年会预告 2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会 暨十五周年庆典&高工金球奖颁奖典礼 主办单位： 高工锂电、高工产研（GGII） 协办单位： 卡洛维德 总冠名： 海目星激光 年会特别赞助： 大族锂电 专场冠名： 欣旺达、英联复合集流体、逸飞激光、华视集团、欧科工业空调 金球奖全程特约赞助： 思客琦 时间&地点： 2025年11月18-20日 深圳前海华侨城JW万豪酒店 会议合作： 陈女士 13560731836（微信同号） 2025年上半年，国内两轮锂电池销量同比增长超过40%，成为锂电行业增速最快的细分市场之一。这一高增长的背后，是"锂代铅"趋势的加速推进。 近年来，锂电池以更强的性能、更优的性价比，正在逐步替代传统铅酸电池，重塑两轮车市场格局。 在供给端，星恒电源、比亚迪、新能安、亿纬锂能等锂电池巨头相继加码两轮市场。其中，星恒电池已覆盖48V、60V、72V、76V等多个电压平台， 满足从通勤到潮玩、从轻便摩托到电动摩托的多元化需求，为终端提供了更具性价比的解决方案。 市场层面，潮玩电自、旗舰电摩等新兴细分市场快速崛起，推动锂电渗透率持续提升。2024年潮玩电自消费热度高涨，2025年多家整车品牌密集推出 潮 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the Big Beautiful Act, economic stimulus will significantly boost demand. Lead prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, but the upside is limited due to the annual line resistance. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,001 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars [2]. - The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 96,618 lots, up 304 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,860 lots, up 517 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,086 tons, down 682 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 55,149 tons, up 1,846 tons; the LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons, up 10,125 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 145 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cash - 3 month spread was - 31.9 dollars/ton, up 0.88 dollars [2]. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,220 yuan, down 100 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) price was 16,710 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - The production enterprise number of recycled lead was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. Upstream Situation - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 77.87%, down 1.18%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.61 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons [2]. - The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries was 10,114.29 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 20,325 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The monthly automobile output was 264.2 thousand vehicles, down 3.8 thousand vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 164.7 thousand vehicles, up 7.3 thousand vehicles [2]. Industry News - Trump's plan to fire Powell caused a sell - off in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, and a surge in gold. After Trump's denial, the market stabilized [2]. - Trump's support rate dropped to the lowest level during his tenure [2]. - Trump hopes the oil price can drop further, and thinks $64 per barrel is a good price [2]. - US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said the Fed's actions are "very very slow" and inflation data has been good [2]. - The US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024 [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows a neutral to slightly pessimistic economic outlook, with a slight decline in manufacturing activity and cautious corporate hiring [2]. View Summary - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the Big Beautiful Act, economic stimulus will boost demand, and lead prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the upside is limited [2]. - The supply of primary lead has increased due to rising lead prices, and the supply of recycled lead has also increased slightly, but the raw material bottleneck remains [2]. - Market trading is light, and the support for lead prices from demand is limited. The operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces has declined [2]. - Overseas inventory is decreasing, while domestic inventory is increasing slightly due to the price difference between domestic and overseas markets [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate is decreasing, which will have a negative impact on the output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Great Beauty Act" and obvious economic stimulus for demand, lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and the annual line pressure still exists. Short - term investors can go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,005 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars [2]. - The spread between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 96,314 lots, up 1,494 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,343 lots, down 289 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 58,768 tons, up 3,638 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,149 tons, up 1,846 tons; the LME lead inventory was 260,950 tons, up 11,575 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 32.78 dollars/ton, up 0.84 dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,220 yuan, down 100 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 77.87%, down 1.18%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.61 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons [2]. - The monthly import volume of lead ore was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [2]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 10,164.29 yuan/ton, down 3.57 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,450 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,735.01 points, up 2.86 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [2]. - In June, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 6.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; from January to June, the output was 40.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [2]. - In June, the output of primary aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the output was 22.