Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: The rating is not clearly interpretable from the Chinese - like symbols provided. Analysis indicates potential resistance at integer levels [1]. - Aluminum: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It is expected to be in short - term oscillation with resistance at the 21,000 yuan area [2]. - Alumina: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It is in a weak oscillation, testing the 3000 - yuan support level [2]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It follows the movement of Shanghai Aluminum [2]. - Zinc: The rating is not clearly interpretable. There is a mid - line idea of short - selling on rebounds [3]. - Lead: The rating is not clearly interpretable. In the short - term, it is seen as oscillating [5]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The rating is not clearly interpretable. Technically, nickel has a rebound intention, but the fundamental is weak, suggesting looking for short positions [6]. - Tin: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It is recommended to hold previous long positions and wait for profit realization, with caution when chasing up above 275,000 yuan [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It is in a relatively strong oscillation [8]. - Industrial Silicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable. There is a risk in going long, with the current focus on the 8300 - yuan/ton support level [9]. - Polysilicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [10]. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. It takes into account factors such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different metals show different trends, including oscillation, potential rebounds, or weakening trends. For example, some metals have clear resistance or support levels, and the market sentiment and trading volume also vary among different metals [1][2][3][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper increased its positions, and the afternoon session expanded the rebound amplitude. The spot copper price was 79,390 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium widened to 250 yuan. Attention was paid to the US monthly PCE indicator at night, and the resistance at integer levels was strong [1]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum had a narrow - range fluctuation, with spot discounts remaining in various regions. Downstream开工seasonally increased, and inventory was likely to be low this year. However, the inventory accumulation point was not clear, and it was expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area. Casting aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price at 20,300 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increased enterprise costs, with the potential for the cross - variety price difference between spot and Shanghai aluminum to narrow further. Alumina's operating capacity was at a historical high, with increasing industry inventory and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts. Supply surplus was emerging, and the spot index in various regions was declining. It was in a weak oscillation, testing the 3000 - yuan support level, and short - term long positions could be considered if the futures discount widened [2]. Zinc - SMM zinc social inventory rose to 144,500 tons, and LME zinc inventory was as low as 58,000 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio at 25%. The domestic downstream consumption was in the off - season, and there were concerns about pre - consumption. In September, attention was paid to whether the consumption would be weak during the peak season. The increase in the mine end was being realized, and there was still room to short - sell mine profits on the futures market. The mid - line idea of short - selling on rebounds remained unchanged [3]. Lead - LME lead had high inventory, suppressing the lead price. Factors such as pre - consumption, tariff impact, and lithium substitution for lead led to insufficient expected demand growth and lack of rebound momentum. Due to smelter production cuts and transportation restrictions, SMM lead social inventory decreased to 67,100 tons. The raw material shortage situation remained unchanged, and the cost provided support. The downward adjustment space was limited, and in the short - term, the directional signal was weak, with continuous capital outflows. The consumption expectation was difficult to improve fundamentally, and in September, attention was paid to the implementation of smelter maintenance [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, but the market trading was dull. Traders had a strong intention to support prices, and the premium range of mainstream electrolytic nickel remained at - 100 - 300 yuan/ton this week. Affected by the decline in the futures price, the downstream procurement volume increased this week. Pure nickel inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 41,000 tons, nickel - iron inventory remained at 33,000 tons for nearly a month and a half, and stainless - steel inventory remained unchanged at 934,000 tons, but the overall level was still high. Attention was paid to the end of the de - stocking. Technically, nickel had a rebound intention, but the fundamental was weak, and short positions were to be sought [6]. Tin - Shanghai tin increased its positions and rose sharply. Tin announced maintenance as expected. Overseas A1 semiconductor investment remained prosperous, with low LME tin inventory and high premiums. The domestic spot tin price was raised to 272,900 yuan, with a real - time discount of 350 yuan to the delivery month. Attention was paid to social inventory. Caution was needed when chasing up above 275,000 yuan, and attention was paid to capital changes. The tin price might test 280,000 - 282,000 yuan. Previous long positions were to be held, waiting for profit realization [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price adjusted downward, and market trading declined. Some miners sold goods when the futures price rose, and there were sporadic auctions. After the futures price dived, there was phased reluctance to sell. Downstream continuously adjusted their psychological price levels, and the replenishment behavior was generally cautious. The total market inventory slightly decreased by 700 tons to 142,000 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3000 tons to 47,000 tons, downstream inventory increased by nearly 3000 tons to 52,000 tons. After the price dropped rapidly, downstream took the opportunity to buy goods, and trader inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 43,000 tons. The speculation sentiment in the mid - stream decreased, and the transfer of goods was mainly from the upstream to the downstream. The latest Australian ore quotation was 925 US dollars, and the ore - end quotation slightly adjusted downward, matching the lithium price fluctuation. The mid - stream production decreased by 5% week - on - week. During the adjustment of the lithium carbonate futures price, the market focus was on the expectation of the 930 deadline after downstream shutdowns, which was difficult to verify in the short - term, and the fundamental had limited guidance on the price. Overall, it was in a relatively strong oscillation, and risk control was needed [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price