21 December 2025 | 7:09PM HKT Economics Research China: Three things in China Three quick highlights from China: n November activity data weak: China's domestic activity stayed sluggish, with industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment (FAI) all missing expectations. Retail sales growth dropped to 1.3% yoy—the lowest since the Covid pandemic—due to limited consumer goods trade-in subsidies and a payback from earlier online sales festivals. Single-month FAI continued to post double-digit ...

固定收益专题报告 逻辑一：P/NAV 回归到均值附近，配置价值逐渐显现。 自去年年初以来，伴随二级市场的强劲上涨，全市场 P/NAV 估值水平已从 均值-2 倍标准差的低位，启动了一轮持续的修复行情。25 年 7 月以来随着 市场整体调整，P/NAV 震荡下行，目前已回落至历史均值+1 倍标准差以内 的合理区间，长期资金配置窗口已打开。 逻辑二：基本面仍是核心，估值修复阶段业绩好的板块反弹动能更强。 复盘 10 月 21 日以来的市场表现，涨幅领先的为数据中心（5.34%）、保租 房（3.81%）、消费（3.28%）和市政环保（3.02%）板块。这些板块在三季 度运营情况较为稳健，成为市场资金在估值修复过程中优先配置的重点。 REITs 配置窗口渐进，聚焦三季报韧性主线 核心结论 【核心结论】 当前 REITs 市场经历回调后估值趋于合理，对于长期配置型资金而言具备 较高的投资性价比，可把握优质项目的逢调整配置机会。建议以三季度业绩 为依据，沿两条主线布局：一是基本面韧性较强的板块，如数据中心、保租 房等；二是四季度业绩有望实现环比改善的 REITs，如受益于国庆假期及"双 十一"促销活动的奥莱项目。 此外， ...

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has expanded the scope of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal projects, which encompasses the renovation of old neighborhoods and factories, as well as comprehensive urban renewal facilities [1][2] - The integration of urban renewal with market-oriented rental housing is expected to revitalize existing assets and meet housing demands in major cities, while avoiding large-scale demolitions [2][3] - The updated list of eligible projects now includes new asset types such as hotels and sports venues, with specific guidelines on their inclusion in the REITs framework [3][4] Summary by Categories Policy Expansion - The newly released list includes urban renewal facilities and commercial office facilities as new sectors for REITs [3] - The inclusion of urban renewal is seen as a strategic move to support the transformation of the real estate industry towards a new development model focused on operation and revitalization of existing assets [1][2] Market Dynamics - The combination of urban renewal and rental housing aligns well with the financing characteristics of REITs, which require stable, long-term funding for projects with significant upfront investment and long cultivation periods [2][3] - The NDRC has been actively working to expand the infrastructure REITs market since its initiation in 2020, with 12 major industries and 52 asset types now included, and 18 asset types having already achieved their first issuance [2][3] Project Guidelines - The new guidelines specify that the initiators of projects in rental housing, consumer infrastructure, commercial office facilities, elderly care facilities, and urban renewal must be independent legal entities focused on long-term operations rather than short-term sales [4] - The maximum allowable area for hotels and commercial office spaces within the underlying assets of a REIT project is set at 30%, with exceptions allowing up to 50% in special cases [3][4]

