证券研究报告 | 2025年10月10日 纺织服装 10 月投资策略 优于大市 9 月越南纺服出口同比转正，羊毛价格上涨显著 行情回顾：9 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势弱于大盘，其中纺织制造表现优于品 牌服饰，截至 10/9 日，分别+0.1%/-1.6%；港股纺服指数弱于大盘，9 月以 来板块整体下跌。重点关注公司中 9 月以来涨幅领先的包括：新澳股份 (16.9%)/丰泰企业(14.9%)/阿迪达斯(11.6%)/儒鸿(10.8%)/申洲国际 (8.6%)/报喜鸟(7.6%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：8 月服装社零同比增长 3.1%，增速环比提升，较 上月提速 1.3 百分点。9 月今年因较去年缺少中秋假期，同时气温仍然较热， 我们预计 9 月服装销售较 7-8 月有一定压力；去年十一假期受促销费政策带 动基数较高，今年受气温、以及出行客流增加分流影响，预计服饰销售存在 压力。2）电商：8 月电商户外品类增长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲 服饰/家纺/个护分别同比-1%/+22%/ -1%/-7%/-1%。运动服饰中，增速领先 的品牌包括迪桑特(51%)、露露乐蒙(35%)；户外品牌中，凯乐石(113 ...

行情回顾：9 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势弱于大盘，其中纺织制造表现优于品 牌服饰，截至 10/9 日，分别+0.1%/-1.6%；港股纺服指数弱于大盘，9 月以 来板块整体下跌。重点关注公司中 9 月以来涨幅领先的包括：新澳股份 (16.9%)/丰泰企业(14.9%)/阿迪达斯(11.6%)/儒鸿(10.8%)/申洲国际 (8.6%)/报喜鸟(7.6%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：8 月服装社零同比增长 3.1%，增速环比提升，较 上月提速 1.3 百分点。9 月今年因较去年缺少中秋假期，同时气温仍然较热， 我们预计 9 月服装销售较 7-8 月有一定压力；去年十一假期受促销费政策带 动基数较高，今年受气温、以及出行客流增加分流影响，预计服饰销售存在 压力。2）电商：8 月电商户外品类增长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲 服饰/家纺/个护分别同比-1%/+22%/ -1%/-7%/-1%。运动服饰中，增速领先 的品牌包括迪桑特(51%)、露露乐蒙(35%)；户外品牌中，凯乐石(113%)、蕉 下(79%)、可隆(69%)较其他品牌增长强劲；休闲服饰中，江南布衣(65%)保 持快速增长，主要靠京东、天猫平台带 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, copper prices fluctuated within a range, and prices were boosted by macro - factors at the end of the month. The implementation of US copper tariffs led to a narrowing of price spreads. COMEX copper ended a more than half - year tariff - expected trading with a 24% weekly decline, and the $3000 premium spread between COMEX and LME copper disappeared overnight. Macro expectations are leaning towards an increased probability of interest rate cuts in September, and domestic policy expectations are strengthening with a bright performance in the equity market. In the industrial fundamentals, although it was the off - season in China in August, the spot premium was strong, smelting profits did not improve significantly, and production declined month - on - month. After the tariff implementation, global visible inventories increased further. The flow of the 260,000 tons of COMEX copper inventory (with a cumulative increase of 170,000 tons this year) is crucial, and it may flow back to the LME copper market. During the re - balancing process, the emergence of invisible inventories due to demand shocks may affect the international copper price pricing center. In August, the copper price game was dull, with no obvious signs of long or short position increases and a low overall position level. However, the main price variable is still overseas. With the increasing certainty of interest rate cuts and the expectation of the peak season, copper prices may oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to the weekly line pressure at the 80,000 level [4][5][83][84]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Macro - level - In August, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI rebounded (the preliminary value in August was 50.05%, a 0.7 - percentage - point month - on - month increase), while the US manufacturing level declined (the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5%, a 3.4 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, hitting a nine - month low and remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months). China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, a 0.1 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, remaining below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The manufacturing industry was in a passive de - stocking stage under weak recovery, with a slight expansion in supply, a further decline in inventory, and a price increase, indicating an increase in apparent demand due to macro - policy stimulus. The implementation of US tariff policies and whether there will be incremental fiscal policies in China in the fourth quarter to promote the manufacturing industry into an active inventory - replenishment stage need to be continuously monitored. Macro expectations are leaning towards an increased probability of interest rate cuts. Under the continuous pressure from the Trump administration, Powell may change his monetary policy stance and not prioritize inflation control. After the marginal weakening of the US economic "hard data", the probability of an interest rate cut in September has increased significantly. Domestic policy expectations are strengthening, and the equity market is performing well [11][12]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - Global copper mine production: In 2024, the annual production was 2283.5 million tons, a 2.54% year - on - year increase, with a market surplus of 30.1 million tons. In 2025, from January to June, the cumulative production was 1144 million tons, a 3.32% year - on - year increase, with a supply surplus of 25.1 million tons in the first half of the year. In