证券研究报告 | 2025年10月10日 纺织服装 10 月投资策略 优于大市 9 月越南纺服出口同比转正，羊毛价格上涨显著 行情回顾：9 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势弱于大盘，其中纺织制造表现优于品 牌服饰，截至 10/9 日，分别+0.1%/-1.6%；港股纺服指数弱于大盘，9 月以 来板块整体下跌。重点关注公司中 9 月以来涨幅领先的包括：新澳股份 (16.9%)/丰泰企业(14.9%)/阿迪达斯(11.6%)/儒鸿(10.8%)/申洲国际 (8.6%)/报喜鸟(7.6%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：8 月服装社零同比增长 3.1%，增速环比提升，较 上月提速 1.3 百分点。9 月今年因较去年缺少中秋假期，同时气温仍然较热， 我们预计 9 月服装销售较 7-8 月有一定压力；去年十一假期受促销费政策带 动基数较高，今年受气温、以及出行客流增加分流影响，预计服饰销售存在 压力。2）电商：8 月电商户外品类增长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲 服饰/家纺/个护分别同比-1%/+22%/ -1%/-7%/-1%。运动服饰中，增速领先 的品牌包括迪桑特(51%)、露露乐蒙(35%)；户外品牌中，凯乐石(113 ...

行情回顾：9 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势弱于大盘，其中纺织制造表现优于品 牌服饰，截至 10/9 日，分别+0.1%/-1.6%；港股纺服指数弱于大盘，9 月以 来板块整体下跌。重点关注公司中 9 月以来涨幅领先的包括：新澳股份 (16.9%)/丰泰企业(14.9%)/阿迪达斯(11.6%)/儒鸿(10.8%)/申洲国际 (8.6%)/报喜鸟(7.6%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：8 月服装社零同比增长 3.1%，增速环比提升，较 上月提速 1.3 百分点。9 月今年因较去年缺少中秋假期，同时气温仍然较热， 我们预计 9 月服装销售较 7-8 月有一定压力；去年十一假期受促销费政策带 动基数较高，今年受气温、以及出行客流增加分流影响，预计服饰销售存在 压力。2）电商：8 月电商户外品类增长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲 服饰/家纺/个护分别同比-1%/+22%/ -1%/-7%/-1%。运动服饰中，增速领先 的品牌包括迪桑特(51%)、露露乐蒙(35%)；户外品牌中，凯乐石(113%)、蕉 下(79%)、可隆(69%)较其他品牌增长强劲；休闲服饰中，江南布衣(65%)保 持快速增长，主要靠京东、天猫平台带 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Arc'teryx has faced a significant brand marketing disaster by promoting its products in a controversial manner, particularly by using fireworks in a sensitive environment like the Himalayas at an altitude of 5,500 meters [1] Group 1 - Arc'teryx has successfully marketed niche outdoor apparel into a must-have item for the middle class [1] - The recent marketing stunt has been described as an epic failure, raising questions about the company's judgment [1] - The incident highlights the potential pitfalls of aggressive marketing strategies in sensitive locations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports is facing a significant public relations crisis due to the "fireworks incident" involving its outdoor brand Arc'teryx, which has led to a decline in consumer trust and a drop in stock price, highlighting the challenges of balancing scale and brand values in a competitive outdoor market [1][9][10]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Acquisitions - Anta Sports has been actively building an outdoor brand empire through acquisitions, including the full acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for $290 million and the purchase of Amer Sports for €4.6 billion, which includes brands like Arc'teryx and Salomon [4][5]. - The company aims to establish a multi-brand universe with a focus on global expansion, adhering to a "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy [4][5]. - In 2024, Anta's revenue is projected to exceed 70.826 billion yuan, marking a 13.6% year-on-year growth, making it the leading sports market player in China [5]. Group 2: Brand Performance and Marketing - Amer Sports, under Anta's ownership, reported a 23.46% revenue increase to $2.708 billion in the first half of 2025, with a net profit surge of 3047.06% [6]. - The marketing strategies employed by Anta have successfully positioned brands like Descente and Salomon as fashionable choices among middle-class consumers, expanding their market reach [7][8]. - The revenue from all other brands, including Descente and Kolon, reached 7.412 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 61.1% increase [7]. Group 3: Crisis and Brand Value - The fireworks incident has raised concerns about the dilution of Arc'teryx's brand values, which traditionally emphasize respect for nature and environmental sustainability [9][10]. - Experts suggest that the incident serves as a warning for Anta to protect and uphold the core values of its brands while pursuing aggressive growth strategies [10][11]. - The marketing approach that focuses on trendy labels and short-term gains may risk alienating core outdoor enthusiasts and undermine the long-term value of the brands [11].

