Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first three quarters of 2025 at 1309.04 billion, 646.27 billion, and 646.81 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of +6.32%, +6.25%, and +6.42% [1][7] - In Q3 alone, revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 398.10 billion, 192.24 billion, and 192.90 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of +0.35%, +0.48%, and +0.95%, indicating a slowdown in growth but performance in line with expectations [1][3] - The company’s cash collection in Q3 increased by +2.61% year-on-year, and the ending contract liabilities decreased by 21.97% year-on-year, although they increased by 22.42 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter, showcasing strong cash collection capabilities [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Moutai liquor and other series in Q3 was 349.24 billion and 41.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of +7.3% for Moutai liquor and a decline of -34.0% for other series [2] - For the first three quarters, Moutai liquor revenue grew by +9.3%, while other series saw a decline of -7.8% [2] - Direct sales and wholesale channel revenues in Q3 were 155.46 billion and 235.00 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -14.9% and +14.4% [2] Profitability Metrics - In Q3, the company’s gross margin and net margin slightly improved year-on-year to 91.3% and 48.3% respectively [3] - The sales, management, and financial expense ratios in Q3 were 3.1%, 4.5%, and -0.4% year-on-year [3] - The company benefits from an increased proportion of Moutai liquor sales, leading to stable profitability despite external pressures [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 72.87, 77.31, and 82.70 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The target price is set at 1822 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 times for 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai is set to launch a limited edition product on August 8, 2023, to commemorate the 70th anniversary of its Five-Star trademark, with a planned price of 7000 yuan per bottle [1][2]. Product Launch - The new product will be limited to 25,568 bottles, each featuring a unique identity code [1]. - The Five-Star trademark was first introduced on May 1, 1954, and has since become a significant symbol for the brand [1]. - Previous commemorative products include a series launched in 2011 for the 60th anniversary of the distillery, limited to 10,000 sets, and a collection during the 2010 Shanghai World Expo [1]. Recent Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.71% [3]. - The total profit reached 119.64 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.41% year-on-year [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% compared to the previous year [3]. Revenue Breakdown - Moutai liquor generated revenue of 145.93 billion yuan, a growth of 15.28% [3]. - Other series of liquor achieved revenue of 24.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.65% [3]. - Domestic revenue was 165.42 billion yuan, growing by 15.79%, while international revenue reached 5.19 billion yuan, up 19.27% [3]. Share Buyback - As of July 2025, Guizhou Moutai has repurchased 3.45 million shares, accounting for 0.2748% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of 5.30 billion yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2][3] - The company plans a modest increase in domestic market supply for 2025, aiming to stabilize market prices while addressing diverse consumer needs through new product launches [7][10] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 91.93% and a net margin of 52.27%, indicating stable profitability despite slight declines in these metrics [6] - The company’s revenue from Moutai liquor and other series reached 145.93 billion yuan and 24.68 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.28% and 19.65% [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 74.54 yuan, with a net profit forecast of 93.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.6% [12][10] Product and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its distribution network for the sauce-flavored liquor, with wholesale and direct sales revenues increasing by 19.73% and 11.32% respectively in 2024 [5] - The company plans to adjust its product offerings in 2025, focusing on high-value products and enhancing its presence in the catering market [8][9] Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, with a focus on maintaining the market price stability of its flagship product, the 53°500ml Moutai liquor [10] - The company is actively pursuing consumer engagement strategies to adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer preferences [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company achieved a strong performance in 2024, with total revenue and net profit reaching 174.14 billion and 86.23 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 16% and 15% [5] - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, maintaining high cash dividends, with a total payout of 64.67 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, with expected EPS of 75.23 yuan [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company’s stock price is currently at 1568.88 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 1970.8 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue and net profit were 51.02 billion and 25.40 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 13% and 16% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 91.93% and 52.27%, with slight decreases compared to the previous year [5] Product Performance - Revenue from Moutai liquor and other series reached 145.93 billion and 24.68 billion yuan in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 15% and 20% [6] - The sales volume of Moutai liquor increased by 10%, while the average price rose by 5% [6] Channel Performance - Revenue from wholesale and direct sales channels was 95.77 billion and 74.84 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 20% and 11% [7] - International revenue surpassed 5 billion yuan for the first time, indicating successful internationalization efforts [8] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 9.1% for 2025, with net profit expected to grow by 9.6% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the characteristics that high-quality Chinese assets should possess, highlighting Guizhou Moutai's strong performance as a benchmark for investor confidence in a volatile global market [1][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 170.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 34.671 billion yuan, which represents 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2][3]. Product Performance - Moutai liquor generated revenue of 145.928 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 15.28% increase, while other series of liquor achieved 24.684 billion yuan, growing by 19.65% [3]. - The core product, Moutai liquor, continues to show stable revenue growth, while other series are emerging as new growth engines for the company [2][3]. Channel Optimization - Guizhou Moutai has developed a diversified sales channel system, with direct sales revenue reaching 74.843 billion yuan, an increase of 11.32% [4]. - The "i Moutai" digital marketing platform generated 20.024 billion yuan in revenue, enhancing consumer interaction and brand loyalty [4]. Brand Value and Internationalization - In 2024, Guizhou Moutai's brand value reached 87.298 billion USD, ranking first among liquor brands in the Kantar "BrandZ Most Valuable Chinese Brands" list [5]. - The company has accelerated its internationalization efforts, achieving over 5 billion yuan in export revenue for the first time, with high-value Moutai liquor exports increasing by over 40% [6][7]. Cultural Promotion - Guizhou Moutai has engaged in extensive cultural promotion activities, hosting 225 tasting events and attracting over 15,000 participants [6]. - The company has established a systematic approach to cultural branding, enhancing its international recognition and influence [7]. Overall Impact - Guizhou Moutai's strong financial performance, high dividend payouts, and effective brand and channel strategies collectively reinforce its position as a high-quality asset in the market, contributing to the overall development of the liquor industry [8].