民生证券近日发布化工行业周报：根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的出口指导具体情况如 下：1、2025年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在5-9月高峰期，第二批视国内供需动态 调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。3、2025年磷肥出口配额总量比去年减少。当 前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进一步维持 企业盈利水平。 以下为研究报告摘要： 化工周观点： 重点关注半年报业绩好的标的。建议开始寻找二季度景气度好，业绩有望超预期的标 的，建议关注圣泉集团、海利得、卓越新能和瑞联新材。首先是与宏观经济波动相关性较 弱，受益AI资本开支持续提升的新材料行业，圣泉集团是AI服务器中核心电子树脂的主要 国内供应商，随着下游服务器出货量持续放量，公司业绩有望环比提升。其次是海外有工 厂，受益于美国关税冲突的细分行业龙头，建议关注涤纶工业丝的领军企业海利得。并建议 关注公司自身产能增长，随着新项目新产品投产，业绩有望上一个台阶的卓越新能。此外， 瑞联新材已发布2025年半年度业绩预增公告，得益于医药板块收入同比大幅增长、产品结构 优化，预计2025年上半年归母净利润将同比增长69.93%。 磷肥 ...

Industry Overview - The phosphorus pentoxide (P₂O₅) industry in China has shown a robust development trend with both supply and demand increasing significantly. In the first five months of 2025, the production of phosphorus pentoxide reached 25,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.74%, while consumption was 18,600 tons, up 57.75% year-on-year [1][6] - The supply side has seen enhanced raw material security, with national phosphate rock production reaching 47.312 million tons, a 14.4% increase year-on-year. Hubei and Yunnan provinces contributed over 60% of this production, establishing a "dual-core drive" supply structure [1][6] - Demand is characterized by structural upgrades, with traditional agricultural sectors driving the demand for phosphate fertilizers, which in turn boosts the production of basic phosphorus chemical products like monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate, leading to increased industrial consumption of phosphorus pentoxide [1][6] Industry Chain - The upstream of the phosphorus pentoxide industry includes raw materials such as phosphate rock, sulfuric acid, and coal, as well as production equipment like electric furnaces and extraction devices. The midstream involves the manufacturing of phosphorus pentoxide, while the downstream applications span across fertilizers, semiconductor chips, LCDs, lithium battery electrolytes, glass ceramics, pharmaceuticals, and flame retardants [4] Current Industry Status - The industry is experiencing a favorable supply-demand balance, with production and consumption both on the rise. The consumption growth rate significantly outpaces production growth, indicating a shift in downstream applications from traditional agriculture to higher value-added sectors [6][8] Key Enterprises - Major players in the phosphorus pentoxide market include Anhui Longhua Chemical, Yuntianhua Group, and Hubei Yihua. Anhui Longhua is noted for its significant export capacity and technological strength, while Yuntianhua leverages its rich phosphate rock resources for cost advantages [12][15] Development Trends 1. **Technological Innovation and Environmental Upgrades** - Future innovations in the phosphorus pentoxide industry will focus on improving production processes and applying environmental technologies. Companies will prioritize energy conservation and resource recycling, adopting cleaner production methods to reduce harmful emissions [17] 2. **Diversification and High-end Market Demand** - The application fields for phosphorus pentoxide are expanding, with increasing demand in traditional sectors like agriculture and emerging sectors such as new energy and electronics. High-purity phosphorus pentoxide is particularly sought after in semiconductor manufacturing and battery technologies [18] 3. **Industry Consolidation and Market Concentration** - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation, leading to increased market concentration. Larger companies will strengthen their market positions through innovation and expansion, while smaller firms may face greater competitive pressure [19]

Group 1 - The company aims to enhance operational capabilities by upgrading existing assets and processing isooctane and MTBE into finished gasoline to mitigate the negative impact of consumption tax [1] - The first phase of the project is expected to achieve 50% capacity utilization in its first full accounting year, generating revenue of 1.106 billion yuan and a net profit of 15 million yuan [1] - Upon full capacity, the project is projected to generate 2.213 billion yuan in revenue and a net profit of 35 million yuan [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the company's construction in progress amounts to 637 million yuan, an increase of 28.14% from the previous year [2] - The total budget for significant construction projects is 1.761 billion yuan, with a remaining balance of 558 million yuan [2] - Some projects have exceeded 100% completion but have not yet been transferred to fixed assets [2] Group 3 - The company has identified reasons for underutilization of capacity in major projects, including downstream demand, competition, and core product competitiveness [2][3] - Specific measures are being developed to improve capacity utilization, including price adjustments and enhancing product quality [2] - The company is actively exploring new