Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The total retail sales in China for 2025 reached CNY 501,202 billion, with a year-on-year growth of +3.7%. December's retail sales showed a modest increase of +0.9% [25][34] - The retail sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with service retail outperforming goods retail. Online sales are rebounding, while offline supermarkets, convenience stores, and specialty shops are performing relatively steadily [4][27] - The high-end traditional gold market is expanding, with brands like Laopu Gold gaining traction among high-net-worth consumers, supported by strong sales during promotional events [34][38] Summary by Sections Retail Sector Overview - The retail and social service indices reported increases of 2.16% and 3.20% respectively from January 19 to January 23, 2026, with the retail index ranking 16th among 31 sectors [6][15] - The jewelry sector has shown the highest growth, with an increase of 8.66% in the past week and 11.51% year-to-date [18][20] Consumer Trends - Essential consumer goods are stable, with food and oil products performing particularly well. In contrast, optional consumer goods show mixed results, with cosmetics and jewelry performing better than clothing and home appliances [31][33] - The online retail market for physical goods reached CNY 130,923 billion in 2025, growing by +5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [27][30] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in high-demand sectors driven by emotional consumption themes, particularly in gold and jewelry, with recommendations for brands like Laopu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Tai Fook [7][41] - Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to market changes and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [7][39] - Highlight domestic beauty brands that innovate in emotional value and safety, recommending brands like Mao Ge Ping and Proya [7][39] - Consider differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and expanding chain medical institutions, with recommendations for companies like Meili Tianyuan and Aimeike [7][39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The retail industry is undergoing an evolution in the "people, goods, and scene" framework, driven by emotional consumption, which presents new opportunities for growth [3][25] - High-end gold and fashion jewelry are gaining traction among consumers, with a focus on product differentiation and cultural significance [3][32] - The cosmetics industry is innovating through the IP of technical ingredients and cultural confidence, enhancing product appeal and market competitiveness [3][37] - Offline retail is shifting from selling "goods" to offering "services and experiences," with companies like Yonghui Supermarket leading the transformation [3][41] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - In 2025, the retail sector index closed at 2422.59 points, with an annual increase of 8.21%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 18.41% [5][14] - The retail industry ranked 23rd among 31 sectors in terms of performance [15] Industry Dynamics - The emotional value is driving consumer intentions, with a focus on "research-based consumption," "self-satisfaction," and "long-termism" as key decision-making trends [25][28] - High-end gold is becoming a preferred asset for wealth preservation, while fashion gold is appealing to younger consumers through innovative designs and social media engagement [32] - The cosmetics sector is witnessing a shift towards self-developed core ingredients and cultural narratives, enhancing brand value [37] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in the emotional consumption theme, particularly in the gold jewelry sector, with recommendations for brands like Chao Hong Ji and Lao Pu Gold [6][50] - Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to market changes, such as Yonghui Supermarket and Ai Ying Shi [6][48] - Highlight cosmetics brands that innovate in emotional value and safety, including Mao Ge Ping and Po Lai Ya [6][48] - Consider differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Ai Mei Ke and Ke Di-B [6][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The retail industry index rose by 6.66% in the week of December 15-19, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.63 percentage points, ranking first among 31 primary industries [6][15] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port has shown promising initial results, with duty-free sales reaching 118 million yuan on the first day and a significant increase in the number of zero-tariff goods [4][25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment and the potential for high-growth sectors within the retail space, particularly in jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [7][30][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2458.79 points, with a weekly increase of 6.66% [6][15] - The supermarket sector saw the highest weekly increase of 14.18%, while the commercial property sector led with a year-to-date increase of 22.51% [17][19] Industry Dynamics - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced operations on December 18, 2025, with a focus on "one line open, two lines controlled, and free trade within the island" [4][25] - The proportion of zero-tariff goods increased from 21% to 74%, covering approximately 6,600 items, which is expected to reduce import tax burdens by about 20% for related enterprises [26][25] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [7][30] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [7][30] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic cosmetics brands that meet emotional value and safety ingredient innovations, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [7][31] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical aesthetics product manufacturers and leading chain medical institutions, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [7][31] Company-Specific Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 38.986 billion HKD for FY2026H1, with a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.1% [37] - Lao Pu Gold achieved a revenue of 12.354 billion HKD for FY2025H1, marking a significant increase of 250.9% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 285.8% [36] - Yonghui Supermarket's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 42.434 billion yuan, down 