证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 森马服饰（002563.SZ） 优于大市 上半年收入增长 3%，费用率增加致利润承压 上半年收入增长 3%，费用率增加致利润承压。森马服饰 2025 年上半年实现 营业收入 61.49 亿元，同比+3.3%，归母净利润 3.25 亿元，同比-41.2%，扣 非净利润 2.96 亿元，同比-45.2%。毛利率同比提高 0.6pct 至 46.7%；销售/ 财务费用率分别同比+3.6/2.0pct，销售费用增加主要系线下新开门店增加 以及线上投流费用增加所致，财务费用增加主要系本期定期存款利息收入减 少所致；受费用率增加影响，净利率同比-4.1pct 至 5.2%。存货同比+10.1%， 存货周转天数同比+30 天至 187 天，主要由于销售未达预期。拟每 10 股派发 1.5 元中期现金红利，总额 4.04 亿元。 第二季度收入增长环比转正，毛利率提升。第二季度实现收入 30.70 亿元， 同比+9.0%，增速环比一季度由负转正；归母净利润 1.11 亿元，同比-46.3%， 扣非归母净利润 1.03 亿元，同比-49.4%。毛利率同比+0.9pct 至 46.4%；期 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 上半年收入、归母净利润同比增3%/下降41%，二季度收入好转但利润降幅加大 森马服饰发布2025年中报。公司上半年实现营业收入61.5亿元，同比增长3.3%，归母净利润3.3亿元， 同比下降41.2%，扣非净利润3亿元，同比下降45.2%，EPS（基本）为0.12元。公司拟每股派发现金红 利0.15元（含税），对应上半年派息比例为124%。 分季度来看，25Q1~Q2公司单季度收入分别同比-1.9%/+9%，归母净利润同比-38.1%/-46.3%。 点评： 上半年直营店净开店、收入同比增35%，线上收入持平、加盟收入小幅下降3% 分渠道来看：上半年线上/线下收入占比分别为44%/54%，收入分别同比持平/+4.9%。 ...

2025 年 8 月 26 日 公司研究 上半年收入稳健增长、利润下滑，保持积极分红 ——森马服饰（002563.SZ）2025 年中报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：5.55 元 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -2.36 | -13.98 | -5.12 | | 绝对 | 3.93 | -2.12 | 27.02 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 相关研报 Q3 业绩环比走弱、Q4 开局顺利，期待冬装 旺季提振——森马服饰（002563.SZ）2024 年三季报点评（2024-10-31） 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 26.9 ...

证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 服装家纺 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 年 | 月 22 | 08 | 日 | | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 5.55 | | | | | | 最 / 低 | 高 | 最 | | 7.48/4.34 | | | 内 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 14,952.20 | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 12,256.85 | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | 2,694.09 | | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 34.47 | | | | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade, encouraging companies to develop high-quality enterprises that can flexibly switch between domestic and international markets [1] Group 1: Integration of Domestic and Foreign Trade - The integration of domestic and foreign trade involves companies conducting both domestic and foreign trade activities, allowing for resource integration and operational autonomy [1] - Various stakeholders, including government departments, industry associations, and e-commerce platforms, are collaborating to help companies expand their trade channels and develop domestic markets [1] Group 2: Case Studies of Companies - Shandong Linyi Xindun Clothing Co., Ltd. successfully transitioned from foreign trade to domestic sales, achieving daily order volumes in the thousands through collaboration with JD.com [3][5] - Jiangxi Lanke Semiconductor Co., Ltd. and other companies are actively exploring domestic markets to alleviate inventory pressures caused by changes in international trade environments [2] - Qianlima Socks in Jiangsu has seen a 50% increase in domestic sales compared to the previous year by leveraging government support and certifications to enhance market credibility [7][9] Group 3: Government and Platform Support - The government and e-commerce platforms are implementing various measures, such as direct procurement and flow support, to assist foreign trade companies in expanding domestic sales channels [5][11] - JD.com launched a "200 billion support plan" to help foreign trade companies quickly enter the domestic market, showcasing a proactive approach to facilitate this transition [4] Group 4: Market Demand and Product Innovation - Companies are increasingly focusing on understanding market demand and innovating products to meet the diverse needs of domestic consumers [14][16] - The integration of production standards for both domestic and international markets allows companies to reduce switching costs and enhance operational efficiency [15] Group 5: Industry Collaboration and Events - Industry associations are organizing events and exhibitions to enhance visibility and facilitate connections between domestic and foreign markets, contributing to the overall growth of the sector [14][17] - The establishment of certifications like "Three Same" enhances product credibility, enabling companies to gain market acceptance more effectively [9]