June, the production was 191.6 million tons, a 3.57% year - on - year increase, with a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons [21]. - China's copper concentrate imports: In 2024, the cumulative import was 2811.4 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year increase. In 2025, in July, the import was about 256 million tons, an 18.4% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative import from January to July was 1731.4 million tons, an 8% year - on - year increase [25]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - On August 29, the SMM import copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 41.48 dollars/dry ton, a 0.33 - dollar decrease from the previous period. The 2025 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 21.25 dollars/ton and 2.125 cents/pound [29]. Refined Copper Production - In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons month - on - month (a 0.24% decrease) and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by 97.88 million tons (a 12.30% increase). It is expected that in September, domestic electrolytic copper production will decrease by 5.25 million tons month - on - month (a 4.48% decrease) and increase by 11.47 million tons year - on - year (an 11.42% increase). From January to September, the cumulative production is expected to increase by 109.35 million tons (a 12.20% increase) [36]. Refined Copper Imports and Exports - In 2024, China imported 373.88 million tons of refined copper (a 6.49% year - on - year increase) and exported 45.75 million tons (a 63.86% year - on - year increase). In 2025, in July, the import of electrolytic copper was 29.69 million tons (a 1.20% month - on - month decrease but a 7.56% year - on - year increase), and the export soared to 11.84 million tons (a 49.86% month - on - month increase and a 69.13% year - on - year increase) [42]. Scrap Copper Supply - In 2024, China imported 225 million tons of copper scrap (a 13.26% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, the cumulative import was 133.55 million tons (a 0.77% year - on - year decrease), and in July, the import was 19.01 million tons (a 3.73% month - on - month increase but a 2.36% year - on - year decrease) [46]. Scrap - refined Copper Price Spread - The average price spread between refined and scrap copper rods was 862 yuan/ton, a 138 - yuan month - on - month increase. The weekly operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 11.80%, a 5.03 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 1.46 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [49]. Consumption - end - Power and grid investment: In 2024, power investment was 1168.722 billion yuan (a 12.14% year - on - year increase), and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan (a 15.26% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, power investment was 428.8 billion yuan (a 3.4% year - on - year increase), and grid investment was 331.5 billion yuan (a 12.5% year - on - year increase) [50]. - Air - conditioner production: In 2024, the annual production was 265.9844 million units (a 9.7% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, the production was 183.4554 million units (a 5.1% year - on - year increase), and the monthly production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, entering the production off - season [53]. - Automobile production: In 2025, from January to July, the cumulative production of automobiles was 18.235 million units (a 12.7% year - on - year increase), and the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.243 million units in July (a 26.3% year - on - year increase), accounting for 48.7% of the total new - vehicle sales [58]. - Real - estate: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters (a 27.7% year - on - year decrease), and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In 2025, in July, the completion area was 250 million square meters (a 16.5% year - on - year decrease), and the new - construction area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year [60]. Other Elements Inventory - As of August 29, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 516,400 tons, a 51,100 - ton monthly increase. The LME copper inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 158,900 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 7205 tons to 77,900 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 21,800 tons to 277,800 tons. As of August 28, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 75,000 tons, a 6000 - ton decrease from the previous week [66]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of August 26, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 26,230 lots, a monthly decrease of 11,117 lots. The non - commercial long position was 56,762 lots (a 17,888 - lot monthly decrease), and the non - commercial short position was 30,532 lots (a 6771 - lot monthly decrease) [68]. Premium and Discount - As of