商贸零售 商贸零售 2026 年 01 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《潮宏基多渠道高效推新，毛戈平推 出高端冻龄系列 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.28 《海南自贸港封关正式启动，首日数 据表现亮眼—行业周报》-2025.12.21 《11 月社零同比+1.3%，整体增速有 所承压—行业点评报告》-2025.12.15 "人、货、场"迭代升级，关注情绪消费赛道机会 ——行业周报 黄泽鹏（分析师） 李昕恬（联系人） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 lixintian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125100021 "人、货、场"演进升级，情绪价值驱动消费意向 2025 年伴随国家消费刺激政策陆续出台及线下业态积极调改变革，零售业态 "人、货、场"演进升级，"品质+服务"驱动下，情绪消费为行业带来新机会。 （1）人：情绪价值驱动消费意向，"研究型消费+悦己导向+长期主义"成 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The retail industry index rose by 6.66% in the week of December 15-19, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.63 percentage points, ranking first among 31 primary industries [6][15] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port has shown promising initial results, with duty-free sales reaching 118 million yuan on the first day and a significant increase in the number of zero-tariff goods [4][25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment and the potential for high-growth sectors within the retail space, particularly in jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [7][30][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2458.79 points, with a weekly increase of 6.66% [6][15] - The supermarket sector saw the highest weekly increase of 14.18%, while the commercial property sector led with a year-to-date increase of 22.51% [17][19] Industry Dynamics - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced operations on December 18, 2025, with a focus on "one line open, two lines controlled, and free trade within the island" [4][25] - The proportion of zero-tariff goods increased from 21% to 74%, covering approximately 6,600 items, which is expected to reduce import tax burdens by about 20% for related enterprises [26][25] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [7][30] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [7][30] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic cosmetics brands that meet emotional value and safety ingredient innovations, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [7][31] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical aesthetics product manufacturers and leading chain medical institutions, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [7][31] Company-Specific Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 38.986 billion HKD for FY2026H1, with a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.1% [37] - Lao Pu Gold achieved a revenue of 12.354 billion HKD for FY2025H1, marking a significant increase of 250.9% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 285.8% [36] - Yonghui Supermarket's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 42.434 billion yuan, down 22.2% year-on-year, with net profit showing a significant loss [44]

商贸零售 商贸零售 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《林清轩更新招股书，关注高端国货 护 肤 公 司 上 市 进 展 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.7 《医美化妆品 11 月月报：美丽田园收 购思妍丽 100%股权，双十一大促落幕 美 妆 表 现 亮 眼 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.3 《从保值到颜值，再到情绪价值—行 业投资策略》-2025.12.3 商务部明确零售品质转型，关注永辉超市调改成效 ——行业周报 黄泽鹏（分析师） 李昕恬（联系人） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 lixintian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125100021 商务部对零售行业定调积极，关注永辉超市调改变革 本周（12 月 9 日至 10 日），全国零售业创新发展大会在北京召开，会议提出学 习推广胖东来好经验好做法加快转型提升。商务部副部长盛秋平 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of high-end skincare products in China, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.8% from 2024 to 2029 [28] - Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, is positioned to capitalize on this growth, having updated its IPO prospectus, indicating a potential acceleration in its capital process [25][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][32] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2310.07 points, down 0.83%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.37% [5][14] - Among the retail sub-sectors, the professional chain segment saw the largest increase, while the jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with a 20.56% rise [17][20] Company Focus: Lin Qingxuan - Lin Qingxuan achieved a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.3%, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 109.9% [25][28] - The brand's core product, camellia oil, has dominated the facial oil sales market for 11 consecutive years, establishing a strong market presence [25][28] - Lin Qingxuan's online and offline revenue contributions were 65.4% and 34.6%, respectively, with a total of 554 stores, the highest among domestic and international high-end skincare brands [25][28] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [6][32] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to market changes and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][32] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that meet emotional value and safety ingredient innovations, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [6][32] - Investment Theme 4: Target differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and expanding chain medical beauty institutions, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][32] Company Performance Highlights - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 38.986 billion HKD in FY2026H1, a slight decline of 1.1%, but a net profit increase of 0.1% [39][40] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 6.237 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, up 28.4%, with a net profit increase of 0.3% [42] - The report notes that companies like Proya and Marubi have shown strong performance in the beauty sector, with Proya's revenue reaching 7.098 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 1.9% [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first half of FY2026, but a marginal increase in net profit, indicating resilience amid challenges. The board declared an interim dividend, reflecting confidence in future performance [1]. Financial Performance - FY2026H1 revenue reached HKD 38.986 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.1% - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share [1]. Sales and Profitability - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 2.6% in FY2026H1, with Q1 and Q2 showing contrasting trends of -3.3% and +7.6% respectively - Gross margin for FY2026H1 was 30.5%, down by 0.9 percentage points, benefiting from rising gold prices and a higher proportion of high-margin priced jewelry [1]. - Revenue from priced jewelry, gold jewelry, and watches showed year-on-year changes of +9.3%, -3.8%, and -10.6% respectively, with priced jewelry performing well [1]. Regional Performance - Revenue from mainland China decreased by 2.5%, while revenue from markets outside mainland China increased by 6.5% - Mainland China accounted for 82.6% of total revenue, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points [1]. Brand Transformation and Product Optimization - The company is actively optimizing store quality and efficiency, closing 611 stores in mainland China, resulting in a total of 5,663 stores at the end of FY2026H1, with 27.3% being direct-operated and 72.7% franchised [1]. - The company opened 8 new image stores in FY2026H1, enhancing brand appeal [2]. - Sales of signature priced products, including the Chao Fu, Chuan Xi, and Palace Museum series, reached HKD 3.4 billion in FY2026H1, with the proportion of priced gold products in mainland China increasing to 31.8%, up by 4.4 percentage points [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 38.986 billion for FY2026H1, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, an increase of 0.1% [5] - The company is actively pursuing brand transformation and product optimization, which has led to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 [5] - Same-store sales in mainland China showed a recovery with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in FY2026H1, and a significant growth of 38.8% from October 1 to November 18, 2025 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For FY2026E, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 90.018 billion, with a net profit of HKD 8.247 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.4% [9] - The projected EPS for FY2026E is HKD 0.83, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.7, 14.9, and 13.7 for FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E respectively [9] - The gross margin for FY2026H1 was reported at 30.5%, slightly down by 0.9 percentage points, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin products [6]