22.2% year-on-year, with net profit showing a significant loss [44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has set a positive tone for the retail industry, emphasizing the importance of quality and service-driven transformation. Retailers with strong supply chain advantages and the ability to adapt are expected to benefit [25][27] - Yonghui Supermarket is undergoing a significant transformation focused on product centralization, with 222 stores modified by the end of September 2025. The company has seen a recovery in same-store sales and is enhancing its product quality and differentiation [27][29] Industry Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2305.32 points, down 0.21% for the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell 0.34% [5][14] - The supermarket sector showed the highest increase among retail sub-sectors, with a weekly rise of 10.73% [17][20] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in sectors benefiting from emotional consumption themes, including: - **Gold and Jewelry**: Recommend brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Kee, which are expected to benefit from differentiated product offerings [6][29] - **Offline Retail**: Highlight companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Ai Ying Shi, which are adapting to market changes [6][29] - **Cosmetics**: Recommend domestic brands that emphasize emotional value and innovative safe ingredients, such as Maogeping and Proya [6][29] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Focus on differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical chains, recommending companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][29] Company-Specific Insights - **Yonghui Supermarket**: The company reported a revenue of 424.34 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 22.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 7.10 billion yuan. The company is in a transformation phase aimed at quality retail [31][43] - **Chow Tai Fook**: The company achieved a revenue of 389.86 billion HKD for FY2026H1, down 1.1%, with a net profit of 25.34 billion HKD, up 0.1%. The company is optimizing its product structure and store quality [36][38] - **Chow Hong Kee**: The company reported a revenue of 62.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, up 28.4%, with a net profit of 3.17 billion yuan, up 0.3%. The company is expanding its franchise model and enhancing product differentiation [39][40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of high-end skincare products in China, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.8% from 2024 to 2029 [28] - Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, is positioned to capitalize on this growth, having updated its IPO prospectus, indicating a potential acceleration in its capital process [25][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][32] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2310.07 points, down 0.83%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.37% [5][14] - Among the retail sub-sectors, the professional chain segment saw the largest increase, while the jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with a 20.56% rise [17][20] Company Focus: Lin Qingxuan - Lin Qingxuan achieved a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.3%, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 109.9% [25][28] - The brand's core product, camellia oil, has dominated the facial oil sales market for 11 consecutive years, establishing a strong market presence [25][28] - Lin Qingxuan's online and offline revenue contributions were 65.4% and 34.6%, respectively, with a total of 554 stores, the highest among domestic and international high-end skincare brands [25][28] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [6][32] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to market changes and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][32] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that meet emotional value and safety ingredient innovations, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [6][32] - Investment Theme 4: Target differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and expanding chain medical beauty institutions, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][32] Company Performance Highlights - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 38.986 billion HKD in FY2026H1, a slight decline of 1.1%, but a net profit increase of 0.1% [39][40] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 6.237 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, up 28.4%, with a net profit increase of 0.3% [42] - The report notes that companies like Proya and Marubi have shown strong performance in the beauty sector, with Proya's revenue reaching 7.098 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 1.9% [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first half of FY2026, but a marginal increase in net profit, indicating resilience amid challenges. The board declared an interim dividend, reflecting confidence in future performance [1]. Financial Performance - FY2026H1 revenue reached HKD 38.986 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.1% - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share [1]. Sales and Profitability - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 2.6% in FY2026H1, with Q1 and Q2 showing contrasting trends of -3.3% and +7.6% respectively - Gross margin for FY2026H1 was 30.5%, down by 0.9 percentage points, benefiting from rising gold prices and a higher proportion of high-margin priced jewelry [1]. - Revenue from priced jewelry, gold jewelry, and watches showed year-on-year changes of +9.3%, -3.8%, and -10.6% respectively, with priced jewelry performing well [1]. Regional Performance - Revenue from mainland China decreased by 2.5%, while revenue from markets outside mainland China increased by 6.5% - Mainland China accounted for 82.6% of total revenue, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points [1]. Brand Transformation and Product Optimization - The company is actively optimizing store quality and efficiency, closing 611 stores in mainland China, resulting in a total of 5,663 stores at the end of FY2026H1, with 27.3% being direct-operated and 72.7% franchised [1]. - The company opened 8 new image stores in FY2026H1, enhancing brand appeal [2]. - Sales of signature priced products, including the Chao Fu, Chuan Xi, and Palace Museum