Group 1 - The core achievement of Meibang includes testing the "5.0 new retail" business model in Changsha, achieving over 100 million GMV in 40 days, and opening new stores in Wuhan, Shanghai, and Yunnan, receiving positive feedback from consumers nationwide [1] - Meibang's 2024 annual performance report shows total revenue of 681 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 49.79%, and a net loss of 195 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 31.74 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a dramatic drop of approximately 714% [2] - The founder Zhou Chengjian's return to leadership in early 2024 is marked by a push for reform and a focus on live streaming to revitalize the brand [3] Group 2 - Meibang's transformation strategy, termed "grabbing birds," aims to position its products as "affordable luxury" in the outdoor market, targeting a broader consumer base through competitive pricing and extensive offline networks [9][10] - The "5.0 new retail" model integrates various retail methods, including traditional retail, search e-commerce, social e-commerce, and content e-commerce, to enhance consumer experience without increasing costs [10] - Despite the ambitious transformation, Meibang faced significant challenges, including the loss of over 200 franchisees who opted to partner with competitors, reflecting skepticism about the shift from casual wear to outdoor fashion [11] Group 3 - The outdoor functional clothing sector, led by brands like Arc'teryx, has shown strong growth, with a reported revenue increase of 36% to 2.194 billion USD and a same-store sales growth of 28% [13] - The overall apparel industry in China is experiencing low demand, with online retail sales of clothing declining by 0.6% year-on-year in early 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [12][14] - Meibang's aggressive expansion plans include opening over 1,000 community lifestyle stores within the next 1,000 days, reflecting a shift in strategy to adapt to market conditions [15]

Core Insights - In 2024, the company reported disappointing financial results, with revenue of 681 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 49.8%, and a net loss of 195 million yuan, a staggering year-on-year decrease of 715.4% [1] - The company faces multiple challenges, including brand aging, intensified market competition, and obstacles in strategic transformation, necessitating urgent brand upgrades and channel adjustments to find new growth points [1] Group 1: Core Business Weaknesses - The core business, particularly the casual wear segment, is suffering from brand aging and intensified market competition [2] - The company's brand positioning has become unclear, failing to keep pace with rapidly changing consumer preferences, leading to a loss of market share as some franchisees shift to other brands [2] - The gross margin is continuously declining due to the loss of pricing strategy and product differentiation, forcing the company to resort to discount promotions, which further erodes profitability [2] Group 2: Cash Flow Crisis and Strategic Challenges - The company is experiencing a persistent negative cash flow, with the net cash flow from operating activities being negative and the gap widening year-on-year, indicating poor sales collection efficiency [3] - Franchisee attrition and heavy short-term debt pressure are significant risks, with the company's debt-to-asset ratio far exceeding the industry average, raising concerns about financial safety [3] - Despite attempts to implement a "5.0 new retail" model, the high costs associated with promoting this new model hinder its short-term effectiveness [3] Group 3: Path to Recovery - To turn around its fortunes, the company must focus on product innovation through increased R&D investment to enhance product value [4] - Strengthening franchisee cooperation and optimizing channel structure are essential for improving business performance [4] - A deepened brand upgrade and a redefined brand positioning are crucial to meet the dual demands of young consumers for fashion and quality [4]