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The supply of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price, and the supply of recycled lead also increased slightly, but the supply increase was limited [2]. - The market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased [2]. - Overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased slightly, mainly due to the obvious price difference between domestic and foreign markets and obvious import processing opportunities. It is expected that the profit margin will decline in the future [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate began to decline, which will have a negative impact on the subsequent output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The main contract 2508 closed down 1.27%. Affected by overseas inventory reduction, weakening US dollar, and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. After the short - term positive factors faded, it showed a downward trend on Friday, and the price was still below the annual line [6]. - On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The profit of secondary lead increased slightly due to the slight increase in raw material supply, but the supply increment was limited in the short term. On the demand side, the market transaction was generally weak, and the support for lead price was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory and warehouse receipts increased slightly. The profit space of subsequent imports is expected to decline. The processing fee of lead concentrate has started to decline, which will have a negative impact on the production of secondary and primary lead [6]. - Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the economic stimulus demand is obvious, and the lead price is expected to continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate in the range of 16800 - 17600, with a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17900 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The main contract 2508 closed down 1.27%. Affected by overseas inventory reduction, weakening US dollar, and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. After the short - term positive factors faded, it showed a downward trend on Friday, and the price was still below the annual line. The probability of a slight decline next week is expected to increase [6]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The profit of secondary lead increased slightly due to the slight increase in raw material supply, but the supply increment was limited in the short term. On the demand side, the market transaction was generally weak, and the support for lead price was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory and warehouse receipts increased slightly. The profit space of subsequent imports is expected to decline. The processing fee of lead concentrate has started to decline, which will have a negative impact on the production of secondary and primary lead. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the economic stimulus demand is obvious, and the lead price is expected to continue to rise in the short term [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate in the range of 16800 - 17600, with a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead increased compared with last week, and the foreign futures price also increased, but the ratio decreased. As of July 11, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $2028 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active contract of lead was 17075 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.424 [8][12] - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and the foreign premium and discount also strengthened. As of July 11, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 145 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - 22.58 dollars per ton [14][16] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. As of July 10, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 59500 tons, an increase of 6400 tons; the total inventory of LME lead was 252375 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons. The number of warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead was 50633 tons, an increase of 4194 tons [30][35] 3. Industrial Situation - **Supply - Primary Lead**: The operating rate and output of primary lead enterprises increased. As of July 3, 2025, the average operating rate of the main producing areas of primary lead was 79.05%, an increase of 2.25% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 36300 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with last week [19][21] - **Supply - Secondary Lead**: The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises began to rise slightly. As of July 3, 2025, the output of the main producing areas of secondary lead in China was 17700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 37.86%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged. As of June 30, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [25][28][39] - **Supply - Trade**: The export of refined lead was obvious, and the import of refined lead increased significantly. In May, the export volume of refined lead was 5555 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.9% and a year - on - year increase of 118.41%. The total import volume of Chinese lead ingots (crude lead + refined lead) was 11830 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16% and a year - on - year increase of 103.51%. The import volume of refined lead was 4410.959 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.82% and a year - on - year increase of 3058.56%. The import volume of crude lead was 7420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.80% and a year - on - year increase of 31.16% [41][43] - **Demand - Processing Fee**: The processing fee of domestic lead concentrate decreased, and the processing fee of imported ore also decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the average national processing price of lead concentrate was 560 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC of lead concentrate (Pb60 imported) was - 50 dollars per thousand tons [45][47] - **Demand - Automobile**: The production and sales of automobiles showed a marginal decreasing trend. In May 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%; the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The production of passenger cars was 2.313 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%; the sales volume was 2.352 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. The production of commercial vehicles was 336000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; the sales volume was 335000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The production of new energy vehicles was 1.27 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 35%; the sales volume was 1.307 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.9%. The export of new energy vehicles was 212000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [49][51] - **Demand - Battery**: The price of batteries remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4082800. As