2025 年 11 月 10 日 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17420 | -0.06% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2045 | 0.42% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 27206 | -16966 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 10307 | 3259 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 59818 | -2680 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 152994 | 2647 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -8.5 | 6.46 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -60 | 0 | 进口升贴水（美 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - After expected adjustments, the supply - demand contradiction this year is relatively reduced, and the import volume may decline, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in the second half of the year, with the reference operating range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Based on the expectation of strong supply and demand, it is recommended to focus on unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures. The monthly spread structure may change from C to B, and it is advisable to pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities. There is also an expectation of intermittent opening of the import window, and an interval - trading approach is recommended [4][123] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the price centers of Shanghai and London lead futures were significantly lower than the same period in 2024. In Q1, Shanghai lead showed an inverted V - shaped trend due to supply - demand mismatch around the Spring Festival. In Q2, it dropped sharply due to the US tariff increase, then rebounded as the US dollar weakened and overseas structural risks emerged, along with the anticipation of peak - season demand stocking [15] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut path is the core variable, affected by trade protection and geopolitical conflicts. A potential rate cut in Q3 may briefly boost London lead, but the rebound is limited by demand. Trade protection may suppress China's lead export demand. Geopolitical risks may increase external - market volatility. Domestically, policy - driven consumption is crucial for lead demand. Although previous consumption - promotion policies had limited effects, future demand may rely more on policy support. Macroeconomic impacts are reflected in the internal - external price ratio [18][19] 3.3 Primary End 3.3.1 Lead Concentrate - Overseas, Q1 2025 lead - concentrate production was lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline of 1.4 million tons and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 3 million tons. The decline was due to factors like lower ore grades, weather disturbances, and mining difficulties. Although there are expectations of increased production from some mines this year, the overall increment is limited, and there are still risks of disturbances in H2. Domestically, lead - concentrate production increased in H1 2025, and imports were high. The annual production is expected to increase by 5 million tons, and the import growth rate is expected to be around 9%. However, the processing fee (TC) may decline in H2 due to tight overseas supply and trade - flow risks [23][33][34] 3.3.2 Primary Lead - Overseas, from January to April 2025, primary - lead production showed a recovery trend, mainly due to the low base in H1 2024. This year, new primary - smelting capacity is limited, and lead concentrate will mainly be consumed through imports. Domestically, from January to June, primary - lead production increased by 9.7% year - on - year. In H2, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new capacities. The annual production growth rate is expected to be around 2% [50][54][55] 3.4 Secondary End - In 2025, the over - capacity of waste - battery processing has intensified, and new capacities are squeezing traditional ones. Recycling merchants have increased their hoarding and advanced the hoarding time. From January to June, secondary - lead production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In H2, although there is an expectation of improved replacement demand, waste batteries will remain in short supply, and secondary - smelter profits will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of capacity reduction [62][63][68] 3.5 Demand End 3.5.1 Lead Batteries - In H1, battery - enterprise operations were below expectations. In H2, there may be a phased improvement in consumption. In terms of exports, although there was an improvement in H1, the overall annual export demand is expected to decline by 1% [75][100][104] 3.5.2 Domestic Terminal Demand - For electric two - wheelers, production increased in H1, mainly due to consumption - promotion policies. The new national standard and trade - in policies may stimulate demand, but lithium - battery substitution is a long - term risk. For automobiles, production increased in H1, but export may face pressure in H2, and lithium - battery substitution will also affect lead - battery demand. In the communication - base - station and energy - storage sectors, base - station equipment production decreased, while energy - storage demand was strong, and the lead - consumption growth rate is expected to reach 8% [82][87][92] 3.5.3 Overseas Demand - In 2025, overseas lead demand generally recovered, with an increase in Southeast Asia and a decline in India. China's lead - battery exports decreased in H1, and the annual export volume is expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weak overseas demand, high domestic costs, trade protection, and battery - factory expansion overseas [94][100][104] 3.6 Inventory End - In H1, LME lead inventory was high, indicating weak overseas consumption. Domestically, social inventory was at a relatively low level at the end of June. In H2, social inventory may fluctuate widely, and potential delivery risks should be noted due to tight ore supply. There is also a possibility of the import window opening intermittently, and attention should be paid to interval - trading opportunities based on the internal - external price ratio [108][112][121] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be reduced this year, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in H2, with a reference range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures are recommended, as well as positive spread arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads and interval trading based on the internal - external price ratio [4][122][123]

2025 年 06 月 27 日 铅：偏强运行 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17225 | 0.20% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2031.5 | 0.97% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 52643 | -3709 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 8483 | -305 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 51182 | 2838 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 151844 | -1129 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -35 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -22 | 1.5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -35 | -10 | 进口升贴水（美 | 105 | 0 | | ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View The report indicates that there may be pressure above the lead price, with a lead trend intensity of -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,445 yuan/ton, down 0.03%, and the trading volume was 37,771 lots, down 13,182 lots. The closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,022.5 dollars/ton, down 0.86%, and the trading volume was 3,197 lots, down 495 lots [1]. - **Positions**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 50,652 lots, down 538 lots, while the LME lead open interest was 142,830 lots, up 864 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -23.85 dollars/ton, down 2.77 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 61,170 tons, down 1,745 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 231,925 tons, up 725 tons [1]. - **Other Indicators**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit and loss of secondary lead was -19 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan/ton [1]. News China's official manufacturing PMI in March was 50.5, indicating the fastest expansion rate of the manufacturing industry in a year [1]. Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is -1, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].