August 29, the LME copper spot discount was - 80.26 dollars/ton, and the discount pattern expanded. The domestic spot premium first decreased and then increased. It is expected that the SHFE copper spot premium will remain firm [77]. Basis - As of August 29, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous average price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [79]. Market Outlook - In the macro - level, copper prices may be boosted by the increasing certainty of interest rate cuts and the peak - season expectation, but attention should be paid to the weekly line pressure at the 80,000 level. In the industrial fundamentals, the flow of COMEX copper inventory and the impact of invisible inventory emergence on the international copper price pricing center need to be closely monitored [83][84].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The report indicates that the order growth for footwear and apparel manufacturing has been recovering since Q3 2023 due to the end of inventory destocking by overseas brands. However, it is expected that order growth will begin to slow down on a month-on-month basis in 2025 due to weak terminal retail performance [2][4][32] - The current situation shows a divergence in order growth for sports shoes and apparel, with a slowdown in the weakening trend of the industry. The recovery of Nike is crucial, as its operational recovery could lead to an overall industry rebound and improve order intake for manufacturers [2][4][32] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Orders - In June, the order growth for sports shoes and apparel showed divergence, with specific companies reporting varied performance. For instance, Yu Yuan Group's manufacturing revenue increased by 9.4% year-on-year, while Feng Tai's revenue decreased by 3.1% year-on-year. Overall, the order growth has been maintaining recovery since Q3 2023, but is expected to slow down in 2025 due to weak terminal retail [5][29][32] Market Strategy - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to return to fundamental investment logic as tariffs on Southeast Asia have largely been resolved. The report suggests focusing on quality manufacturers like Crystal International and Huali Group, as well as brands with high earnings elasticity post-tariff adjustments [6][33] - In the A-share market, brands are anticipated to shift to a destocking cycle in Q3, increasing the probability of industry improvement. Recommended stocks include Hailan Home and Robam Life, which are expected to benefit from this transition [6][34] Export Trends - In June 2025, China's apparel exports grew by 0.8% year-on-year, while Vietnam's apparel exports increased by 16.0%. However, footwear exports from China and Vietnam showed a decline of 4.0% and 3.3% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a mixed performance in the export market [26][28]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2% year-on-year, while import growth was 4.1% [5] - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% [7] - The overall export performance in July was slightly stronger than expected, with potential risks from new tariffs and regulatory changes [8] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with increased demand from industrial and automotive sectors leading to higher capacity utilization rates [28] - In Q2 2025, SMIC reported revenue of $2.209 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a gross margin of 20.4%, exceeding previous guidance [29] - Huahong Semiconductor also reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue of $566 million, up 18.3% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 10.9% [30] Group 3: Construction Industry - The construction industry is under pressure, with indicators such as cement production and prices at low levels, indicating weak demand [18] - The price of rebar and the number of operating hours for excavators are also at near historical lows, reflecting ongoing challenges in the construction sector [20] - Leading construction companies are expected to see valuation improvements due to state-owned enterprise reforms and market management policies [19] Group 4: Consumer Goods Industry - LEGO's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 74.3 billion Danish Krone, approximately 83.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [24] - The Chinese toy brand Blokus is experiencing rapid growth, with 2024 revenue expected to reach 2.