Group 1: REITs Expansion - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities [1][2] - Since its launch in 2020, the REITs market has expanded to cover 12 major industries and 52 asset types, with 18 asset types from 10 industries having achieved their first issuance [2] Group 2: "Two Heavy" Construction Achievements - The NDRC has allocated 7 trillion yuan and 8 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds for 2024 and 2025, respectively, to support 1,465 and 1,459 "hard investment" projects [3] - Significant improvements in urban safety resilience have been achieved through the construction and renovation of urban underground pipelines [3] - Over 100,000 new high school seats have been created, and 15,000 hospital wards have been renovated to improve healthcare conditions [3] Group 3: Credit Repair and Humanoid Robots - The NDRC has issued the "Credit Repair Management Measures," which will take effect on April 1, 2026, addressing challenges in credit repair management [4] - The NDRC emphasizes the need to balance speed and potential bubbles in the humanoid robot industry, aiming to prevent market saturation and ensure orderly development [5] - The establishment of industry standards and evaluation systems for the humanoid robot sector is a priority, along with support for collaborative technological advancements [5]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has been actively promoting the expansion of the infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) market since its initiation in 2020 [1] - Initially, the issuance scope included sectors such as warehousing logistics, toll roads, municipal facilities, and industrial parks, with subsequent expansions to include clean energy, data centers, affordable rental housing, water conservancy facilities, cultural tourism, and consumer infrastructure [1] - Currently, the issuance scope encompasses 12 major industries and 52 asset types, with 18 asset types across 10 industries having successfully completed their first issuance and listing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and 12 other departments have issued an implementation plan to support the expansion of consumption in Beijing, focusing on infrastructure and commercial circulation systems [1] Group 1: Financial Support Measures - Financial institutions are encouraged to actively engage with key projects related to the construction of Beijing as an international consumption center and other significant consumption projects [1] - The plan emphasizes optimizing financial products and services, including adjusting loan approval conditions based on borrowers' credit status and repayment capabilities [1] - It proposes to provide preferential loan rates and reduce financing costs for market entities [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The implementation plan supports the issuance of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) for eligible consumption infrastructure projects [1] - It highlights the importance of upgrading commercial districts, renewing business formats, and building circulation systems [1]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recommended a total of 105 infrastructure REITs projects to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), with 83 projects already issued and listed, raising a total of 207 billion yuan, which is expected to drive new project investments exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Infrastructure REITs Development - Infrastructure REITs are an effective way to revitalize existing infrastructure assets through the public market, serving as a crucial link between the real economy and capital markets [2]. - The NDRC aims to promote the normalization of the recommendation and issuance of infrastructure REITs in 2024, expanding the market further [2][3]. Group 2: Private Investment Projects - The NDRC has recommended 18 private investment projects to the CSRC, with 14 projects already issued and listed, raising nearly 30 billion yuan [2]. - Private investment projects have become "first projects" in various fields, demonstrating a positive demonstration effect [2]. Group 3: Future Initiatives - The NDRC plans to enhance collaboration with the CSRC to support more eligible private investment projects for issuance, thereby broadening financing channels for private enterprises and promoting a virtuous cycle of investment and financing [3]. - The NDRC will focus on expanding the market by increasing the number of mature asset type project applications and facilitating the first listings of new asset types [3]. - A special coordination service mechanism will be established to address challenges faced by private investment projects in the REITs issuance process [3]. Group 4: Policy Support for Private Investment - The NDRC will continue to implement policies that support the listing and financing of technology-driven enterprises and mergers and acquisitions through a "green channel" [4]. - The NDRC aims to create a comprehensive national investment and financing service platform to enhance efficient connections between financing and credit services, targeting more precise credit resource allocation to private enterprises [4].

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recommended 18 private investment infrastructure REITs projects to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), with 14 projects already issued and a total fund amount of nearly 30 billion RMB [1][2] - The recent measures from the State Council aim to actively support more eligible private investment projects to issue REITs in the infrastructure sector, demonstrating a positive effect in various fields [1] - The NDRC plans to enhance collaboration with the CSRC to support more eligible private investment projects for issuance, thereby broadening financing channels for private enterprises and promoting a virtuous cycle of investment and financing [2] Summary by Categories REITs Projects - 14 out of 18 recommended private investment infrastructure REITs projects have been issued, raising nearly 30 billion RMB [1] - The first community commercial and agricultural market REITs projects are examples of private investment projects that have improved consumer infrastructure [1] - The first batch of data center REITs projects issued in August 2023 are also private investment projects, contributing to the innovation of financing mechanisms in new infrastructure sectors [1] Future Plans - The NDRC aims to push for the listing of new asset types and expand the market by increasing the number of mature asset type project applications [2] - A total of 105 infrastructure REITs projects have been recommended to the CSRC, with 83 projects issued across 10 industries and 18 asset types, raising a total of 207 billion RMB [2] - The expected total investment from these projects is over 1 trillion RMB, indicating significant potential for future growth in the sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively promoting the issuance of infrastructure REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) to enhance private investment in various sectors, with a focus on integrating the real economy with capital markets [1][2]. Group 1: Infrastructure REITs Development - Infrastructure REITs are seen as a vital mechanism for revitalizing existing infrastructure assets through public markets, facilitating the organic integration of the real economy and capital markets [1]. - Since the pilot program began in 2020, the NDRC has recommended a total of 105 projects to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), with 83 projects successfully listed, covering 10 industries and 18 asset types [1]. - The total amount raised through these funds is approximately 207 billion yuan, which is expected to drive new project investments exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1]. Group 2: Private Investment Projects - The NDRC has recommended 18 private investment projects, of which 14 have been listed, raising nearly 30 billion yuan [2]. - These private investment projects have set precedents in various fields, such as the first community commercial and agricultural market REITs, which have positively influenced the upgrade of consumer infrastructure [2]. - The first batch of data center REITs, also a private investment project, was launched in August this year, contributing to the innovation of financing mechanisms in the new infrastructure sector and supporting the development of the digital economy and artificial intelligence industries [2].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is entering a normalization phase for the issuance of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the infrastructure sector in 2024, with ongoing expansion efforts [1] Summary by Categories Infrastructure Investment - The NDRC has recommended a total of 105 projects to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), with 83 projects already issued and listed [1] - The recommended projects span 10 industries and 18 asset types, including toll roads, clean energy, urban heating, ecological protection, warehousing and logistics, industrial parks, data centers, rental housing, water conservancy, and consumer infrastructure [1] Fundraising and Investment Impact - The total amount raised from the issued funds is 207 billion yuan, which is expected to drive new project investments exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - Additionally, the NDRC has recommended 18 private investment projects to the CSRC, with 14 projects already issued, raising nearly 30 billion yuan [1]