丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] "织"道系列 7——运动制造 6 月跟踪：运动鞋 服订单增速分化，景气弱化趋势放缓 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受益于海外品牌去库步入尾声，低基数下鞋服制造企业订单增速自 2023Q3 以来维持修复， 2025 年由于下游去库结束叠加终端零售偏弱，订单增速开始环比放缓。6 月运动鞋服订单增速 分化，景气弱化趋势放缓。当前下游行业在小幅补库后，因行业和多数品牌终端零售表现及预 期偏弱，预计海外服装渐入累库周期，制造短期内难现β。当前 Nike 经营筑底，后续若逐步修 复将有望带动行业整体回暖，推动制造商接单改善，制造板块有望迎来β。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 纺织品、服装与奢侈品 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title "织"道系列2]7——运动制造 6 月跟踪：运动鞋 服订 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2% year-on-year, while import growth was 4.1% [5] - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% [7] - The overall export performance in July was slightly stronger than expected, with potential risks from new tariffs and regulatory changes [8] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with increased demand from industrial and automotive sectors leading to higher capacity utilization rates [28] - In Q2 2025, SMIC reported revenue of $2.209 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a gross margin of 20.4%, exceeding previous guidance [29] - Huahong Semiconductor also reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue of $566 million, up 18.3% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 10.9% [30] Group 3: Construction Industry - The construction industry is under pressure, with indicators such as cement production and prices at low levels, indicating weak demand [18] - The price of rebar and the number of operating hours for excavators are also at near historical lows, reflecting ongoing challenges in the construction sector [20] - Leading construction companies are expected to see valuation improvements due to state-owned enterprise reforms and market management policies [19] Group 4: Consumer Goods Industry - LEGO's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 74.3 billion Danish Krone, approximately 83.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [24] - The Chinese toy brand Blokus is experiencing rapid growth, with 2024 revenue expected to reach 2.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 156% [26] - The IP derivative market in China reached a scale of 174.2 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2020 to 2024 [26] Group 5: Banking Sector - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reported a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [47] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.31%, marking a continuous decline over seven quarters [48] - The bank's strategic focus on digital transformation and risk management is expected to enhance its long-term investment value [49] Group 6: Food and Beverage Industry - Unified Enterprises China reported a revenue of 17.087 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [51] - The beverage segment achieved a revenue of 10.788 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points [54] - The company's strategy of expanding its product offerings and partnerships is expected to drive further growth [54] Group 7: Pet Food Industry - Zhongchong Co. achieved a revenue of 2.43 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.3% [56] - The company's domestic revenue increased by 38.9%, driven by strong performance in its core brand [57] - The overseas revenue also showed resilience, with a 17.6% increase, supported by new production lines in Canada and Mexico [57]

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固定收益点评 2025 年 5 月 9 日 美联储降息的关注点是什么? ➢ 货币政策均维持3月会议水平 美东时间5月7日，今年第三次FOMC会议落幕。联邦基金利率维持在 4.25-4.50%区间。其余货币政策亦均较3月会议没有改变，缩表进程 放缓同前（3月将允许每月250亿美元国债自然到期，调整为允许每 月50亿美元国债自然到期）。 团队成员 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号： S0210524040003 邮箱： xl30484@hfzq.com.cn 联系人: 黄涵静 邮箱： hhj30695@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1.《【华福固收】热门题材转债配置指南》 2025-05-08 2.《【华福固收】如何看待美国财政预算上 两院分歧？》 2025-05-08 证 券 研 究 报 告 固 收 研 究 海 外 宏 观 利 率 点 评 诚信专业 发现价值 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 Table_First e p y T t r o p e R _ e l b a T | t s r i F _ e l b a T Table_First| ...