Group 1 - The social security system is transforming from a simple safety net into a robust buffer against risks, supporting China's economic transition amid challenges like weak exports, high local debt, and aging population [1] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism of social security rates is crucial for fostering innovation, as evidenced by a biotech company reducing labor costs by 5% while increasing research positions by 14% due to policy incentives [3] - The social security fund is exploring innovative paths to address hidden debts through equity investments, with pilot projects in affordable housing REITs yielding a 6.8% annual return while absorbing 111,200 units of inventory [4] Group 2 - The cross-provincial adjustment mechanism of unemployment insurance is becoming vital in the context of industrial restructuring, with the central adjustment fund ratio increasing from 3% to 5% to enhance labor market fluidity [6] - The national coordination of social security is a systematic upgrade of risk hedging mechanisms, with a focus on efficient fund utilization in housing construction through special government bonds [9] - The upgrade of the social security system is emerging as a new logic for China's economic development, acting as both a stabilizer for society and a catalyst for economic transformation [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall year-on-year revenue growth rate of public REITs declined marginally by 3 pct to -3%. The financial completion rate remained at a high level. Except for the water supply limitation of Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water, resulting in a 68% revenue completion rate for the water conservancy facilities sector, the revenue completion rates of the remaining sectors were above 93%. Due to the non-arrival of subsidies, the distributable amount completion rate of the energy sector was only 48%, while the completion rates of the remaining sectors were all above 94% [2]. - Consumption and affordable housing are still high-performing sectors with high revenue growth. Consumption revenue increased by 4% year-on-year, with a completion rate of 102%/114% (revenue/distributable amount, excluding new bonds, the same below), continuing to lead. The month-on-month changes of individual bonds were divergent. Huaxia Capital and CIFI Group's CM奥莱 and Huaan Bailian were weaker than other individual bonds. The market seemed to accept the seasonal attribution of Huaxia Capital and CIFI Group's CM奥莱's manager, and it rose slightly by 1.48% after the release of the second-quarter report (from July 18th to July 29th, the same throughout the text). Huaan Bailian, on the other hand, fell by 8.88%. Affordable housing revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, with a completion rate of 100%/98%, and the occupancy rate remained relatively stable [2]. - The performance of warehousing and logistics was better than expected. Although it continued to "exchange price for volume", most assets were able to achieve a stable or increasing occupancy rate, and the sector's revenue stabilized marginally. The year-on-year revenue decreased by 4%, with a month-on-month growth rate increase of 2 pct, and the completion rate was 97%/98%. The main operating pressure on the sector came from the entry of competitors rather than trade frictions. The coastal warehousing and logistics operations of Hongtu Yantian Port and Huaxia Shenzhen International Hangzhou Project were not weak [3]. - The energy sector had a high revenue completion rate, but the quarterly fluctuations in distributable amounts dragged down the market performance. The year-on-year revenue increased by 1%, with a completion rate of 99%/48%. The delayed payment of national subsidies for wind and solar projects led to cash flow shortages, and the distributable completion rate of some projects was below 53%. If the subsidies are concentrated in the second half of the year, the completion rate is expected to improve [3]. - The sectors with weak performance were mainly industrial parks and transportation. The revenue of industrial parks decreased by 14% year-on-year, and the decline marginally widened by 4 pct. The completion rates were 93%/96%, both relatively low among all sectors. Many industrial parks mentioned the pressure from the entry of competitors, and the occupancy rates generally decreased month-on-month. However, factory projects showed operational resilience, and the occupancy rates of some factories increased against the trend. After the release of the second-quarter report, the market repriced the operational resilience of Bosera Jinkai Industrial Park [3]. - The revenue of the transportation sector decreased by 2% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 2 pct marginally. Only a few individual bonds showed operational improvements [3]. - Since late June, risk appetite has recovered, and stable, high-dividend assets have weakened. As of July 29th, the CSI REITs Total Return Index has corrected by 3% from its peak. In late June, the CSI REITs Total Return Index reached a phased high in February 2023, and its relative cost-effectiveness compared to stocks and bonds was relatively low. Driven by the recovery of risk appetite and the increase in REITs supply, REITs prices have declined. Valuation compression was the main theme of trading during the quarterly report period. Sectors and individual bonds with high year-to-date gains tended to fall, and price changes did not fully match performance. However, individual bonds with outstanding performance were also priced [4]. - REITs may enter a volatile range, and stable sectors are still preferred. On the one hand, REITs valuations are not low, and the improvement in risk appetite may continue. June may be a phased high. On the other hand, on July 25th, the cash distribution rate of property rights REITs was 3.86%, and the overall market IRR was 4.05%. There was still a spread of 232 BP between the IRR and the 10-year Treasury bond, supporting investor demand. Observe whether the REITs index can stabilize at the previous low price level (such as the level at the end of April). Currently, it is judged that the volatile range of the CSI Dividend Total Return is between 1052 - 1125 (1052 is the low in April, and 1125 is the high in June). If risk appetite changes drastically, it may break through the volatile range, while a slowdown in REITs supply will help stabilize the bottom of the range. When