Summary of Key Points Overall Market Performance - The performance of the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices over the past year shows a significant decline, with the CSI 300 down by 32% and the ChiNext down by 16% [1]. Industry Performance - The top five performing industries yesterday included textiles and apparel (+1.448%), beauty and personal care (+1.014%), telecommunications (+0.971%), banking (+0.897%), and diversified industries (+0.742%) [1]. - Conversely, the bottom five performing industries were defense and military (-1.17%), non-ferrous metals (-0.866%), utilities (-0.801%), steel (-0.580%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.537%) [1]. Communication Industry - The satellite internet construction in China is gradually taking shape, with significant developments in the commercial aerospace industry [10]. - On April 1, 2025, China successfully launched a satellite for internet technology testing, marking a step towards the integration of satellite and terrestrial networks [12]. - The "Thousand Sails Constellation" plan aims to deploy 648 satellites by the end of 2025 and 1,296 satellites globally by 2027, with a long-term goal of 15,000 satellites by 2030 [13]. Coal Mining Industry - China Jushi (600176.SH) reported a significant increase in Q4 2024 performance, with revenue reaching 42.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.49% [16]. - The company’s glass fiber yarn sales reached a record high of 3.025 million tons in 2024, driven by structural optimization and market expansion [17]. Real Estate and Construction Industry - China Overseas Development (00688.HK) ranked first in equity sales and land acquisition, with a steady growth in commercial income [21]. - The company reported a revenue of 1,851.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, while its equity sales amounted to 3,107 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% [22][23]. Food and Beverage Industry - China Feihe (06186.HK) achieved a revenue of 20.749 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a proposed dividend of 0.3264 HKD per share [27]. - The company’s ultra-high-end product series continues to drive growth, with a focus on expanding its market share in the infant formula sector [28]. Chemical Industry - Shengquan Group (605589.SH) reported a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.87% [37]. - The company is expanding its high-frequency and high-speed resin varieties, indicating a robust growth trajectory [38]. Light Industry - Jiayi Co., Ltd. (301004.SZ) achieved a revenue of 2.836 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%, supported by strong customer relationships [31]. - The company’s overseas revenue growth is a significant driver of its overall performance [32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][40]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 7.1% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 14.626 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.137 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.4% increase [1][4]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue increase of 9.8% year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 32.1% [2][4]. - The children's clothing segment performed particularly well, with revenue of 10.268 billion yuan, a 9.6% increase, and a gross margin improvement [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 14.626 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.137 billion yuan and a gross margin of 43.8% [1][5]. - The fourth quarter revenue was 5.227 billion yuan, with a net profit of 382 million yuan, marking significant growth compared to the previous year [2][5]. - The company maintained a healthy inventory turnover, reducing turnover days by 19 days to 140 days [1][4]. Revenue Breakdown - By category, children's clothing accounted for 70.2% of total revenue, while casual wear contributed 41.90 billion yuan [3][4]. - Online sales reached 6.672 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.1% increase, while direct sales and franchise channels also showed positive growth [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its store network, with expectations for revenue growth to remain strong in 2025 [4][36]. - The estimated net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.213 billion yuan, 1.295 billion yuan, and 1.385 billion yuan, respectively, indicating steady growth [4][5]. - The reasonable valuation range for the company has been adjusted to 7.2-7.7 yuan, reflecting an increase in valuation levels due to favorable consumption policies [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 14.63 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% increase [1]. - The children's clothing segment is projected to grow by 10% in revenue, while the adult clothing segment shows stable performance [3]. - The company is enhancing its product functionality and fabric research, focusing on consumer needs to drive sales and improve efficiency [3]. - E-commerce revenue is expected to increase by 7.1% to 6.67 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 2.4 percentage points [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a gross margin of 43.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [1]. - The net profit margin is projected to decrease by 0.4 percentage points to 7.8% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 940 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 83% and a dividend yield of 5% [1]. - The end-of-year inventory is expected to increase by 27% to 3.48 billion yuan, primarily due to an increase in winter merchandise [5]. Business Segment Performance - The children's clothing business is expected to generate 10% revenue growth, reaching 10.27 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 47.3% [3]. - The leisure clothing segment is projected to see a modest revenue increase of 0.4% to 4.19 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 35.5% [3]. - The company is optimizing its store image and product quality, with over 500 "New Semir" stores expected by the end of 2024 [3]. Channel Development - The company has successfully opened nearly 400 new stores in 2024, with over 1,400 new openings planned [4]. - Direct sales and franchise revenue are expected to grow by 12.6% and 5.1%, respectively, with gross margins of 66.1% and 36.2% [4]. - The company is enhancing its online and offline channel integration, leading to improved e-commerce performance [4].