markets, particularly in Africa, to boost sales [2] Group 4 - The company has a liquidity surplus after meeting operational and project funding needs, indicating no liquidity risk [9] - The company plans to optimize its organizational structure and focus on core business areas to improve its capital structure [9] Group 5 - The company acquired a 55% stake in Guan Zhen Technology for 60 million yuan, with performance commitments for net profits from 2022 to 2024 [10] - Guan Zhen Technology's actual net profits fell short of commitments, leading to a compensation obligation of 60 million yuan [10] - The company plans to transfer its stake in Guan Zhen Technology while ensuring compensation payments are made according to the agreed schedule [12] Group 6 - The company has reallocated goodwill among three asset groups, including Guan Zhen Technology, due to significant changes in the industry [15][19] - The reallocation of goodwill is in compliance with accounting standards and reflects the company's strategic adjustments [17][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has experienced explosive growth in mineral product output, with revenue reaching 9.942 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.37%, and a net profit of 1.584 billion yuan, up 53.59% [1][12] - The mining service business is stable, while the mining resource development business is rapidly expanding, indicating that the company's business scale and profitability are entering an accelerated growth phase [1][2] Summary by Sections Mining Service Business - In 2024, the company achieved mining service revenue of 6.544 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.96%, accounting for 65.8% of total revenue [2] - The mining service profit was 1.75 billion yuan, down 8% from the previous year, with a gross margin of 26.75% [2] - The company undertook 35 large-scale mining engineering and mining operation management projects, with a total excavation volume of 4.1717 million cubic meters, down 9%, and a supply mining volume of 41.4918 million tons, up 5.5% [2] Mining Resource Development Business - The mining resource development business generated revenue of 3.209 billion yuan in 2024, a staggering increase of 412.85%, accounting for 32.3% of total revenue [3] - This segment contributed a gross profit of 1.356 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 43.3% [3] - The company acquired 80% of the Lubambe copper mine, which is undergoing technical upgrades to improve capacity utilization [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company expects revenues of 12.877 billion yuan, 14.813 billion yuan, and 16.850 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.347 billion yuan, 2.825 billion yuan, and 3.286 billion yuan [12][13] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.76 yuan, 4.53 yuan, and 5.27 yuan for the same years, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.19, 8.47, and 7.28 [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has experienced explosive growth in mineral product output, with revenue reaching 9.942 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.37%, and a net profit of 1.584 billion yuan, up 53.59% [1][12] - The mining service business remains stable, while the mining resource development business has shown rapid growth, with revenue from this segment increasing by 412.85% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing capital expenditure in the mining industry and the gradual release of its own mining projects, enhancing its performance and valuation elasticity [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 9.942 billion yuan, a 34.37% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.584 billion yuan, reflecting a 53.59% growth [1][12] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.811 billion yuan, up 42.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 422 million yuan, a 54.10% increase [1] Mining Service Business - The mining service business generated revenue of 6.544 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.96% year-on-year, accounting for 65.8% of total revenue [2] - The company undertook 35 large-scale mining engineering and operation management projects, with a total contract amount of approximately 11.5 billion yuan signed in 2024 [2] Mining Resource Development - The mining resource development segment saw revenue of 3.209 billion yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 412.85% year-on-year, contributing a gross profit of 1.356 billion yuan [3] - The company acquired an 80% stake in the Lubambe copper mine, which is expected to enhance production capacity and improve profitability over time [3][10] Future Outlook - The company forecasts operating revenues of 12.877 billion yuan, 14.813 billion yuan, and 16.850 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.347 billion yuan, 2.825 billion yuan, and 3.287 billion yuan [12][13] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 3.76 yuan, 4.53 yuan, and 5.27 yuan, respectively [12][13]