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 156% [26] - The IP derivative market in China reached a scale of 174.2 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2020 to 2024 [26] Group 5: Banking Sector - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reported a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [47] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.31%, marking a continuous decline over seven quarters [48] - The bank's strategic focus on digital transformation and risk management is expected to enhance its long-term investment value [49] Group 6: Food and Beverage Industry - Unified Enterprises China reported a revenue of 17.087 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [51] - The beverage segment achieved a revenue of 10.788 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points [54] - The company's strategy of expanding its product offerings and partnerships is expected to drive further growth [54] Group 7: Pet Food Industry - Zhongchong Co. achieved a revenue of 2.43 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.3% [56] - The company's domestic revenue increased by 38.9%, driven by strong performance in its core brand [57] - The overseas revenue also showed resilience, with a 17.6% increase, supported by new production lines in Canada and Mexico [57]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation expectation and tariff implementation may be the key observation signals for the Fed. The Fed emphasizes the risks of rising unemployment and inflation (stagflation risk), and the logic of inflation, economy, and tariffs has become more direct and clear. Whether it is one - time inflation or persistent inflation depends on the scale of tariff impact, the time for tariffs to be fully transmitted to prices, and the stability of long - term inflation expectations. The Fed reiterates waiting for clear guidance before considering adjusting monetary policy [3][13]. - For the future market, the expectation of interest rate hikes can be anchored to the "long - term interest rate expectation maintained at 2%". For the expectation of interest rate cuts, in addition to focusing on the Fed's key economic indicators, the only clear factor is the "clear and light implementation" of tariff policies. If the tariff negotiation process is slow, the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year should be lowered, or there may be only 2 interest rate cuts throughout the year [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Monetary Policy Remains at the Level of the March Meeting - On May 7th, the third FOMC meeting of this year ended. The federal funds rate remained in the 4.25 - 4.50% range, and other monetary policies remained unchanged compared with the March meeting. The pace of balance sheet reduction slowed down as before, with the monthly natural maturity of Treasury bonds adjusted from $25 billion in March to $5 billion [2][8]. 1.2 Inflation Expectation and Tariff Implementation May be the Key Observation Signals for the Fed - "Tariff" is an important keyword in this meeting. For the future market, the expectation of interest rate hikes can be anchored to the "long - term interest rate expectation maintained at 2%", and for the expectation of interest rate cuts, in addition to focusing on key economic indicators, the only clear factor is the "clear and light implementation" of tariff policies. As of now, only the UK has initially reached a negotiation with the US, and specific details need to be finalized in the next few weeks. If the tariff negotiation process is slow, the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year should be lowered, or there may be only 2 interest rate cuts throughout the year [3][10]. 1.3 Comparison of the May Press Conference and the March Statement - **Stagflation Risk**: Emphasize the risks of rising unemployment and inflation (stagflation risk) [13][14]. - **Logic of Inflation, Economy, and Tariffs**: The logic has become more direct and clear. The Q1 GDP decline reflects the fluctuation of net exports, which is likely due to large - scale imports by companies before potential tariffs. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) maintained the previous quarter's level, with a slowdown in consumer spending growth and a recovery in equipment and intangible asset investment. The sentiment in household and business surveys has declined sharply, and the uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased, strongly reflecting concerns about trade policies. The attribution of inflation to tariffs has become more "direct" [12][13][16]. - **Inflation Impact**: Whether it is one - time inflation or persistent inflation depends on the scale of tariff impact, the time for tariffs to be fully transmitted to prices, and the stability of long - term inflation expectations. If the announced large - scale tariff increase policy is continuously implemented, it is likely to lead to rising inflation, slow economic growth, and increased unemployment [13][22]. - **Long - term Interest Rate Expectation**: Most long - term inflation expectation indicators are still consistent with the 2% inflation target [23]. - **Price Stability**: Price stability is emphasized as the cornerstone of a strong labor market [24]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustment**: Reiterate waiting for clear guidance before considering adjusting monetary policy [13][27].