was approaching the lower limit of the oscillation range. In terms of fundamentals, both supply and demand increased in August, and the restarted production capacity in Xinjiang released output. In September, due to industry self - discipline, the production schedule of polysilicon was expected to decline significantly, and the large - scale production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan might be postponed until after the dry season in September. It was expected that the supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon would intensify this month, and the spot price had been continuously adjusting downward recently. The futures market was currently focusing on the 8300 - yuan/ton support level. Next week, the policy expectation of polysilicon might ferment, but the fundamental support was weak, and the risk of going long was to be vigilant [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed up in an oscillating manner at around 49,500 yuan/ton. The weekly inventory data of polysilicon decreased rapidly, and downstream trading volume increased, mainly due to industry self - discipline. The production schedule of polysilicon in September was expected to decline significantly. Next week, the "anti - involution" policy expectation might ferment again, but before more details were disclosed, it was expected to maintain an oscillating trend [10].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the two-wheeled vehicle market, driven by the trend of replacing lead-acid batteries with lithium alternatives, which offer superior performance and cost-effectiveness [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - In the first half of 2025, domestic two-wheeled lithium battery sales increased by over 40% year-on-year, making it one of the fastest-growing segments in the lithium battery industry [1]. - The shift from lead-acid to lithium batteries is reshaping the two-wheeled vehicle market, with major players like Xingheng Power and BYD expanding their presence in this sector [2]. - Emerging markets such as trendy electric scooters and flagship electric motorcycles are driving the continuous increase in lithium battery penetration [2][4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Lithium batteries are outperforming lead-acid batteries in terms of energy density, lifespan, and low-temperature adaptability, leading to a significant transformation in the power structure of two-wheeled vehicles [4][5]. - Xingheng's third-generation "Golden Dual-Core" technology has achieved substantial breakthroughs in battery durability and environmental adaptability, with cycle lifespans exceeding 3000 times in normal conditions [5][7]. Group 3: Safety and Market Confidence - Enhanced safety measures and stricter regulations have improved consumer confidence in lithium battery safety, with a reported 44.7% decrease in electric two-wheeler fire incidents in the first half of the year [8][9]. - The implementation of national standards and certifications for electric bicycle lithium batteries has raised industry safety levels and market entry barriers [8]. Group 4: Market Leadership and Expansion - Leading companies like Xingheng are expanding their lithium battery applications across various scenarios, achieving over 70% product coverage in the electric vehicle market [10][13]. - Xingheng's lithium battery sales grew by over 50% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing the industry average [13]. Group 5: International Market Opportunities - As the domestic market matures, Chinese two-wheeled lithium battery products are increasingly penetrating international markets, contributing to a 25.14% year-on-year increase in lithium battery exports [14][15]. - Xingheng has established a strong presence in Europe and Southeast Asia, with significant progress in markets like Colombia, where it has achieved stable monthly shipments [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the Big Beautiful Act, economic stimulus will significantly boost demand. Lead prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, but the upside is limited due to the annual line resistance. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,001 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars [2]. - The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 96,618 lots, up 304 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,860 lots, up 517 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,086 tons, down 682 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 55,149 tons, up 1,846 tons; the LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons, up 10,125 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 145 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cash - 3 month spread was - 31.9 dollars/ton, up 0.88 dollars [2]. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,220 yuan, down 100 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) price was 16,710 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - The production enterprise number of recycled lead was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. Upstream Situation - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 77.87%, down 1.18%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.61 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons [2]. - The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries was 10,114.29 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 20,325 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The monthly automobile output was 264.2 thousand vehicles, down 3.8 thousand vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 164.7 thousand vehicles, up 7.3 thousand vehicles [2]. Industry News - Trump's plan to fire Powell caused a sell - off in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, and a surge in gold. After Trump's denial, the market stabilized [2]. - Trump's support rate dropped to the lowest level during his tenure [2]. - Trump hopes the oil price can drop further, and thinks $64 per barrel is a good price [2]. - US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said the Fed's actions are "very very slow" and inflation data has been good [2]. - The US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024 [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows a neutral to slightly pessimistic economic outlook, with a slight decline in manufacturing activity and cautious corporate hiring [2]. View Summary - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the Big Beautiful Act, economic stimulus will boost demand, and lead prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the upside is limited [2]. - The supply of primary lead has increased due to rising lead prices, and the supply of recycled lead has also increased slightly, but the raw material bottleneck remains [2]. - Market trading is light, and the support for lead prices from demand is limited. The operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces has declined [2]. - Overseas inventory is decreasing, while domestic inventory is increasing slightly due to the price difference between domestic and overseas markets [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate is decreasing, which will have a negative impact on the output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Great Beauty Act" and obvious economic stimulus for