全球视野下的中国机遇——展望2026年中国与世界大势 编者按2026年，世界形势怎么走？中国经济怎么看？客观地说，当前，外部环境变化影响加深，中国经济发展仍面临一些困难和挑战。但总体看，中国的 产业基础雄厚、市场空间广阔、发展韧性强劲、宏观政策工具箱充足……经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变。近期，国际货币基金组织、世界 银行等国际组织，高盛、德意志银行等国际投行纷纷上调2026年中国经济增长预期。就像联合国贸易和发展会议秘书长格林斯潘所说，中国经济增长建立 在工业生产、基础设施和物流以及技术方面的优势之上，这意味着中国在全球贸易和价值链中发挥重要作用。国际社会普遍认为，中国"十五五"规划将为 世界经济带来宝贵的确定性和强劲动力。 当前我国供给端面临的挑战 供给和需求是经济运行的一体两面，也是互动共生、相互约束的有机整体。当前供需失衡问题依然存在，不仅限制了我国超大规模市场优势的释放，更成 为制约我国供给体系优化的梗阻和短板。 -吴唱唱- -张小锋- 核心观点 建设强大国内市场是中国式现代化的战略依托，也是优化我国供给体系、推动实现高质量发展的重要支撑。中国大市场将为世界带来广阔的市场机遇、投 资机遇、 ...

Core Insights - Wealth management institutions need to reassess traditional strategies and explore new asset allocation approaches in the context of a global low-interest-rate environment [1] - AI-driven innovation is expected to be a significant driver for global stock markets in the coming year, despite concerns over high valuations in AI concept stocks [4] Group 1: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - UBS's CIO for Asia, Hu Junli, highlights three main concerns for international asset management institutions: global policy uncertainty, debt risks in developed economies, and international tech competition [2][9] - The correlation between Chinese assets and overseas assets has been declining since 2025, driven by ample liquidity and accelerated technological innovation [3] - The Chinese technology sector is viewed as the most attractive investment opportunity due to its reasonable valuations and strong profit growth potential [7][11] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia - UBS is optimistic about offshore Chinese stocks, high-yield domestic Chinese stocks, and markets in Singapore, India, and Indonesia [5][6] - The Asian credit bond market is expected to benefit from strong economic growth, with projected returns of 5%-6% by 2026 [6] Group 3: Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector's earnings are projected to grow by 37% by 2026, making it one of the fastest-growing stock sectors globally [7][12] - The current price-to-earnings ratio for major tech companies is around 30 times, significantly lower than the over 80 times seen during the 1999 internet bubble [4] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flows - The RMB is expected to strengthen against the USD by 2025, influenced by external environment improvements and strong domestic forex deposits [10] - The influx of capital into Hong Kong stocks, particularly in AI and technology sectors, has reached record highs, with net inflows exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year [10]

Summary of Zhongshi Technology Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongshi Technology - **Industry**: Consumer Electronics, Digital Infrastructure, Intelligent Transportation, Clean Energy Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Growth and Client Base**: Zhongshi Technology benefited from the launch of new products by major clients in the consumer electronics sector, leading to a significant increase in shipment volumes in Q3 and October. Key clients include North American giants, Samsung, and domestic smartphone manufacturers, with expansions into wearable devices, gaming consoles, and drones, including partnerships with Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and DJI [2][3][6] 2. **Digital Infrastructure Development**: The company collaborates with leading clients like Ericsson, Nokia, Huawei, and ZTE in the digital infrastructure sector, focusing on 5G/6G communication, industrial internet, satellite internet, and AI-driven data and computing centers. Future growth in this area is anticipated [2][7] 3. **Intelligent Transportation Sector**: Zhongshi Technology supplies automotive-grade thermal management materials to companies like BYD, BAIC, and XPeng Motors, and collaborates with top-tier automotive parts manufacturers to provide customized thermal solutions [2][8] 4. **Financial Performance**: In Q3 2025, sales and R&D expenses decreased by over 8 million and 7 million respectively, while gross margin and revenue increased, attributed to cost structure optimization and improved operational efficiency [2][11][12] 5. **Product Offerings**: The company’s main products include: - Graphite films for consumer electronics - Thermal interface materials (TIM) for heat dissipation - High-efficiency cooling modules for high-performance applications - Electromagnetic shielding materials for communication devices - Adhesives for electronic device assembly [10][11] 6. **Light