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【广发宏观陈嘉荔】关税对美国通胀的影响继续有所体现
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-08-13 07:47
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of the U.S. inflation rate in July, with a notable rebound in core inflation, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments [1][6][22]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value and slightly below market expectations of 2.8%. The core CPI rose by 3.1%, surpassing the previous value of 2.9% and the expected 3.0% [1][6][9]. - The core goods prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of recovery. Various core goods categories, such as furniture (+0.7% month-on-month) and shoes (+1.4% month-on-month), showed price increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs [2][13][14]. - Core services saw a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, higher than the previous 0.3% [4][18]. Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The article highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have become more evident in July, although the overall inflation rebound has been moderate due to product differentiation. Future impacts remain uncertain, with varying estimates on how quickly tariffs affect consumer prices [3][14][15]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions on monetary policy direction are noted, with some members advocating for a cautious approach while others support a shift towards a neutral interest rate stance, indicating differing views on inflation risks and economic slowdown [5][20][21]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased, with the probability rising to 93.4% from 85.9%. This led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in major stock indices, reflecting a favorable environment for emerging market assets [5][22].
美国6月CPI证实关税传导,商品通胀时隔4个月再抬头,核心PCE可能更“猛”?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-16 08:58
关税传导效应已开始显现,美国6月CPI数据在表面疲软背后隐藏着关键的结构性变化。 尽管6月核心CPI月环比仅上涨0.2%(低于预期),但核心商品价格出现自2月以来首次明显上涨,家庭用品、服装等受关税影响的品类价格大幅上涨。各大 投行目前预计核心PCE将显著强于核心CPI,可能达到0.29%-0.34%的月环比涨幅,这将削弱美联储今年降息的理由,强化其维持当前政策立场的决心。 家庭用品价格月环比上涨0.98%,为2022年1月以来最大涨幅; 服装价格上涨0.43%; 娱乐商品价格上涨0.77%; 核心商品上涨的同时,核心服务(比如住宿、机票等)价格下降。其中,酒店住宿价格连续4个月下降,机票价格连续5个月下降。美银表示,从银行的消费 数据和机场安检人数来看,需求正在放缓。 巴克莱估计,美国贸易加权有效关税率为14-15%,远高于去年的2.5%,预计约50%的关税成本将传导至价格,这一假设与美联储调查一致。 表面疲软掩盖结构性变化 6月CPI数据初看温和:核心CPI月环比上涨0.23%,略低于市场预期的0.25%-0.30%,年同比从2.8%升至2.9%。然而,这一表面的疲软掩盖了重要的结构性变 化。 据追风交易 ...