selecting bonds, first, the valuation advantages of sectors with relatively stable cycles are not extreme (the IRR spread is at the median), and stable sectors have performance support. It is expected that stable sectors such as consumption and affordable housing will still perform better. Second, the arrival of national subsidies is theoretically a short-term impact, and there may be investment opportunities after the adjustment of new energy individual bonds is in place. Third, factory-type individual bonds in industrial parks are still worthy of attention [5]. Summary by Directory REITs Overall - The overall revenue growth rate of REITs was -3% year-on-year, a 3 pct decline compared to Q1 2025. The revenue of property rights REITs decreased by 4% year-on-year. Consumption and affordable housing had positive year-on-year growth, warehousing and logistics and affordable housing stabilized marginally, while industrial parks continued to decline. The year-on-year revenue growth rates of industrial parks, warehousing and logistics, affordable housing, and consumption were -14%, -4%, +6%, and +4% respectively, with marginal changes of -4 pct, +2 pct, +6 pct, and -53 pct compared to Q1 2025. The revenue of franchise rights REITs decreased by 2% year-on-year, and the energy sector performed relatively well. The year-on-year revenue growth rates of transportation, energy, and environmental protection were -2%, +1%, and -6% respectively, with marginal changes of -2 pct, +19 pct, and -2 pct compared to Q1 2025 [17]. - After excluding the impact of new bonds, the overall market operating revenue completion rate was 96%. The revenue completion rates of the municipal, consumption, and affordable housing sectors met the standards. The distributable amount completion rate of the energy sector was relatively low due to the existence of an account period for new energy subsidies, resulting in quarterly fluctuations in the distributable amount. The completion rates of the remaining sectors were all above 94% [18][23]. Market Reaction - Since late June, risk appetite has recovered, and stable, high-dividend assets have weakened. The CSI REITs Total Return Index reached its peak on June 20th and had corrected by 3% by July 29th. Valuation compression was the main theme of trading during the quarterly report period, causing the rise and fall of REITs to not fully match performance. The month-on-month increase of individual bonds after the release of the quarterly report was generally negatively correlated with the year-to-date increase. The affordable housing sector with a high year-on-year revenue growth rate fell by 2.86%, not significantly better than other sectors, which was related to its high valuation and year-to-date increase. The industrial park sector with the most obvious marginal weakening of performance did not decline significantly, possibly because its valuation was not high, and the cash distribution rate on July 18th was at the 53% percentile in history. Some individual bonds with low valuations did not decline significantly even if their performance remained weak, such as CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley and Jianxin Zhongguancun. Some individual bonds with performance that exceeded expectations, such as Bosera Jinkai Industrial Park, Huatai Jiangsu Expressway, and Huaxia JINMAO Commercial, continued to rise on the basis of their significant increases this year. Several energy REITs with low distributable amounts and Guangfa Chengdu Gaotou with a large decline in occupancy rate fell significantly. Consumption had a high year-to-date increase and was still one of the three best-performing sectors after the quarterly report, indicating strong market recognition of this sector [27]. Sector Analysis - **Industrial Parks**: The revenue of industrial parks decreased by 14% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 4 pct compared to the previous quarter. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable amount completion rate were 93% and 96% respectively. The occupancy rates generally decreased month-on-month, while rents varied. Factory-type projects showed performance resilience. New supply led to intensified competition. Some individual bonds faced significant performance pressure. At the individual bond level, Jianxin Zhongguancun Industrial Park, Huaxia Hefei High-tech, Huaxia Hangzhou HeDa High-tech, CICC Hubei KeTou, and others were worthy of attention [31][32]. - **Warehousing and Logistics**: The revenue of warehousing and logistics decreased by 4% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 2 pct compared to the previous quarter. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable amount completion rate were 97% and 98% respectively. It adopted a strategy of "exchanging price for volume", and the occupancy rates of most assets were stable or increasing. The main operating pressure came from the entry of surrounding competitors. At the individual bond level, Hongtu Yantian Port, CICC Puluosi, Huaxia Shenzhen International Warehouse Logistics, and others were worthy of attention [36]. - **Affordable Housing**: The revenue of the affordable housing sector increased by 6% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 6 pct compared to the previous quarter. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable amount completion rate were 100% and 98% respectively. The occupancy rates of the underlying assets fluctuated slightly, with most fluctuations within 2 pct [45]. - **Consumption**: The revenue of the consumption sector increased by 4% year-on-year. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable amount completion rate were 102% and 114% respectively. The month-on-month revenue was divergent. Huaxia Capital and CIFI Group's CM奥莱 and Huaan Bailian's month-on-month revenue were at least 10 pct lower than other individual bonds. At the individual bond level, Huaxia Vanke Commercial, Huaxia Capital and CIFI Group's CM奥莱, and Yifangda Huawai Agricultural Trade were worthy of attention [46]. - **Transportation**: The revenue of the transportation sector decreased by 2% year-on-year, and the decline widened by 2 pct compared to Q1 2025. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable amount completion rate were 95% and 97% respectively. Some individual bonds, such as Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe, CICC Anhui Expressway, and Huatai Jiangsu Expressway, performed well. At the individual bond level, Huaxia China Communications Construction, CICC Anhui Expressway, Zhongjin Shandong High-Speed, and others were worthy of attention [51]. - **Energy**: The revenue of the energy sector increased by 1% year-on-year, a 19 pct increase compared to Q1 2025, reflecting the large quarterly fluctuations in the revenue of the energy sector. The revenue and distributable amount completion rates were 99% and 48% respectively. The accounts receivable of new energy REITs such as photovoltaic and wind power were relatively high, resulting in a significantly lower distributable amount completion rate than the revenue completion rate. It is expected that the distributable amount completion rate will gradually increase in the second half of the year. At the individual bond level, Penghua Shenzhen Energy, CITIC Construction Investment National Power Investment New Energy, and others were worthy of attention [55]. - **Utilities**: Except for Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water, the revenue completion rates were at a relatively high level of 95% - 110%. At the individual bond level, AVIC Shougang Biology and Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water were worthy of attention [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the REITs sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the coming years [7]. Core Insights - The REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment in 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy-driven projects, selecting resilient assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs [4]. - The report highlights a trend of performance divergence among various REIT sectors, emphasizing the importance of timing in investment decisions [1][4]. Summary by Sections Warehousing and Logistics - In Q2 2025, the average occupancy rate for warehousing logistics REITs was 94.3%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 4.4 percentage points [10]. - The average rental rate was 52.4 CNY/sqm/month, reflecting a competitive market where tenants are cautious about renewing leases [10][11]. Consumer Infrastructure - The average occupancy rate for consumer infrastructure REITs in Q2 2025 was 97.1%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points, although it saw a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points [14]. - The average rental rate was 217.9 CNY/sqm/month, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.9% but a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [14][15]. Affordable Housing - The average occupancy rate for affordable housing REITs was 96.0% in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points [20]. - The average rental rate was 54.0 CNY/sqm/month, indicating stability in rental income despite slight fluctuations [20]. Industrial Parks - The report notes a decline in both occupancy rates and rental income for industrial parks, driven by increased competition and economic pressures [2]. Highways - In Q2 2025, highway REITs experienced a seasonal decline in traffic volume, but year-on-year comparisons showed recovery, particularly in freight traffic which increased by 1.3% [3]. Energy and Environmental Protection - The performance of energy and environmental protection REITs was mixed, with wind power projects performing well while solar projects faced challenges due to decreased sunlight and increased competition [3].

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of Guangzhou's allocated affordable housing, including Jia Cui Yuan and Luo Gang He Yuan, began selection on June 18, with significant participation and notable abandonment rates indicating market interest and buyer behavior [1][5]. Group 1: Selection Process and Participation - On the first day, approximately 240 participants selected around 150 units in Jia Cui Yuan, resulting in an abandonment rate of about 37.5% [2]. - In Luo Gang He Yuan, 180 participants selected around 120 units, with an abandonment rate of approximately 33.3% [5]. - The total number of units available in Jia Cui Yuan is 400, with a base selling price of 17,300 yuan per square meter, while Luo Gang He Yuan has 936 units priced at 15,800 yuan per square meter [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior - The number of participants in the selection process was roughly double the available units, indicating strong interest in the affordable housing market [7]. - A significant percentage of buyers opted for three-bedroom units, with 93% in Luo Gang He Yuan and 88% in Jia Cui Yuan, suggesting a preference for larger family accommodations [7]. - The initial abandonment rates provide insight into the popularity of the first batch of allocated affordable housing, reflecting buyers' considerations of project factors and personal circumstances [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Value Proposition - If the final absorption rate stabilizes around 70%, it would outperform many market commodity housing options, highlighting the competitive value of these affordable units [8]. - The depreciation rate for repurchase prices at 1% per year is seen as a significant advantage compared to the current declining prices of commodity housing, making these affordable units more attractive [8]. - The decision to purchase is influenced by buyers' desire for stability in living conditions, particularly for families with children, indicating a potential shift in housing demand dynamics [9][10].

Core Points - The second lottery for selecting housing numbers for the first batch of subsidized housing in Guangzhou took place on June 7, with 2,429 out of 9,005 initial applicants proceeding to this stage [1] - Families expressed joy and gratitude towards the government for providing opportunities for affordable housing, with many sharing their excitement with relatives and friends [1][2] - The lottery results indicated that 1,714 families applied for the Luogang and Garden, while 715 families applied for the Jiacuityuan [1] Group 1 - The lottery process was witnessed by representatives from the Guangzhou Notary Office, applicant families, and media [1] - Following the lottery, families can check their selection numbers on the official website of the Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau or through the "Chengyi Yiju" and "Guangzhou Anju Group" WeChat accounts [2] - The selection ceremony for the chosen housing units is expected to be held soon at Luogang and Garden and Jiacuityuan [2]