Module Business**: Zhongshi Technology collaborates with Finisar to provide thermal solutions for optical modules, with expectations of significant revenue growth as Finisar's 1.6T module market share increases. Total revenue from optical modules reached several million in the first three quarters [2][18][20] 7. **Cost Management**: The decrease in sales expenses is partly due to the sale of a subsidiary in 2024, which previously accounted for 95% of its expenses. Additionally, the company optimized its sales strategy, focusing on major clients, which reduced operational costs [13] 8. **Production Capacity**: The company has multiple production bases in China and has established a facility in Thailand, with a total planned capacity of 3 to 5 billion yuan. Current capacity utilization meets demand, with future investments aligned with market needs [17] 9. **Future Outlook**: The company anticipates continued growth in the optical module market and expects to leverage its technological advantages in liquid cooling solutions for servers. The demand for liquid cooling is expected to rise significantly, driven by various hardware manufacturers and computing centers [24][25] 10. **Q4 Expectations**: The company expects Q4 performance to remain strong, driven by the successful launch of new products by major clients, although a slight decrease in sequential growth compared to Q3 is anticipated [23] Additional Important Information - **R&D Focus**: The company maintains a strong emphasis on R&D, with innovative solutions in advanced thermal management materials, which are crucial for maintaining competitive advantages in various sectors [4][6] - **Market Trends**: The overall market for optical modules is expected to experience significant growth, with increased demand from chip manufacturers and server companies, indicating a favorable environment for Zhongshi Technology's offerings [21]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent adjustments in QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) holdings in A-shares as companies disclose their Q3 reports, highlighting a clear trend in foreign investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Sovereign Wealth Fund Adjustments - Sovereign wealth funds like the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and the Monetary Authority of Macao have shown distinct trading behaviors, with ADIA significantly increasing its holdings in cyclical resource stocks, particularly Baofeng Energy, which now has a market value exceeding 790 million yuan [3][4]. - In contrast, the Monetary Authority of Macao has adopted a more defensive and stable investment strategy, focusing on resource, environmental, and manufacturing sectors, with a total market value of 1.14 billion yuan across six stocks [3][4]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has reduced its holdings in Chengde Lolo, now holding 9.3 million shares, indicating a cautious approach compared to ADIA's aggressive positioning [4]. Group 2: Traditional Foreign Banks' Strategies - Major foreign banks like Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Goldman Sachs have shown a trend towards concentrated investments in high-certainty sectors, with Morgan Stanley holding 42 A-shares valued at 2.874 billion yuan, focusing on electric power equipment and digital infrastructure [5][6]. - Morgan Chase has the largest coverage with 71 A-shares, significantly increasing its stake in China West Electric from 56.82 million shares to 130 million shares, reflecting a strategic shift towards high-potential stocks [5]. - UBS has diversified its holdings across 55 A-shares, emphasizing mid-to-small-cap growth stocks, while Goldman Sachs has concentrated on resource and chemical stocks, indicating varied investment philosophies among these institutions [5][6]. Group 3: Common Holdings Among Foreign Institutions - Several stocks have emerged as "foreign consensus stocks," held by three or more foreign institutions, indicating strong compatibility in valuation, fundamentals, and policy direction [7][8]. - Notable examples include Chengfei Integration, which is held by multiple institutions with a total market value exceeding 132 million yuan, and Innovation Medical, favored by four foreign entities [7][8]. - Other stocks like Lianhuan Pharmaceutical and Xingwang Yuda have also gained traction among foreign investors, showcasing a trend towards core assets in advanced manufacturing, healthcare, TMT, and military materials sectors [8].