demand, lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and the annual line pressure still exists. Short - term investors can go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,005 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars [2]. - The spread between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 96,314 lots, up 1,494 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,343 lots, down 289 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 58,768 tons, up 3,638 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,149 tons, up 1,846 tons; the LME lead inventory was 260,950 tons, up 11,575 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 32.78 dollars/ton, up 0.84 dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,220 yuan, down 100 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 77.87%, down 1.18%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.61 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons [2]. - The monthly import volume of lead ore was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [2]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 10,164.29 yuan/ton, down 3.57 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,450 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,735.01 points, up 2.86 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [2]. - In June, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 6.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; from January to June, the output was 40.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [2]. - In June, the output of primary aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the output was 22.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The supply of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price, and the supply of recycled lead also increased slightly, but the supply increase was limited [2]. - The market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased [2]. - Overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased slightly, mainly due to the obvious price difference between domestic and foreign markets and obvious import processing opportunities. It is expected that the profit margin will decline in the future [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate began to decline, which will have a negative impact on the subsequent output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The main contract 2508 closed down 1.27%. Affected by overseas inventory reduction, weakening US dollar, and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. After the short - term positive factors faded, it showed a downward trend on Friday, and the price was still below the annual line [6]. - On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The profit of secondary lead increased slightly due to the slight increase in raw material supply, but the supply increment was limited in the short term. On the demand side, the market transaction was generally weak, and the support for lead price was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory and warehouse receipts increased slightly. The profit space of subsequent imports is expected to decline. The processing fee of lead concentrate has started to decline, which will have a negative impact on the production of secondary and primary lead [6]. - Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the economic stimulus demand is obvious, and the lead price is expected to continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate in the range of 16800 - 17600, with a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17900 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The main contract 2508 closed down 1.27%. Affected by overseas inventory reduction, weakening US dollar, and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. After the short - term positive factors faded, it showed a downward trend on Friday, and the price was still below the annual line. The probability of a slight decline next week is expected to increase [6]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The profit of secondary lead increased slightly due to the slight increase in raw material supply, but the supply increment was limited in the short term. On the demand side, the market transaction was generally weak, and the support for lead price was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory and warehouse receipts increased slightly. The profit space of subsequent imports is expected to decline. The processing fee of lead concentrate has started to decline, which will have a negative impact on the production of secondary and primary lead. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the economic stimulus demand is obvious, and the lead price is expected to continue to rise in the short term [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate in the range of 16800 - 17600, with a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead increased compared with last week, and the foreign futures price also increased, but the ratio decreased. As of July 11, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $2028 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active contract of lead was 17075 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.424 [8][12] - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and the foreign premium and discount also strengthened. As of July 11, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 145 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - 22.58 dollars per ton [14][16] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. As of July 10, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 59500 tons, an increase of 6400 tons; the total inventory of LME lead was 252375 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons. The number of warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead was 50633 tons, an increase of 4194 tons [30][35] 3. Industrial Situation - **Supply - Primary Lead**: The operating rate and output of primary lead enterprises increased. As of July 3, 2025, the average operating rate of the main producing areas of primary lead was 79.05%, an increase of 2.25% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 36300 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with last week [19][21] - **Supply - Secondary Lead**: The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises began to rise slightly. As of July 3, 2025, the output of the main producing areas of secondary lead in China was 17700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 37.86%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged. As of June 30, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [25][28][39] - **Supply - Trade**: The export of refined lead was obvious, and the import of refined lead increased significantly. In May, the export volume of refined lead was 5555 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.9% and a year - on - year increase of 118.41%. The total import volume of Chinese lead ingots (crude lead + refined lead) was 11830 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16% and a year - on - year increase of 103.51%. The import volume of refined lead was 4410.959 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.82% and a year - on - year increase of 3058.56%. The import volume of crude lead was 7420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.80% and a year - on - year increase of 31.16% [41][43] - **Demand - Processing Fee**: The processing fee of domestic lead concentrate decreased, and the processing fee of imported ore also decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the average national processing price of lead concentrate was 560 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC of lead concentrate (Pb60 imported) was - 50 dollars per thousand tons [45][47] - **Demand - Automobile**: The production and sales of automobiles showed a marginal decreasing trend. In May 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%; the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The production of passenger cars was 2.313 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%; the sales volume was 2.352 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. The production of commercial vehicles was 336000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; the sales volume was 335000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The production of new energy vehicles was 1.27 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 35%; the sales volume was 1.307 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.9%. The export of new energy vehicles was 212000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [49][51] - **Demand - Battery**: The price of batteries remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4082800. As of July 11, 2025, the average price of waste lead batteries (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group [53][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly. Domestic inventory will increase slightly, while overseas inventory will decline again. Although lead prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, overall demand is gradually decreasing. It is recommended to go short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,230 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 2,044 US dollars/ton, up 6.5 US dollars. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 89,789 lots, up 1,267 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 347 lots, down 310 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 50,608 tons, up 2,895 tons. The SHFE inventory is 53,303 tons, up 1,374 tons; the LME lead inventory is 258,075 tons, down 1,900 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 230 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 23.04 US dollars/ton, down 83.34 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,320 yuan, up 24 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points. The monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 79.05%, up 2.26 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.63 tons, up 0.05 tons [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 50 US dollars/kiloton, down 10 US dollars. The global lead mine production by ILZSG is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons. The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons. The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 560 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The average market price of waste batteries is 10,191.07 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan tertiary industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,726.54 points, down 17.34 points. The monthly automobile production is 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons. The monthly new - energy vehicle production is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump sent tariff letters to 8 countries, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff. The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on interest - rate cuts. The EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1st. The White House trade advisor said that Apple thought it was too big to be tariffed. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates again [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, primary lead smelters' operating rates and output increased due to rising lead prices. Recycled lead also saw a slight increase in supply and profit, but the raw - material bottleneck was difficult to reverse in the short term, so the supply increase was limited. On the demand side, market transactions were weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rates of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. Overseas inventory declined again, while domestic inventory increased slightly, mainly due to the obvious price difference between home and abroad, creating an arbitrage opportunity. The processing fee of lead concentrate began to decline, which would have a negative impact on the output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. Due to the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories will increase slightly while overseas inventories will decline again. Although lead prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, overall demand is gradually weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,175 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is -20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 89,789 lots, up 1,267 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -347 lots, down 310 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 50,608 tons, up 2,895 tons; the SHFE inventory is 53,303 tons, up 1,374 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,044 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 258,075 tons, down 1,900 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is -175 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is -23.04 dollars/ton, down 83.34 dollars; the price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,320 yuan, up 24 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, up 0.71%; the number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, down 0.8; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 79.05%, up 2.26%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.63 tons, up 0.05 tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is -50 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars/kiloton; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons; the global lead mine output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 560 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,167.86 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,550 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton; the Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,743.88 points, up 9.25 points; the monthly automobile output is 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly new energy vehicle output is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump announced that tariffs will start on August 1st without any extension, with a 50% tariff on imported copper and a possible up - to - 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, and will soon announce tariffs on semiconductors; the US Secretary of Commerce expects to issue 15 - 20 more tariff letters in the next two days, copper tariffs will be implemented in late July or August 1st, and the research on pharmaceutical and semiconductor tariffs will be completed by the end of the month; the US Treasury Secretary said that as of now, 100 billion dollars in tariffs have been collected, and it is expected to reach 300 billion dollars by the end of the year; the US Department of Defense announced to provide more defensive weapons to Ukraine [3]

| | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17210 | -85 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2057 | -6 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -10 | 20 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 86558 | -194 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -221 | -382 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 46814 | 375 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 53303 | 1374 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 263275 | -2625 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16975 | -50 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17140 | -120 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -235 | 35 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -24.63 | 1.84 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead futures was active, with a weekly increase of 0.99%. The market trading was active. Affected by overseas de - stocking, the weakening dollar, and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. The overall amplitude was good. After the market rose with the short - term positive fermentation, there were signs of a decline on Friday. The price was still under the annual - line suppression, and the market continued to rise for two consecutive weeks, showing a good long - term trend [5]. - In terms of supply, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The supply of recycled lead raw materials increased slightly, and the profit increased slightly with the rising lead price. The overall operating rate and supply of recycled lead increased, but it was difficult to reverse the raw material bottleneck in the short term, and the supply increase was limited. In terms of demand, the overall market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory declined again, while domestic inventory increased slightly, and warehouse receipts increased, mainly due to the obvious price difference between the domestic and overseas markets, resulting in an arbitrage space. The lead concentrate processing fee began to decline, which would have a negative impact on the subsequent production of recycled lead and primary lead. In general, the overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. Affected by the marginal decline of national subsidies for consumption, domestic inventory will increase slightly, and overseas inventory will decline again. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the demand for economic stimulus is obvious, and lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term [5]. - It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate mainly, with a fluctuation range of 16,900 - 17,600 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market trend**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2508 rose 0.99%, and the market trading was active. Affected by overseas de - stocking, the weakening dollar, and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, the price fluctuated upward. After rising with the short - term positive fermentation, there were signs of a decline on Friday. The price was still under the annual - line suppression, showing a good long - term trend [5]. - **Market outlook**: Supply is expected to increase slightly next week. Due to the marginal decline of national subsidies for consumption, domestic inventory will increase slightly, and overseas inventory will decline again. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the demand for economic stimulus is obvious, and lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term [5]. - **Operation suggestions**: The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuates mainly, with a fluctuation range of 16,900 - 17,600 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price comparison**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead increased compared with last week, and the overseas futures price also increased, while the ratio decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $2,058.5 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active contract of lead was 17,295 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.40 [7][11]. - **Premium and discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount weakened, and the overseas premium and discount also weakened. As of July 4, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 270 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $26.47 per ton [13][15]. - **Inventory situation**: Overseas lead inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. As of June 26, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 53,100 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 265,900 tons, a decrease of 7,525 tons. The number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was 46,439 tons, an increase of 1,161 tons [28][32]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply side - Primary lead**: The operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. As of June 26, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 76.8%, an increase of 2.96% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared with last week [18][20]. - **Supply side - Recycled lead**: The capacity utilization rate and output of recycled lead enterprises decreased. The main reason was the decrease in waste lead recycling. Currently in the off - season, there were fewer scrap batteries, resulting in passive production cuts. As of June 26, 2025, the domestic output of recycled lead in major producing areas was 17,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 600 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 36.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.65% [24][27]. - **Supply side - Number of enterprises**: As of May 31, 2025, the total number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, remaining unchanged [34][36]. - **Supply side - Import and export**: The export of refined lead was obvious, and the import of refined lead increased significantly. The overseas lead ingot price was higher than the domestic price, and the domestic processing fee was low, resulting in an arbitrage space. In May, the export volume of refined lead was 5,555 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.9% and a year - on - year increase of 118.41%; the total import volume of Chinese lead ingots (crude lead + refined lead) was 11,830 tons, a month - on - month increase of 580 tons, an increase of 5.