Group 1 - The incident involving Arc'teryx's sponsorship of artist Cai Guoqiang's fireworks display in Tibet has raised concerns about potential ecological harm, prompting local authorities to investigate the matter [1] - Arc'teryx issued an apology, acknowledging the misalignment between their intentions and the execution of the project, and committed to a thorough environmental impact assessment with third-party experts [1] - The parent company Amer Sports, acquired by Anta Sports, has seen significant growth, with a market capitalization exceeding $20 billion and a strong performance in the Greater China region [2] Group 2 - Amer Sports reported a revenue of $2.709 billion for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 23.5%, and Greater China revenue grew by 42.4% to $856 million [2] - Anta Sports also achieved a record revenue of RMB 38.54 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 14.3% increase, surpassing market expectations [2] - Anta's acquisition strategy focuses on brands with strong value and potential, aiming for effective management and collaboration to enhance market competitiveness [3]

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience in mid-term performance, with the sports segment leading apparel consumption [1][12] - In August, the A-share textile and apparel sector slightly underperformed the broader market, but has shown stable performance since September, with brand apparel outperforming textile manufacturing [1][12] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in July grew by 1.8% year-on-year, with a slight deceleration compared to the previous month [1] - E-commerce growth in July rebounded significantly, with outdoor sports leading the way; growth rates for various segments included sports apparel at +11%, outdoor apparel at +26%, and home textiles at +10% [1] - Notable brand performances included Decathlon with +63%, Puma with +41%, and Lululemon with +39% in sports apparel; outdoor brands like Kailas and Arc'teryx also showed strong growth [1] Textile Manufacturing Insights - In August, Vietnam's textile exports fell by 4.5% year-on-year, while China's textile exports improved slightly with a growth rate of 1.4% [2] - The export performance of apparel and footwear from China was poor, with declines of 10.1% and 17.1% respectively [2] - The price of cotton showed slight fluctuations in August, with a small decline noted in September [2] Sector Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, textile manufacturing revenue grew by 7.8% year-on-year, while the apparel and home textile sector faced a decline of 6.4% [3] - The gross margin for the textile manufacturing sector remained stable at 19.4%, while the apparel and home textile sector's gross margin increased slightly to 46.1% [3] - Key players in the apparel sector, such as Anta and Xtep, maintained steady growth in revenue and profit, while non-sports apparel faced significant challenges [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued leaders with strong fundamentals in brand apparel, particularly in the sports segment, with recommendations for Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Li Ning [6] - In textile manufacturing, recommend companies with significant rebound potential and strong fundamentals, such as Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [6]

Core Viewpoint - The outdoor sports industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a strong recovery observed from 2022 to 2023, driven by increased investment in outdoor equipment and event services, although the market is still in its early stages [1][2][4]. Industry Growth - The number of newly registered outdoor sports-related companies increased by 103.5% in 2023, with over 55,000 new registrations [3]. - The number of newly registered outdoor sports facilities also saw a rise of 96.64%, totaling 56,100 new companies [3]. - Financing events in the outdoor sports sector accounted for 30.8% of the total sports industry financing events in the first half of 2023, indicating a positive outlook from social capital [3]. Sales Performance - Decathlon reported a nearly 20% year-on-year increase in sales for outdoor categories such as hiking, camping, and skiing during September and October [2]. - The outdoor apparel sector, particularly jackets, has shown significant growth, with a notable increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Online searches for "outdoor hiking" surged by 370% since September, while sales of fishing gear and self-driving camping equipment rose by 153% and 167%, respectively [2]. Investment and R&D - Companies like Toray and Decathlon are increasing their R&D investments, with Toray reporting a 34.51% increase in 2022 and a further 44.55% increase in Q1 2023 [3]. - Decathlon plans to collaborate with high-quality ski resorts to promote winter sports activities [3]. Market Characteristics - The outdoor sports market is expanding rapidly, with diverse and personalized consumer demands emerging, particularly in footwear and apparel [4]. - There is a noticeable trend towards smart and service-oriented products in the outdoor equipment market [4]. Policy Support - The Chinese government has introduced a plan to boost the outdoor sports industry, aiming for a total market size of 3 trillion yuan by 2025 [5]. - The establishment of standards for outdoor sports is progressing, with 11 national standards for ice and snow sports approved this year [5]. Consumer Trends - There is a growing interest in outdoor sports among consumers, driven by demands for quality and upgraded experiences [6]. - However, the high-end market remains dominated by international brands, indicating a need for domestic brand development [6].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The outdoor apparel industry in China is currently a market worth over 100 billion, while the international market reaches a scale of 1 trillion. The annual growth rate of the industry is between 10% to 15%, with some optimistic forecasts reaching 20% [2][12]. Company Performance - Amazon's brands in China are performing strongly, with projected sales of over 5 billion USD for the year 2024. The Chinese market accounts for over 30% of global sales, and if overseas purchases by Chinese consumers are included, it represents 50% of the group's sales [1][4]. - Arc'teryx holds a market share of 60% to 70%, while Salomon and Wilson each account for around 40% [4]. Marketing Strategies and Channels - The outdoor apparel industry primarily utilizes three marketing channels: e-commerce, direct retail, and wholesale. Amazon relies heavily on retail and wholesale, but the DTC model is gaining importance [5]. - Brands are adopting a strategy of closing smaller stores while opening larger ones, aiming for luxury and high-end positioning [5]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the domestic outdoor apparel market is intense, with brands needing to shift from pure outdoor categories to more fashionable offerings. Emerging brands like Boshihe are gaining traction in the mid-to-low-end market [2][12]. - Salomon is aggressively expanding its flagship stores in first- and second-tier cities, contrasting with Arc'teryx's focus on enhancing single-store efficiency and high-end positioning [6][11]. Supply Chain Advantages - Supply chain barriers are crucial for competitive advantage. Arc'teryx's long-term partnership with Gore-Tex provides it with priority access to the latest products, while Salomon reduces costs through outsourcing production [9][10]. - The integration of resources within Anta Group helps optimize operations for both Arc'teryx and Salomon [10]. Future Growth and Strategies - Arc'teryx aims for a doubling of growth by 2030, transitioning to a normal growth state post-2025. Salomon, while growing rapidly, faces higher risks [3][27]. - Wilson's rapid rise is attributed to the surge in tennis popularity, with plans to open over 10 stores by 2025 or 2026 [8][7]. Market Dynamics - The market is increasingly segmented, with the top 50% dominated by large brands and the remaining 20% to 30% occupied by numerous small emerging brands, which have the potential to be absorbed by faster-growing brands [20]. - The North American market shows a strong growth in DTC channels, although hotel channels remain the primary driver in absolute terms [30]. Conclusion - The outdoor apparel industry in China is poised for significant growth, driven by strong brand performances, strategic marketing shifts, and competitive supply chain advantages. Brands must adapt to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics to maintain and enhance their market positions [12][25].