of July 11, 2025, the average price of waste lead batteries (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group [53][57]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17230 | 55 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2044 | 6.5 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -20 | 10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 89789 | 1267 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -347 | -310 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 50608 | 2895 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 53303 | 1374 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 258075 | -1900 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17000 | 0 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17200 | 170 | | | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -230 | -55 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -23.04 | -83.34 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日) WBMS ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. Due to the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories will increase slightly while overseas inventories will decline again. Although lead prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, overall demand is gradually weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,175 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is -20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 89,789 lots, up 1,267 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -347 lots, down 310 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 50,608 tons, up 2,895 tons; the SHFE inventory is 53,303 tons, up 1,374 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,044 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 258,075 tons, down 1,900 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is -175 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is -23.04 dollars/ton, down 83.34 dollars; the price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,320 yuan, up 24 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, up 0.71%; the number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, down 0.8; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 79.05%, up 2.26%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.63 tons, up 0.05 tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is -50 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars/kiloton; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons; the global lead mine output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 560 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,167.86 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,550 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton; the Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,743.88 points, up 9.25 points; the monthly automobile output is 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly new energy vehicle output is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump announced that tariffs will start on August 1st without any extension, with a 50% tariff on imported copper and a possible up - to - 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, and will soon announce tariffs on semiconductors; the US Secretary of Commerce expects to issue 15 - 20 more tariff letters in the next two days, copper tariffs will be implemented in late July or August 1st, and the research on pharmaceutical and semiconductor tariffs will be completed by the end of the month; the US Treasury Secretary said that as of now, 100 billion dollars in tariffs have been collected, and it is expected to reach 300 billion dollars by the end of the year; the US Department of Defense announced to provide more defensive weapons to Ukraine [3]

| | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17210 | -85 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2057 | -6 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -10 | 20 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 86558 | -194 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -221 | -382 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 46814 | 375 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 53303 | 1374 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 263275 | -2625 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16975 | -50 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17140 | -120 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -235 | 35 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -24.63 | 1.84 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日) ...

沪铅市场周报 美国法案获得通过，沪铅宏观迎来利好 业 务 咨 询 研究员 添 加 客 服 :黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 u 行情回顾：本周沪铅期货震荡走强。从期货市场来看，沪期铅主力合约 2508表现活跃，本周涨幅 0.99%。市场交投活跃，受到海外去库，美元走弱和降息预期升温影响，沪铅价格震荡上行，整体 幅度较好，市场随着短期利好发酵上行后，周五出现回落迹象，本周价格依旧处于年线压制之下， 行情依旧拥有较好的延续性，连续两周上涨，技术形态出现了较好的多头趋势. u 行情展望：供应端原生铅炼厂受到铅价格上行影响，开工率上涨，产量上涨。铅价小幅回暖，再生 铅受到原材料小幅供应增加，同时铅价上行，利润小幅增加，再生铅整体开工率和供应有所增长， 但短期难以扭转原料瓶颈，供应增量有限。需求端看，市场成交整体偏淡，对铅价的支撑较为有限。 受"锂代铅"趋势及高温天气影响持续低迷，五省蓄电池企 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - After expected adjustments, the supply - demand contradiction this year is relatively reduced, and the import volume may decline, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in the second half of the year, with the reference operating range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Based on the expectation of strong supply and demand, it is recommended to focus on unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures. The monthly spread structure may change from C to B, and it is advisable to pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities. There is also an expectation of intermittent opening of the import window, and an interval - trading approach is recommended [4][123] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the price centers of Shanghai and London lead futures were significantly lower than the same period in 2024. In Q1, Shanghai lead showed an inverted V - shaped trend due to supply - demand mismatch around the Spring Festival. In Q2, it dropped sharply due to the US tariff increase, then rebounded as the US dollar weakened and overseas structural risks emerged, along with the anticipation of peak - season demand stocking [15] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut path is the core variable, affected by trade protection and geopolitical conflicts. A