（原标题：21专访｜瑞银胡俊礼：中国科技板块估值合理，看好四个细分赛道） 21世纪经济报道记者 黄子潇 深圳报道 在全球步入低利率周期的背景下，财富管理机构需要重新审视传统策略，探索新的资产配置思路。 在出席2025年湾区财富大会的圆桌讨论后，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)亚洲资产配置主管胡俊 礼接受了21世纪经济报道记者的专访。 11月以来，海外科技股经历了一轮下跌，引发了市场对AI概念股估值过高的担忧。而胡俊礼认为，当 前科技巨头的估值远低于2000年互联网泡沫时期，AI驱动创新仍是未来一年全球股市的重要动力，建 议在"技术赋能层、智能层及应用层"进行多元化布局。 他进一步表示，当前瑞银等国际资管机构主要关注三个问题，一是环球政策的不确定性，二是发达经济 体的债务风险，三是国际科技竞争与供应链重塑进程。 作为亚洲资产配置主管，他表示，目前看好境外中国股票、境内中国高息股票，以及新加坡、印度、印 尼股市。 另一方面，选择相关性较低的资产，是实现分散投资、多元配置的前提条件。胡俊礼认为，2025年以来 中国资产与海外资产的相关性整体呈下降趋势，其推动力包括流动性的充裕和科技创新的加速。 在对中国资产的配 ...

新华财经新加坡11月21日电（记者刘春涛） 星展银行（DBS）20日发布的宏观策略研究报告显示，涵 盖中国、韩国、印度和印度尼西亚等主要市场的亚洲美元信用利差正收窄至疫情以来的最低水平。星展 银行编制的亚洲（除日本外）综合信用利差指数（DACS）已降至约110个基点的历史低位。 （文章来源：新华财经） 报告指出，利差大幅收窄的一个主要原因是市场供应有限。尽管2025年亚洲企业美元债的发行量有所回 升，并有望创下2021年以来的最高水平，但这一规模与2017年至2021年的年度发行高峰相比仍处于低 位。 不过，星展银行也提示了相关风险。报告认为，尽管各类贸易协定和关税豁免可能缓冲了对经济增长的 冲击，但当前亚洲信用债的高估值显得"略微偏高"，且缺乏足够的安全缓冲空间。 此外，尽管全球贸易格局发生变化，亚洲市场对关税壁垒表现出了较强的韧性。 ...

Core Insights - The report by Hanya Investment focuses on the evolution of global trade patterns, central bank interest rate cuts, and policy stimulus, reviewing market performance in Q3 2025 and predicting trends for Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] Market Performance Overview - Global markets experienced a broad rally in Q3 2025, driven by the extension of the US-China trade truce, optimism surrounding AI, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [7] - The S&P 500 index rose by 7.8%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 11.2%. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets with a 10.9% rise, led by China's A-shares (+20.8%) and Taiwan (+14.7%), while India saw a decline of 6.6% [7][8] - Fixed income markets showed volatility, with US Treasury yields declining across the board, and the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.16%. Emerging market dollar bonds led with a 4.8% increase [10] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index rose by 0.9% but was down 9.9% year-to-date. The Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar performed well, while the New Taiwan dollar and South Korean won depreciated significantly [11] Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook indicates differentiated growth, with the US and East Asian economies expected to slow down in Q4 2025 and into H1 2026. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December [2][16] - China's economic growth may decline due to a slowdown in credit growth, with GDP growth targets for 2026 set between 4.5% and 5%. New stimulus policies will focus on consumer subsidies and technology investments [17] - India's economy is showing signs of recovery, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus, while ASEAN economies are relying on domestic demand and policy easing to counteract growth slowdowns [2][16] Monetary Policy and Currency Outlook - The monetary policy environment is entering a loosening phase, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue rate cuts and end quantitative tightening. Other Asian central banks, including those in China and India, are also expected to lower rates [21] - The US dollar is projected to depreciate by 3%-5% in 2026, while the Chinese yuan may appreciate moderately. Other Asian currencies are expected to remain weak until a clear trend of dollar depreciation emerges [2][21] Asset Allocation Strategy - The report suggests a short-term optimistic stance on risk assets, particularly in emerging and Asian markets, while maintaining a neutral long-term outlook. In fixed income, US Treasuries are favored, along with emerging market dollar bonds and Asian credit bonds [3][29] - The report highlights ongoing policy stimulus in Asia, with countries like China, India, and Indonesia implementing measures such as fiscal transfers, tax cuts, and credit support to boost economic recovery [3][17]

Core Viewpoint - The current global economy is exhibiting characteristics of a soft landing, with major economic data generally exceeding expectations, and inflationary pressures gradually easing [1] Economic Environment - The Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that most data from major economies is better than expected [1] - Manufacturing and services PMI show fluctuations but are overall stabilizing [1] - The growth gap between developed and emerging markets is narrowing [1] Asset Performance - Over the past decade, diversified portfolios have demonstrated resilience, with a 60/40 stock-bond investment portfolio yielding an annualized return of 7.18% and a year-to-date return of 7.4% [1] - Historical data shows that after peaks in the VIX index, the average return of the S&P 500 over the following 12 months is 13.7% [1] Investment Strategy - A "multi-asset balanced" framework is recommended, focusing on growth opportunities in developed and Asia-Pacific markets [1] - Developed market stocks offer stability and return potential, while Asia-Pacific stocks (excluding Japan) have long-term upward momentum [1] - On the bond side, attention should be given to Asian credit bonds, global high-yield bonds, and U.S. investment-grade bonds [1] - A balance between interest rate-sensitive assets and defensive assets is crucial, with U.S. Treasuries and cash-like assets serving as hedges against uncertainty [1] Diversification Importance - While diversification does not guarantee profits, it effectively mitigates risks [1] - In a soft landing economic cycle, maintaining long-term allocations and dynamic rebalancing is key to navigating through cycles [1]