series, reached HKD 3.4 billion in FY2026H1, with the proportion of priced gold products in mainland China increasing to 31.8%, up by 4.4 percentage points [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 38.986 billion for FY2026H1, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, an increase of 0.1% [5] - The company is actively pursuing brand transformation and product optimization, which has led to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 [5] - Same-store sales in mainland China showed a recovery with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in FY2026H1, and a significant growth of 38.8% from October 1 to November 18, 2025 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For FY2026E, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 90.018 billion, with a net profit of HKD 8.247 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.4% [9] - The projected EPS for FY2026E is HKD 0.83, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.7, 14.9, and 13.7 for FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E respectively [9] - The gross margin for FY2026H1 was reported at 30.5%, slightly down by 0.9 percentage points, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin products [6]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's FY2026 Q2 operational performance shows a 4.1% year-on-year growth in RSV, aligning with expectations [1] Group 1: Domestic Performance - Offline same-store sales growth turned positive in Q2, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in direct same-store sales in mainland China [1] - The average selling price of gold jewelry and products increased by 23% year-on-year, driven by a significant rise in gold prices, which increased by 46% compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2] - Excluding price factors, same-store sales volume in mainland China decreased by 8.6%, showing a narrowing decline compared to Q1 [1] Group 2: Product and Channel Strategy - The reduction in same-store sales volume is attributed to the company's increased product innovation efforts, with the successful launch of the "Chuanxi" series and the expansion of existing product lines [2] - The retail sales of gold products saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 43.7%, indicating significant growth in sales volume when excluding price factors [2] - The company closed 300 underperforming stores in Q2, reducing the total to 5,663 stores, which may help retain customer traffic in remaining stores [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Regional Performance - E-commerce sales in mainland China grew by 28.1% year-on-year, accounting for 6.7% of the company's mainland sales and 15.5% of sales volume [2] - The company is enhancing its IP collaboration and engaging consumers through comprehensive online interactions to expand its e-commerce business [2] - In FY2026 Q2, RSV in Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions increased by 11.4%, with same-store sales growth of 6.2% in Hong Kong and 17.3% in Macau [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company expects a 3% revenue growth for FY2026, with a projected net profit increase of 32% to HKD 7.8 billion [3] - The company anticipates net profits of HKD 78.06 billion, HKD 88.30 billion, and HKD 98.78 billion for FY2026-2028, with a PE ratio of 21 for FY2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Chow Tai Fook (01929), a leader in the jewelry industry, is focusing on single-store operations, optimizing product design, and enhancing consumer engagement. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of HKD 78.06 billion, 88.30 billion, and 98.78 billion for FY2026-2028, with a FY2026 PE ratio of 21 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook's FY2026 Q2 operating results show a group RSV growth of 4.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1]. - The company anticipates a 3% revenue growth for FY2026 and a 32% increase in net profit to HKD 78 billion, driven by product structure optimization and rising gold prices [4]. Group 2: Domestic Market Performance - In the domestic market, the same-store sales growth turned positive, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in Q2, particularly in gold and jewelry products [1]. - Excluding price factors, the same-store sales volume declined by 8.6%, but the decline has narrowed compared to Q1, attributed to increased product launches and the popularity of new collections [2]. Group 3: E-commerce and Regional Performance - E-commerce sales in the domestic market grew by 28.1%, accounting for 6.7% of total sales and 15.5% of total volume, supported by IP collaborations and enhanced online consumer interactions [3]. - In the Hong Kong and Macau regions, RSV increased by 11.4%, with same-store sales growth of 6.2% in Hong Kong and 17.3% in Macau, benefiting from rising gold prices [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [6] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY2026Q2 performance shows a positive trend with a 4.1% year-on-year growth in group RSV, aligning with expectations [1] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 3% for FY2026, with a projected net profit increase of 32% to HKD 7.8 billion [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In FY2026Q2, Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales in mainland China turned positive, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in direct same-store sales [1] - The average selling price of gold jewelry increased by 23% year-on-year, driven by a significant rise in gold prices, which were up 46% compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2] - Excluding price factors, same-store sales volume declined by 8.6%, but the decline was less severe than in Q1, attributed to new product launches and the optimization of existing product lines [2] E-commerce Growth - Chow Tai Fook's e-commerce sales in mainland China grew by 28.1% year-on-year, accounting for 6.7% of total sales and 15.5% of total volume [2] Hong Kong and Macau Performance - In FY2026Q2, RSV in Hong Kong and Macau increased by 11.4%, with same-store sales growth of 6.2% in Hong Kong and 17.3% in Macau [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Chow Tai Fook's net profit for FY2026 to reach HKD 7.8 billion, with a PE ratio of 21 times [3] - Projected net profits for FY2026-2028 are HKD 78.06 billion, HKD 88.30 billion, and HKD 98.78 billion respectively [3]