证券研究报告 | 2025年10月10日 纺织服装 10 月投资策略 优于大市 9 月越南纺服出口同比转正，羊毛价格上涨显著 行情回顾：9 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势弱于大盘，其中纺织制造表现优于品 牌服饰，截至 10/9 日，分别+0.1%/-1.6%；港股纺服指数弱于大盘，9 月以 来板块整体下跌。重点关注公司中 9 月以来涨幅领先的包括：新澳股份 (16.9%)/丰泰企业(14.9%)/阿迪达斯(11.6%)/儒鸿(10.8%)/申洲国际 (8.6%)/报喜鸟(7.6%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：8 月服装社零同比增长 3.1%，增速环比提升，较 上月提速 1.3 百分点。9 月今年因较去年缺少中秋假期，同时气温仍然较热， 我们预计 9 月服装销售较 7-8 月有一定压力；去年十一假期受促销费政策带 动基数较高，今年受气温、以及出行客流增加分流影响，预计服饰销售存在 压力。2）电商：8 月电商户外品类增长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲 服饰/家纺/个护分别同比-1%/+22%/ -1%/-7%/-1%。运动服饰中，增速领先 的品牌包括迪桑特(51%)、露露乐蒙(35%)；户外品牌中，凯乐石(113 ...

行情回顾：9 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势弱于大盘，其中纺织制造表现优于品 牌服饰，截至 10/9 日，分别+0.1%/-1.6%；港股纺服指数弱于大盘，9 月以 来板块整体下跌。重点关注公司中 9 月以来涨幅领先的包括：新澳股份 (16.9%)/丰泰企业(14.9%)/阿迪达斯(11.6%)/儒鸿(10.8%)/申洲国际 (8.6%)/报喜鸟(7.6%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：8 月服装社零同比增长 3.1%，增速环比提升，较 上月提速 1.3 百分点。9 月今年因较去年缺少中秋假期，同时气温仍然较热， 我们预计 9 月服装销售较 7-8 月有一定压力；去年十一假期受促销费政策带 动基数较高，今年受气温、以及出行客流增加分流影响，预计服饰销售存在 压力。2）电商：8 月电商户外品类增长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲 服饰/家纺/个护分别同比-1%/+22%/ -1%/-7%/-1%。运动服饰中，增速领先 的品牌包括迪桑特(51%)、露露乐蒙(35%)；户外品牌中，凯乐石(113%)、蕉 下(79%)、可隆(69%)较其他品牌增长强劲；休闲服饰中，江南布衣(65%)保 持快速增长，主要靠京东、天猫平台带 ...

Core Insights - Semir Apparel is experiencing a "revenue growth without profit increase" scenario, with a slight revenue increase but a significant decline in net profit, indicating operational challenges [1][2] - The company's heavy reliance on children's clothing as a primary revenue source poses sustainability risks, especially as the main leisurewear brand faces downward pressure [1][3] Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, Semir Apparel achieved a revenue of 6.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.26%, while net profit fell to 325 million yuan, a decline of 41.17% [1][2] - The increase in sales expenses, driven by efforts to expand direct sales channels and enhance online marketing, has significantly eroded profit margins [2] Inventory Management and Business Structure - The company faces challenges in inventory management, with a slowdown in inventory turnover and increased inventory levels indicating a mismatch between sales speed and procurement [3] - The dependency on the children's clothing segment has risen, contributing approximately 70% of total revenue, while the leisurewear segment's share has decreased [3] - High online return rates, approaching 50%, are impacting user experience and operational efficiency [3] Strategic Responses - Semir Apparel is seeking breakthroughs through channel optimization and refined operations, with plans to increase investment in direct sales channels and enhance online-offline integration [3] - The company aims to strengthen cost control in the second half of the year while balancing short-term performance with long-term strategic investments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Huang Jianzhong, the deputy general manager of Semir Apparel, due to reaching the legal retirement age, and the company's performance in the first half of the year, highlighting both revenue growth and profit decline [2][3]. Group 1: Management Changes - Huang Jianzhong has submitted a written application for resignation as deputy general manager, effective upon delivery to the board of directors [2]. - Following his resignation, Semir Apparel will rehire him as a consultant [2]. - As of the announcement date, Huang holds 10,000 shares in Semir Apparel, which will be managed according to relevant regulations [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Semir Apparel, established in 2002, focuses on casual and children's clothing, with major brands including Semir for adults and Balabala for children [2]. - In the first half of the year, Semir Apparel achieved a revenue of 6.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.26%, while net profit was 325 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.17% [2]. Group 3: Sales Performance - Revenue from casual clothing was 1.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.98%, while revenue from children's clothing was 4.313 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.97% [2]. - The company primarily operates through a franchise model, supplemented by direct sales and joint ventures [2]. - In the first half of the year, the number of franchise stores was 7,194, with a net closure of 66 stores; direct stores numbered 999, with a net increase of 19 stores; joint venture stores totaled 43, with a net closure of 42 stores [2]. Group 4: Revenue Sources - Although Semir Apparel has diversified its sales model to include online and offline channels, the franchise model remains the main source of revenue [3]. - Revenue from the franchise model was 2.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.80%, indicating a potential drag on overall performance [3].

