投资评级:买入(首次) 核心观点 中式烟火气，性价比新徽菜龙头进军千店 小菜园(00999) 证券研究报告 酒店餐饮 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.11.20 | 基本数据 | 2025-11-19 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 10.26 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 11.77 | | 每股净资产(元) | 2.02 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.77 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -15% -4% 7% 17% 28% 38% 小菜园 恒生指数 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 周诗琪 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060006 zhousq@ctsec.com 相关报告 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 4,549 | 5,210 | 6,080 | 7,603 | 9, ...

Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan is a rapidly growing mass-market Chinese restaurant chain, focusing on new Huizhou cuisine and emphasizing fresh, healthy dishes prepared on-site to attract a wide customer base [4][5] - The company was founded in April 2013 in Tongling, Anhui, and has expanded significantly, with 673 stores across 14 provinces and 146 cities by the end of 2024 [6][7] - Xiaocaiyuan's business model centers on providing affordable dining experiences, with average meal prices ranging from 50 to 70 yuan [8] Industry Analysis - The Chinese restaurant market has shown resilience, growing from 4.27 trillion yuan in 2018 to 5.29 trillion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.4% [14][15] - The mass-market Chinese dining segment accounts for 88.7% of the total Chinese restaurant market, with a market size of 3.62 trillion yuan in 2023 [19][20] - The market for mass-market dining is expected to continue growing, driven by urbanization, rising disposable incomes, and changing consumer preferences towards quality and experience [23][25] Competitive Strengths - Xiaocaiyuan holds a leading position in the mass-market dining segment, with a revenue of 4.549 billion yuan in 2023, capturing a 0.2% market share [22] - The company emphasizes a standardized operational model, ensuring consistent quality and service across its locations, which enhances customer trust and loyalty [43][45] - A robust supply chain management system, including centralized purchasing and a network of suppliers, allows Xiaocaiyuan to maintain high food quality and reduce costs [46][50] Financial Performance - Xiaocaiyuan's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 5.209 billion yuan in 2024 and 6.070 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 14.5% and 16.5% respectively [1] - The company's net profit is also expected to increase, with projections of 580.6 million yuan in 2024 and 752.5 million yuan in 2025, indicating a net profit growth rate of 9.1% and 29.6% respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.56 yuan in 2024 to 0.64 yuan in 2025, reflecting the company's strong financial outlook [1] Investment Recommendations - Xiaocaiyuan is expected to achieve a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18X in 2025, indicating a favorable investment opportunity as the company expands its store network and improves same-store sales [1] - The company aims to reach 1,000 stores by 2026 and has a long-term goal of 3,000 stores, which will enhance its market presence and operational efficiency [35]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company, Xiaocaiyuan, is a rapidly growing mass-market Chinese dining enterprise focusing on new Huizhou cuisine, with a core philosophy of "delicious and affordable" [5][14] - The Chinese dining market shows strong resilience, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2018 to 2023, expected to reach 8.26 trillion yuan by 2028 [5][34] - Xiaocaiyuan has a significant competitive advantage in the mass-market dining segment, holding a 0.2% market share in the 50-100 yuan price range, ranking first in this category [5][40] Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan has expanded rapidly since opening its first store in Tongling, Anhui in 2013, reaching 673 stores across 14 provinces and 146 cities by the end of 2024, with plans to exceed 800 stores in 2025 [5][14] - The company operates under a direct chain model, ensuring consistent quality and service across its outlets [29] Market Analysis - The mass-market Chinese dining segment, defined as having an average spend of under 100 yuan, accounted for 36.18 billion yuan in 2023, representing 88.7% of the overall Chinese dining market [34][36] - The segment has shown resilience with a CAGR of 3.8% from 2018 to 2023, despite challenges such as the pandemic [36] Competitive Strengths - Xiaocaiyuan's strengths include precise brand positioning, a standardized operational system, strong supply chain integration, and a robust employee incentive mechanism [4][5] - The company has established a centralized kitchen and logistics team, which has helped reduce raw material costs to 29.5% of