicates a shift towards a more aggressive approach against China, including potential tariffs on Chinese goods if certain conditions are not met [3][4]. - The U.S. is attempting to limit China's technological advancements by restricting Chinese engineers' access to U.S. defense systems [5]. Group 4: Global Trade Implications - The unilateral trade policies of the U.S. are seen as damaging to the global trade order, undermining the comparative advantages of international trade [7]. - The trade war between the U.S. and China poses risks not only to bilateral relations but also to global economic stability, with potential increases in import costs and inflation in the U.S. [7]. Group 5: China's Response - China is positioned to withstand U.S. pressures due to its large domestic market and diversified trade partnerships, which mitigate the impact of U.S. sanctions [8]. - China's ongoing development and strategic initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, aim to create a more resilient global trade network [8].

Core Viewpoint - 博泰科技 is set to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to issue up to 12.1142 million shares, marking a significant step in its growth strategy within the automotive smart technology sector [2] Company Overview - Founded in 2009, 博泰科技 is one of the early entrants in the vehicle networking industry in China, focusing on a full-stack model that includes software, hardware, and cloud services [2] - The company specializes in smart cockpit domain controllers, vehicle networking systems, and cloud services, covering the entire technology chain from chip adaptation to operating system development [2] Financial Performance - 博泰科技 has shown rapid revenue growth over the past three years, with revenues of 1.218 billion RMB, 1.496 billion RMB, and 2.557 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.9% [3] - The growth is primarily driven by the explosive growth of the new energy vehicle market, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China expected to exceed 50% by 2024 [2][3] - Despite revenue growth, 博泰科技 has not yet achieved profitability, reporting net losses of 452 million RMB, 284 million RMB, and 541 million RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, totaling 1.277 billion RMB in losses over three years [3][4] Research and Development - 博泰科技's R&D expenditures were 277 million RMB, 235 million RMB, and 207 million RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, with R&D expense ratios of 22.8%, 15.7%, and 8.1% respectively [4] - The company has invested heavily in attracting and retaining talent, with employee costs amounting to 217 million RMB, 215 million RMB, and 347 million RMB over the same period [4] Market Strategy - 博泰科技 employs a competitive pricing strategy to capture market share, with average prices for mid-range domain controllers at approximately 1,703 RMB, 1,885 RMB, and 1,965 RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 [5] - The company’s pricing strategy positions its products in the lower to mid-range of the market, which is critical in a fragmented industry [5] Industry Outlook - The Chinese smart cockpit market is projected to grow from 129 billion RMB in 2024 to 299.5 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 18.4% [6] - However, the competitive landscape is intensifying, with major players like Huawei leveraging their ecosystems and new entrants increasing their self-research capabilities, potentially squeezing third-party suppliers [6] - If successful in its IPO, 博泰科技 could become the first smart cockpit stock in Hong Kong, setting a precedent for industry capitalization [6]