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2025Q3 美国 GDP 数据点评:美国经济高增速预计难以持续
Orient Securities· 2025-12-28 05:15
Economic Growth Insights - The US GDP for Q3 2025 showed a significant growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%[7] - Personal consumption contributed 3.5% to GDP growth, up from 2.5% in the previous quarter, indicating strong consumer spending[7] - The final sales of domestic private purchasers recorded a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, reflecting resilient domestic demand despite economic uncertainties[7] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a slight contraction of -0.3%, with non-residential construction and residential investment declining by -6.3% and -5.1%, respectively[7] - AI-related investments remain a key driver, with equipment and intellectual property investments growing at 5.4%, although this is a significant drop from earlier in the year[7] - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth is estimated at approximately 0.6% for Q3, but the growth rate is expected to slow down[7] Employment and Economic Risks - The job market shows signs of significant weakness, with a three-month moving average of new jobs at only 22,000, indicating a potential recession[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a level historically associated with economic downturns[7] - Risks of inflation rebounding and the economy slipping into recession are highlighted as major concerns for future growth[4]
美国三季度GDP增速4.3%超预期 通胀温和回升引关注
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 14:43
政府支出:联邦政府与州和地方政府支出均实现增长,其中联邦政府支出以国防消费为主要支撑,州和 地方政府支出则聚焦消费性支出。 新华财经北京12月23日电 (王晓伟)美国商务部经济分析局(BEA)23日发布数据显示,2025年第三 季度(7月-9月)美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算增长4.3%,较第二季度3.8%的增速加快, 美国经济延续扩张。 受此前美国联邦政府停摆影响,本次三季度GDP首次估算报告替代了原定于10月30日发布的初步估算及 11月26日发布的二次估算。数据显示,三季度美国经济增长主要得益于消费支出、出口和政府支出的增 加,部分抵消了投资下降的拖累;同时进口(GDP核算中按减法计入)减少,对经济增长形成正向贡 献。 从关联指标来看,三季度实际私人国内最终销售额(消费支出与私人固定投资之和)增长3.0%,略高 于二季度2.9%的增速;实际国内总收入(GDI)增长2.4%,较二季度修正后的2.6%小幅放缓;GDP与 GDI的平均值增长3.4%,高于二季度修正后的3.2%,反映经济增长基础相对稳固。 消费支出:作为经济增长的核心引擎,三季度消费支出同比加速增长。服务消费中,医疗保健(含门诊 及住 ...