Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a weakening US dollar index and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a convergence of interest rate differentials between China and the US [1][2] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate recently surpassed 7.12, marking a significant increase, while the onshore RMB middle rate has reached a nearly 10-month high [1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, particularly comments from Chairman Powell, has contributed to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, supporting non-USD currencies including the RMB [1][2] Group 2: Market Supply and Demand Factors - Despite seasonal increases in demand for foreign exchange due to corporate dividend payouts, the RMB has remained stable, with a slight increase in the settlement rate for enterprises and individuals in July [1] - A significant drop in demand for foreign exchange is expected after September, coinciding with a peak in RMB settlement in the fourth quarter, which will support a stronger RMB [1] Group 3: International Capital Flows - The trend of "de-dollarization" is becoming increasingly important, with Asian bond investors diversifying their investments away from USD assets, which is positively impacting the RMB [2] - The performance of emerging market equities this year is linked to international capital reallocating towards RMB assets, creating a positive feedback loop between the securities and foreign exchange markets [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Forward exchange rates indicate market optimism regarding the RMB's strength against the USD through the end of the year, reflecting expectations of continued appreciation [2] - The central bank's consistent policy of allowing market forces to determine exchange rates suggests that the RMB/USD exchange rate is likely to maintain a strong and stable trend in the near future, enhancing the international appeal of RMB assets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, driven by a weakening US dollar index and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate recently broke above 7.12, with the spot exchange rate strengthening and the RMB central parity rate reaching a nearly 10-month high [1] - Factors supporting the RMB's strength include seasonal demand for foreign exchange due to corporate dividend payouts, but actual market conditions show a stable exchange rate and an increase in the settlement rate in July [1][2] Group 2 - The article notes that international capital is increasingly diversifying away from US dollar assets, with a significant shift towards RMB assets, which is expected to positively impact both the securities and foreign exchange markets [2] - Forward exchange rates indicate market expectations for a continued strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar until the end of the year, reflecting a positive outlook [2] - The central bank's consistent exchange rate policy, which emphasizes market determination and a bottom-line thinking approach, suggests that the RMB/USD exchange rate is likely to maintain a strong trend in the near future [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar and its implications for the A-share market, suggesting a potential bullish trend driven by both internal and external factors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The yuan's appreciation is attributed to a combination of external factors, such as the Federal Reserve's potential policy adjustments, and internal factors, including proactive guidance from the People's Bank of China [2][3]. - The yuan's recent performance shows a "lagging" phenomenon, with a 1.2% increase in the yuan's middle rate against the dollar since January, while the dollar index has depreciated by approximately 10% [3]. Group 2: Stock Market Interaction - Historical data indicates a significant correlation between the yuan's exchange rate and the stock market, with the recent V-shaped rebound in A-shares occurring simultaneously with the yuan's appreciation [4][5]. - The strengthening yuan is expected to boost foreign investor confidence and improve the valuation of Chinese assets, particularly benefiting sectors like consumer goods and domestic demand [5][6]. Group 3: Capital Flow and Investment Trends - There is a noticeable trend of foreign capital increasing its allocation to Chinese equity assets, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [5]. - The expectation of the yuan returning to the 6 range, combined with effective exchange rate appreciation, could enhance the attractiveness of Chinese equity assets, leading to a comprehensive revaluation [5][6]. Group 4: Policy Considerations - The People's Bank of China is likely to maintain a cautious approach to controlling the pace of yuan appreciation to avoid negative impacts on the real economy and employment [6][7]. - Despite potential constraints on the yuan's appreciation path, a new round of asset revaluation in China may be underway, particularly for companies that can leverage both currency appreciation and industry breakthroughs [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has appreciated against the US dollar, with the central parity rate reported at 7.1385, marking an increase of 29 points and reaching the highest level since November 6, 2024 [1] Summary by Category - Currency Exchange Rate - The RMB/USD central parity rate is set at 7.1385, reflecting a 29-point increase [1] - This rate represents the highest value for the RMB against the USD since November 6, 2024 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The report constructs the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index by synthesizing the price states of four major asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities, and exchange rates) in the Chinese capital market using the diffusion index method. The index reflects the market's risk - off state, considering only the direction of asset price changes rather than the amplitude [1][11][12]. - The Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has an obvious negative correlation with the macro - economic fundamentals. Economic fundamentals change first, followed by changes in the risk - aversion state of the capital market [2]. - The change in the week - on - week increase or decrease of the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index leads the change of the fixed - base diffusion index, and it can be used to judge the possible inflection points of the overall index [38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Construction of Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index - **Definition**: The report divides the assets in the capital market into risk assets and risk - aversion assets. It uses the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index to represent stock prices, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate for bond prices, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index for commodity prices, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate for the exchange - rate market. The index is used to measure the market's risk pricing [11]. - **Compilation Method**: The report uses the diffusion index method to synthesize the price states of the four asset classes. It selects the weekly frequency for processing, starting from the first week of 2012 with an initial index value of 100. The rising index indicates a risk - off state in the capital market, and the falling index indicates a risk - on state [12]. 3.2 Relationship between Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index and Economic Fundamentals - **Relationship with Guoxin Macro - high - frequency Diffusion Index**: The Guoxin Macro - high - frequency Diffusion Index is a high - frequency tracking indicator for macro - economic growth. It uses seven high - frequency indicators to track representative industries weekly. Both the weekly and monthly comparisons show that the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has a negative correlation with the macro - economic fundamentals, and the macro - economic fundamentals lead the change of the risk - aversion index [22][23][30]. - **Relationship with GDP**: The Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has a weak correlation with the constant - price quarterly year - on - year GDP, and a certain negative correlation with the current - price quarterly year - on - year GDP and the quarterly year - on - year GDP deflator. However, there are periods of deviation, indicating that the economic fundamentals lead the change of the risk - aversion index [36][37]. 3.3 Technical Analysis of Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index - The week - on - week increase or decrease of the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index is a more sensitive indicator than the fixed - base index. By observing its change and the moving average, it is possible to judge the possible inflection points of the fixed - base index. The leading sensitivity is more significant on a monthly frequency [38][41].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate shows resilience and low volatility, with both onshore and offshore rates demonstrating a consistent upward trend against the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Onshore and Offshore RMB Performance - On June 30, the onshore RMB closed at 7.1656 against the US dollar, marking a rise of 34 basis points from the previous trading day and reaching the highest level since November 8, 2024 [1]. - In June, the onshore RMB appreciated by 0.41%, while in the second quarter, it cumulatively appreciated by 1.2%, and for the first half of the year, the overall appreciation was 1.86% [1]. - The offshore RMB also showed positive trends, with the exchange rate surpassing 7.16 on June 26, peaking at 7.1524, the highest since mid-November of the previous year [1]. Group 2: External Factors Influencing RMB - The US dollar index experienced a pullback during this period, with a decline of nearly 0.7% on June 26, providing a favorable external environment for the RMB [1]. - Year-to-date, the RMB's midpoint against the US dollar has appreciated by 0.37%, while the onshore spot rate has appreciated by nearly 1.8% [1]. Group 3: Market Stability and Expectations - The RMB exchange rate has exhibited characteristics of "low volatility and resilience," with the onshore and offshore rate differentials narrowing, indicating a stable "three-price unity" [2]. - The stability of the RMB reflects a growing consensus among market participants regarding exchange rate expectations, supported by the stability of China's economic fundamentals [2]. - The recent changes in the exchange rate market occurred amidst increased volatility in global financial markets, influenced by shifts in US Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2].