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 6,020 tons, an increase of 103.51%. The import volume of refined lead was 4,410.959 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.82% and a year - on - year increase of 3058.56%. Among them, the import from Kazakhstan was 3,620.889 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.25%; the import from the Philippines was 402.789 tons, a month - on - month increase of 294.78%. The import volume of crude lead was 7,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons, an increase of 13.80%, and a year - on - year increase of 1,760 tons, an increase of 31.16% [38][40]. - **Demand side - Processing fee**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat, and the import processing fee also remained flat. The low processing fee led to an arbitrage space, and the market began to import lead for processing and then export it. As of June 27, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was 640 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $40 per thousand tons [42][44]. - **Demand side - Automobile production and sales**: Automobile production and sales showed a marginal decline. In May 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%; the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. For passenger cars, the production was 2.313 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%; the sales volume was 2.352 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. For commercial vehicles, the production was 336,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; the sales volume was 335,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. For new energy vehicles, the production was 1.27 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 35%; the sales volume was 1.307 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.9%, and the new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.7% of the total new - vehicle sales. The automobile export was 551,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. Among them, the new - energy vehicle export was 212,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [46][48]. - **Demand side - Battery and charging piles**: The battery price remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4,082,800. As of July 4, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group [50][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - After expected adjustments, the supply - demand contradiction this year is relatively reduced, and the import volume may decline, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in the second half of the year, with the reference operating range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Based on the expectation of strong supply and demand, it is recommended to focus on unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures. The monthly spread structure may change from C to B, and it is advisable to pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities. There is also an expectation of intermittent opening of the import window, and an interval - trading approach is recommended [4][123] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the price centers of Shanghai and London lead futures were significantly lower than the same period in 2024. In Q1, Shanghai lead showed an inverted V - shaped trend due to supply - demand mismatch around the Spring Festival. In Q2, it dropped sharply due to the US tariff increase, then rebounded as the US dollar weakened and overseas structural risks emerged, along with the anticipation of peak - season demand stocking [15] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut path is the core variable, affected by trade protection and geopolitical conflicts. A potential rate cut in Q3 may briefly boost London lead, but the rebound is limited by demand. Trade protection may suppress China's lead export demand. Geopolitical risks may increase external - market volatility. Domestically, policy - driven consumption is crucial for lead demand. Although previous consumption - promotion policies had limited effects, future demand may rely more on policy support. Macroeconomic impacts are reflected in the internal - external price ratio [18][19] 3.3 Primary End 3.3.1 Lead Concentrate - Overseas, Q1 2025 lead - concentrate production was lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline of 1.4 million tons and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 3 million tons. The decline was due to factors like lower ore grades, weather disturbances, and mining difficulties. Although there are expectations of increased production from some mines this year, the overall increment is limited, and there are still risks of disturbances in H2. Domestically, lead - concentrate production increased in H1 2025, and imports were high. The annual production is expected to increase by 5 million tons, and the import growth rate is expected to be around 9%. However, the processing fee (TC) may decline in H2 due to tight overseas supply and trade - flow risks [23][33][34] 3.3.2 Primary Lead - Overseas, from January to April 2025, primary - lead production showed a recovery trend, mainly due to the low base in H1 2024. This year, new primary - smelting capacity is limited, and lead concentrate will mainly be consumed through imports. Domestically, from January to June, primary - lead production increased by 9.7% year - on - year. In H2, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new capacities. The annual production growth rate is expected to be around 2% [50][54][55] 3.4 Secondary End - In 2025, the over - capacity of waste - battery processing has intensified, and new capacities are squeezing traditional ones. Recycling merchants have increased their hoarding and advanced the hoarding time. From January to June, secondary - lead production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In H2, although there is an expectation of improved replacement demand, waste batteries will remain in short supply, and secondary - smelter profits will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of capacity reduction [62][63][68] 3.5 Demand End 3.5.1 Lead Batteries - In H1, battery - enterprise operations were below expectations. In H2, there may be a phased improvement in consumption. In terms of exports, although there was an improvement in H1, the overall annual export demand is expected to decline by 1% [75][100][104] 3.5.2 Domestic Terminal Demand - For electric two - wheelers, production increased in H1, mainly due to consumption - promotion policies. The new national standard and trade - in policies may stimulate demand, but lithium - battery substitution is a long - term risk. For automobiles, production increased in H1, but export may face pressure in H2, and lithium - battery substitution will also affect lead - battery demand. In the communication - base - station and energy - storage sectors, base - station equipment production decreased, while energy - storage demand was strong, and the lead - consumption growth rate is expected to reach 8% [82][87][92] 3.5.3 Overseas Demand - In 2025, overseas lead demand generally recovered, with an increase in Southeast Asia and a decline in India. China's lead - battery exports decreased in H1, and the annual export volume is expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weak overseas demand, high domestic costs, trade protection, and battery - factory expansion overseas [94][100][104] 3.6 Inventory End - In H1, LME lead inventory was high, indicating weak overseas consumption. Domestically, social inventory was at a relatively low level at the end of June. In H2, social inventory may fluctuate widely, and potential delivery risks should be noted due to tight ore supply. There is also a possibility of the import window opening intermittently, and attention should be paid to interval - trading opportunities based on the internal - external price ratio [108][112][121] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be reduced this year, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in H2, with a reference range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures are recommended, as well as positive spread arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads and interval trading based on the internal - external price ratio [4][122][123]