商贸零售 商贸零售 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《林清轩更新招股书，关注高端国货 护 肤 公 司 上 市 进 展 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.7 《医美化妆品 11 月月报：美丽田园收 购思妍丽 100%股权，双十一大促落幕 美 妆 表 现 亮 眼 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.3 《从保值到颜值，再到情绪价值—行 业投资策略》-2025.12.3 商务部明确零售品质转型，关注永辉超市调改成效 ——行业周报 黄泽鹏（分析师） 李昕恬（联系人） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 lixintian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125100021 商务部对零售行业定调积极，关注永辉超市调改变革 本周（12 月 9 日至 10 日），全国零售业创新发展大会在北京召开，会议提出学 习推广胖东来好经验好做法加快转型提升。商务部副部长盛秋平 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first half of FY2026, but a marginal increase in net profit, indicating resilience amid challenges. The board declared an interim dividend, reflecting confidence in future performance [1]. Financial Performance - FY2026H1 revenue reached HKD 38.986 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.1% - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share [1]. Sales and Profitability - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 2.6% in FY2026H1, with Q1 and Q2 showing contrasting trends of -3.3% and +7.6% respectively - Gross margin for FY2026H1 was 30.5%, down by 0.9 percentage points, benefiting from rising gold prices and a higher proportion of high-margin priced jewelry [1]. - Revenue from priced jewelry, gold jewelry, and watches showed year-on-year changes of +9.3%, -3.8%, and -10.6% respectively, with priced jewelry performing well [1]. Regional Performance - Revenue from mainland China decreased by 2.5%, while revenue from markets outside mainland China increased by 6.5% - Mainland China accounted for 82.6% of total revenue, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points [1]. Brand Transformation and Product Optimization - The company is actively optimizing store quality and efficiency, closing 611 stores in mainland China, resulting in a total of 5,663 stores at the end of FY2026H1, with 27.3% being direct-operated and 72.7% franchised [1]. - The company opened 8 new image stores in FY2026H1, enhancing brand appeal [2]. - Sales of signature priced products, including the Chao Fu, Chuan Xi, and Palace Museum series, reached HKD 3.4 billion in FY2026H1, with the proportion of priced gold products in mainland China increasing to 31.8%, up by 4.4 percentage points [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 38.986 billion for FY2026H1, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, an increase of 0.1% [5] - The company is actively pursuing brand transformation and product optimization, which has led to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 [5] - Same-store sales in mainland China showed a recovery with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in FY2026H1, and a significant growth of 38.8% from October 1 to November 18, 2025 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For FY2026E, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 90.018 billion, with a net profit of HKD 8.247 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.4% [9] - The projected EPS for FY2026E is HKD 0.83, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.7, 14.9, and 13.7 for FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E respectively [9] - The gross margin for FY2026H1 was reported at 30.5%, slightly down by 0.9 percentage points, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin products [6]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's FY2026 Q2 operational performance shows a 4.1% year-on-year growth in RSV, aligning with expectations [1] Group 1: Domestic Performance - Offline same-store sales growth turned positive in Q2, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in direct same-store sales in mainland China [1] - The average selling price of gold jewelry and products increased by 23% year-on-year, driven by a significant rise in gold prices, which increased by 46% compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2] - Excluding price factors, same-store sales volume in mainland China decreased by 8.6%, showing a narrowing decline compared to Q1 [1] Group 2: Product and Channel Strategy - The reduction in same-store sales volume is attributed to the company's increased product innovation efforts, with the successful launch of the "Chuanxi" series and the expansion of existing product lines [2] - The retail sales of gold products saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 43.7%, indicating significant growth in sales volume when excluding price factors [2] - The company closed 300 underperforming stores in Q2, reducing the total to 5,663 stores, which may help retain customer traffic in remaining stores [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Regional Performance - E-commerce sales in mainland China grew by 28.1% year-on-year, accounting for 6.7% of the company's mainland sales and 15.5% of sales volume [2] - The company is enhancing its IP collaboration and engaging consumers through comprehensive online interactions to expand its e-commerce business [2] - In FY2026 Q2, RSV in Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions increased by 11.4%, with same-store sales growth of 6.2% in Hong Kong and 17.3% in Macau [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company expects a 3% revenue growth for FY2026, with a projected net profit increase of 32% to HKD 7.8 billion [3] - The company anticipates net profits of HKD 78.06 billion, HKD 88.30 billion, and HKD 98.78 billion for FY2026-2028, with a PE ratio of 21 for FY2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Chow Tai Fook (01929), a leader in the jewelry industry, is focusing on single-store operations, optimizing product design, and enhancing consumer engagement. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of HKD 78.06 billion, 88.30 billion, and 98.78 billion for FY2026-2028, with a FY2026 PE ratio of 21 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook's FY2026 Q2 operating results show a group RSV growth of 4.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1]. - The company anticipates a 3% revenue growth for FY2026 and a 32% increase in net profit to HKD 78 billion, driven by product structure optimization and rising gold prices [4]. Group 2: Domestic Market Performance - In the domestic market, the same-store sales growth turned positive, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in Q2, particularly in gold and jewelry products [1]. - Excluding price factors, the same-store sales volume declined by 8.6%, but the decline has narrowed compared to Q1, attributed to increased product launches and the popularity of new collections [2]. Group 3: E-commerce and Regional Performance - E-commerce sales in the domestic market grew by 28.1%, accounting for 6.7% of total sales and 15.5% of total volume, supported by IP collaborations and enhanced online consumer interactions [3]. - In the Hong Kong and Macau regions, RSV increased by 11.4%, with same-store sales growth of 6.2% in Hong Kong and 17.3% in Macau, benefiting from rising gold prices [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [6] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY2026Q2 performance shows a positive trend with a 4.1% year-on-year growth in group RSV, aligning with expectations [1] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 3% for FY2026, with a projected net profit increase of 32% to HKD 7.8 billion [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In FY2026Q2, Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales in mainland China turned positive, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in direct same-store sales [1] - The average selling price of gold jewelry increased by 23% year-on-year, driven by a significant rise in gold prices, which were up 46% compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2] - Excluding price factors, same-store sales volume declined by 8.6%, but the decline was less severe than in Q1, attributed to new product launches and the optimization of existing product lines [2] E-commerce Growth - Chow Tai Fook's e-commerce sales in mainland China grew by 28.1% year-on-year, accounting for 6.7% of total sales and 15.5% of total volume [2] Hong Kong and Macau Performance - In FY2026Q2, RSV in Hong Kong and Macau increased by 11.4%, with same-store sales growth of 6.2% in Hong Kong and 17.3% in Macau [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Chow Tai Fook's net profit for FY2026 to reach HKD 7.8 billion, with a PE ratio of 21 times [3] - Projected net profits for FY2026-2028 are HKD 78.06 billion, HKD 88.30 billion, and HKD 98.78 billion respectively [3]