Core Viewpoint - Semir Apparel (002563.SZ) reported a "revenue increase but profit decline" in its recent semi-annual report, with revenue of 6.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.26%, while net profit dropped significantly by 41.17% to 325 million yuan, primarily due to increased sales and management expenses [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2023, Semir's revenue was 3.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.93%, while Q2 revenue rebounded to 3.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.04%. However, net profit for both quarters declined by 38.12% and 46.29% respectively [3]. - Sales expenses increased by 17.67% to 1.823 billion yuan, with a sales expense ratio rising by 3.63 percentage points to 29.65%. Management expenses grew by 9.1% to 314 million yuan, with a management expense ratio of 5.11% [3][4]. - Asset impairment losses totaled 186 million yuan, primarily due to inventory write-downs and contract performance cost impairments, contributing to the overall pressure on the company's performance [5][6]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Position - 2023 marks a turning point for Semir's business recovery, with the introduction of the "New Semir" concept aimed at enhancing brand positioning and customer experience [7]. - The company experienced a net increase of 388 stores in 2024, reaching a total of 8,325 stores, although the growth rate of the store network showed signs of slowing in the first half of the year [7][8]. - The company’s franchise model remains a significant revenue source, contributing 37.96% of total revenue, but the growth rate declined by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the franchise channel [9]. Group 3: Inventory and Product Performance - The revenue from casual apparel decreased by 4.98%, while children's apparel revenue increased by 5.97% to 4.313 billion yuan, accounting for 70% of total revenue [11]. - The inventory balance increased by 10.1%, with inventory turnover days rising by 30 days to 187 days, attributed to lower-than-expected sales [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Meibang Fashion and the efforts of its chairman, Zhou Chengjian, to revitalize the brand through personal branding and live streaming, despite the company's declining performance over the years [3][10]. Group 1: Brand Strategy - Zhou Chengjian, the chairman of Meibang Fashion, has taken to live streaming to engage with consumers directly, reflecting a shift in brand communication strategies [3][6]. - The company previously collaborated with celebrities for promotions, but Zhou found these efforts to be ineffective, leading him to focus on building a personal brand instead [4][5]. - Zhou's live streaming sessions have garnered significant attention, with his first session attracting over 3.78 million views and generating a GMV of over 150 million yuan [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Meibang Fashion has experienced a dramatic decline in revenue, from 6.52 billion yuan in 2016 to just 1.36 billion yuan in 2023, marking a nearly 80% drop [7]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 681 million yuan, a nearly 50% decrease year-on-year, with a net loss of nearly 200 million yuan [9]. - The latest half-year report for 2025 shows revenue of only 227 million yuan, a 45.23% decline compared to the previous year, and a net profit drop of 87.07% [9]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - Meibang Fashion is currently facing intense competition in the apparel market, particularly in the outdoor segment, which has seen a surge in consumer interest [10]. - Zhou has acknowledged the challenges of the fashion industry, including inventory pressures and the need for a more agile supply chain to respond to rapidly changing trends [7][8]. - The company is attempting to pivot towards the outdoor apparel market, which is perceived to have a larger and more engaged consumer base [9].