Core Viewpoint - Guangyu Cloud Technology Co., Ltd. has officially launched its "Angel+ Round" financing, focusing on the construction of global digital infrastructure in the Web 3.0 era, with a target of 100 million yuan [1] Company Overview - Guangyu Cloud has signed contracts for projects exceeding 10 billion yuan and market contracts exceeding 600 million yuan, with potential contracts exceeding 30 billion yuan, indicating strong future growth potential [1] - The company has signed over 100 ecological service providers and has the potential to serve over 500,000 enterprises, establishing a broad industrial service network [1] Business Development - The third-generation commercial cloud service was officially launched on August 28, providing more efficient solutions for enterprise digital transformation [1] - The company successfully held the "2025 Global Computing Industry Forum and Distributed Computing Conference," enhancing its industry influence and promoting collaborative development in the computing industry [1] Financing Purpose - The funds from this financing will primarily be used for the technological research and global layout of Web 3.0 digital infrastructure, aiming to better serve the global market and inject new vitality into the high-quality development of the digital economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The digital economy is significantly transforming daily life in Guizhou, enabling residents to easily complete various tasks such as travel booking, shopping, and government services through mobile devices, enhancing the quality of life and stimulating new consumption potential [1][4]. Digital Infrastructure - Guizhou has achieved full 5G network coverage in administrative villages, with over 99.9% mobile network coverage in natural villages, laying a solid foundation for digital consumption [4]. - The provincial government launched the "Colorful Guizhou Happy Shopping" campaign during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, distributing consumption vouchers and offering discounts to consumers [4]. Consumer Trends - The retail sales of communication equipment in Guizhou are projected to grow over 30% year-on-year by mid-2025, with basic software development increasing by over 100%, indicating a strong support for consumption driven by digital industries [5]. - Digital technology is making shopping more convenient, with residents enjoying the benefits of online shopping and quick delivery services [5]. Smart Tourism - The "AI Tour of Xijiang" experience center has become a popular attraction, offering AI photography and smart ticketing services that enhance the visitor experience [7]. - The virtual assistant "Huang Xiaoxi" provides comprehensive travel services through a WeChat mini-program, making it easier for tourists to plan their trips [7]. - Innovative projects like the "Red Ribbon" initiative use immersive digital technology to create engaging new consumption scenarios for tourists [7][8]. Daily Life Applications - Big data applications in healthcare and government services are enhancing convenience for residents, such as the "24/7 Government Service Station" and "smart photo examination machines" that streamline processes [12]. - These innovations save time for citizens, allowing them to focus on enjoying life rather than running errands, thereby releasing consumer potential and improving quality of life [12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for China's foreign greenfield investment, highlighting its importance as a strategic approach for companies to expand globally and enhance competitiveness [6][40]. Core Insights - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, with China's "going out" strategy evolving into deeper localization in operations, making greenfield investment a key method for companies to navigate challenges such as unilateralism and trade friction [6][7]. - China's foreign greenfield investment has shown a recovery in scale, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and digital infrastructure, which have redefined the international image of "Made in China" [6][40]. - The report outlines three stages of China's foreign greenfield investment, emphasizing the transition from resource acquisition to enhancing supply chain resilience and local operations [48][51]. Summary by Sections Global Greenfield Investment Scale - Global greenfield investment reached a historical high of $1.41 trillion in 2023, with a slight decrease to $1.34 trillion in 2024, marking the second-highest level recorded [20][24]. - The number of global greenfield investment projects increased by 3% in 2024, totaling 19,356 projects [20]. China's Foreign Greenfield Investment Stages - The report identifies three stages of China's foreign greenfield investment: 1. Exploration phase (1990s to 2017) focused on resource acquisition and basic infrastructure [48][53]. 2. Expansion phase (2018 to 2024) driven by the Belt and Road Initiative, emphasizing capacity output and market share [48][55]. 3. Localization phase (from 2025) aimed at enhancing supply chain resilience and deepening local operations [48][51]. Challenges and Strategies - Companies face challenges such as complex international environments, legal compliance, and cultural differences in their greenfield investment endeavors [7]. - The report provides insights into key investment strategies, including precise site selection, tax planning, and ensuring data security, to optimize investment strategies and enhance operational efficiency [7][40]. Sector-Specific Trends - The information and communication technology sector saw a significant increase in greenfield investment, reaching $211 billion in 2024, a 73% year-on-year growth [35]. - Conversely, traditional sectors like energy and mining experienced declines in investment, with energy and natural gas investments dropping by 28% to $273 billion [35][36]. Regional Investment Dynamics - The report highlights that developed regions like the EU and the US continue to dominate global greenfield investment, while China's share increased to 12% in 2023 before declining to 6% in 2024 due to reduced investments in mining [24][30]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, are becoming focal points for Chinese companies seeking to expand their global footprint [66].

