北京时间2月16日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铅期货价格小幅下行，现报1954.5美元/吨，跌幅0.89%，盘中 最高触及1965.5美元/吨，最低下探1953美元/吨。 伦铅期货实时行情 更新时间：---- 最新价 -- 涨跌值 -- 涨跌幅 -- 点击查看伦铅期货最新行情走势 LME铅期货行情回顾： | | | 2月13日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铅期货行情 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | LME铅 | 1982.5 | 1982.5 | 1956.5 | 1972 | -0.60% | 【铅市场消息速递】 2月13日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铅注册仓单216675吨。注销仓单15975吨，减少250吨。铅库存 232650吨，减少250吨。 ...

Core Insights - LME metal futures showed mixed performance, with aluminum reaching its highest level since April 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, copper was reported at $13,024, down $159, a decrease of 1.21% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,212.5, up $17, an increase of 0.53%, marking a four-day consecutive rise [1] - Zinc was reported at $3,358.5, up $7.5, an increase of 0.22% [1] - Lead closed at $2,028, down $8, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - Tin was reported at $54,865, up $370, an increase of 0.68% [1] - Nickel closed at $18,235, down $355, a decrease of 1.91% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The reduction in lead inventory restricts price corrections [1] - The unexpected decline in the US ADP employment in November has made investors almost completely convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates next week [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,210 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change from the previous day; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,993.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.30% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 27,017 lots, a decrease of 25,060 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 5,243 lots, a decrease of 5,336 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 46,627 lots, a decrease of 974 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 171,881 lots, an increase of 574 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -42.45 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.45 US dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was 85.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.93 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - month contract was -109.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.6 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead futures inventory was 16,629 tons, a decrease of 1,502 tons; LME lead inventory was 253,150 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 306 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly decreased by 32,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023, with a sharp increase in the number of unemployed in small businesses, leading investors to almost fully believe that the Fed will cut interest rates next week [2] 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas inventory reduction supports the price of lead [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 17,420 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 2,045 dollars/ton, up 0.42% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 27,206 lots, a decrease of 16,966 lots, and the trading volume of LME lead was 10,307 lots, an increase of 3,259 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 59,818 lots, a decrease of 2,680 lots, and the open interest of LME lead was 152,994 lots, an increase of 2,647 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -8.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 6.46 dollars/ton [1] - **Import Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -366.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 208.33 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - month contract was -225.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 119.72 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 21,903 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 203,700 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 101,750 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled refined lead was 17,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 222 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - The State Council General Office plans to strengthen research, development, and application of key core technologies in the field of artificial intelligence, and promote the application and standard construction of the unmanned system in the land, sea, and air [2] - The Democratic Party has softened its stance, while the Republican Party has rejected but admitted progress. Trump's chief economic advisor warns that the government shutdown will have a far more serious impact on the economy than expected, and the US Q4 GDP growth rate may be halved [2] - The trend strength of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - After expected adjustments, the supply - demand contradiction this year is relatively reduced, and the import volume may decline, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in the second half of the year, with the reference operating range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Based on the expectation of strong supply and demand, it is recommended to focus on unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures. The monthly spread structure may change from C to B, and it is advisable to pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities. There is also an expectation of intermittent opening of the import window, and an interval - trading approach is recommended [4][123] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the price centers of Shanghai and London lead futures were significantly lower than the same period in 2024. In Q1, Shanghai lead showed an inverted V - shaped trend due to supply - demand mismatch around the Spring Festival. In Q2, it dropped sharply due to the US tariff increase, then rebounded as the US dollar weakened and overseas structural risks emerged, along with the anticipation of peak - season demand stocking [15] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut path is the core variable, affected by trade protection and geopolitical conflicts. A potential rate cut in Q3 may briefly boost London lead, but the rebound is limited by demand. Trade protection may suppress China's lead export demand. Geopolitical risks may increase external - market volatility. Domestically, policy - driven consumption is crucial for lead demand. Although previous consumption - promotion policies had limited effects, future demand may rely more on policy support. Macroeconomic impacts are reflected in the internal - external price ratio [18][19] 3.3 Primary End 3.3.1 Lead Concentrate - Overseas, Q1 2025 lead - concentrate production was lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline of 1.4 million tons and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 3 million tons. The decline was due to factors like lower ore grades, weather disturbances, and mining difficulties. Although there are expectations of increased production from some mines this year, the overall increment is limited, and there are still risks of disturbances in H2. Domestically, lead - concentrate production increased in H1 2025, and imports were high. The annual production is expected to increase by 5 million tons, and the import growth rate is expected to be around 9%. However, the processing fee (TC) may decline in H2 due to tight overseas supply and trade - flow risks [23][33][34] 3.3.2 Primary Lead - Overseas, from January to April 2025, primary - lead production showed a recovery trend, mainly due to the low base in H1 2024. This year, new primary - smelting capacity is limited, and lead concentrate will mainly be consumed through imports. Domestically, from January to June, primary - lead production increased by 9.7% year - on - year. In H2, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new capacities. The annual production growth rate is expected to be around 2% [50][54][55] 3.4 Secondary End - In 2025, the over - capacity of waste - battery processing has intensified, and new capacities are squeezing traditional ones. Recycling merchants have increased their hoarding and advanced the hoarding time. From January to June, secondary - lead production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In H2, although there is an expectation of improved replacement demand, waste batteries will remain in short supply, and secondary - smelter profits will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of capacity reduction [62][63][68] 3.5 Demand End 3.5.1 Lead Batteries - In H1, battery - enterprise operations were below expectations. In H2, there may be a phased improvement in consumption. In terms of exports, although there was an improvement in H1, the overall annual export demand is expected to decline by 1% [75][100][104] 3.5.2 Domestic Terminal Demand - For electric two - wheelers, production increased in H1, mainly due to consumption - promotion policies. The new national standard and trade - in policies may stimulate demand, but lithium - battery substitution is a long - term risk. For automobiles, production increased in H1, but export may face pressure in H2, and lithium - battery substitution will also affect lead - battery demand. In the communication - base - station and energy - storage sectors, base - station equipment production decreased, while energy - storage demand was strong, and the lead - consumption growth rate is expected to reach 8% [82][87][92] 3.5.3 Overseas Demand - In 2025, overseas lead demand generally recovered, with an increase in Southeast Asia and a decline in India. China's lead - battery exports decreased in H1, and the annual export volume is expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weak overseas demand, high domestic costs, trade protection, and battery - factory expansion overseas [94][100][104] 3.6 Inventory End - In H1, LME lead inventory was high, indicating weak overseas consumption. Domestically, social inventory was at a relatively low level at the end of June. In H2, social inventory may fluctuate widely, and potential delivery risks should be noted due to tight ore supply. There is also a possibility of the import window opening intermittently, and attention should be paid to interval - trading opportunities based on the internal - external price ratio [108][112][121] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be reduced this year, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in H2, with a reference range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures are recommended, as well as positive spread arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads and interval trading based on the internal - external price ratio [4][122][123]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The lead industry is rated as "running strongly" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The lead market is expected to run strongly, with data changes in various indicators showing different trends [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Price and Fluctuation**: The closing price of Shanghai lead main contract was 17,225 yuan/ton, up 0.20%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,031.5 dollars/ton, up 0.97% [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai lead main contract was 52,643 lots, a decrease of 3,709 lots; the open interest was 51,182 lots, an increase of 2,838 lots. The trading volume of LME lead was 8,483 lots, a decrease of 305 lots; the open interest was 151,844 lots, a decrease of 1,129 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai No.1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -22 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 45,278 tons, an increase of 611 tons; the LME lead inventory was 273,250 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [1] - **Waste Battery and Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [1] **News** - Fed officials said they were not ready to support a rate cut at the July meeting, and the White House said Trump would not make a decision on the next Fed chairman nominee in the near future [2] **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of lead is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [2]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View The report indicates that there may be pressure above the lead price, with a lead trend intensity of -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,445 yuan/ton, down 0.03%, and the trading volume was 37,771 lots, down 13,182 lots. The closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,022.5 dollars/ton, down 0.86%, and the trading volume was 3,197 lots, down 495 lots [1]. - **Positions**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 50,652 lots, down 538 lots, while the LME lead open interest was 142,830 lots, up 864 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -23.85 dollars/ton, down 2.77 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 61,170 tons, down 1,745 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 231,925 tons, up 725 tons [1]. - **Other Indicators**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit and loss of secondary lead was -19 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan/ton [1]. News China's official manufacturing PMI in March was 50.5, indicating the fastest expansion rate of the manufacturing industry in a year [1]. Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is -1, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].