potential rate cut in Q3 may briefly boost London lead, but the rebound is limited by demand. Trade protection may suppress China's lead export demand. Geopolitical risks may increase external - market volatility. Domestically, policy - driven consumption is crucial for lead demand. Although previous consumption - promotion policies had limited effects, future demand may rely more on policy support. Macroeconomic impacts are reflected in the internal - external price ratio [18][19] 3.3 Primary End 3.3.1 Lead Concentrate - Overseas, Q1 2025 lead - concentrate production was lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline of 1.4 million tons and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 3 million tons. The decline was due to factors like lower ore grades, weather disturbances, and mining difficulties. Although there are expectations of increased production from some mines this year, the overall increment is limited, and there are still risks of disturbances in H2. Domestically, lead - concentrate production increased in H1 2025, and imports were high. The annual production is expected to increase by 5 million tons, and the import growth rate is expected to be around 9%. However, the processing fee (TC) may decline in H2 due to tight overseas supply and trade - flow risks [23][33][34] 3.3.2 Primary Lead - Overseas, from January to April 2025, primary - lead production showed a recovery trend, mainly due to the low base in H1 2024. This year, new primary - smelting capacity is limited, and lead concentrate will mainly be consumed through imports. Domestically, from January to June, primary - lead production increased by 9.7% year - on - year. In H2, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new capacities. The annual production growth rate is expected to be around 2% [50][54][55] 3.4 Secondary End - In 2025, the over - capacity of waste - battery processing has intensified, and new capacities are squeezing traditional ones. Recycling merchants have increased their hoarding and advanced the hoarding time. From January to June, secondary - lead production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In H2, although there is an expectation of improved replacement demand, waste batteries will remain in short supply, and secondary - smelter profits will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of capacity reduction [62][63][68] 3.5 Demand End 3.5.1 Lead Batteries - In H1, battery - enterprise operations were below expectations. In H2, there may be a phased improvement in consumption. In terms of exports, although there was an improvement in H1, the overall annual export demand is expected to decline by 1% [75][100][104] 3.5.2 Domestic Terminal Demand - For electric two - wheelers, production increased in H1, mainly due to consumption - promotion policies. The new national standard and trade - in policies may stimulate demand, but lithium - battery substitution is a long - term risk. For automobiles, production increased in H1, but export may face pressure in H2, and lithium - battery substitution will also affect lead - battery demand. In the communication - base - station and energy - storage sectors, base - station equipment production decreased, while energy - storage demand was strong, and the lead - consumption growth rate is expected to reach 8% [82][87][92] 3.5.3 Overseas Demand - In 2025, overseas lead demand generally recovered, with an increase in Southeast Asia and a decline in India. China's lead - battery exports decreased in H1, and the annual export volume is expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weak overseas demand, high domestic costs, trade protection, and battery - factory expansion overseas [94][100][104] 3.6 Inventory End - In H1, LME lead inventory was high, indicating weak overseas consumption. Domestically, social inventory was at a relatively low level at the end of June. In H2, social inventory may fluctuate widely, and potential delivery risks should be noted due to tight ore supply. There is also a possibility of the import window opening intermittently, and attention should be paid to interval - trading opportunities based on the internal - external price ratio [108][112][121] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be reduced this year, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in H2, with a reference range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures are recommended, as well as positive spread arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads and interval trading based on the internal - external price ratio [4][122][123]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape between lithium batteries and lead-acid batteries, highlighting the advantages of lithium batteries in terms of lightweight and high performance, despite their higher costs [1]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - In 2024, new safety standards for lithium-ion batteries used in electric bicycles and scooters will be implemented, emphasizing the importance of battery safety [2]. - The new standards include mandatory puncture tests to ensure batteries do not catch fire or explode under extreme conditions, which is expected to promote the healthy development of the lithium battery market for two-wheeled vehicles [3]. Group 2: Safety Enhancements - The PRO-M high-safety battery from BAK Battery incorporates a three-tier protection system to mitigate thermal runaway risks, utilizing high-temperature resistant materials and advanced manufacturing processes [4]. - BAK Battery has established a comprehensive safety system covering research, testing, and manufacturing, ensuring consistent quality through stringent parameter management [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The ongoing cost competition between lithium and lead-acid batteries is highlighted, with BAK focusing on domestic material substitution and efficiency improvements to lower costs [6]. - BAK Battery is targeting the electric motorcycle market, particularly in countries where electric motorcycles are a primary mode of transport, and plans to introduce small-capacity batteries for cost-sensitive rural markets [6]. - The trend towards high-end and intelligent battery solutions is noted, with increasing consumer demand for long-range, fast-charging, and smart battery management systems driving companies to enhance performance beyond mere safety compliance [6].