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience in mid-term performance, with the sports segment leading apparel consumption [1][12] - In August, the A-share textile and apparel sector slightly underperformed the broader market, but has shown stable performance since September, with brand apparel outperforming textile manufacturing [1][12] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in July grew by 1.8% year-on-year, with a slight deceleration compared to the previous month [1] - E-commerce growth in July rebounded significantly, with outdoor sports leading the way; growth rates for various segments included sports apparel at +11%, outdoor apparel at +26%, and home textiles at +10% [1] - Notable brand performances included Decathlon with +63%, Puma with +41%, and Lululemon with +39% in sports apparel; outdoor brands like Kailas and Arc'teryx also showed strong growth [1] Textile Manufacturing Insights - In August, Vietnam's textile exports fell by 4.5% year-on-year, while China's textile exports improved slightly with a growth rate of 1.4% [2] - The export performance of apparel and footwear from China was poor, with declines of 10.1% and 17.1% respectively [2] - The price of cotton showed slight fluctuations in August, with a small decline noted in September [2] Sector Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, textile manufacturing revenue grew by 7.8% year-on-year, while the apparel and home textile sector faced a decline of 6.4% [3] - The gross margin for the textile manufacturing sector remained stable at 19.4%, while the apparel and home textile sector's gross margin increased slightly to 46.1% [3] - Key players in the apparel sector, such as Anta and Xtep, maintained steady growth in revenue and profit, while non-sports apparel faced significant challenges [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued leaders with strong fundamentals in brand apparel, particularly in the sports segment, with recommendations for Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Li Ning [6] - In textile manufacturing, recommend companies with significant rebound potential and strong fundamentals, such as Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights the recovery of revenue and net profit for Guobo Electronics in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 7.2 billion yuan, up 18.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.44 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [6][7] - Dameng Data, a leading domestic database company, reported a significant increase in net profit margin, achieving a revenue of 5.23 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 48.65%, and a net profit of 2.05 billion yuan, up 98.36% year-on-year [9][10] - Zhaowei Electromechanical reported a revenue of 7.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year [16] - Hengli Hydraulic achieved a revenue of 51.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, and a net profit of 14.3 billion yuan, up 11.0% year-on-year [21][22] - The report indicates that the electric tool and cross-border e-commerce sectors are significant growth drivers for Juxing Technology, with a revenue increase of 56.03% in the electric tool segment [24][26] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Dongwu Securities, with a revenue of 44.28 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.63%, and a net profit of 19.32 billion yuan, up 65.76% year-on-year [28][29] - Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group reported a revenue of 57.27 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.62%, with a net profit of 2.90 billion yuan, up 9.99% year-on-year [32][33] - The report notes that Beifang Navigation experienced a significant revenue increase of 481.19% year-on-year, reaching 17.03 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 1.16 billion yuan, up 256.59% year-on-year [37][38] - The textile and apparel sector, represented by Shenzhou International, achieved a revenue of 149.66 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, with a net profit of 31.77 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year [41][42]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady revenue growth in Q2 2025, but rising expense ratios have led to short-term profit pressure. A mid-term dividend was announced with a high payout ratio of 124%, indicating strong dividend yield performance [1][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company generated revenue of 6.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders was 325 million yuan, down 41.2% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 296 million yuan, down 45.2% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue reached 3.07 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year, but net profit fell to 110 million yuan, down 46.3% year-on-year [2][3]. Expense Analysis - In Q2 2025, revenue increased by 9% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 0.9 percentage points. However, due to increased offline store openings and online marketing expenses, the sales expense ratio rose by 3.0 percentage points. Additionally, financial expense ratios increased by 2.7 percentage points, leading to a total expense pressure increase of 5.2 percentage points, which contributed to a decline in net profit margin by 3.8 percentage points [3]. Brand and Channel Performance - For H1 2025, revenue from casual wear and children's wear was 1.723 billion yuan and 4.313 billion yuan, respectively, with casual wear down 5.0% and children's wear up 6.0% year-on-year. The number of stores for casual wear and children's wear decreased by 11 and 78, respectively. In terms of sales channels, online revenue was down 0.1%, while direct sales increased by 34.8%, and franchise and joint venture revenues decreased by 2.8% and 25.3%, respectively [3]. Dividend Announcement - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a high payout ratio of 124%. The dividend yield is considered excellent. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the company anticipates improved fundamentals due to steady revenue growth and a low base effect in Q3 2024 [4].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.966 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.177 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year [1] - The board proposed an interim dividend of 1.38 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 60% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue growth was primarily driven by an increase in sales volume, although the profit growth lagged behind revenue growth due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in effective tax rate [1] - The company achieved revenue from various product segments: sportswear (10.129 billion yuan, +9.9%), casual wear (3.792 billion yuan, +37.4%), underwear (0.940 billion yuan, +4.1%), and other knitted products (0.105 billion yuan, +6.0%) [1] Market Performance - Domestic market revenue saw a slight decline, while overseas markets experienced rapid growth: mainland China (-2.1%), EU (+19.9%), USA (+35.8%), Japan (+18.1%), and other regions (+18.7%) [2] - The company increased its procurement share from four core clients, which accounted for 82.1% of total revenue, with significant contributions from Uniqlo (4.333 billion yuan, +27.4%), Nike (3.436 billion yuan, +6.0%), Adidas (2.992 billion yuan, +28.2%), and Puma (1.532 billion yuan, +14.7%) [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 27.1% due to increased employee costs, while the total expense ratio fell by 0.27 percentage points to 9.13% [3] - The company reported a net cash balance of 13.371 billion yuan as of the end of H1 2025, with inventory increasing by 4.4% to 6.990 billion yuan and inventory turnover days decreasing by 12 days to 115 days [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its diversified product strategy and enhanced customer service capabilities, with projected earnings per share of 4.40, 4.92, and 5.45 yuan for 2025-2027 [4] - The current closing price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3, 11.0, and 9.9 for the years 2025-2027, maintaining a "Buy-A" rating [4]