revenue in the first half of 2025 [4] Financial Performance - Xiaocaiyuan's revenue grew from 2.646 billion yuan in 2021 to 5.21 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 25.3%, while net profit increased from 227 million yuan to 581 million yuan during the same period, with a CAGR of 36.7% [5][8] - The company maintains a gross margin above 65%, with a net margin of approximately 11% [5] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 753 million yuan, 921 million yuan, and 1.122 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.6%, 22.4%, and 21.9% [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price range of HKD 13.40 - 14.30, indicating a potential upside of 32.3% from the latest closing price of HKD 10.47 [7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the Chinese casual dining sector, focusing on cost-effective dining experiences. It has successfully expanded its presence across various provinces, particularly in East China, and aims to continue this trend [1][15]. - The Chinese casual dining market is projected to reach approximately RMB 3.9 trillion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2023 to 2028, indicating significant growth potential in the sector [2]. - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a reported revenue of RMB 5.21 billion in 2024, representing a 14.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 580 million, up 9.1% [1][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates a direct sales model and emphasizes high cost-performance, with an average dining price of RMB 59.2 in 2024. As of the end of 2024, it has 667 stores, with over 80% located in East China [1][24]. Growth Drivers - The growth strategy includes expanding store numbers, improving single-store efficiency, and incubating sub-brands. The company plans to add 130, 160, and 180 new stores in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, aiming for a total of 1,809 stores by 2030 [3][4]. - The average revenue per mature store is estimated at RMB 9 million, with a net profit margin of approximately 14.5% [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 7.7 billion, RMB 9.4 billion, and RMB 11.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 22%, and 19% [4][5]. - The financial metrics indicate a robust growth trajectory, with a revenue CAGR of 25.3% and a net profit CAGR of 35.9% from 2021 to 2024 [39]. Market Positioning - The company maintains a competitive edge through a strong supply chain and a unique partnership model, which supports rapid store expansion and operational efficiency [3][19]. - The casual dining market remains fragmented, with the top five players holding less than 1% market share, suggesting opportunities for brands that can effectively tap into lower-tier markets and enhance online presence [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, 小菜园, has reported significant growth in net profit and plans for further expansion, driven by operational efficiency and cost control measures [1][3]. Financial Performance - The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 360 million and 380 million yuan, a substantial increase from 280 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Revenue figures from 2021 to 2024 show a consistent upward trend: 26.46 billion yuan in 2021, 32.13 billion yuan in 2022, and 45.49 billion yuan in 2023, with 2024 revenue reaching 52.1 billion yuan, a 14.5% year-on-year increase [2]. - Net profit for 2024 is reported at 581 million yuan, reflecting a 9.1% increase compared to the previous year [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company has optimized operational efficiency and cost management, leading to a decrease in employee cost percentage from 29.3% in 2023 to 27.3% in 2024, despite an increase in absolute employee costs due to network expansion [3]. - The number of stores increased from 536 to 667 in 2024, with plans to add approximately 120 more stores in 2025, focusing on the Yangtze River Delta and expanding into new markets such as Shandong, Shaanxi, and Guangdong [1][6]. Revenue Sources - The revenue from dine-in services for 2024 was 31.9 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase, while the takeout business saw a significant growth of 34.2%, rising from 1.49 billion yuan in 2023 to 2 billion yuan in 2024, making up 38.5% of total revenue [4][5]. - The number of takeout orders increased from 18.9 million to 29 million in 2024, indicating a growing demand for delivery services [4]. Future Expansion Plans - The company aims to exceed 1,000 stores by 2026 and has approved a three-year overseas expansion strategy, starting with 1-2 stores in Southeast Asia by 2025 [6]. - Investment in technology will increase, focusing on smart kitchen systems and AI data analysis to enhance operational efficiency and food safety [7].