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the supply chain is crucial for the success of companies going global, and enhancing supply chain resilience has become a new engine for growth [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Chain Challenges - Global supply chain instability is increasingly affecting cross-border businesses, making timely delivery to consumers a significant challenge [2]. - Companies like PHOMEMO and Giant Star Technology have experienced operational difficulties due to logistics issues, leading to increased costs and unstable delivery times [4][9]. - The traditional logistics network is inadequate for the demands of cross-border e-commerce, necessitating an integrated smart logistics network for optimal fulfillment [1]. Group 2: Success Stories - PHOMEMO improved its conversion rate from 10% to 20% and doubled its revenue by utilizing Amazon's FBA logistics service, which provided better delivery time visibility to consumers [4][6]. - Giant Star Technology's revenue grew from 6.63 billion yuan in 2019 to 14.795 billion yuan in 2024, largely due to brand building and resilient supply chain capabilities [9]. - Happy Jump leveraged Amazon's logistics network to enter new markets, achieving same-day delivery in major Australian cities, which provided a competitive advantage [12]. Group 3: Logistics Efficiency - The last-mile delivery is critical in the supply chain, and Amazon's FBA service excels in this area, achieving over 96% next-day delivery efficiency in the U.S. market [13]. - Companies like倍思奇 have successfully integrated AGL, AWD, and FBA services to enhance logistics efficiency and reduce costs [15]. - TAILI utilized Amazon's FBA and AWD services to manage inventory effectively, resulting in significant cost reductions and explosive growth in new markets [24]. Group 4: Strategies for New Entrants - New companies entering the global market should focus on product testing and utilize Amazon's logistics tools to ensure timely delivery and positive consumer feedback [28][31]. - It is recommended to prioritize FBA over FBM for shipping to enhance conversion rates and customer satisfaction [33][34]. - Companies should prepare for peak sales seasons by accurately forecasting demand and managing inventory to avoid stockouts or excess inventory [21][19]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Building a resilient supply chain is essential for companies to navigate uncertainties and achieve sustainable growth in international markets [36]. - Companies are encouraged to collaborate with third-party logistics providers like Amazon to optimize operational costs and improve service quality [27].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the outdoor apparel sector, particularly with the anticipated IPO of Berghaus, which is expected to boost market sentiment [10][19]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector showed strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, with domestic brands gaining momentum and top brands maintaining a stable market position [1]. - Berghaus, a leading high-performance outdoor apparel brand, reported a revenue of 1.766 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 94.5% year-on-year increase, with a three-year CAGR of 116% [2][11]. - The report highlights the growth of domestic beauty brands during the 618 festival, with significant sales increases across various platforms [1][2]. Industry Data Tracking - Retail sales in May showed a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending, aided by favorable weather and the early 618 promotions [20][23]. - The report tracks various industry segments, indicating a stable upward trend in outdoor sports, beauty, and medical aesthetics sectors, while other segments like textile raw materials are under slight pressure [3]. Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, the report recommends brands like Hailan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and has strong profitability potential [4][31]. - In the beauty sector, it suggests focusing on companies like Juzhi Biotechnology and Jinbo Biotechnology, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming periods [4][31]. Market Review and News - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector experienced a decline of 5.12% in the recent week, with specific companies like Li Ning and Fengzhu Textile showing positive performance [5][27]. - It also highlights the digital transformation initiatives in the textile industry, aiming for over 70% digitalization in key business processes by 2027 [33].