宏 观 研 究 "K 型分化"的边际收敛 [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) ——2025 年 Q4 美国 GDP 数据点评 本报告导读： 2025Q4 美国经济主要受政府关门拖累，总体韧性犹在，并展现出"K型分化"的收 敛迹象，这明显提升了"再通胀"的概率。关注白宫在推动替代性关税框架的过程 中，对企业关税转嫁行为的影响。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 2025 年 Q4 美国经济：受政府关门拖累明显，但韧性犹在 美国经济四季度展现出"K 型分化"的收敛迹象 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.21 | | 021-23219820 | | --- | --- | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38674711 | | | zhangjianyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 M2 增速：创新高的背后 2026.02.14 超级核心通胀压力仍 ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy experienced a significant slowdown in Q4 2025, with GDP growth falling to 1.4% from 4.4% in Q3 2025, contrary to expectations of 3% growth [1] - For the full year 2025, GDP growth was 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024, largely due to declines in government spending [2] Government Spending and Private Demand - Federal spending decreased at a 5.1% annualized rate, with the October-November government shutdown estimated to have reduced Q4 growth by about one percentage point [2] - Despite the decline in government spending, private domestic demand grew by 2.4% in Q4, indicating resilience in consumer and business activities [3] Consumer Behavior and Business Investment - Consumer spending remained strong, particularly in services like health care and travel, rather than in consumer goods [4] - Business investment saw an increase, especially in "information processing equipment," which is related to AI infrastructure [4] Inflation Trends - The PCE report indicated inflation at 2.9% for the quarter, with core PCE at 2.7%, suggesting that inflation remains a concern [5] - Core PCE rose by 0.4% in December, leading to a year-over-year rate of 3.0%, which may affect expectations for future interest rate cuts [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The overall data supports a "soft landing" narrative, indicating that while growth is slowing, it remains positive, and inflation is easing without collapsing [6] - The mixed inflation data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a patient approach rather than implementing aggressive rate cuts in the near term [6]

Economic Growth Insights - The US GDP for Q3 2025 showed a significant growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%[7] - Personal consumption contributed 3.5% to GDP growth, up from 2.5% in the previous quarter, indicating strong consumer spending[7] - The final sales of domestic private purchasers recorded a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, reflecting resilient domestic demand despite economic uncertainties[7] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a slight contraction of -0.3%, with non-residential construction and residential investment declining by -6.3% and -5.1%, respectively[7] - AI-related investments remain a key driver, with equipment and intellectual property investments growing at 5.4%, although this is a significant drop from earlier in the year[7] - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth is estimated at approximately 0.6% for Q3, but the growth rate is expected to slow down[7] Employment and Economic Risks - The job market shows signs of significant weakness, with a three-month moving average of new jobs at only 22,000, indicating a potential recession[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a level historically associated with economic downturns[7] - Risks of inflation rebounding and the economy slipping into recession are highlighted as major concerns for future growth[4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy continued to expand in Q3 2025, with real GDP growth accelerating to 4.3% from 3.8% in Q2, driven by increased consumer spending, exports, and government spending, despite a decline in investment [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, accelerated in Q3, with notable contributions from healthcare services and other services such as international travel and legal services [2] - In terms of goods consumption, entertainment products and transportation tools, along with non-durable goods (notably prescription drugs), showed growth, supported by data from the Census Bureau's Quarterly Services Survey and Monthly Retail Trade Survey [2] Group 2: Exports and Imports - Exports turned positive in Q3, with capital goods (excluding automobiles) and non-durable consumer goods leading the growth, while service exports were driven by business services [2] - The decline in imports narrowed, with a reduction in goods imports (primarily non-durable goods) and an increase in service imports, particularly in business services [2] Group 3: Government Spending - Both federal and state/local government spending increased, with federal spending primarily supported by defense expenditures, while state and local governments focused on consumption-related spending [2] Group 4: Investment - Investment saw a reduced decline, primarily due to a decrease in private inventory investment, with wholesale trade and manufacturing inventory adjustments being significant factors [2] Group 5: Price Levels and Inflation - The domestic purchase price index rose by 3.4% year-on-year in Q3, up from 2.0% in Q2, indicating a moderate increase in inflationary pressures [3] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.8%, while the core PCE index (excluding food and energy) rose by 2.9%, reflecting a slight uptick in inflation but remaining within a manageable range [3] Group 6: Corporate Profits - U.S. corporate current production profits increased by $166.1 billion in Q3, a significant rise compared to the $68 billion increase in Q2, although some final settlement agreements partially offset corporate profits [3]