Report Overview - On September 4, 2025, there were 26 investment and financing events disclosed in domestic and foreign venture capital markets, including 20 domestic enterprises and 6 foreign enterprises, with a total financing amount of about 20.885 billion yuan [3] Fundraising Events - Nanjing Advanced Manufacturing Industry Special Mother Fund plans to participate in a subsidiary fund, namely Nanjing Yuexiu Strategic New Technology Industry Investment Fund (Limited Partnership) (provisional name), with a target scale of 1 billion yuan, to be registered in Pukou District, Nanjing, and a duration of 10 years, focusing on intelligent equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit industries [3] - Jiaxing State - owned Investment established an emerging industry guidance fund with an expected total scale of 1 billion yuan, focusing on new materials and new quality productivity fields [5] Large - scale Financing - Shanghai Xizhi Technology Co., Ltd. completed over 1.5 billion yuan in Series C financing, which will accelerate the development of core technologies and the large - scale implementation of optoelectronic hybrid computing power [6] - Longsheng Huachen completed 12 million yuan in angel - round financing, which will be used for the iteration and upgrade of the self - developed digital supply chain platform, etc. [7] - Sichuan Dinglong Chuangzhi Technology Group Co., Ltd. completed 10 million yuan in angel - round financing, which will be used for intelligent equipment R & D and market expansion [8] - Khazna Data completed a strategic financing of 2.62 billion US dollars to support its expansion plans in the UAE and international markets [10] Global IPO - Huaxin Precision Technology officially listed on the Main Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, raising 814 million yuan [11] Policy Focus - The State Council issued an opinion to release sports consumption potential and promote the high - quality development of the sports industry, aiming to cultivate world - influential sports enterprises and events by 2030 [12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an action plan for the stable growth of the electronic information manufacturing industry from 2025 - 2026, with expected average growth rates of about 7% for value - added and over 5% for annual revenue [13]

Core Insights - The strategic alliance between the US and India is facing a historic test due to the tariff war and energy sanctions initiated by the Trump administration, which threatens to dismantle decades of strategic trust built between the two nations [1][3] - The US's recent actions, including a 25% punitive tariff on $5.6 billion worth of Indian goods and the linkage of tariff exemptions to India's foreign policy choices, signify a significant shift in US policy towards India [1][3] - India's swift and strong response highlights the growing discontent with US policies, as evidenced by a significant increase in public support for reducing dependence on the US [5] Trade and Economic Relations - The US imposed a 25% tariff on $5.6 billion of Indian imports, with the potential for secondary sanctions on India's energy and military trade with Russia [1][3] - India's counter-argument includes data showing the EU's increased trade deficit with Russia and the rise in US-approved imports of Russian uranium products, challenging the US's stance [3][5] - The direct investment between US and Indian companies has surpassed $280 billion, indicating a deep interdependence that could act as a stabilizing factor amidst political tensions [9] Geopolitical Dynamics - The geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific region is being reshaped by the US-India tensions, with experts warning that the US's short-sighted actions could undermine the security architecture it helped build [5][6] - The Indian government is accelerating free trade negotiations with the EU and Gulf countries, particularly in sectors most affected by US tariffs, such as pharmaceuticals and IT services [5][6] - The US Department of Defense continues to view India as a key strategic partner, despite the current tensions, as evidenced by ongoing military procurement and collaboration [6] Crisis Management and Future Outlook - To break the current deadlock, a multi-layered crisis management mechanism is needed, including the establishment of informal networks for dialogue [8][10] - The dual motivations behind Trump's actions, including a desire to counter Russia and personal political ambitions, may provide India with potential leverage in negotiations [8][10] - Historical experience suggests that repairing major power relations is complex and may take years, but there is a critical six-month window for both nations to avoid a dangerous strategic decoupling [10]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 748 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 121 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 93.74% [1] - The company achieved a non-recurring net profit of 111 million yuan, marking a substantial growth of 148.28% year-on-year [1] Business Performance - The company is experiencing a steady increase in profitability due to the ramp-up of new products and projects, driven by a recovery in market demand within the consumer electronics sector [1] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 31.31%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 16.24%, up by 6.61 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a leading position in the artificial graphite materials sector and is expanding its market share in die-cut components, with applications extending from smartphones to tablets and laptops [2] - The company is actively involved in the AI industry, providing solutions for AI terminal devices and infrastructure, and has achieved full coverage of major clients in the 3C industry [2] - In the digital infrastructure sector, the company is supplying core components and materials to major telecommunications manufacturers, with accelerated market applications for its VC module products [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 266 million yuan, 320 million yuan, and 373 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 41, 34, and 30 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable investment outlook [3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for thermal management solutions driven by the growth of generative AI terminal devices [3]